Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[CougarKing]

A think tank for the DPP (an anti-mainland China party/pro-de jure independence party) weighs in on the threat calculus from the mainland again. They now suggest that Taiwan should reverse-engineer their Dutch-made submarines in service to address one of the 3 areas of focus mentioned in the article.

Defense News

Analysis: Taiwan Think Tank Issues Blue Paper on China's Ambitions

TAIPEI — In a marked departure from past efforts, the opposition party’s think tank, New Frontier Foundation, released a remarkable report on China’s military ambitions against Taiwan.

(...)- EDITED

The report states that Taiwan must raise its defense budget “to the level of 3% of GDP” and build an effective “national defense with Taiwanese characteristics.” Taiwanese characteristics emphasizes relying more on domestic defense industry sources for military arms and equipment.

The paper outlines three priorities: cyber defense, indigenous submarine production and improving air defense capabilities.

On cyber defense, the paper wants to raise the status of MINDEF’s Information and Electronic Warfare Command in the organization chart. It also wants to attract more information warfare personnel, develop asymmetrical cyber operational concepts and equipment, and strengthen its cyber “front lines.”

On the indigenous submarine issue, the paper recommends an immediate two-stage build program that allows for “conserving the integrity of the Navy’s current submarine force” but also “activating a long-term development cycle of ship design and research and development, critical equipment acquisition, testing and operation, and upgrade.”

York said the best way to proceed was to reverse-engineer the two Dutch-built Zwaardvis-class submarines sold to Taiwan in the 1980s. The US offered to sell Taiwan eight diesel-powered attack submarines in 2001, but the US has been unable to develop the infrastructure needed to manufacturer diesel-submarines.

(...)

China’s air warfare capabilities continue to expand with the production of more advanced fourth-generation fighters, the roll-out of two types of fifth-generation stealthy fighters, the replacement of aging ballistic missiles with more precise missiles, and the fielding of more advanced land-attack cruise missiles.


For this reason, the paper suggests Taiwan procure unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV), go forward on fighter aircraft upgrades, refine precision strike munitions, and develop next-generation fighters, including the procurement of “vertical and/or short take-off and landing” (V/STOL) fighters.


In the past, Taiwan has expressed interest in buying refurbished AV-8 Harrier V/STOL jump-jets and has received US government briefings on the F-35B short-takeoff vertical-landing (STOVL) fighter.

On UCAV technologies, Taiwan’s military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology has produced a variety of UAVs, including designs for a stealthy UCAV, but has long suffered budgeting problems and a lack of support from the Taiwan military, which has pushed for the procurement of US-made UAVs.

Despite the report’s recommendations, the overall conclusions of the report are dire.

The PLA attained the operational capability to respond to a Taiwan contingency in 2007, surpassed Taiwan’s forces in quantity and quality in 2010, and continues working to secure decisive capabilities for a large-scale operation against Taiwan by 2020.

“The expansive range of the PLA’s air defense missiles has already embraced Taiwan within a de facto air defense identification zone, and when the 5th generation fighters enter into service by 2020, the PRC [China] will achieve clear airpower superiority over Taiwan,” said the report.

(...)- EDITED

 

[a_majoor]

As an interesting aside, the ROK has developed their own advanced weaponry, including a home built version of the "OCIW" combined rifle/grenade launcher (cancelled by the United States), the very advanced K2 Black Panther tank and the K-21 ICV made largely from composite materials. Perhaps Taiwan might consider shopping closer to home?

As well, given the scale and scope of the threat (800+ ballistic missiles for AA/AD, for example), they might consider looking at different technologies such as the Aegis cruiser (which is also operated by the Japanese), ABM weapons ranging from the long range interceptors deployed in Alaska to the Israeli "Iron Dome" close in defense system. Participating in advanced technology developments like rail guns and high energy lasers, such as the ones now in advanced prototype development by the USN would also go a long way to protecting the island without being unduly provocative (you can't use the lasers to shoot back at China, for example).

 

[MilEME09]

As an interesting aside, the ROK has developed their own advanced weaponry, including a home built version of the "OCIW" combined rifle/grenade launcher (cancelled by the United States), the very advanced K2 Black Panther tank and the K-21 ICV made largely from composite materials. Perhaps Taiwan might consider shopping closer to home?

As well, given the scale and scope of the threat (800+ ballistic missiles for AA/AD, for example), they might consider looking at different technologies such as the Aegis cruiser (which is also operated by the Japanese), ABM weapons ranging from the long range interceptors deployed in Alaska to the Israeli "Iron Dome" close in defense system. Participating in advanced technology developments like rail guns and high energy lasers, such as the ones now in advanced prototype development by the USN would also go a long way to protecting the island without being unduly provocative (you can't use the lasers to shoot back at China, for example).

Problem is many are afraid to sell to Taiwan as to not harm relations with China, not that Japan has much more to loose these days

 

[a_majoor]

True enough, but as China alienates her neighbours attitudes will start to change. The other possible wild card is Israel, since she has a high tech defense industry and a desire to tap new markets. Israel has the elements of a fully layered ABM system which Taiwan could consider as a way of neutralizing Chinese AA/AD weapons (everything from long range "Arrow" interceptors to "David's Sling" and "Iron Dome" for mid to short range interception).

 

[CougarKing]

A glimpse at China's WZ-10 attack helicopter...

Military helicopter crashes in Shaanxi, both pilots suffer light injuries

(globaltimes.cn)
2014-3-4

The helicopter, a WZ-10, fell on farmland in Gushi town in Weinan around 2 pm. At 2:36 pm, the Weinan branch under the general team of the Shaanxi provincial public security firefighters received the call for help and sent about 10 firefighters to the scene, an official surnamed Wang from the branch's publicity department told the Global Times on Tuesday.

"When our fighters came to the scene, the two pilots had been saved by local residents and were sent to a nearby hospital," Wang said, adding that she did not have further details.
<snipped>
The news portal deduced that the pilots had conducted an emergency landing, and its special design helped ensure the survival of the crew members, sina.com said.

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Chinese WZ-10 attack helo crashes (janes.com)

attack helicopter that crashed in Shaanxi province on 4 March. (Xinhua News Agency)

 

[CougarKing]

China conducts an amphibious exercise including all its Type 71 LPDs: a preparations for a future amphibious assault on the Philippine island of Pagasa in the Spratlys?

China conducts full-scale island assault exercise with massive amphibious transport vessels

http://eastasiaintel.com/china-conducts-full-scale-island-assault-exercise-with-massive-amphibious-transport-vessels/

For the first time, all of the PLA Navy’s three gigantic Type 071 Amphibious Transport Dock vessels were deployed last week in a large naval exercise in the tense South China Sea, simulating in full an island-taking assault.

< Edited >

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http://nosint.blogspot.com/2014/03/china-conducts-full-scale-island.html

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is an interesting infographic from the Wall Street Journal which shows China's reported spending in 2012 and 2013 and the estimates for 2014:

The article says:

A quick glance tells you a few important things about China’s budget priorities:
[o]The military, already a beneficiary of Beijing’s largesse, will get even more love this year.
[o]Social spending isn’t far behind, in a nod to the rising expectations of China’s increasingly wealthy and educated population.
[o]Affordable housing and the environment – two stated priorities of the Chinese government – saw spending fall last year. Beijing appears to want to change that.
One big caveat to these numbers: China has changed the way it presents its spending on public security, one of the country’s biggest priorities amid rising public frustration over everything from pollution to the wealth gap to ethnic tension. In past years the number was even higher than defense spending. It isn’t clear exactly how the figure has changed.[/quote

 

[FAL]

I can't help but wonder if the spending on China's "defence" is to "defend" itself against a popular uprising. When enough poor people have had their noses rubbed in the fecal matter of the rich and told to like it, they tend to acquire an "I have nothing to lose, and you have everything to lose" mentality as happened in Cambodia. I used to wonder what would motivate a populace to murder every single educated person in a country that they could get their hands on.

Then I saw a recent documentary about the obnoxiously ostentatious behavior of Cambodia's rich people today, and I wondered if they would never learn from the lessons of the past. Even in Vietnam it made the news recently when one of the rich people's obnoxious law-flouting sons actually had to do some jail time or suffer some punishment for his dangerous driving of his expensive exotic car. It made the news because it was so unusual for the rich to ever have to be accountable.

In China, the ratio of increasingly discontented "little people" to privileged commie party members and their cronies is far greater than it was in Cambodia, I would imagine, by dint of sheer population.

While China rattles the saber over Taiwan, it is not paradise at home.

 

[Journeyman]

...... it made the news recently when one of the rich people's obnoxious law-flouting sons actually had to do some jail time or suffer some punishment for his dangerous driving of his expensive exotic car.

That was Bieber.

 

[FAL]

Nah, not Bieber. But, I think that "recently" may be more elastic for me than some. It was a few years back.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Nah, not Bieber. But, I think that "recently" may be more elastic for me than some. It was a few years back.

I think you're thinking of Bo Guagua, Bo Xilai's wastrel son. His quite conspicuous lifestyle, and that of others red princes and (and princesses) is a cause of some resentment. But I don't think that resentment translates into much political dissatisfaction ~ no more, anyway, than what we detect in resentment towards the children of rich and powerful people in the West.

Some politicians, like Supreme Leader Xi Jinping, have children who maintain low profiles and, when they do appear in public, are doing volunteer, disaster relief work ~ which, of course, does no go unnoticed. 

But, if I recall, Bo Guagua was tooling around Beijing in an expensive red sports car, squiring the daughter of the US Ambassador around to exclusive and very expensive clubs.

 

[Hisoyaki]

I can't help but wonder if the spending on China's "defence" is to "defend" itself against a popular uprising. When enough poor people have had their noses rubbed in the fecal matter of the rich and told to like it, they tend to acquire an "I have nothing to lose, and you have everything to lose" mentality as happened in Cambodia. I used to wonder what would motivate a populace to murder every single educated person in a country that they could get their hands on.

Then I saw a recent documentary about the obnoxiously ostentatious behavior of Cambodia's rich people today, and I wondered if they would never learn from the lessons of the past. Even in Vietnam it made the news recently when one of the rich people's obnoxious law-flouting sons actually had to do some jail time or suffer some punishment for his dangerous driving of his expensive exotic car. It made the news because it was so unusual for the rich to ever have to be accountable.

The problem with this thesis is Norodom Sihanouk...Prior to the  coup in Cambodia, the Khmer Rouges never numbered more then 2000 fighters. It was only after he joined as figurehead that the movement gained in importance.

Until then,the Left was ironically gathered under someone who was known for corruption and to use public funds for huge (and fairly useless) public displays.

By comparaison, Son Ngoc Thanh's Khmer Serai had 8000 troops under his command in 1968.

Inconspicuous display of wealth has been the norm throughout history. In Cambodia in particular, the tradition is that of god kings.  It's only in North America that we have an egalitarian culture.

There are polls in China that unlike the West, the Chinese are convinced that their country is on the rise economically speaking.If anything, the internet has given rise to nationalists.

If the Cultural revolution could not end capitalist tendencies, then pretty much nothing will.

I am certain that most people's instincts (both east and west) lie in following a hierarchy without thinking.Isn't God after all the ultimate expression of perfect government?  Most aren't interested in the details in politics and will bend the way of the winning party. As Mao once said, political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.

For all these reasons,  I don't believe that the Chinese government is going to fall anytime soon.

 

[Nemo888]

The irony in this was so delicious, the last actual commies in China and how the regime is dealing with them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/world/asia/communism-is-the-goal-at-a-commune-but-chinese-officials-are-not-impressed.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

LINCANG, China — Members of this idyllic utopian commune tucked away in the mountains of southwest China share an agrarian life that would probably have delighted Chairman Mao: Every day they volunteer six hours to work the fields, feed their jointly owned chickens and prepare enough food to fill every belly in the community. The bounty of their harvest is divided equally and apparently without strife, part of a philosophy that emphasizes selflessness and egalitarian living over money and materialism.

“What we’re doing here is basically communism,” said Xue Feng, 57, the soft-spoken founder of Shengmin Chanyuan, or New Oasis for Life, whose 150 members include illiterate peasants and big-city corporate refugees. “People do what they can and get what they need.”

But Marxism doesn’t often look like that in modern-day China, and New Oasis has unnerved local officials in Yunnan, a lush semitropical province that borders Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar.

Months of official intimidation and acts of sabotage have destroyed New Oasis’s water and electrical supply and driven many residents away, emptying two of the group’s three communes in the province.

 

[CougarKing]

CCP princeling brats aside...

Isn't anyone surprised the PLA's own home-made Predator UAV copies haven't been used to take these guys out just yet?

Reuters

From his Pakistan hideout, Uighur leader vows revenge on China

Reuters

DERA ISMAIL KHAN/ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Entrenched in secret mountain bases on Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, Uighur fighters are gearing up for retribution against China to avenge the deaths of comrades in Beijing's crackdown on a separatist movement, their leader told Reuters.

China, Pakistan's only major ally in the region, has long urged Islamabad to weed out what it says are militants from its western region of Xinjiang, who are holed up in a lawless tribal belt, home to a lethal mix of militant groups, including the Taliban and al Qaeda.

A mass stabbing at a train station in the Chinese city of Kunming two weeks ago, in which at least 29 people were killed, has put a new spotlight on the largely Muslim Uighur ethnic minority from Xinjiang, where Beijing says armed groups seek to establish an independent state called East Turkestan.

(...EDITED)

 

[Edward Campbell]

CCP princeling brats aside...

Isn't anyone surprised the PLA's own home-made Predator UAV copies haven't been used to take these guys out just yet?

Reuters

I can think of a number of reasons why China might eschew drone strikes:

    1. Their drones are as capable as we might think;

    2. They are allowing their soft power offensive in Pakistan (and elsewhere) to dictate policy and it is useful propaganda to say, "See!?! We don't kill innocent civilians with drones."

    3. 'Out of sight, out of mind,' they, the Chinese, are happy to execute a few Uighurs every now and again, but they cannot be bothered chasing them down in some remote mountain hideaways; or

    4. They want to give the Uighurs time and space to plan and launch a real, dirty offensive which China can, then, punish brutally and massively.

Remember the old insurgent manual that said that they would try to provoke the "forces of order" into more and more brutal acts of repression? The aim was, still is, to shift poplar opinion away from the "forces of order" and towards the insurgents because the latter are more sympathetic. The Chinese helped write that book. It may be that they want the Uighurs to commit more and more and worse and worse atrocities because that will, eventually, excuse a Chinese campaign that will kill tens of thousands of young Uighur men and drive the others out of China.

 

[Rifleman62]

Sideline:

Macau....!!!! China
                                   
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=uI2kO4qTi80&vq=medium

 

[CougarKing]

Sideline:

Macau....!!!! China
                                   
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=uI2kO4qTi80&vq=medium

Chinese people call Macau "Ao Men" (澳门) in Mandarin.

A couple of great places to visit there are the Macau Grand Prix museum and the Macau maritime museum, not to mention the former Portuguese forts.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I n Macau you rally, really have to see this: the stroll in the Lisboa Hotel complex. It goes on, day and night, with, as far as I can tell, the active consent and support of the hotel. (Which is in contrast to others like Wynne, MGM Grand, etc.) Some, a few, speak English but most a girls from mainland China who speak only one or two Chinese languages/dialects.

 

[Edward Campbell]

This report, from BCS News indicates that the US is trying some soft power/diplomacy of its own.

Mrs Obama is a bit more of a rock star than were either Mrs Clinton or Mrs Bush and I expect the Chinese to "like" her.

 

[CougarKing]

China's interest in the Ukraine:

Inside China: Why Putin’s intervention in Ukraine is bad news for China
Thursday, March 13, 2014

Washington Times

On March 1, two tugboats hurriedly towed a nearly completed behemoth out of Ukraine’s Feodosiya shipyard on the Crimean Peninsula. It was loaded quickly onto a huge cargo ship that set sail to China.

The behemoth was the second of four Zubr-class air-cushioned landing craft, or LCAC, ordered by the Chinese navy from former Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych's government. The vessel is the world’s largest hovercraft, and is essential for amphibious assault landings along beaches and coastlines.

The Ukrainian interim government’s rapid delivery of the unfinished LCAC, without conducting sea trials, was aimed at avoiding a potential freeze on arms transfers to China if Russian or pro-Russian forces took over Crimea.

< Edited >

There are two reasons why China wants so many weapons from Ukraine. First, the arms are cheap, often costing Beijing a fraction of what it would have to pay for similar systems from Russia, China’s other main source of arms imports.

Second, and more important, China can get Soviet- or Russian-designed advanced weapons without Moscow complaining that Beijing is violating Russian intellectual property rights.

< Edited >

In recent years, Russia has become increasingly perturbed by Beijing’s possession of its military technologies obtained through Ukraine. In 2011, Ukrainian journalist Anna Babinets wrote that “Russia’s prime goal is to get rid of Ukraine as an arms dealer so that she can increase the price of her own military equipment and keep supplying it to Asia and Africa, without fear of competition from Ukraine.”

That is why Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Ukraine, especially the defense industry-heavy Crimea, is bad news for China.

For Beijing, a loophole in the low-cost, easy-access arms market may soon be sealed by the Russians.

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