Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[CougarKing]

Apparently the ROK is also considering small aircraft carriers as well.

You have heard of South Korea's Dokdo class, have you not? They already have "carriers", albeit LHDs.

And before Japan's Hyuga and Izumo class ships were even built, Japan was operating its Osumi class assault ships/LHDs.

 

[Edward Campbell]

S.M.A.: don't get me wrong, the Chinese military in important. It was, for generations, the only "check and balance" on Mao Zedong and even now it is one of only two, the other being a growing but still weak capitalist class, that "checks and balances" Xi Jinping.

The military is also vital as a sword aimed outwards at any who would threaten China's vital interests, beginning with the reunification of China and Taiwan. It also helps to persuade the region that China, not America, is its best guarantor of peace and stability.

The aircraft carriers and new jets do matter, but they are not, in my opinion, the "main effort." That is the "soft power" or charm offensive. The Chinese want it all ... they just don't want to fight for it.

For at least 2,500 years China has been preoccupied with the notion of winning without fighting. It's an important cultural artifact ~ even in the staff colleges.

 

[CougarKing]

The aircraft carriers and new jets do matter

Speaking of which...


Below is a repost of another forum which discusses the 2nd Chinese carrier being built.

Construction just began on this carrier, which should be 90,000-110,000 tonnes (according to a different source than the article), but whose design is based on the cancelled Soviet Ulyanosk design and thus derivative of the smaller Kuznetsov class. At the very bottom is a 3 modeller's rendering of the 2nd Chinese carrier.

Section of aircraft carrier built last year to attract aircraft carrier contract

The 2nd session of the 12th Liaoning Provincial People’s Congress is now being held in Shenyang. Wang Min, Liaoning Party secretary and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Congress disclosed in the morning group discussion today that construction of China’s second homegrown aircraft carrier has started at Dalian Shipyard and is expected to be completed in 6 years. In the future, China will at least have 4 aircraft carriers. In addition, the shipyard is responsible for building two new-version 052D Aegis missile destroyers.

That has been the first official disclosure ever of the construction of a China-made aircraft carrier.

However, Wang has given no information about the carrier: whether it is conventional or nuclear powered and whether there will be catapult to help taking off.

Chinese military expert Li Jie believes that the new aircraft carrier will be bigger than the Liaoning with a displacement of 70,000 to 90,000 tons. It will be a conventional one without catapult so that it will be easier to build.

He believes that China’s third aircraft carrier will be bigger to carry more aircrafts and allow the installation of a catapult.

Another expert Du Wenlong also believes that China’s first homegrown aircraft carrier will be a conventional one.

Previously CSIC (China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation) said in December 2013 that it had received two super shipbuilding contracts.

Source: news.ifeng.com “Liaoning Provincial Party Secretary confirms China’s homegrown aircraft carrier is being built in Liaoning to be completed in 6 years”

 

[CougarKing]

This article reports on only part of the trend: it doesn't mention the waves of foreign-born Chinese from other developed Western nations such as Canada and Australia and affluent overseas Chinese/Hua Qiao(华侨) from other Southeast Asian nations such as Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

While the Fujianese/Hokien speakers are featured in this article, there are also waves that go to other Chinese regions. The return waves from the Cantonese diaspora across the world back to Hong Kong, Macau or the southern parts of Guangdong might even be larger than the ones in Fujian. 

Christian Science Monitor

A test for one Chinese province: How to educate an influx of US-born children

At least 10,000 children born in the US to Chinese parents have been sent back to Fujian to be raised. But because they maintain US citizenship, they're ineligible for China's public schools

(...)- SNIPPED

The children are sent back to China because their parents, mostly illegal immigrants in restaurant and shopkeeping jobs in the United States, work long hours and can’t afford day care. The children often don’t see their parents until they’re old enough to return to the country of their birth in order to start grade school.

In a single district that encompasses Houyu and 200 other villages, there are 5,000 such children. In the provincial capital of Fuzhou, they number between 10,000 and 20,000, according to estimates made by officials in 2012.

For this village and others like it in southern Fujian Province, the “left-behind foreign kids” represent a challenge and an opportunity for educators. Because China does not allow dual citizenship, the US-born children are not eligible for local public schools. Instead, they attend private schools set up by villagers especially for them.

VILLAGE-RUN SCHOOLS

A 2012 report from Fuzhou city and district officials says many of the kindergartens run by villagers for the left-behind foreign children are not up to the standards widely followed by government schools. For instance, village-run schools often do not require teachers to be licensed.

Teachers also struggle with educating children whose parents aren’t always vested in readying their children for the transition to a foreign land.

“What the parents care about the most is livelihood,” says Lu Fabin, a principal at Houyu Primary School and Kindergarten. “There is very little they can do about their children’s education. And some don’t care that much anyways.”

One of his students is four-year-old Zeng Huliu, all bundled up in pink against the unseasonal chill in this southern coastal province. After lunch, Huliu paced around in the playground outside her kindergarten before taking her nap. She last saw her parents in central Florida two days ago – over Skype.

“Sometimes, when she’s unhappy, she doesn’t say much,” says her grandmother Lu Ying, stuffing a peeled grape into her palm. “But then her parents can’t tell because they aren’t around.”

Grueling restaurant jobs leave Huliu’s parents little time to call home, let alone take care of her. So as soon as she was weaned off her mother's milk at 10 months old, Huliu was sent back to the village. Her parents plan on bringing her to Florida next year.

Like many who left the village, Huliu’s parents entered the US illegally; they cannot travel abroad freely. Her father left home in 1998 at age 20 to work at a Chinese restaurant run by close relatives in the US, and her mother waits tables at another Chinese restaurant.

EMIGRATION TRADITION

Among the Chinese, the coastal Fujianese are famous for their wanderlust. Many prominent ethnic Chinese in Southeast Asia trace their roots here. Beginning in the 1970s, boatloads of Fujianese were smuggled across the Pacific to toil in Chinatowns in the US, mostly on the Eastern seaboard. Even after China’s socialist economy was transformed by private capital, Fujianese still looked overseas for opportunities.

The tradition of emigration runs so deep that many Fujianese villages have set up friendship clubs in the US to pool money for the benefit of fellow villagers. The club’s name is emblazoned on many of the marble plaques in Houyu, which has at least 3,000 locals in the US, three times the size of the village’s current population.

Jiang Huizhen, who has 20 years' experience in preschool teaching, expanded her kindergarten two years ago in a refurbished school building on donated land in the nearby Guantou township.

Now, out of her 200 students, nearly 4 in 5 are born overseas, mostly in the US. She has worked hard to engage the absentee parents in school life. They can see their child through a live feed from the school’s playground and can chat with the teachers on microblog sites.

The teachers often find out a child is being pulled from school on short notice. Five-year-old Ou Binqian is to go by the end of this month, before the Chinese New Year’s. “I’ve been to the US before,” says Binqian. “My dad took me to the amusement park. I had classes to learn English.”

Ms. Jiang says teaching English isn’t her teachers’ strong suit, but it is more important to inculcate in the children a sense of independence and responsibility. For midday nap, every child is taught to fold their blanket and put away their clothes.

“No matter where they go, inevitably there’ll be a sense of strangeness,” Jiang says. “What all kids need is a sense of security.”

 

[CougarKing]

Perhaps it was inevitable, but somehow it might be too early to see this as the beginning of the Chinese economic crash that George Soros predicted.  :

The Diplomat

China’s Economy Loses Steam

China’s economy grew 7.7% in 2013, and is expected to continue slowing in 2014.

By Zachary Keck

January 20, 2014

China’s economy grew by 7.7 percent in 2013, the same rate as last year, which was the slowest since 1999, according to new data released by the government.

On Monday the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released fourth quarter economic figures, which showed the economy growing by an annualized rate of 7.7 percent from October to December, down from the 7.8 growth recorded during the third quarter when the government ordered an investment-heavy mini-stimulus to revive falling numbers.

The annual GDP growth was also 7.7 percent, slightly higher than the 7.5 percent that Chinese government officials indicated would be the floor rate that they would accept. The 4Q growth was also slightly higher than the 7.6 percent economists expected.

Most economists, however, expect growth to continue to slow in 2014 as China tries to transition to an economic model less reliant on investment. The Financial Times estimates that China will grow 7.4 percent in 2014, which would be the slowest growth since 1990 in the aftermath of Tiananmen Square.

China’s post-financial crisis credit boom has fueled growth over the past few years but also created unsustainable imbalances in the economy that Chinese policymakers are seeking to correct. So far Xi Jinping’s administration has only marginally reined in credit expansion.

“”I don’t see any evidence of an (economic) rebalancing last year. It doesn’t look like there’s any reduction in the current account surplus and the savings and investment gap probably didn’t change,” Tim Condon of ING in Singapore told Reuters.

Fixed asset investment did slow to a 19.6 percent annual growth rate, down from 19.9 percent in the first 11 months of 2013 and 1.1 percent lower than in 2012. Aggregate financing was also down in December from the year before but held steady when compared with November.

Growth in retail sales in December was also 13.6 percent, down from 13.7 percent in November and industrial production slowed to 9.7 percent, from 10 percent the month before. China also missed its export target of 8 percent in 2013.

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan, told the Financial Times ““The headline GDP growth figure for 2013 is strong, but momentum is clearly slowing, with infrastructure investment in December coming in quite weak. We expect investment to slow further this year, particularly in real estate and infrastructure.”

Both the Wall Street Journal and the Global Times note that property sales helped propel economic growth in 2013. “Total property sales rose 26.3% to 8.14 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) in 2013, up from the 10% gain recorded in 2012,” the Wall Street Journal remarked. Property sales and pricing varied widely from city to city. The Chinese government has sought to cool the property market, particularly in cities like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai where housing costs are often out of the reach of ordinary Chinese. Investment in property development also rose 19.8 percent in 2003, nearly 4 percent above the growth rate in 2012. Meanwhile, the People’s Daily reported on Monday that Beijing expects revenue from land sales in January to hit a new monthly high.

There appears to be growing concern abroad over the health of China’s financial system amid rapidly rising debt accumulation. The International Monetary Fund released a report last week that said China’s debt is higher than official figures and, while still at manageable levels, China is now “more vulnerable to a macroeconomic shock” because of fiscal imbalances. Newsweek also featured a story in its weekly magazine this week titled “Beijing’s Bubble.”

Meanwhile, Chinese officials reportedly took steps to begin better regulating the shadow banking system earlier this month, and there are signs that lending is slowing.

 

[CougarKing]

The issue of the local Chinese abuse of foreign maids/domestic workers (mostly Filipino and Indonesian) in Hong Kong, which I already pointed out in another post about the similar situation in Singapore, comes to the surface again when a Hong Kong employer almost kills an Indonesian maid.

Hong Kong's domestic worker abuse

Indonesian maid tells her story of violence, while Amnesty says thousands live in similar conditions.


Erwiana was recruited in Indonesia by PT Graha Ayukarsa, with whom she said she agreed to have HK$2,543 ($328) deducted from her HK$3,920 ($505) monthly wage, until a HK$18,000 ($2,320) recruitment fee was paid off. Hong Kong's minimum wage is HK$4,010 ($517) and it is illegal to impose recruitment fees of more than 10 percent on the first month's wage.

According to Erwiana the beatings were sporadic at first, but slowly became a daily ordeal. Sometimes she was told it was because she'd failed to hear an instruction, sometimes apparently for no reason at all.

"She would beat me with a lot of different implements, most usually with the handle of my mop. She would hit me all over, but mostly on my head," she said. "I had to work for 21 hours a day. I didn't have my own room so whenever I could sleep I would sleep on the floor.

"If [one of her two teenage] children found me sleeping when I wasn't supposed to be they'd tell her and she'd beat me again."

In the final weeks of her ordeal, Erwiana said blood and puss ran from her wounds prompting her employer to complain that it was staining the carpet. She said her boss wrapped her wounds in bandages and plastic bags, but it still seeped out. Erwiana said a few days later she was driven to the airport.

(...)

Al Jazeera

 

[a_majoor]

Another article that makes you pause. Since so many of the metrics are opaque to Western investors and analysts, something like this lurking in the background would be a terrible surprise for a great many people and governments:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/is-chinas-historic-credit-bubble-about-to-pop/283174/

Is China's Historic Credit Bubble About to Pop?
In five years, China's shadow banks have increased credit from 120 to 190 percent of GDP—a bigger run-up than the U.S. housing bubble.
MATTHEW O'BRIENJAN 19 2014, 9:00 AM ET

A historic credit boom. Unregulated lenders promising high, "risk-free" returns. And surging property prices making it all go.

Is this the U.S. in 2004, or China in 2014?

When you think about China's economy, you probably think about manufacturing. The past 30 years, cheap labor and a cheap currency have turned it into the world's workshop. That is, China has gotten rich—or at least richer—by making things and selling them to rich countries.

Then Lehman happened. Foreign demand disappeared, and China had to find something to replace it. But more than that, it had to find something to replace its old export-led growth model. Even without a once-in-three-generations financial crisis, that model would have run out, because China's reservoir of cheap labor is running out. Its urbanization rate has already peaked—fewer people are moving to the cities than before—and its working-age population has too, in part due to its one-child policy. That means there aren't as many people competing for jobs—so wages will rise. They already have. But if they rise too much, Chinese goods won't be as competitive with the new low-wage factories in, say, Vietnam. Or even the medium-wage ones in Mexico.

Meet the New Model (Actually Different from the Old Model)

The term of art is that China needs to "rebalance."

It needs to move from export-led to consumption-led growth. Which means it needs to scrap its system of subsidies that transfer money from households to companies—everything from caps on the interest rates banks can offer customers to its artificially-weak currency. But these aren't easy things to do. It's not just that the big exporters are politically powerful. It's that the government is worried about doing anything that would hurt growth short-term, even if it would help long-term.

China is getting rich by building the things it needs to be rich.

So there haven't been any big reforms. There's been a big credit bubble instead. Local governments and developers have gone on a borrowing binge the past five years to build new infrastructure and new cities, including ghost ones. In other words, China is getting rich now by building the things it needs to be rich, and putting it all on the credit card. The result, as the ratings agency Fitch points out, has been a bigger credit increase relative to GDP than just about anywhere else in history. As you can see in the chart below from Credit Suisse, total credit shot up from around 120 percent of GDP in 2008 to 190 percent today—most of it from so-called "shadow banks" that aren't regulated. In comparison, U.S. credit "only" went up 40 percentage points of GDP in the five years before the housing bubble popped.

Nobody knows how much we should worry about China's shadow banks, because nobody knows much about them. Not even the people buying their bonds. Reuters, for example, looked into one shadow bank product called "Golden Elephant No. 38" that promises a 7.2 percent return, but doesn't say what's backing the security. After some digging, Reuters found out it was an almost-abandoned housing project in a rural province. This might sound like a scare story, but it's actually a fairly typical one. They looked at 50 other products, and didn't find much better—or any—disclosure.

But it's hard to generalize too much, because China's shadow banks are so diverse. To name a few, there are trusts, wealth management products (WMPs), local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), guarantors, and pawn shops. Some of them are actually pretty sober lenders who fill the credit void for small companies that can't get any from big, state-owned banks—for a high enough interest rate, of course. Some of them are just credit conduits for local governments that are barred from borrowing directly from banks. And some of them sure look like semi-glorified Ponzi schemes. But all of them promise better returns than people can get from traditional banks, which are required to offer meager interest rates so exporters can borrow more cheaply.

Is This Time Different?

What happens if the shadow-bank boom turns to bust? Bad, bad things.

The Chinese government would presumably bail out any state-owned banks and companies that got into trouble, but not the shadow banks. It would leave them to die. In fact, the central bank has been trying to kill—or at least rein in—the riskiest of these underground lenders by engineering three credit crunches the past half-year (along with looking for ways to regulate them under control).

But it's a case of careful what you wish for. If too many shadow lenders go under, China's credit-dependent economy might slow down too much. Of course, this might happen no matter what the government does. Shadow banks have made so many loans the past five years that it's hard to believe a lot of them won't go bad. They can borrow more money to try to hide any losses, but that wouldn't be easy if inflation and interest rates rise. The worst of the worst would go bust, and people might panic once they discover that their guaranteed returns were neither. They might already be. China's biggest bank just announced that it won't make investors whole after it sold them a trust product called "Credit Equals Gold #1"—yes, that's really what it's called—that looks likely to lose money. It's China's version of Wall Street selling people crappy CDOs it told them were risk-free.

The good news is the rest of the world isn't exposed to China's financial system the way they were to ours. But the bad news is the rest of the world is exposed to China's economy. A "hard landing" there would also mean a hard landing in the countries that sell China the raw materials it needs for its construction boom. It wouldn't be a 2008-style crash, but it would knee-cap global growth just when things look like they might be taking off.

Maybe capitalism with Chinese characteristics isn't so different from our own.

 

[CougarKing]

Two updates: Beijing's "soft power" campaign won't work if it is always perceived to be a bully, especially by smaller neighbours.

China's bullying economic diplomacy may backfire: experts

By Felicia Sonmez | AFP News – 4 hours ago

Mountains of Norwegian salmon left rotting at port. A beachfront resort in Palau abandoned before completion. A sluggish response to a devastating Philippine typhoon: crossing China's "red lines" can have painful economic consequences.

Beijing is looking to build up its political and diplomatic status as a "major responsible country" commensurate with its global economic position, and improve its cultural reach worldwide.

But experts say Beijing's tactical moves towards smaller countries risk backfiring against its broader strategy.

Beijing has sought to punish Norway since the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to jailed dissident and pro-democracy activist Liu Xiaobo -- despite Oslo having no control over the prize committee's decisions.

Strict new import controls left Norwegian salmon wasting away in Chinese warehouses, and its market share in the country, once 92 percent, plummeted to 29 percent last year.

musical starring Norwegian 2009 Eurovision winner Alexander Rybak had its tour cancelled, and Norwegians are excluded from China's 72-hour transit visa schemes.

"The 'bully boy' tactics China has adopted, especially with regard to small nations such as Norway... are typical of a passive-aggressive kind of personality," Phil Mead, a British businessman who helps small Chinese companies in the European market, told AFP.

Such behaviour makes Beijing "look petty and spiteful in the eyes of the world", Mead said in a blog post.

Yahoo News

And another update on the aviation front:

China developing world's largest amphibious plane
2014-01-19 (wantchinatimes.com)

The Jiaolong-600 is designed to have a cruise speed of 555 kilometers per hour and a maximum range of 5,300 kilometers, and can draw 20 metric tonnes of water in just 12 seconds, CNS said, adding that the plane can carry up to 50 people during rescue missions.

China began developing the Jiaolong-600 in 2009 as the last generation of amphibious aircraft in the Harbin SH-5 range — which entered into service during the 1980s — no longer meets the demand for rescue missions.
<snipped>
Demand in China for the Jiaolong-600 is estimated to be 60 units, while a different model for the overseas market is also expected to be announced, according to CNS.

 

[CougarKing]

An update on the PLA's 2nd artillery/ICBM force:

Defense News

Military: China Conducts Long-Range Nuclear Missile Drill
Jan. 23, 2014 - 03:28PM  |  By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

BEIJING — China’s military has released images of an intercontinental ballistic missile with enough range to reach the United States, as Beijing is involved in a series of rows threatening to embroil Washington.

The pictures of Chinese soldiers test-firing a Dongfeng-31 missile, which is said by experts to be able to carry nuclear warheads 8,000 kilometers (4,960 miles), appeared in the People’s Liberation Army Daily newspaper on Tuesday.

Further images showing soldiers dressed in protective suits, suggesting that the drill was simulating the launch of an armed warhead, were also posted on the sohu.com news portal, attributed to the newspaper.

Sohu.com said it was the first time that images of such an exercise had been released.

The images could not be found on the PLA Daily’s website when checked by AFP on Thursday.

China is embroiled in a series of territorial disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea, and is locked in a row with Japan in the East China Sea over islands administered by Tokyo and claimed by Beijing.

The US has a security alliance with Japan and Vice President Joe Biden said last month that a strategic shift to Asia would continue.

 

[CougarKing]

In this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Financial Times, we have a repeat of my warning that, while neither China nor Japan wants a war some local miscalculation, which could lead to combat, albeit not, in my opinion, a real war, is almost inevitable:

Speaking of a future war between China and Japan being almost inevitable...

Parallels between 1914 and 2014? But with China and Japan going to war this year instead of the Allied vs. Central Powers back in 1914?

Roubini doom scenario: It looks like 1914 again

quote:

With many parts of the world gearing up to commemorate the one hundredth anniversary of the start of the First World War, Nouriel Roubini has solidified his hold on the title "Dr. Doom" by suggesting parallels between 2014 and 1914.

There may be no Austro-Hungarian empire or Archduke Franz Ferdinand, but Roubini tweeted this from the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos today:


#wef14 many speakers compare 2014 to 1914 when WWI broke out & no one expected it. A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?


1:42 AM - 23 Jan 2014

(...)

Yahoo Finance link

 

[CougarKing]

A Chinese nuclear umbrella for her allies?

China’s Nuclear Parasol


(thediplomat.com)


Quote

The initial reporting of the pact by Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, did not use the phrase “nuclear umbrella,” but instead said that through the pact, China is providing Ukraine with a “security guarantee.” According to Wu Dahui, a professor at the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, the agreement signed in December does not represent a departure from China’s 1994 pledge that it would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. According to Wu, the parallels Western commentators are drawing between the wording of the agreement and the “nuclear umbrella” the U.S. extends to its allies in the Asia-Pacific represents a misunderstanding. The security guarantee of the new pact is simply a manifestation of Beijing’s global nonproliferation responsibilities enshrined under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

There is no question that China recognizes value in the concept of a nuclear umbrella. According to Major General Zhu Chenghu, a professor at China’s National Defense University in Beijing, by extending a nuclear umbrella to Ukraine, North Korea, Iran, Myanmar and other countries, China can promote norms of international nonproliferation while simultaneously increasing regional stability. From Beijing’s perspective, a nuclear umbrella could potentially stave off a potentially destabilizing regime collapse in Pyongyang, guarantee a strategic buffer between China and U.S. forces in South Korea, and demonstrate Chinese independence on the global stage. China’s state-run People’s Daily argued that a Chinese nuclear umbrella over Ukraine will allow China to further resist U.S. efforts at nuclear blackmail and coercion, a fundamental component of China’s stated nuclear doctrine.

 

[a_majoor]

One always has to wonder if this is some sort of "one off" by a disgruntled person feeling the wine, but if this represents the veiws of the Chinese government or a large number of influential Chinese people then there is trouble in the air:

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-japan-conflict-could-lead-to-war-2014-1

Someone Just Said Something About The Japan-China Conflict That Scared The Crap Out Of Everyone
HENRY BLODGET   
JAN. 22, 2014, 9:51 AM 65,171 149

I went to one of those fancy private dinners last night in Davos, Switzerland.
Like most of the events here at the 2014 World Economic Forum, the dinner was conducted under what are known as "Chatham House Rules," which means that I can't tell you who was there.

I can tell you what was said, though. And one thing that was said rattled a lot of people at the table.

During the dinner, the hosts passed a microphone around the table and asked guests to speak briefly about something that they thought would interest the group.

One of the guests, an influential Chinese professional, talked about the simmering conflict between China and Japan over a group of tiny islands in the Pacific.

China and Japan, you may recall, each claim ownership of these islands, which are little more than a handful of uninhabited rocks between Japan and Taiwan. Recently, the Japan-China tension around the islands has increased, and has led many analysts, including Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, to worry aloud about the potential for a military conflict.

The Chinese professional at dinner last night did not seem so much worried about a military conflict as convinced that one was inevitable. And not because of any strategic value of the islands themselves (they're basically worthless), but because China and Japan increasingly hate each other.

The Chinese professional mentioned the islands in the context of the recent visit by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. The Yasukuni Shrine is a Shinto shrine where Japanese killed in Japan's many military conflicts over the centuries are memorialized — including the Japanese leaders responsible for the attacks and atrocities Japan perpetrated in World War 2. A modern-day Japanese leader visiting the Yasukuni Shrine is highly controversial, because it is viewed by Japan's former (and current) enemies as an act of honoring war criminals.

That's certainly the way the Chinese professional at the dinner viewed it.

He used the words "honoring war criminals," to describe Abe's visit to the shrine. And, with contained but obvious anger, he declared this decision "crazy."

He then explained that the general sense in China is that China and Japan have never really settled their World War 2 conflict. Japan and America settled their conflict, he explained, and as a result, the fighting stopped. But China and Japan have never really put the war behind them.

The Chinese professional acknowledged that if China asserted control over the disputed islands by attacking Japan, America would have to stand with Japan. And he acknowledged that China did not want to provoke America.

But then he said that many in China believe that China can accomplish its goals — smacking down Japan, demonstrating its military superiority in the region, and establishing full control over the symbolic islands — with a surgical invasion.

In other words, by sending troops onto the islands and planting the flag.

The Chinese professional suggested that this limited strike could be effected without provoking a broader conflict. The strike would have great symbolic value, demonstrating to China, Japan, and the rest of the world who was boss. But it would not be so egregious a move that it would force America and Japan to respond militarily and thus lead to a major war.

Well, when the Chinese professional finished speaking, there was stunned silence around the table.

The assembled CEOs, investors, executives, and journalists stared quietly at the Chinese professional. Then one of them, a businessman, reached for the microphone.

"Do you realize that this is absolutely crazy?" the businessman asked.

"Do you realize that this is how wars start?"

"Do you realize that those islands are worthless pieces of rock... and you're seriously suggesting that they're worth provoking a global military conflict over?"

The Chinese professional said that, yes, he realized that. But then, with conviction that further startled everyone, he said that the islands' value was symbolic and that their symbolism was extremely important.

Challenged again, the Chinese professional distanced himself from his earlier remarks, saying that he might be "sensationalizing" the issue and that he, personally, was not in favor of a war with Japan. But he still seemed certain that one was deserved.

I'm far from an expert on the Japan-China conflict, and I'll leave the analyses of this situation to those who are. All I can tell you is that a respected, smart, and influential Chinese professional suggested at dinner last night that a surgical invasion by China of the disputed islands is justified and would finally settle the Japan-China conflict without triggering a broader war. And that suggestion freaked out everyone in the room.

UPDATE: Around the time I published this post, Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times tweeted the following about an interview with Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan. In case you've forgotten, 1914 is when World War 1 started.

Just interviewed Shinzo Abe @Davos. He said China and Japan now are in a "similar situation" to UK and Germany before 1914.

— Gideon Rachman (@gideonrachman) January 22, 2014

 

[CougarKing]

"Bei jing, wo men you wen ti le" (Mandarin for "Beijing, we have a problem") 

South China Morning Post

Beijing, we have a problem: China's first moon rover Jade Rabbit breaks down

China's first lunar rover, the Jade Rabbit, appears to have broken down halfway through its three-month mission to the moon.

Jade Rabbit experienced a "mechanical control abnormality" and scientists were examining the best ways to carry out repairs, Xinhua reported.

The problem was the result of a "complicated lunar surface environment", Xinhua cited the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence as saying.

The solar-powered Jade Rabbit, or Yutu, was supposed to carry out geological surveys and astronomical observations for three months after the Beijing Aerospace Control Centre announced its soft landing on the moon on December 14.

(...)

 

[a_majoor]

Considering spraying water from skyscrapers to control pollution in Chinese cities. The issues of getting enough clean water, the energy to pump it and the handling of the contaminated water as it flows through the sewage system do not seem to have been addressed (at least not in this article). Living in a Chinese city and being sujected to a constant shower of dirty water from these systems is probably better than breathing smog, but cleaning the pollution at the source is still the best solution:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/01/more-details-about-skyscraper-water.html#more

More details about Skyscraper water spraying to mitigate air pollution

Nextbigfuture covered the concept of spraying water from skyscrapers to reduce air pollution in cities in China.

Spraying water from skyscrapers could help to reduce the concentration of PM2.5 pollution - tiny particles in the air which are especially hazardous to health - efficiently to a safer level of 35 micrograms per cubic metre, and in as quick as 30 minutes. Air pollution is a big problem in China and this is approach to pollution mitigation is being developed there.

In addition, the process is natural, technologically feasible, efficient and low cost. All the necessary technologies and materials required to make it work are already available, Yu says, from high buildings, towers and aircraft, to weather modification technology and automatic sprinkler heads.

Tests will be performed at Zhejiang University campus first and then Hangzhou city if everything goes well. If we are successful, our work can be followed by the other cities in China and around the world."

Air pollution in China has progressively worsened over the past 30 years, particularly in its megacities, due to rapid economic growth and expansion of industrial activity. According to a Greenpeace report released last week, in 2013, 92 per cent of Chinese cities failed to reach the national standard of a PM2.5 density of no greater than 35 micrograms per cubic metre. Thirty-two cities were double the standard, while the top 10 cities were three times the standard.

The six most polluted cities are in Hebei province, led by the industrial cities of Xingtai and Shijiazhuang. Among China's international business centres, Beijing was the worst at No 13, with an average PM2.5 index of 89.5 micrograms per cubic metre, followed by Qingdao (No 47) and Shanghai (No 48).

Natural precipitation is effective at cleaning air pollution - just think how much clearer the Hong Kong skyline is after a rainy day. In Beijing, an urban atmospheric environmental monitoring station showed that PM2.5 concentrations decreased from about 220 to 30 micrograms per cubic metre on September 26, 2011 because of heavy rain. Precipitation can also efficiently reduce gaseous air pollutants such and nitric acid and sulphur dioxide.

Yu's system is designed to spray raindrops of specific sizes and rain intensity, and at different heights, for the most efficient pollution reduction depending on the conditions.

Water should be sprayed into the atmosphere from at least 100 metres high, he says, because most air pollution is below this height. For areas with no tall buildings, towers of 100 to 200 metres high can be built.

The spraying would need to be done daily to avoid the accumulation of air pollution. Ideally, the water will be obtained from rivers and lakes to keep costs low, he says, and can be collected and reused, thereby preventing any exacerbation of existing water shortages. Although there are potential problems - such as flooding, humidification of the low atmosphere, and slippery grounds - Yu says these are outweighed by the benefits.

Dr Chan Chak-keung, a professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology's division of environment, says Yu's proposal is "interesting" but is concerned about the scheme's water usage.

"Where will we find that much water? You could recycle the water, but that itself is a challenging task," says Chan. "If I spray water from the roof, what about pollution above the roof? Assuming his team can find a system that works, and they've done enough economic analysis and considered the handling of water resources, this could be a viable option.

"I would also recommend he considers spraying water right at the street level, especially along heavy traffic roads."

SOURCE - South China Morning Post

 

[tomahawk6]

With the unhealthy living conditions in the towns/cities what has prevented so far an epidemic such as the Black Plague,that decimated Europe ?

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Chinese are on the horns of a dilemma: they need clean air, the people want demand clean air; they desperately need more and more reliable electricity, everywhere.

China has abundant coal and coal fired power plants are cheap and easy to build.

There is no such thing as "clean coal." Anyone who says there is is either a fool or a liar.

There are mitigation measures to make coal less of a problem, and China is employing some of them but the costs of refurbishing the older, dirtier plants is HUGE.

China desperately needs more and more reliable electricity.

After the fallout from the Three Gorges project ~ relearning the law of unintended consequences, and all that, China is wary of massive hydro-electric projects. Nuclear projects take time and money to build plus China needs a secure, reliable, friendly source of uranium; Namibia isn't it, Canada might be.

As to tomahawk6's question: China has an adequate, even good enough, public health system ... far from "first class," but sufficient for most purposes. Probably on a par with a few European countries and even one or, maybe, two American states.

There is a pressing need for cleaner clean air in China ... as soon as the overwhelming demand for reliable electricity is largely met.

 

[a_majoor]

With the unhealthy living conditions in the towns/cities what has prevented so far an epidemic such as the Black Plague,that decimated Europe ?

Given the rather opaque reporting of issues from China, there is every possibility that diseases like SARS or some form of Avian or Swine flue are active in China, but as ERC says upthread, the Chinese have the ability to contain outbreaks quickly and quietly, and general public health is good enough to keep other diseases like cholera, the Plague and other diseases spread by contaminated water or pests at bay. The filthy air probably sickens countless people, but these sorts of illnesses are not communicable like the plague.

One rather simple solution that occured to me after re reading the piece is why not simply have the sprayers installed inside the smokestacks of coal plants? The flood of dirty water is contained "in place" and the emissions that cause the smog in the first place are drastically reduced. This won't help with the emissions of vehicles and the homeowner's use of coal for heating and cooking in many places, but it should make a considerable start.

 

[Edward Campbell]

This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Calgary Herald, was intended to be a commentary on Neil Young, but, despite being several years old, it addresses a point made, right now, in this thread:

Source: The Calgary Herald

China is spewing deadly, harmful pollution out all over its own people. Forget about global climate change ~ the coal fumes are noxious, worse than the killer fog in London in the early 1950s.

Source: About.com 12,000 died in the London and area in the 1952 "killer fog."

Coal is not clean ... but the worst effects can be remediated.

 

[CougarKing]

The latest example of China expanding its footprint in Africa through arms sales: a Chinese shipyard completes an offshore patrol vessel for the Nigerian Navy.

FIRST OF TWO INCOMING P18N (ENLARGED TYPE 056 DESIGN) 1,800 TON STEALTH OFFSHORE PATROL VESSELS OF THE NIGERIAN NAVY LAUNCHED IN CHINA ; ASSIGNED THE PENNANT NUMBER ‘F91′ (From Beegeagle's blog.)

Based on the PLAN Type 056 corvette.  Jane's article on the P18N and Nigerian naval modernization plans.

 

[CougarKing]

As if the East China Sea wasn't enough...somehow I knew it was only a matter of time before Beijing set its sights on creating an ADIZ over the South China Sea as well...

Agence-France Presse via Rappler

China drafts plans air defense zone in West PH Sea - Japanese news report
By:  Agence France-Presse
January 31, 2014 12:46 PM

TOKYO -- China is considering declaring a new Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea, which Manila calls the West Philippine Sea, according to a Japanese report Friday, a move likely to fan tensions in an area riven by territorial disputes.

The report comes months after Beijing caused consternation with the sudden declaration of an ADIZ above the East China Sea, covering islands at the center of a sovereignty row with Tokyo.

It also comes as countries in the region grow increasingly concerned about what they see as China's aggressive territorial claims.

Working level officials in the Chinese air force have drafted proposals for the new zone, which could set the Paracel islands at its core and spread over much of the sea, the Asahi Shimbun said, citing unnamed sources, including from the Chinese government.

The draft was submitted to senior Chinese military officials by May last year, the respected daily said.

Beijing claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety, even areas a long way from its shoreline.

The countries surrounding the sea, among these the Philippines, have competing and overlapping claims to the area and are in dispute with Beijing, including over the ownership of islands.

Many countries, including the US and Japan, use ADIZs as a form of early warning, allowing them to track aircraft approaching their airspace.

Planes entering the area are frequently asked to identify themselves and to maintain radio contact with local authorities.

Any aircraft causing concern can trigger the launch of fighter jets, which are scrambled to intercept it.

The draft says the zone would at a minimum cover the Paracels, and could go as wide as the majority of South China Sea, the Asahi said.

(...)