Hawk said:
Well, I've done my best to tell you how these companies work. I've watched the numbers being fudged, and got into trouble because I wouldn't have any part of it. That's one of the reasons I no longer work fo a polling company.
I have this bridge . . . .
Hawk
Although you have a much better knowledge of how polling companies work, I thought that this was one of the most brilliant examples of how the same question can have two different results in polling. This excerpt is from "Yes, Prime Minister" by Antony Jay and Johnathan Lynn. The poll was about the re-introduction of conscription:
The secret is that when the Man in The Street is approached by a nice attractive young lady with a clipboard he is asked a SERIES of questions. Naturally, the Man in The Street wants to make a good impression and doesn't want to make a fool if himself. So the market researcher asks questions designed to elicit CONSISTENT answers.
Humphrey demonstrated the system on me. "Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?"
"Yes", I said.
"Do you think there's a lack of discipline and vigorous training in our Comprehensive Schools?"
"Yes"
"Do you think young people welcome some structure and leadership in their lives?"
"Yes"
"Do they respond to a challenge?"
"Yes"
"Might you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?"
"Yes"
Well, naturally I said yes. One could hardly have said anything else without looking inconsistent. Then what happens is that the Opinion Poll publishes only the last question and answer.
Of course, the reputable polls didn't conduct themselves like that. But there weren't too many of those. Humphrey suggested that we commission a new survey, not for the Party but for the Ministry of Defence. We did so. He invented the questions there and then:
"Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?"
"Yes," I said, quite honestly.
"Are you unhappy about the growth of armaments?"
"Yes"
"Do you think there's a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?"
"Yes"
"Do you think it wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?"
"Yes"
"Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?"
"Yes"
I'd said "yes" before I'd even realised it, d'you see?
Humphrey crowed with delight. "You see, Bernard," he said to me, "you're the perfect Balanced Sample".