A400M Rollout

[Haletown]

Uh oh . . .  the early ugly looks to be starting.

"The Government is considering whether to scrap a £2.5 billion order for military transport aircraft after delays of at least three years to the project.

EADS, which owns Airbus, said yesterday that it would not meet production targets for the A400M and, as a result, its customers would be able to walk away from the project with no penalty.

The Ministry of Defence has ordered 25 of the giant propeller-powered A400Ms, which are capable of carrying up to 32 tonnes of equipment, but it is looking at alternative options because of delays.

One possibility is to scrap the project altogether, which is thought to be favoured by the Royal Air Force. The Commons Defence Committee also recommended last month that Britain should pull out of the A400M programme. The MoD may also choose to reduce the number of aircraft ordered and replace them with C17s from Boeing or C130Js from Lockheed Martin. "

http://tinyurl.com/cukn7e

 

[geo]

Hmmm... trialed and tested design VS vaporware..... decisions, decisions, decisions!

 

[Haletown]

Hmmm... trialed and tested design VS vaporware..... decisions, decisions, decisions!

Ya for sure.

Does make me wonder if, in these dark days of the program with the engines still not working, the senior management of EADS have ever discussed why they decided to kick P&WC off the program and go instead with the political decision to build a Euro engine.  Reality is such a bitch compared to the warm comfy fur of political hubris.

Ohhhhhhhh  yes . . .  shadenfrude is so lovely, especially in the morning.

 

[geo]

haletown...
I am sure the politicians asked themselves.... "how hard could it be to build an engine?"

Now they know!  It's expensive and there are no guarantees that they will do it right

 

[YZT580]

reality bites!  The tone of thought around the European community though is that the airplane will still fly, and after a lot of grumbling and compensation everyone will stay the course.  Those who differ expect that the order book will shrink as each customer i.e. MOD buys enough heavy lift to bridge the gap until the A400 is finally delivered so GB will, for instance reduce their order book to 10.  Wishful thinking or political reality?  The reality may be that airbus is informing HM government that if you cancel, we pull future development out of England.  That is what happens when you lose control of your industry to offshore interests.

 

[Haletown]

It is going to very interesting to watch.  The Eurozone is living under huge internal pressures right now with the recession impacts causing significant political rifts.  If EADS threatens countries with losing future work it will likely backfire and cause even more political IED's to go "BOOM!"

http://tinyurl.com/dfruky


meanwhile, the Aviation Press is on the case:


"EADS has drawn up a shopping list of A400M contract renegotiation demands - it includes a revised delivery schedule, new delivery standards, slowed production ramp-up, lower penalties and generous allowances for inflation.

Or, the programme could be axed if OCCAR, the procurement agency representing European customer nations, decides to exercise its right, from 1 April, to get out. Swinging that sword of Damocles would force EADS to give back €5.7 billion ($7.27 billion) of advance payments.

It's a threat that EADS should be taking seriously.

rtr  @  http://tinyurl.com/ddnnmc

 

[geo]

Swinging that sword of Damocles would force EADS to give back €5.7 billion ($7.27 billion) of advance payments.

I see this point as being the one that will either make or break EADS.
Even if government supported, their cash flow won't be able to handle the 7.27Billion $.  I contend that some countries will say, keep the cash, we're walking... else partner nations would have to pony up the 7.27Billion needed to pay themselves back.

 

[YZT580]

South Africa will be the canary in the mine.  Being the first outside customer for the aircraft, their reaction may be the bellwether that determines whether EADS is truly successful in their revisions or not.  Also, both Germany and England are desperately in need of transport now.  English experience does show that they need the capability but the A400, with the announced weight penalties, is no longer head and shoulders above the C130 in capability: certainly not enough to justify the extra price.  They have given up 5 tonnes of capacity.  As you say, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out especially since both the US and Russia have comparable lift available at bargain basement prices in comparison

 

[Haletown]

Looks like France might have some canaries in its mines as well.

Last week, it was a 3 year delay.  Today it is a four year delay.  Happy St Patrick's Day EADS customers.

"4-Year Delay Expected for A400M
By pierre tran
Published: 17 Mar 15:00 EDT (19:00 GMT)
Print  Print  |  Print  Email

Paris - The A400M will be four years late for operational duty, and France could cut orders for the airlifter as it looks for "gap fillers" to make up for the delay in delivery, procurement Chief Executive Laurent Collet-Billon said March 17.
France is considering all options for plugging the capability gap as it awaits the A400M. (EADS)

An audit by OCCAR, the European arms agency, shows that the A400M's "operational delay" will be four years, Collet-Billon of the Délégation Générale pour l'Armement (DGA) said at a press conference on the DGA's 2008 results. That is longer than the three-year delay EADS previously announced."

rtr @  http://tinyurl.com/dj6vx5

Wonder if EADS still believes it will sell 400+  A400M's in North America like it stated in its Sales Forecast last year.

I guess when you are staring at a cliff edge, you just have to believe.

 

[Haletown]

so last month they "revealed" it was overweight.  Potentially big issue for the mission profile for this aircraft.

Now the first hint the engines aren't burn'n & turn'n with as much oooomph as the design calls for.  Not a confirmation, but a strong hint, maybe a trial balloon to get the bad news out gradually ?

"As we have previously reported in these columns, the A400M is also having trouble with the new engines that were specially developed for it. They are not as powerful as they were supposed to be and significantly reduced the aircraft's projected range and cargo-carrying capacity."

http://tinyurl.com/c3dpkd

At this rate it will cost as much as a  C17 and have the range & payload of a Jerc    A perfect compromise aircraft design.

And to think we were pressured into buying into the Program

 

[time expired]

More than 1.8 billion Dollars cost overruns

Two years delivery date delays

Manufacturers missmanagement and failure of the wing structure

The A400M?, no folks the C17,Aviation Week Mar.1993.

Some things never change
                              Regards

 

[KJK]

time expired, I know what you are saying but at least the C 17 used off the shelf engines and some off the shelf avionics. The A400m project can't say that and it is now 4 years behind.

KJK

 

[Haletown]

jeez that aviation inflation is a bitch . . .    ;D

1993 its $1.8 billion and two years. 

2009 its four years (six if you count the original schedule) and 5.7 Billion Euros . . .  and the clock is still ticking.

Tick tock, tick tock  . . .  I wouldn't even hazard a guess when that clock goes silent.

 

[geo]

Hmmm.... wonder if P&WC might have something sitting on the shelf that could fit the bill ???

Nah - Airbus won't ask

 

[Haletown]

Hmmm.... wonder if P&WC might have something sitting on the shelf that could fit the bill ???

Nah - Airbus won't ask

  hmmmmm    a Quad PT 6 mount for each A400M nacelle ?

 

[YZT580]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/5071242/Airbus-admits-it-may-scrap-A400M-military-transport-aircraft-project.html

Airbus themselves are now saying that the A400 is a disaster: and that is from the boss!!  Overweight, underpowered, and in need of a substantial cash transfusion.  Perhaps it will join the Spruce Goose but at any rate, it is beginning to look less and less like you will ever see an A400 coming to a base near you

 

[Haletown]

wow . .  even worse than I thought it would get . . .

"The aircraft is over-weight, its turbo-prop engines built by Rolls-Royce and France's Snecma are under-powered and there have been serious glitches in the software from MTU Aero Engines.

That is what we know about, but there have also been rumours of serious problems with the navigation software. There have also been huge problems with production integration, with component mismatches between the different satellite manufacturing centres, and a lack of design co-ordination. In other words, there are not the normal "teething troubles" that you get with any new aeroplane. They are systemic problems which strike at the heart of this doomed project.

The final admission of defeat, when it comes, will cost EADS dear. An outright cancellation will mean that it will have to repay €5.7bn in advance fees to its customers, plus as yet unspecified non-delivery penalties.

Political ramification go even further. The A400M was always a political project, aimed at giving the putative European Army its own independent airlift capability, securing political and operational independence from the United States."


more at  . . .

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/03/crash-and-burn.html

 

[geo]

Haletown,
Correct me if I am wrong but, should EADS cancell the problem and have to repay the advance fees, wouldn't EADS turn around and assess member countries for their "fair" share of the business loss?

EADS is more of a political animal than an independent enterprise & governments will be expected to contribute to the bottom line... I think

 

[Haletown]

Haletown,
Correct me if I am wrong but, should EADS cancell the problem and have to repay the advance fees, wouldn't EADS turn around and assess member countries for their "fair" share of the business loss?


EADS is more of a political animal than an independent enterprise & governments will be expected to contribute to the bottom line... I think

I think you are correct . . .  the  European taxpayers are the real victims here. 

EADS also gets money via Airbus Commercial by selling civilian airlines so in addition to all the taxpayer money that would be flushed down the toilet on a failed program, there would be some "real" money there as well, I think.


EADS has to be $hurting big time .. .  in addition to the A400M, the A380 might be a magnificent engineering achievement, but it is, and will most likely continue to be, a financial disaster for the company.

 

[Haletown]

ouch ! 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/world/europe/31iht-nato.html


"All production has stopped because the four manufacturers have different designs that have been melded together in an unwieldy compilation. In addition, the fuselage is too heavy, primarily because of measures implemented to compensate for the extreme vibration produced by the high power output of the engines. There were problems too with the electronic control system, again because different manufacturers were involved."