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I'm sorry, but can't people see the obvious? If you don't have kids, who do you think will be around to visit? Horrifically expensive, emotionally draining, but the only surety to our future.
SourceThursday, May 17, 2007
110,000 abortions per year in Canada
The Globe reported today that teen pregnancies are down and abortions are declining; it was a decent article, but the last line caught me off guard:
"In Canada, there are about 330,000 lives birth each year, and about 110,000 abortions."
SourceCanada to accept up to 265,000 new immigrants in 2008
Ottawa, October 31, 2007 — The Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, announced today that Canada expects to welcome between 240,000 and 265,000 newcomers in 2008.
Source....The most important thing to know about the left today is that it is centered on social issues. At root, it always has been, ever since the movement took form and received its name in the revolutionary Paris of the 1790s. In order to drive toward a vision of true human liberation, all the institutions and moral codes we associate with civilization had to be torn down. The institutions targeted in revolutionary France included the monarchy and the nobility, but even higher on the enemies list of the Jacobins and their allies were organized religion and the family, institutions in which the moral values of traditional society could be preserved and passed on outside the control of the leftist vanguard.
Full human liberation always remained the ultimate vision of the left--Marx, for one, was explicit on this point--but the left in its more than 200-year history has been flexible and adaptable in the forms it was willing to assume and the projects it was willing to undertake in pursuit of its anti-institutional goals. For more than a hundred years, the central project of the global left was socialism.
It's hard to credit today, but as recently as the 1940s most Western political elites believed government ownership of business and national planning were the keys to economic modernization. Even when socialism's economic prestige was eroded by the West's capitalist boom after World War II, socialism retained credibility as a means of income redistribution.
It was the turbulent 1960s that proved a strategic turning point for the left. The worldwide social and cultural upheavals that culminated in 1968 were felt as a crisis of confidence by institutions in the West. Some institutions (universities, for example) defected to the rebels, while others saw their centuries-long influence on the population greatly weaken or drain away virtually overnight.
In the short run, most political elites weathered the storm. A big reason, the left gradually realized, was that socialist economics had become an albatross. Increasingly, the democratic parties of the left in Western countries downplayed socialism or even decoupled from it, leaving them free to pursue the anti-institutional, relativistic moral crusade that has been in the DNA of the left all along.
This newly revitalized social and cultural agenda made it possible for the left to shrug off the collapse of European communism and the Soviet Union nearly two decades ago. Even in countries like China where the Communist party retained dictatorial power, socialist economics became a thing of the past. Attempts to suppress religion and limit the autonomy of the family did not.
For the post-1960s, post-socialist left, the single most important breakthrough has been the alliance between modern feminism and the sexual revolution. This was far from inevitable. Up until around 1960, attempts at sexual liberation were resisted by most educated women. In the wake of the success of Playboy and other mass-circulation pornographic magazines in the 1950s, men were depicted as the initiators and main beneficiaries of sexual liberation, women as intolerant of promiscuity as well as potential victims of predatory "liberated" men.
With the introduction of the Pill around 1960, things abruptly began to change. Fears of overpopulation legitimated a contraceptive ethic throughout middle-class society in North America, Europe, Japan, and the Soviet bloc. China, which discouraged contraception and welcomed population gains under Mao Zedong, flipped to the extreme of the One Child policy in 1979, shortly after pro-capitalist reformers took charge and fixed on strict population control as an integral and unquestioned part of the package of Western-style development.
The fact that the Pill was taken only by women gave them a greater feeling of control over their sexual activity and eroded their social and psychological resistance to premarital sex. "No fault" divorce, a term borrowed from the field of auto insurance, in reality amounted to unilateral divorce and began to undermine the idea of marriage as a binding mutual contract oriented toward the procreation and nurturing of children. Contrary to nearly every prediction, the ubiquity of far more reliable methods of contraception and the growing ideological separation of sex from reproduction, coincided with a huge increase in unwed pregnancies.
Though earlier versions of feminism tended to embrace children and elevate motherhood, the more adversarial feminism that gained a mass base in virtually every affluent democracy beginning in the 1970s preached that children and childbearing were the central instrumentality of men's subjugation of women. This more than anything else in the menu of the post-socialist left raised toward cultural consensus a vision in which the monogamous family was what prevented humanity from achieving a Rousseau-like "natural" state of freedom from all laws and all bonds of mutual obligation.
If this analysis is correct, the single most important narrative holding the left together in today's politics and culture is the one offered--often with little or no dissent--by adversarial feminism. The premise of this narrative is that for women to achieve dignity and self-fulfillment in modern society, they must distance themselves, not necessarily from men or marriage or childbearing, but from the kind of marriage in which a mother's temptation to be with and enjoy several children becomes a synonym for holding women back and cheating them out of professional success.
E.R. Campbell said:Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is an article to which we should give careful attention because it also applies to Canada;
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080905.wreckoning0906/BNStory/International/home
Immigration is absolutely essential for Canada’s future prosperity – hell’s bells increased immigration is essential for our very survival.
BUT we need carefully targeted immigration. We need to recruit people who will, largely, “hit the ground running” and integrate, fairly easily, into a sophisticated, tolerant, liberal-capitalist culture. There are, at this moment, two ‘good’ sources for large numbers of those ‘desirable’ people: China and India. There are also some ‘bad’ sources – areas that offer people who have, by and large, demonstrated difficulty in adjusting to Canada, even in the second generation.
Colin P said:Despite having a Univesity of London law degree and 7 year before the bar in Malaysia, my wife had to go through a 3 year process to become a lawyer here, including articling and "play court" Most of the stuff they covered was a rehash of what she previously studied. she also commented that the standards here were lower than Malaysia. Added to this was the fact that for the first year she was not allowed a work permit, which I figure cost us $40,000 in lost wages, which would have helped a lot.
Colin P said:Despite having a Univesity of London law degree and 7 year before the bar in Malaysia, my wife had to go through a 3 year process to become a lawyer here, including articling and "play court" Most of the stuff they covered was a rehash of what she previously studied. she also commented that the standards here were lower than Malaysia. Added to this was the fact that for the first year she was not allowed a work permit, which I figure cost us $40,000 in lost wages, which would have helped a lot.
Liberals will restore fairness, streamline immigration system
RICHMOND, British Columbia – A new Liberal government will reverse the irresponsible immigration measures introduced by the Conservatives last spring and invest a total of $800 million in new federal funding to deal with the immigration backlog, welcome more new Canadians, and ensure that they succeed, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion said today.
“Last spring the Conservative government gave the Immigration Minister sweeping discretionary powers to reject whole categories of immigration applications,” said Mr. Dion. “When I am elected Prime Minister I will immediately reverse these unfair and dangerous immigration changes.”
Mr. Dion went on to discuss the Liberal vision for Canada, which includes ensuring new Canadians receive the support they need to fully participate in Canadian society.
“Immigration will account for all of Canada’s net labour and population growth during the next five years and is a key element of the Liberal plan for Canada’s future success,” said Mr. Dion. “A Liberal government will make the necessary investments to increase the number of permanent residents to Canada every year and ensure they have the necessary tools to succeed.”
In full partnership with provinces, fully respecting agreements such as the one with Quebec, over four years, a new Liberal government will invest:
$400 million to modernize the immigration system, process applications more efficiently and support the admission of significantly more permanent residents to Canada.
$200 million in New Beginnings Canada – an enhanced language training initiative designed to help newcomers master the language necessary to get jobs that match their qualifications; and
an additional $200 million for Bridge to Work – a new initiative that will better prepare newcomers for the workplace through the use of internships, mentorship and work placement opportunities. And we will help get foreign credentials recognized, by providing direct financial support to assist foreign-trained doctors and other professionals in obtaining their Canadian qualifications.“A successful immigration plan is built on the sound principles of fairness, accountability and opportunity,” said Mr. Dion. “We will welcome new Canadians everywhere in Canada to help us enrich our country, and we will provide and expand their opportunities to succeed.”
Bruce Monkhouse said:I don't know about you but I'm in no flippin' hurry to have some "Doctor" with some third world matchbook degree just waltzing in and becoming a "Doctor" here..............a few years in our school system sounds about right to me.
The incongruous said:The idea that we will have to rely entirely on immigration to sustain our population in the future really brings up the risk of cultural clash. Won't the growing mass of foreign-educated people favor the development of some kind of sub-culture more and more removed from our original values?
My 0.02$
The incongruous said:The idea that we will have to rely entirely on immigration to sustain our population in the future really brings up the risk of cultural clash. Won't the growing mass of foreign-educated people favor the development of some kind of sub-culture more and more removed from our original values?
My 0.02$
Marmite said:... Those policies are in place to help others move to a safer, more prosperous place to live.
E.R. Campbell said:We do not seek refugess and, broadly, we should not 'welcome' them to Canada.
A refugee is, by definition, a person who flees his home in fear of life or limb; the refugee, also by definition, 'wants' to return to his or her home as soon as it is safe. Our refugee policy should aim to 'welcome' refugees to safe, secure places as near as possible to their homes. There, we should provide services - health, education and so on, and we should work to end the crisis which 'made' the refugees in the first place. As soon as the crisis is resolved the refugees disappear - back to their homes.
Thucydides said:For refugees, Edward is right. The concept of refugees is people fleeing from persecution but who are willing to return to their homelands if their safety can be assured. ...
The Temptation of Totalitarian Birth Control
Posted Thursday, January 22, 2009 9:46 AM | By William Saletan
People in a democratic country wouldn't let their government restrict family size ... would they?
Yes, they would. Agence France Presse reports:
More than 80 percent of Filipinos support family planning and almost half believe the government should limit the number of children a couple can have, according to a survey released here Monday. ... 44 percent believed that "the government should pass a law specifying the number of children."
Why would Filipinos say this? "The Philippine population now stands at around 90 million, with an annual growth rate of 2.04 percent, one of the highest in Asia," the article explains. And guess who's behind the high birth rate?
The findings come despite a widespread campaign by the dominant Roman Catholic Church opposing a draft law that would make family planning services more widely available in the Philippines. ... The Catholic Church, which counts over 80 percent of Filipinos as followers, has said the reproductive health bill, which has been pending in Congress for months, is headed for defeat after a high-pressure campaign by bishops.
What a mess. On one side, we have the Catholic bishops, who are so adamantly opposed to contraception that they're blocking the provision of birth control for voluntary use. On the other side, we have an emerging near-majority of the population that now favors coercive limits on family size. Do the math: The Church claims to represent 80 percent of the population, yet more than 80 percent reject its teachings on contraception, and 44 percent think the government should impose laws in precisely the opposite direction. It looks as though the bishops' anti-contraceptive absolutism is driving their own flock into the arms of a totalitarian remedy.
But in a modern society, no government could really enforce a cap on family size, could it?
Sure it could. Look next door at China, which uses state-controlled subsidies to punish couples who bear more than one child. It's quite effective. And here's what's really scary: The Chinese government has learned to treat children like any other state-allocated resource. It doesn't just impose a quota. It does what it can to guarantee your share. This helps the population accept the system.
In effect, China provides a "warranty" on children: You're limited to a state-prescribed quota, but you can refill the quota if you lose your child under specified circumstances, such as last year's earthquake. And what a warranty! The central planners don't just offer you the right to have another kid. They really deliver. Here's the report from Xinhua:
Officials of the National Population and Family Planning Commission told a conference here Friday that 757 Chinese mothers who lost children in the May 12 quake have become pregnant again, reflecting special exceptions to national and local population policies. As of Dec. 31, the officials told the agency's annual work conference, 5,724 bereaved mothers had received free reproduction services, including counseling, guidance, health exams, sterilization reversals and fertility treatments.
This is exactly what the government promised seven months ago. And, sure enough, according to the New York Times, the regime has "sent teams of doctors to carry out reverse sterilization operations." Now, that's what I call service. The state uses financial penalties to close up your reproductive system. Then, if you end up below quota, the state reopens you for business. In fact, if necessary, it does the business itself. Even the fertility treatments are free.
But state manipulation of family size is just an Asian thing, right? It couldn't happen here.
Think again. Guess which country now has Europe's highest birth rate? France. How has it achieved this? "State-provided child care and family support payments," including "nanny subsidies." Australia has "cash payments for newborns." Spain pays "2,500 euros per new child." Austria offers "monthly payouts of $547 for the youngest child until the age of 3, and additional monthly checks ranging from $132 to $192."
These are governments that think they need more births. Most governments think they need fewer. If their citizens decide to support state-enforced limits on childbearing, and if agencies help each family fill its allotment, it's easy to envision a world where population growth is finally brought under control by the financial power of the state.
Sex Ratio At Birth Rises In Vietnam
Selective abortion of female fetuses is common in China, India, and some other Asian countries. A Plos One report finds that Vietnam shows signs of following the same pattern with a rise in the number of male births to 100 female births (Sex Ratio at Birth or SRB).
Birth history statistics indicate that the SRB in Viet Nam has recorded a steady growth since 2001. Starting from a level probably close to the biological standard of 105, the SRB reached 108 in 2005 and 112 in 2006, a value significantly above the normal level. An independent confirmation of these results comes from the surveys of births in health facilities which yielded a SRB of 110 in 2006–07. High SRB is linked to various factors such as access to modern health care, number of prenatal visits, level of higher education and employment status, young age, province of residence and prenatal sex determination. These results suggest that prenatal sex determination followed by selective abortion has recently become more common in Viet Nam. This recent trend is a consequence of various factors such as preference for sons, declining fertility, easy access to abortion, economic development as well as the increased availability of ultrasonography facilities.
One potential problem from a surplus of males is obviously more violence. All the single guys competing for women and feeling sexual frustration can cause problems.
But there's an evolutionary angle that is more interesting. The surplus of males heightens competition for reproductive resources (i.e. women) and therefore heightens selective pressures. One might expect economically more successful men to have an advantage in such a situation. If so, the effect will be to select for genes that code for smarter, more ambitious, and more driven males.
Demographic Depression
May 5th, 2009
For almost ten years now if you find yourself sitting next to me at a social function, and make some passing comment about being able to afford a cottage when you retire, or what with the prices of houses what kind of house will your kids be able to buy? you would quickly discover I have a theory. It’s not an optimistic theory, it’s not a pleasant thought, but, I lost nothing when the stock market declined last year because I had an idea what was coming (although, it came three years earlier than expected).
The theory? As Mark Steyn says, “lets start with demographics, because everything does.” I argue that the greatest amount of wealth is getting set to retire, that is, the possessors of that wealth will retire. Which means that instead of investing in stock markets, they will invest in bonds. When wealth leaves the stock market, the market contracts. Contract fast enough and it will crash. Forensic economists will sort through the rubble, but don’t be surprised if that’s partly what happened last year. Furthermore, housing prices will drop, says the theory, as these people get out of all those homes built from the 60’s to now, and move to condos, apartments and those retirement cottages. The single family home: who wants one? and those that do will find two on the market for every buyer. Especially true of those mammoth McMansions that have predominately been built the last twenty years.
It is with some trepidation that I note, the experts (who always seem to be wrong) are starting to catch up to me. Bloomberg today has an article on just such a demographic depression, and quotes Harry Dent, author of The Great Depression Ahead:
What you can’t see in the most recent housing numbers is the least-visible driver of home prices today: demographics.
Baby Boomers
The baby-boomer generation, the largest in American history, will be buying fewer single-family homes.
The U.S. is experiencing a 40-year generational peak in consumer spending, one that will lead to “the first and last Depression of our lifetimes,” author Harry Dent predicts in his book “The Great Depression Ahead” (Free Press, 2008).
Although we may not be headed for a 1930s-style Depression, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that boomers are dumping their four- and five-bedroom suburban homes for two- and three- bedroom condominiums.
It’s also unlikely that the “Generation X,” born between 1965 and 1976 (or more derisively called “baby busters”), will bid up home prices. They are only 44 million strong, not as wealthy and even more in debt from college loans.
The baby boomers are reorganizing their finances after a rocky decade in stocks. They aren’t buying as many second homes and vacation properties in warmer climates.
I was further surprised to read a press release for Dent’s book, in which he predicts a decline almost exactly as I have through the years:
Harry Dent forecast the housing slowdown years before it occurred and sees the minor recession of 2008 as
the beginning of a greater stock crash and depression to unfold between 2009 and 2012, with the worst crash
for stocks and housing likely between late 2009 and mid 2011. Home prices will continue to decline into late
2008 and then will likely experience a minor rebound in early to mid 2009. However, rising inflation, interest
rates and a last commodity bubble will bring a final blow to stocks, the economy, housing, and even the greater
emerging market bubble in stocks overseas.
A time frame of 2009-2012, when those boomers start retiring en masse, is exactly what I have been saying. Houses will be sold to pay for retirement, and money that was in stocks will be taken out to safer environs. The followup generations, including mine, have no capacity to fill the void. A decline in stock and housing prices must occur under those circumstances.
I’m not hiding in a bunker, scared of the future, in fact I’m quite optimistic. But a sense of this is what I have been saying has pervaded my reading of much of the economic news the past six or nine months. No need to panic, but be aware, there is likely more bad coming down the pike in the next three years.