A Deeply Fractured US

[Brad Sallows]

Economist John Cochrane wrote an op-ed for the WSJ a short while back, and it's here on his Substack. ("Understanding Trumpers")

The basic theme is that the establishments aren't doing a satisfactory job and their responses to Trump's presence have been counter-productive.

 

[dimsum]

Economist John Cochrane wrote an op-ed for the WSJ a short while back, and it's here on his Substack. ("Understanding Trumpers")

The basic theme is that the establishments aren't doing a satisfactory job and their responses to Trump's presence have been counter-productive.

Besides some points in the timeline that has some…context missing (e.g. Trump flip-flopping on the Covid vaccine), I think that article leaves out one important point - the “team” effect of US politics.

The Dems can promise “moderation, openness, and simple competence”, as he argues. But, US politics is at a point where I’m not even sure that will work anymore. Hell, just 24 hours ago, MTG wanted to oust the House Speaker bc the House passed a necessary spending bill to make sure that the US govt (including the US military) had funds to continue going past today. And don’t forget Tuberville’s blocking of GOFO promotions last fall, with its 2nd/3rd order effects, because of abortion.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Besides some points in the timeline that has some…context missing (e.g. Trump flip-flopping on the Covid vaccine), I think that article leaves out one important point - the “team” effect of US politics.

The Dems can promise “moderation, openness, and simple competence”, as he argues. But, US politics is at a point where I’m not even sure that will work anymore. Hell, just 24 hours ago, MTG wanted to oust the House Speaker bc the House passed a necessary spending bill to make sure that the US govt (including the US military) had funds to continue going past today. And don’t forget Tuberville’s blocking of GOFO promotions last fall, with its 2nd/3rd order effects, because of abortion.

The establishment flaws run a lot more broadly than a handful of issues in Congress. And the point that should be obvious from what Cochrane wrote is that the path to moderation, if we work backwards, requires electing moderates, which first requires convincing voters to elect moderates, which first requires demonstrating moderation, competence, fairness, objectivity, apolitical-ness, etc across all the agencies. By "demonstrating" I mean actual and apparent - as in, propriety and fairness and the appearance of propriety and fairness. "Promise" doesn't enter into it, because credibility has been shat out by so many people and agencies. And the people who got denied the trough in 2016 have to stop throwing in their own grenades - either start working productively, or just shut up and go away.

The Republicans also put out a budget plan a couple of days ago, including one of several possible options to deal with the approaching insolvency of social security: raising the eligibility age a couple of years (67 to 69). Insolvency is about 10 years away, and will result in an estimated 22% or 23% cut in benefits (the difference between contributions in and benefits out when the special "bonds" run out). This is a huge problem, affecting a lot of people. Democrats basically refused. They've been refusing as long as Republicans have been trying to solve it. It's one of the things Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell had as objectives. So much for Democrats working with moderate Republicans to solve important problems in Congress.

 

[KevinB]

The establishment flaws run a lot more broadly than a handful of issues in Congress. And the point that should be obvious from what Cochrane wrote is that the path to moderation, if we work backwards, requires electing moderates, which first requires convincing voters to elect moderates, which first requires demonstrating moderation, competence, fairness, objectivity, apolitical-ness, etc across all the agencies. By "demonstrating" I mean actual and apparent - as in, propriety and fairness and the appearance of propriety and fairness. "Promise" doesn't enter into it, because credibility has been shat out by so many people and agencies. And the people who got denied the trough in 2016 have to stop throwing in their own grenades - either start working productively, or just shut up and go away.

The Republicans also put out a budget plan a couple of days ago, including one of several possible options to deal with the approaching insolvency of social security: raising the eligibility age a couple of years (67 to 69). Insolvency is about 10 years away, and will result in an estimated 22% or 23% cut in benefits (the difference between contributions in and benefits out when the special "bonds" run out). This is a huge problem, affecting a lot of people. Democrats basically refused. They've been refusing as long as Republicans have been trying to solve it. It's one of the things Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell had as objectives. So much for Democrats working with moderate Republicans to solve important problems in Congress.

We have a lot of big problems. Successive governments ignored a lot of infrastructure issues - and we have roads, and bridges that need a lot of work if the country wants to continue to function.

Unfortunately when some governments have willing to tackle them, most have been awarded through pork barreled political deals and resulted in garbage. Many of the Obama road work already needs to get redone as it was mostly style over substance.


We need to slash the size of the government, and make things more efficient, and look to what the future holds, for if we continue on the current path - it’s going to be ugly - neither party at the current time has any decent plan to resolve issues that won’t cause a lot of other problems.

Looking at a lot of the Republican solutions I see a lot of ‘poison pills’ that society at this time won’t swallow. I think if we’d had a Romney/Ryan win, we’d have been a lot better off - unfortunately that was not to be, and I don’t see a lot of Republican efforts into a practical solution at this point, as a small segment of the caucus seems to be more interested in letter the world burn because DJT told them too.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Besides some points in the timeline that has some…context missing (e.g. Trump flip-flopping on the Covid vaccine), I think that article leaves out one important point - the “team” effect of US politics.

The Dems can promise “moderation, openness, and simple competence”, as he argues. But, US politics is at a point where I’m not even sure that will work anymore. Hell, just 24 hours ago, MTG wanted to oust the House Speaker bc the House passed a necessary spending bill to make sure that the US govt (including the US military) had funds to continue going past today. And don’t forget Tuberville’s blocking of GOFO promotions last fall, with its 2nd/3rd order effects, because of abortion.

Have you seen the pork barreling in that 1000+ page bill? It is not necessary spending. Dropped on Congress at 2am and passed 10 hrs later. It wasn't read fully by anyone. It's full of stuff that has zero to do with funding the government. Paying tuition for Egyptians going to school in Egypt. Money for border security in Jordan. That one is pretty ironic.

MTG needs to STFU.

 

[dimsum]

Have you seen the pork barreling in that 1000+ page bill? It is not necessary spending. Dropped on Congress at 2am and passed 10 hrs later. It wasn't read fully by anyone. It's full of stuff that has zero to do with funding the government. Paying tuition for Egyptians going to school in Egypt. Money for border security in Jordan. That one is pretty ironic.

MTG needs to STFU.

View attachment 83974

…which makes it worse. This isn’t supposed to be a controversial thing - it happens every year.

The US fiscal season ends end Oct. So, from my understanding, budgets have to be approved before then.

Thanks to Tuberville et al, it hasn’t, so to make sure that US military members get paid, amongst minor things like procurement, work travel, and pretty much anything Defense related, there have been a series of stopgap measures that approve funds for a few weeks at a time. So if it wasn’t passed yesterday, US military members stop getting paid.

I’m honestly flabbergasted that the US govt somehow manages to work.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I have no problem keeping the government running. It's all the other extraneous bullshit that gets shoved in there.

 

[Brad Sallows]

…which makes it worse. This isn’t supposed to be a controversial thing - it happens every year.

The problem is they don't have an approximately unified budget, like we do. There is no straightforward way to put a brake on mandatory spending except the debt ceiling. Here, Parliament passes a budget; anything not fully funded - "mandatory" or not - goes short and makes do. They have a ceiling; we have a ceiling; it's just that ours is whatever Parliament decides to authorize, each year. They could set a ceiling that they think would last ten years, if they wanted to. I doubt very much they can continue on their fiscal trajectory. Pain now, or more pain later. Hiding behind the principle that "Congress already authorized it" is just playing the ostrich.

 

[KevinB]

Justice Delayed and Delayed and...

Can any of these prosecutors, prosecute?

open.substack.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Lots of boo hooing going on in the New York DA's office today (and maybe here). As an aside, this will be the seventh time Engoron has been reversed on appeal in this case.​

​

Appeals court pauses $464M judgment in Trump’s New York fraud case​

Trump New York fraud bond cut to $175 million in appeal from $454 million

The New York State Court of Appeals ruled that former President Donald Trump does not have to come up with $464 million to appeal the judgment against him in hi

ground.news

Appeals court hands Trump victory, allows smaller bond in NY fraud case

A New York appeals court on Monday temporarily stopped the clock on the looming enforcement of a multimillion-dollar judgment against former President Trump and his company over deceitful business …

thehill.com

In a terse order, a five-judge state appeals court panel said it would pause the enforcement of the $464 million judgment against Trump, the Trump Organization and top executives, plus interest, if within 10 days they post a $175 million bond.

The appeals court order Monday also paused the enforcement of other penalties, including those barring Trump and top executives from serving in top leadership positions in New York businesses for several years.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Justice Delayed and Delayed and...

Can any of these prosecutors, prosecute?

open.substack.com

If Kinzinger is going to drag 2016 into the mix, he ought to reasonably apply his principles to Hillary Clinton's election interference, which became governmental interference.

 

[QV]

If Kinzinger is going to drag 2016 into the mix, he ought to reasonably apply his principles to Hillary Clinton's election interference, which became governmental interference.

This is why no person should take these people seriously.

 

[brihard]

Meanwhile over on the criminal side, Trump’s state felony trial in New York over the alleged hush money payments had a date set today after the judge rejected the late disclosure claims. Jury selection begins April 15th, then rolling immediately into trial. This will be the first but likely least significant of the four criminal trials currently faced by Trump.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Meanwhile over on the criminal side, Trump’s state felony trial in New York over the alleged hush money payments had a date set today after the judge rejected the late disclosure claims. Jury selection begins April 15th, then rolling immediately into trial. This will be the first but likely least significant of the four criminal trials currently faced by Trump.

Their chief witness is Michael Cohen, a known serial liar, convicted of perjury. Just saying. Of course the jury is picked from New York, so there's a good chance it won't matter if Trump proves his case, he'll likely be convicted by them no matter.

 

[brihard]

Their chief witness is Michael Cohen, a known serial liar, convicted of perjury. Just saying. Of course the jury is picked from New York, so there's a good chance it won't matter if Trump proves his case, he'll likely be convicted by them no matter.

Right, but we’ve been over this before. A witness’ impugned credibility can be accounted for through various corroborative evidence. There’s no way prosecutors would take a matter to trial with only or mostly just that to go on. The soft spot in this case won’t be Cohen as a witness; it’ll be the linking of the business record falsification to election law violations to get them to felony status. That‘a novel application of law. But in any event, this case matters by far the least out of the criminal ones.

 

[kkwd]

Here is the second count of the Bragg indictment, all 34 are all similar with changes to dates and voucher numbers. High lighted in yellow it says there was intent to commit another crime and conceal it. For the life of me I can't find this "other crime" in the indictment. Is this usual practice to do this?

SECOND COUNT:AND THE GRAND JURY AFORESAID, by this indictment, further accuses the
defendant of the crime of FALSIFYING BUSINESS RECORDS IN THE FIRST DEGREE,
in violation of Penal Law §175.10, committed as follows:
The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about February 14, 2017,
with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission
thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in
the Detail General Ledger for the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, bearing voucher number
842457, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.

Trump Indictment

 

[brihard]

Here is the second count of the Bragg indictment, all 34 are all similar with changes to dates and voucher numbers. High lighted in yellow it says there was intent to commit another crime and conceal it. For the life of me I can't find this "other crime" in the indictment. Is this usual practice to do this?


Trump Indictment

Depends. The Feds will generally have a narrative of the basic particulars with their indictments. Doesn’t look like NY does at the state level. But that will be pre of what they have to prove at trial, although not to the extend of proving commission of that other linked offence.

 

[kkwd]

Depends. The Feds will generally have a narrative of the basic particulars with their indictments. Doesn’t look like NY does at the state level. But that will be pre of what they have to prove at trial, although not to the extend of proving commission of that other linked offence.

I found some info on that in a press release from DA Bragg's office. Seems peculiar it wasn't included in legal documents.
Bragg Press Release

 

[brihard]

I found some info on that in a press release from DA Bragg's office. Seems peculiar it wasn't included in legal documents.
Bragg Press Release

Not that particular legal document. I’m sure it’s in other materials, and it’ll definitely be in the prosecution’s disclosure to defense. Some documents are convenient and interesting for public co gumption; most are not. I love the federal DOJ indictment narratives; they’re a great prosecutorial summary.

 

[Kirkhill]

Some interesting takes....

The chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability’s Subcommittee on Government Operations and the Federal Workforce sent a preservation letter Thursday to Rosa Brooks, an associate dean at Georgetown University School of Law, for materials related to the Transition Integrity Project.

TIP ran its exercises in the spring and summer of 2020, and one of its concerns was the loyalty of the District of Columbia National Guard. The D.C. National Guardsmen responded effectively to the George Floyd riots in the nation's capital with a discipline that concerned TIP participants—so much so that in the final TIP report, the authors expressed concerns that they were too loyal to Trump.

During the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill protests, Pentagon generals and civilian leaders delayed the National Guard's mobilization to the Capitol for more than two hours, citing their concerns over the optics of the military restoring order. Leaders could also have been concerned that the Guardsmen would influence the presidential election's certification in favor of the Trump team's effort to challenge the elector slate committed to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

J6 whistleblower Col. Earl G. Matthews, the senior legal advisor to the DCNG’s commanding general, told RedState the delay was so significant that New Jersey state troopers arrived at Capitol Hill before the D.C. National Guard.

Also...

Sessions wrote that NBC News also suggested that McCord would be running the effort to undermine civilian control of the Pentagon.

Continued civilian control of the Pentagon is being challenged by the idea that the military is an autonomous or even feudal fiefdom immune from political influence—political meaning democratic.

The highest-profile proponent of Pentagon autonomy is retired Gen. Mark A. Milley. In speeches and interviews, Milley repeated the phrase: "We took an oath to the Constitution, not an individual.”

In Federalist 69, Alexander Hamilton wrote that the president, like the King of Great Britain, would have the supreme command and direction of the military and naval forces, as the first general and admiral of the country.

Milley said it was up to him to figure it out. Hamilton said the senior general and admiral is the president.

McCord’s effort to suppress Article Two refers to the Constitution’s Article Two, Section 2:

The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States…

It always gets tricky when you are charged with trying to figure out what is a lawful order and what isn't.

Personal take is that if you object to the boss's orders that much the correct action is to quit (mutiny) and take your chances in court.

Conscientious Objector Mohammed Ali is still my hero.

In Georgetown Preservation Letter, Rep. Sessions Targets Rosa Brooks, Mary McCord, Military Officials

redstate.com