A Deeply Fractured US

[Fishbone Jones]

So it is Election Day in VA (and several other states)
I'm a big fan of our current Governor - and his non MAGA Conservativism - so I am hoping it grows into more here.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/politics/virginia-elections-glenn-youngkin/index.html

I wonder if it will be an indicator as to 2024? Although there's likey to be a lot of ups and downs between now and then.

 

[KevinB]

Well disappointed showing for the GOP in VA.

Then the 3rd debate

Opinion | ‘She Certainly Beat All the Boys’: Winners and Losers of the Third G.O.P. Debate

Opinion columnists and contributors assess the candidates in Miami.

www.nytimes.com

 

[brihard]

Looks like an unexpectedly strong showing for the Dems across a variety of state legislatures, offices, and ballot issues.

 

[RangerRay]

Something isn’t being captured by polling down there. 2022 and 2023 were supposed to be drubbings for the Dems, but they ended up doing better than expected.

 

[KevinB]

Something isn’t being captured by polling down there. 2022 and 2023 were supposed to be drubbings for the Dems, but they ended up doing better than expected.

Just like the 2020 Elections misread the active dislike to HRC, the toxicity of DJT to the GOP is being missed IMHO, as well as the MAGA backlash against non MAGA GOP.
In VA Gov Glen Younkin heavily campaigned for GOP non MAGA candidates - and even then a lot of GOP areas fell.

It appears that many GOP voters will 1) Stay home if they are a MAGA person and a non MAGA GOP Candidate is on the ballot or 2) Vote Dem, if a MAGA Candidate is on the Ballot and they are a Never Trump Again'er.

My District voted Republican - and we had a Moderate - but while it was a clear GOP win, we didn't have the same GOP turnout we had had for a long time.

 

[KevinB]

While he isn't going to get elected this way - he is being honest.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722447382195941689

 

[Brad Sallows]

Well disappointed showing for the GOP in VA.

Maybe not as much as some think. The author of this (Sean Trende, at RealClearPolitics) was involved with the last redistricting. Also, others have commented on the distinction between unrealistic aims and a good performance.

 

[Kirkhill]

Just like the 2020 Elections misread the active dislike to HRC, the toxicity of DJT to the GOP is being missed IMHO, as well as the MAGA backlash against non MAGA GOP.
In VA Gov Glen Younkin heavily campaigned for GOP non MAGA candidates - and even then a lot of GOP areas fell.

It appears that many GOP voters will 1) Stay home if they are a MAGA person and a non MAGA GOP Candidate is on the ballot or 2) Vote Dem, if a MAGA Candidate is on the Ballot and they are a Never Trump Again'er.

My District voted Republican - and we had a Moderate - but while it was a clear GOP win, we didn't have the same GOP turnout we had had for a long time.

The state enacted a redistricting commission, and after it deadlocked, the Supreme Court of Virginia appointed two special masters to draw the maps. I was one of those special masters, along with University of California, Irvine political scientist Bernard Grofman, so there are court-imposed limits to how much I can discuss. At the same time, there are two lengthy, publicly available memoranda explaining our process, and I can draw upon those here.

Our hopes for the maps were that they would reflect Virginia’s Democratic lean, but also the fact that Republicans had just swept all three of the Commonwealth’s statewide offices. We initially drew without respect to politics, and as it turned out, the districts that we produced were consistent with that goal. These maps were supposed to be hard for the GOP to win a trifecta under, but not impossible in a perfect storm.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/11/09/post-election_analysis_virginia_ohio_kentucky_and_mississippi_150035.html

Should the people drawing up the maps have preferences?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Just like the 2020 Elections misread the active dislike to HRC, the toxicity of DJT to the GOP is being missed IMHO, as well as the MAGA backlash against non MAGA GOP.
In VA Gov Glen Younkin heavily campaigned for GOP non MAGA candidates - and even then a lot of GOP areas fell.

It appears that many GOP voters will 1) Stay home if they are a MAGA person and a non MAGA GOP Candidate is on the ballot or 2) Vote Dem, if a MAGA Candidate is on the Ballot and they are a Never Trump Again'er.

My District voted Republican - and we had a Moderate - but while it was a clear GOP win, we didn't have the same GOP turnout we had had for a long time.

You mean 2016 elections right?

 

[KevinB]

You mean 2016 elections right?

My bad. Yes.

 

[Kirkhill]

Kind of bizarre when the people conducting oversight are under surveillance by the people they are over-seeing.

DOJ asked court to hide surveillance of congressional investigators for five years, ex-aide says

Jason Foster says DOJ’s surveillance of Congress and its staff could have chilling effect on whistleblowers coming forward in future.

justthenews.com

 

[QV]

Kind of bizarre when the people conducting oversight are under surveillance by the people they are over-seeing.

DOJ asked court to hide surveillance of congressional investigators for five years, ex-aide says

Jason Foster says DOJ’s surveillance of Congress and its staff could have chilling effect on whistleblowers coming forward in future.

justthenews.com

Don't worry about those details... everything is fine.... Trust.

Look over hear: Orange man bad!

 

[OldSolduer]

Kind of bizarre when the people conducting oversight are under surveillance by the people they are over-seeing.

DOJ asked court to hide surveillance of congressional investigators for five years, ex-aide says

Jason Foster says DOJ’s surveillance of Congress and its staff could have chilling effect on whistleblowers coming forward in future.

justthenews.com

Kinda Good Boys .....

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well, nobody should be surprised by this.
Rules for thee, not for me.

Special Councel will not Bring Charges in Biden Document Case

MSN

 

[Navy_Pete]

Well, nobody should be surprised by this.
Rules for thee, not for me.

Special Councel will not Bring Charges in Biden Document Case

MSN

My take away from this is if Trump had some documents, given them back when asked, would have gone the same route.

But sure, lets ignore the differences in context when Trump was actively trying to hide the documents, lied repeatedly and shared information on TS and SA documents which included nuclear and state secrets as some kind of weird flex to impress randos.

 

[brihard]

From the article, a portion that likely speaks to the Special Counsel’s assessment of whether there was criminal intent:

However, unlike in the Biden case, the National Archives requested documents back from Trump but failed to receive a response to their request. The FBI pursued a search warrant for his Florida country club to retrieve the documents. Meanwhile, Biden’s legal counsel notified the National Archives of the documents upon their discovery and returned them.

So “shit, we found something we shouldn’t have, contact archives and give them back” versus “let’s keep these, take multiple active steps to hide these and deny we have them”.

Super minor differences in the fact set, I know, and I realize that to the layperson this may just be meaningless legal nuance, but these sorts of tiny differences in detail can be important when lawyers do lawyer stuff.

 

[PMedMoe]

And you'd have to be willingly blind not to see the difference between the two cases.

 

[kkwd]

The real lesson of these incidents is any member of the house or senate or executive branch can haul away any classified documents they desire and there will be no consequences if you give them back if caught.

 

[brihard]

The real lesson of these incidents is any member of the house or senate or executive branch can haul away any classified documents they desire and there will be no consequences if you give them back if caught.

Who ‘got caught’, as opposed to finding stuff and remedying it?

Also note that criminal culpability depends on an individual’s knowledge. That can easily be obfuscated by things like delegation of packing and moving. It would take some solid evidence to be able to tie an individual specifically to knowing breaches of criminal law related to classified information.

Again though, seemingly minor nuances.

 

[kkwd]

Who ‘got caught’, as opposed to finding stuff and remedying it?

Also note that criminal culpability depends on an individual’s knowledge. That can easily be obfuscated by things like delegation of packing and moving. It would take some solid evidence to be able to tie an individual specifically to knowing breaches of criminal law related to classified information.

Again though, seemingly minor nuances.

Yep, it will be figured out in court about Trump but Biden not so much. I just can't believe Biden didn't personally know there were classified documents in the office he used as well as his garage. Another point it was well hidden from the public and only came to light months later when ABC news broke a story. The second batch found was not revealed either until another news story came out.