GR66 said:
Are you sure that war with Russia is more likely than with China? NATO/Western Europe has a much larger population, combined military and economy than Russia. The Russian economy is also highly dependant on energy exports to their "enemy" in the west. Russia's military is much smaller than during the Cold War, and even ignoring the West's nuclear deterrence, Russia simply doesn't have the manpower to take and occupy all of NATO. It's simply too large and populous. Russia can't defeat the whole of NATO without WMD's and would cause their own destruction if they went nuclear.
China on the other hand is the world's most populous nation with the world's 2nd largest economy. Its likely military targets (Taiwan, rocks off their coast, North Korea in the case of a collapse, etc.) are much more limited and achievable compared to what Russia would have to take on. The most effective Western response to any Chinese aggression would also likely be with naval and air forces (including subs).
I'd suggest that the West coast might be a very important place to base at least half of our subs.
:2c:
Edited to add: Not in any way suggesting that we should NOT beef up our Atlantic and Arctic presence. In my perfect world we'd increase the size of our MPA, surface and sub-surface fleets so that we could meet any possible threats on all three coasts. Just questioning the logic of shifting all of our subs to the East coast when the argument could be made that there could be serious Chinese threats that subs would be very useful against.
I disagree with your thesis that China is a larger threat than Russia for a number of political, economic and geographic reasons which I will elaborate on:
1.
Political: China is a Peer Competitior, Russia is a Rogue Actor
It's no secret that China wishes to alter the status quo, but they are unlike Russia, a peer competitor. The RAND Corporation recently put out a paper that outlines the problem far better than I can, here is an excerpt from it:
Great power competition has returned. China and Russia have begun to reassert their influence regionally and globally:
Today, they are fielding military capabilities designed to deny America access in times of crisis and to contest our ability to operate freely in critical commercial zones during peacetime. In short, they are contesting our geopolitical advantages and trying to change the international order in their favor. However, Russia and China represent quite distinct challenges.
Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate. In contrast, China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate. Both countries seek to alter the status quo, but only Russia has attacked neighboring states, annexed conquered territory, and supported insurgent forces seeking to detach yet more. Russia assassinates its opponents at home and abroad. Russia interferes in foreign elections, subverts foreign democracies, and works to undermine European and Atlantic institutions.
In contrast, China’s growing influence is based largely on more-positive measures: trade, investment, and development assistance. Among permanent United Nations (UN) Security Council member nations, China has even become the largest contributor to UN peacekeeping operations. These attributes make China a less immediate threat but a much greater long-term challenge.
Russia can be contained, employing updated versions of defense, deterrence, information operations, and alliance relationships that held the Soviet Union at bay for half a century. China cannot be contained. Its military predominance in east Asia will grow over time, compelling the United States to accept greater costs and risks just to secure existing commitments. But it is geoeconomics, rather than geopolitics, in which the contest for world leadership will play out. It is in this former domain that the balance of global influence between the United States and China has begun shifting in China’s favor.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE310.html
Politically it makes no sense to focus Military efforts on China because it's a fools errand to do so and undermines our response to the real military threat to Canada and The West writ large, which is Russian Aggression in Europe and elsewhere. China has a large military but has shown no real willingness to use it, all of their efforts at this point have been relatively positive. China could overwhelm and rapidly invade Taiwan now if it wanted but there is no real reason to do so. China will continue to get stronger economically and continue to enhance its sphere of influence. This economic fueled growth will continue and will necessitate doing business with China. Russia has shown themselves to be a hugely destabilizing force and they have a Military that they are not afraid to use. They are a Proto-Criminal Petro State and are far more dangerous than China from a Military standpoint. They also have an imperialistic and highly militarized society.
There is an interesting book published in the 1990s in Russia called "
The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia" by Aleksander Dugin. It has become a highly read book in Russian Military and Political Elite circles and has been widely read by Russian Military Staff. You can read a bit about it here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#cite_note-HI01-1
In 2017, An Australian media source wrote that, this manifesto of sorts is starting to come true and pretty much "reads like a checklist for Putin's actions".
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/1990s-manifesto-outlining-russias-plans-is-starting-to-come-true/news-story/343a27c71077b87668f1aa783d03032c
A picture of what this book's world order end state looks like:
2.
Economics: The economic reasons why Canada should focus it's efforts towards Russia rather than China is quite simple. It lies in the fact that both Countries are commodity superpowers. The TSX is the 9th largest Stock Exchange in the World and it also lists more Mining + Oil & Gas Companies than any other exchange in the World. Canada is a World Leader when it comes to Resource Extraction and also happens to be a bastion of Free Market Capitalism and Liberal Values.
China is the World's largest market for commodities. They are much like Japan was pre-Second World War, they have an economy that is growing rapidly but are commodity poor and must import much of the resources used to fuel their manufacturing and industry. They also have a burgeoning Middle Class that has an ever increasing appetite for consumer goods and luxuries.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-staggering-demand-commodities/
How can a Country like Canada, being the commodity superpower that we are, ostracize the biggest potential future market we have for our goods and services? This makes no sense from a business or economic standpoint. Look at our trade and exports in Minerals atm:
China imports 5% of our annual mineral exports and we are heavily reliant on the American export market, which is natural given our proximity to the US but the Chinese Economy presents tremendous growth opportunities for us that just aren't being realized with an Anti-China stance.
It should be noted that Russia is also a commodity superpower but they use their resource wealth in very nefarious ways. The most recent Oil Market Crash being largely perpetuated by them walking out on OPEC which exacerbated the already tenuous position global markets were in as a result of COVID-19.
This action has had an outsized influence on us as well. It's a form of economic warfare and has crippled the Canadian Oil Sector with price of WCS dropping to below 0$ at one point. Yes Russia did temporarily cripple itself by starting the price war in the first place, but it also forced the Saudis to react and inadvertently cripple the American Shale Industry which long term, hurts everyone else far more than it will hurt Russia. Some of have said that the price war hurt Putin more but I have a feeling that long term, the facts will say otherwise.
So again, we have Russia acting as a rogue state, seeking to destabilize world commodity markets which has the knock on effect of not only weakening us seriously but also the positions of our Allies and I am to be told that China is somehow a bigger threat to us than Russia?
3.
Geography: This one is fairly self-explanatory. China is far away while Russia is more proximate. This proximity is apparent when looking at a global map centered on the Arctic Ocean which Russia has made quite clear, it views as an Ocean that it should dominate.
The Northern Sea Route is already becoming a viable shipping route and is 40% shorter than the comparable route through the Suez Canal. Russia has been making significant investments in this area and wants the Arctic for themselves.
Canada has shunned militarizing the Arctic of course and the Northwest Passage isn't yet a viable shipping route but it will become one eventually. I find it incredibly naive that we think Russia, which has shown no resistance to using Military Means everywhere else to achieve its aims elsewhere, will somehow approach our interests in the Arctic with a peaceful and cooperative approach.
All this to say, I think we, along with the Americans and others, have our guns pointed at the wrong adversary. Yes China has committed acts of subversion and stole from us, as we have also done to them but they have largely tried working within the established international framework and are rising to their natural position. Russia is a rogue actor, is highly militarized and is a very big destabilizing force in the world. They actively undermine our Allies and use force to achieve their objectives. I think they are a far bigger threat to us than the PRC.
Our lack of investment in a credible Military deterrence toward them is going to cost us dearly in the future.
