Why Europe Keeps Failing........ merged with "EU Seizes Cypriot Bank Accounts"

[Brad Sallows]

Is National Front really an "extreme right" party, or is it another case of the left painting its unwelcome cousins with the "right wing" brush?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Is National Front really an "extreme right" party, or is it another case of the left painting its unwelcome cousins with the "right wing" brush?

I'm not sure about its economics: more national socialist than conservative if I understand what little I have read. It is socially nationalist: anti-immigration, à la Enoch Powell without the intellect, maybe closer to Oswald Mosley.

 

[Good2Golf]

How long do we think it will take before Germany taps out and reverts to the DM?

Regards
G2G

 

[Edward Campbell]

How long do we think it will take before Germany taps out and reverts to the DM?

Regards
G2G

My guess is not soon, despite enormous domestic political pressure to 'decouple' from the profligate Latins; the costs of collapsing the Eurozone - and that's what a German withdrawal (followed quickly by Dutch and Finnish withdrawals) would do - would be enormous. The only question is: are the costs (to Germany) of collapsing the Eurozone greater than the costs of sustaining it?

 

[Good2Golf]

Mr. Campbell,

While I think that (West) Germans do fundamentally believe that the frustrations and challenges they experienced integrating the GDR into a unified Germany were "worth it", I'm not convinced that they have mentally ruled out absorbing a little more pain a second time -- especially if that means less long-term impact (the perpetual bail-outs, etc...) on their society's quality of life/economy, i.e. de-linking themselves from the net average drain of those profligate latins on their economy.

That said, you may well be right about "not soon."  However, if someone makes the case for a second 'investment' in time and national treasure over a suitable period, Germans are pargamatic enough as a people, that they may do so.

Regards
G2G

 

[Edward Campbell]

So, the Greeks have, finally, had the referendum they (probably) should have had 18 months ago. They have decided that they don't like hard work and saving: quelle surprise!

A few days ago former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder wrote a newspaper article (International Herald Tribune? Straits Times? South China Morning Post? - sorry I cannot remember) in which he begged Chancellor Merkel to back away from austerity and to give the French, especially, but also the Italians and Spanish what they really want: a free ride.

Why would Schröder, a sensible enough fellow, even if he is a Social Democrat, want Germany to throw its good money after bad? Because he has a bigger fear; in the article he suggested, darkly, that buying social peace, at any price, is better that the alternative, the alternative for which, I believe, Greece just voted: fascism.

I suspect that Greece is in for a few months of political turmoil, a debt default, an economic collapse, riots in the streets, a military coup and a fascist dictatorship. My guess is that none of Portugal, Spain, Italy or France are immune to the same fate. I will not be surprised if they, all four, follow Greece into fascist dictatorships, in the order in which I listed them.

 

[GAP]

Well, one of the items/promises of the new French president is that he will create 60,000 new government jobs by taxing the rich.....good luck on that....interesting times.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There was an interesting little snippert on BBC World Service in the last couple of days ~ about rapidly increasing house prices in some previously low value London neighbourhoods. Why the sudden surge in demand? French buyers paying premium prices for UK property ... the French rich and super rich already have their money safely tucked away in Switzerland and the Caribbean, now the upper middle class are bailing out.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

A few days ago former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder wrote a newspaper article (International Herald Tribune? Straits Times? South China Morning Post? - sorry I cannot remember) in which he begged Chancellor Merkel to back away from austerity and to give the French, especially, but also the Italians and Spanish what they really want: a free ride.

This is probably the article, in the International Herald Tribune, by Gerhard Schröder that you refer to. Re-produced under the usual caveats of the Copyright Act.

Op-Ed Contributor

Austerity Is Strangling Europe

By GERHARD SCHRÖDER

Published: May 3, 2012

BERLIN — The emergence of a united Europe is a process that has been going on for decades, characterized by progress but also by setbacks. There have been crises again and again in the history of European unification. Europe has always found an answer to these crises and come out stronger. It will be the same this time if the political actors face up to the challenges and muster the political will to overcome them.

Since the founding of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, the number of participating states has increased from 6 to 27. The European institutions and bodies of regulations have been steadily enlarged in parallel. For politicians in the nation states, but also on the European level, this complexity signifies a great challenge. The decision-making processes, the distribution of powers between the European Union and the nation states, and the interaction of the institutions must be simplified and regulated more clearly. Only then will it be possible to continue the integration process needed and make the European Union more capable of action.

This capability, and the ability to react more quickly to the development of financial markets, requires a European policy. The current crisis has plainly shown this. The president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, rightly speaks of a crisis of confidence, because people doubt the ability of democracy to solve urgent problems. The Union must overcome this crisis of confidence.

In the past months it has become clear that there are different speeds in the European Union. The gulf between countries that are able and willing to integrate more quickly, and countries that are applying the brakes has become wider. This development is not at all unusual: We have gone through many phases with different speeds.

In my time in office, Belgium, Germany, France and Luxembourg initiated a debate about security policy in Europe at the “Chocolate Summit” in 2003. Today we again need a solid core of states to push the integration process forward. More Europe, not less Europe: that must now be the goal. And the political leadership in the nation states has the responsibility to promote the European idea aggressively to the public.

This is true, for example, for growth initiatives, structural reforms and proposals to strengthen European institutions in relation to nation states. And above all it’s about enacting European decisions more democratically. At the moment the role of parliaments is decreasing, which could bring an erosion of democracy. We must resist this.

There are three areas in which European policy must be rerouted. These are the goals of the Nicolas Berggruen Institute’s Council on the Future of Europe, of which I am a founding member:

First, the direction of European economic and financial policy must change, away from pure austerity toward growth. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain have made substantial progress in stabilizing their finances. But the economic and political situation in these countries shows that austerity alone is not the way to resolve the crisis. On the contrary, there is a danger of half-strangling national economies with a strict policy of austerity.

This policy conceals dangers. It delegitimizes democratic politics in the nation states that find themselves faced with protests and the growth of extremist parties. But this policy is also economically wrong for the whole Union, because developments in these states affect other export economies. Germany sells more than 60 percent of its exports within the Union. We would therefore be well advised to cushion harsh austerity measures with programs for growth. For instance, revenue from a tax on financial transactions, which I support, could be used for this.

Second, we need a program of European structural reform. The international competitiveness of E.U. states must be strengthened further because emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China are catching up, but also because the disparities within the Union are too large. Bold structural reform will spur growth and create new jobs. At least, that has been our experience in Germany. With Agenda 2010 we in Germany pushed through reforms in the welfare system. Germany has changed within a few years from the “sick man of Europe” to “Europe’s engine.”

This has been helped by Germany’s unusual economic structure, which is marked by strong industry and many Mittelstand businesses. Other economies, such as France, Italy and Spain, need to follow suit with similar reforms.

And third, I believe Europe must become more politically integrated to overcome the financial crisis for the long term. The current situation makes it clear that you cannot have a common currency area without a common financial, economic and social policy. So we must work to bring about real political union in Europe with further transfer of power from the nation states.

To this end the European institutions must be reformed in the following ways:

•The European Commission must be further developed into a government elected by the European Parliament.
•The European Council must give up powers and should be transformed into an upper chamber with similar functions to the Bundesrat in Germany.
•The European Parliament must have increased powers and in future it should be elected via pan-European party lists with top candidates for the post of president of the commission.

A European Convention is part of a process of renewal that leads to Europe-wide discussions. In my time in office Germany initiated the convention to develop a European Charter of Fundamental Rights and a Constitution for Europe. The debates were about democratization, accessibility and clarification of responsibilities: the delimitation of powers between the Union and member states. Unfortunately the Constitution for Europe came to nothing, but many of its elements are present in the Treaty of Lisbon. It is now time for a core of states ready for integration to initiate a new convention for the future of Europe.

We need an integrated Europe more than ever. In global political and economic competition only a united Europe will stand a chance, because a nation state alone, even a strong Germany, is too weak. We can survive between the centers of power — the United States and China — if we continue the path to integration. Then the European Union will remain a socially, economically, culturally and politically successful community that will be a model for other regions. Europeanization is a rational political response to globalization.

Gerhard Schröder was chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005.

TMS/GLOBAL VIEWPOINT

Article Link

 

[Edward Campbell]

Yes, that's it; thanks for finding it RAFG.

You will not be surprised to learn that I do not agree with Schröder's prescriptions ... Merkel was hoping to spend quite a bit of good, hard earned German money to buy time for a miracle; Schröder is proposing to spend even more German and Dutch and Finnish and ... money to buy even more time for an even bigger miracle.

I regret to inform Germany that there ain't no tooth fairy, nor can Germany buy responsibility for irresponsible, illiberal political partners. Europe must, yet again, shatter - perhaps, just this once, without another horrible, bloody European Civil War into which Britain, America, Canada, Australia et al will be dragged.

 

[Kirkhill]

There was an interesting little snippert on BBC World Service in the last couple of days ~ about rapidly increasing house prices in some previously low value London neighbourhoods. Why the sudden surge in demand? French buyers paying premium prices for UK property ... the French rich and super rich already have their money safely tucked away in Switzerland and the Caribbean, now the upper middle class are bailing out.

Good News.  The Brits did well by the first two Huguenot influxes (Elizabethan era running away from the Guise,  Anne and the Georgian's era running away from Louis XIV et XV).

Things are looking up.

On the other hand not so chuffed about Metaxas II, Salazar II, Franco II and Petain II.  Perhaps de Valera II as well?  No.  The Micks wouldn't go for it.

Edit:  Forgot the other feller - Mussolini II.  And there you have a Royal Flush.

 

[Kirkhill]

Sorry ERC,

After reading Schroeder's paean I'm even less happy with his prescription:  Choose your poison - Clovis/Charlemagne/Barbarossa/Bourbons/Bonaparte/Itinerant Austrian Paper Hanger.

I'd rather have 5 little idiots than 1 big idiot.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The only, very faint, maybe pewter lining I see around one of of the black clouds is that François Hollande is a graduate of the mighty École des Hautes Études Commerciales de Paris and, therefore, we must assume that:

1. He knows that he's espousing nonsense; and

2. He knows, indeed is friends with, the bureaucrats who really run France, despite the elected government - they all went ot the same few schools.

The reason it isn't a silver lining is that it is not clear to me that a manager can lead the people in the right, proper direction, not when it is one in which they do not want to go.

France is a pretty healthy democracy but it is an illiberal democracy and, therefore, an unstable one.

 

[ModlrMike]

Of course, France has now decided to defecate on her feet:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975660

Socialist Francois Hollande wins French presidency

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If the voters of greece and France truly believe that they can keep spending German money with impunity....or that they can simply chain their upper middle class and wealthy class to countries that currently have no border controls as a means to pay for social programs, without something really, really bad happening...

I fear the bad thing will now happen, as Mr Campbell has alluded. The former German Chancellor's article was chilling in how casually he suggested that entire countries surrender sovereignity to Brussels. Entire countries will now sell themselves into totalitarianism, as there is no other way it can work.  And even still, it will only work for a while before the whole thing craters.

If I was the UK, I would be developing plans to flood the Chunnel.  It might be necessary, before too much longer.

 

[Good2Golf]

Of course, France has now decided to defecate on her feet:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975660

Socialist Francois Hollande wins French presidency

He [Hollande] said he would push ahead with his pledge to refocus EU fiscal efforts from austerity to "growth".

"Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option," he said.

By "austerity", I think Hollande meant to say "responsibility."


The Great European experiment is really starting to smell rather badly.  I think the Germans are going to hit their tolerance point when Greece spends all its aid money, yet asks for more.

Just a matter of time now for the big split -- RIP €...  :'(

 

[ModlrMike]

Three chilling pledges from Mr Hollande:

Hire 62000 new teachers (looks good on paper until you realize the state (taxpayer) pays the wages);

Lower retirement age from 62 to 60 (looks good to the young until you realize you now have the state (taxpayers) paying 2 extra years of benefits); and

Tax the wealthy at 80% (looks good until they all move away and you realize that theres' no more money to pay for the first two promises).

What could possibly go wrong with cutting down forests for firewood to burn down your own house?

 

[Kirkhill]

Curious timing. 

Just saw a BBC documentary on PBS where some poor blighter had a painting that experts from Buckingham Palace, Boston, New York and many, many more all agreed that the painting in question was a Monet.  They had a photograph of said painting in an earlier collection, in existance when Monet was alive, that attributed said painting to Monet. 

By all normal rules it would be recognized as a Monet and marketed as such.

In this instance though there is a family art institute in France that apparently has the final word.  Modern evidence to the contrary said institute refuses to recognize it as a Monet.

The Rationale?

Nothing to do with the evidence.  Daddy had looked at the painting in question lo these many years gone and decreed that it obviously was not up to Monet's standards, despite being signed by him, and therefore not worthy of being included in the catalogue.

In the words of the institute it was not a matter of evidence it was a matter of Connoiseurship.

And that mindset is the same as touted by Hollande and his fellow bureaucrats.

Evidence bedamned.  The future of Europe is a matter of connoiseurship.

 

[tomahawk6]

The European future is Zimbabwe where government spending is almost 98% of the GDP and hyperinflation is rampant.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I suspect that Greece is in for a few months of political turmoil, a debt default, an economic collapse, riots in the streets, a military coup and a fascist dictatorship.

I'm not quite that pessimistic, but those who could benefit appear to be already stirring the pot a bit....

Greek neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn warned rivals and reformers Sunday that "the time for fear has come" after exit polls showed them securing their entry in parliament for the first time in nearly 40 years.

"The time for fear has come for those who betrayed this homeland," Golden Dawn leader Nikos Michaloliakos told a news conference at an Athens hotel, flanked by menacing shaven-headed young men.

"We are coming," the 55-year-old said as supporters threw firecrackers outside.

According to updated exit polls, the once-marginal party will end up winning over six percent of the vote and sending 19 deputies to the 300-seat parliament on a wave of immigration and crime fears, as well as anti-austerity anger.

Exulting in the apparent breakthrough, Michaloliakos quoted Julius Caesar: "Veni, Vidi, Vici" -- I came, I saw, I conquered.

Michaloliakos said his party would fight against "world usurers" and the "slavery" of an EU-IMF loan agreement which he likened to a "dictatorship".

"Greece is only the beginning," he shouted at reporters as he walked to the news conference, accusing foreign media of spreading lies about his movement.

At the last general election in 2009, the virulently anti-immigrant group had scored just 0.29 percent.

Once part of the country's political fringe, the Hryssi Avgi (Golden Dawn) had already made headlines in 2010 by electing Michaloliakos, 55, to Athens' city council on a wave of anti-immigration tension in the capital's poorer districts.

Shortly after being elected to the council thanks to more than 10,000 votes in the Greek capital, Michaloliakos made waves by giving two fascist salutes captured by a television camera ....

My guess is that none of Portugal, Spain, Italy or France are immune to the same fate. I will not be surprised if they, all four, follow Greece into fascist dictatorships, in the order in which I listed them.

Italians of today aren't the Italians of WW2 - while admittedly happy to keep collecting pensions from 30 to 80 years of age when possible, methinks any extreme-right-wing government would be herding cats in Italy.