Who'll be the next CDS? Speculation here, please!!

[NCRCrow]

I think General Hillier did an outstanding job but its time to...GO NAVY! (insert cheesy Village people song)

 

[George Wallace]

Looks like there are three very strong contenders in that group, covering all three Elements.  That leaves us still with the quandary as to which direction the Government will take:  Rotate the appointment through the Elements or "Merit List the Candidates" ignoring the 'political' rotation through the Elements.

Anglo-Franco is a non-starter, as all at that rank are supposed to be bilingual.  For the RCD and 12me RBC members, you may remember the Addy brothers.  One was officially Anglo and the other was officially Franco.  One commanded the RCD and the other the 12me RBC.  

 

[tomahawk6]

If its to be rotated then the Navy would be up next. But Hillier might have made a deal to have another Army officer become CDS and my vote would be Lt.-Gen. Walt Natynczyk. As stated he would be another charismatic officer who seems to be on board with the modernization program which is ongoing.

 

[OldSolduer]

I strongly encourage any government bureaucrat who has anything to do with selecting the next CDS to bear this in mind:

It's time to stop appeasing various special interest groups, industrial people, bureaucrats and politicians (those both in and out of uniform).

We in the CF need the right person leading us...not "managing" us.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I agree with the right person for the job, not the 'next up' rotation between the environments.  However as politics are involved (in and out of uniform), who knows. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

I strongly encourage any government bureaucrat who has anything to do with selecting the next CDS to bear this in mind:

It's time to stop appeasing various special interest groups, industrial people, bureaucrats and politicians (those both in and out of uniform).

We in the CF need the right person leading us...not "managing" us.

That will be Kevin Lynch, Clerk of the Privy Council, and we have examined his views on DND here.

I have not seen any indication that the mistrust of DND's management abilities, which pervaded official Ottawa in the '90s, has abated. That's not the CDS' fault, but it colours perceptions about all of DND, including the CF.


[Edit to insert an "o" in 'color' in the coding.  ]

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

I agree with the right person for the job, not the 'next up' rotation between the environments. 

The problem there is who knows who the "right" person is?.......did anyone really think Mr. Hillier would shine like he did?

 

[Eye In The Sky]

The problem there is who knows who the "right" person is?.......did anyone really think Mr. Hillier would shine like he did?

True enough.  I guess I should re-word my comments to say "I hope that the DEU isn't one of the items at the top of the list, and potential solid candidates to succeed Gen Hillier are not overlooked because of the color of their DEU".

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

With that I concur.

 

[GUNS]

I think the present CDS will have some input as to who will be the next CDS.

It has been proven in the past that the "next turn" policy for CDS does not work.

Its time for our government to adopt the "best person for the position" attitude. The CDS job should be earned and not handed out because some General is next in line.

Canada's present commitment is to A'stan which is ground intensive with support from the Sea and Air elements.

If Canada finds itself in another drawn out conflict where Sea or Air are the main front line elements then the appropriated CDS could apply.

my two cents.

 

[MG34]

Lt.-Gen.  Leslie
Lt.-Gen.  Natynczyk
Seem to be the top contenders in my neck of the woods with the edge going to Lt Gen Natynczyk after his tour in Iraq and experience in counter insurgency operations. As forthe issue of  who gets the job it should be a case of the best man, not DEU colour as a place holder is not what we need at this time.

 

[Babbling Brooks]

Further to my post yesterday about Natynczyk, I'm hearing that two names have been forwarded to the politicians and bureaucrats for consideration: Natynczyk for CDS, and Watt for VCDS.  Which doesn't mean the others aren't still in the running, just that we've got some serious front-runners.

RUMINT, but I trust the people I'm hearing it from.

 

[KevinB]

Leslie is IMHO a non starter -- he hates SF, AF and Navy.  I think a lot of others know that too...

 

[2fly]

A contender would also be VAdmiral Davidson (http://www.nato.int/cv/milrep/cv-mlrp.htm).  Gen Hilliar went to Nato before CDS and did a fair amount of multi-national work.  Davidson is almost done with his Nato stint and would make a good CDS, he is another leader that is for the troops.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under he Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is an interesting opinion piece by Prof Doug Bland of Queens University:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080417.wcohillier17/BNStory/specialComment/home

Picking our top soldier is a rather casual affair
The Afghan backdrop may concentrate the PM's mind

DOUGLAS BLAND

From Thursday's Globe and Mail
April 17, 2008 at 8:41 AM EDT

Canadians might think that the selection of the chief of the defence staff - our top soldier - would greatly occupy prime ministers. After all, the CDS is the government's military adviser, sharing responsibility for the defence of Canada, managing a budget of billions of dollars, commanding more than 80,000 members of the Canadian Forces, and holding their lives in his hands. Yet, the history of how officers are selected for this office reveals a surprisingly casual process.

In interviews with every officer who has held the office since its establishment in 1964, the usual response to the question "Why were you selected as the CDS?" is simply, "I have no idea." Officers did sometimes speak about the circumstances of the day, the "luck of the timing" in the sense that they were in an advantageous position when the incumbent stood down. But all agreed that the selection process had no set criteria and no predictable outcome.

The chief of the defence staff "serves at pleasure." He (and some day she) is formally appointed by the Governor-General on the prime minister's recommendation. There is no set period of service - officers usually serve for three or four years, though some have served longer and one has held the office twice. There is no rotation by service between naval, army and air force officers - six air force, five army and two naval officers have held the office.

The National Defence Act sets out the basic duties of the CDS, but, other than custom, there is no other significant indicator to guide the prime minister's assessment of candidates. Indeed, there is no legal requirement that the CDS be an officer of the Canadian Forces. During one changeover period in the early 1980s, a Reserve general officer wrote to the minister of national defence and "volunteered" to be the CDS. His selfless gesture was turned down promptly.

Chiefs of the defence staff are usually selected after a quiet bureaucratic hunt for advice from the serving CDS, former chiefs, other senior retired officers, and civilians and academics associated with the Canadian Forces. The serious inquiry, however, takes place mostly inside the Ottawa establishment, where former and serving clerks of the Privy Council and assorted deputy ministers are asked to weigh the qualifications of candidates.

Prime ministers have often left the final recommendation to others, notably to their defence ministers and senior members of the Prime Minister's Office. In the PMO, a candidate's "political reliability" and his understanding of the government's (usually limited) interests in matters of defence policy have carried considerable weight. Like Mackenzie King, every prime minister is keen on "silent soldiers and sailors, too."

The search for General Rick Hillier's replacement will now begin in earnest and is likely to follow this informal process. Certainly, because of Canada's commitment in Afghanistan, the Prime Minister and his staff will be more engaged in reviewing the suitability of the obvious candidates - serving three-star officers - than has been common in the past.

But what might be their criteria? They probably will look at the candidates' professional qualifications, their presence in front of the media, linguistic abilities, and public statements. But one suspects they will be most interested in the candidates' sensitivities to the government's need to manage the public's perception of the war in Afghanistan.

Sensitivity in this context means finding a CDS who would be content with a somewhat diminished public profile and who would agree to calm the rhetoric in public debates between political objectives and military doctrine. The Prime Minister probably will look for an officer who is not keen to out-Hillier Gen. Hillier - that is, someone who is less personally attached than Gen. Hillier is to the history of the Canadian Forces' strategic decisions in Afghanistan.

In return, the incoming CDS will want to retain a clear distance from partisan politics and set his own agenda for the Canadian Forces. That agenda will most likely require the government to agree in advance to help the next CDS in his major challenge - rebuilding Canada's overburdened and under-resourced armed forces after 2011.

The domestic 2011 political ceasefire on Canada's future in Afghanistan provides an ideal respite during which Gen. Hillier can depart quietly - "mission accomplished." It will also allow the new CDS a relatively quiet period to change the military's relationship with the government without diminishing Gen. Hillier's enormous successes in connecting the Canadian Forces to Canadians and reinforcing the chief of the defence staff's vital roles in assisting governments in formulating and directing Canada's defence policy.

But following the usual practice might depend on MPs not insisting that their parliamentary committees should for once have a say in, or at least an opportunity to interview, the candidates who might command the Canadian Forces in dangerous times. But who would bet on such reasonable co-operation in the House of Commons today?

Douglas Bland is the author of Chiefs of Defence.

 

[Good2Golf]

You would think the CDS would have had the courtesy to give the PM advance notice so it may not be all that long before an answer is forthcoming.

I don't know, Garb...maybe the PM called him? 

"Gen Hillier, Elections Canada is on its way over to CPC headquarters with a warrant, some RCMP and a gaggle of Liberal videographers....how about you announce your retirement that we discussed earlier right now?  Please?"  ;D

2 more ¢
G2G

 

[garb811]

Bwahaha!

 

[OldSolduer]

I read with interest the above post regarding the appointment of the CDS to be conisdered a "casual affair". This may have been the case in the past....as all elements want their "turn" at being at the helm of the CF.
Once more, and I'll say this til the mods tell me to "shut it", that the time for an element having its "turn" is childish and archaic. The best person gets the job, man or woman or an alien from Mars.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

There is no rotation by service between naval, army and air force officers - six air force, five army and two naval officers have held the office.

Seems clear to me

 

[RHFC_piper]

The best person gets the job, man or woman or an alien from Mars.

Sweet....  Ray guns and robots

The new CDS and his Kill-bot.