What if a terrorist set off a nuke in DC ?

[cupper]

Interesting article in today's Washington Post about a report released today by FEMA.

What would the implications be if a 10 Kt bomb were set off in Washington DC.

Government study predicts the fallout of a nuclear terrorist attack in D.C.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-buzz/post/government-study-predicts-the-fallout-of-a-nuclear-terrorist-attack-in-dc/2012/03/16/gIQAF9ERGS_blog.html?hpid=z5

By Maggie Fazeli Fard

What would happen if a 10-kiloton nuclear weapon exploded in downtown Washington?

A recent study conducted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) analyzed the specific implications of nuking the intersection of 16th and K streets NW.

The key to the question, it seems, is the size of the bomb. Ten kilotons is considered “small” by nuclear weapon standards and would presumably leave survivors, according to the study.

Here’s a preview of what we can expect:

“The brilliant flash that can be seen for hundreds of miles can temporarily blind many of those who are outdoors even miles from a nuclear explosion. The explosion can turn several city blocks into rubble and may break glass over 10 miles away. Dust and debris may cloud the air for miles, and fallout that produces potentially lethal levels of radiation to those outdoors falls in the immediate area and up to 20 miles downwind.”

Within a half-mile radius of the detonation, called the “severe damage zone,” buildings would be destroyed, radiation would be high and the survival rate would be low. The White House, Capitol and Mall would be destroyed.

As little as three miles out, the impact would be less severe, including broken windows and minor injuries.

But the real disaster would be nuclear fallout, the result of radioactive dust poisoning many in the District, Northern Virginia and Maryland.

If it needs to be said, there is no silver lining in this scenario. A nuclear attack would “overwhelm” emergency response teams. Curiosity would lead people to flock to windows just as a blast wave shatters them, the study predicts. Fear would inspire people to flee the area, exposing them to dangerous radiation.

“Unfortunately, our instincts can be our own worst enemy,” the study says, noting that people should stay indoors and avoid driving.

Duck and cover — so reminiscent of the Cold War-era advice to get under a desk in the event of a nuclear attack — is the best advice there is.

There is a link to the full report at the end of the article, or you can go here as well.

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dhs/fema/ncr.pdf

 

[cupper]

For those not familiar with DC, 16th and K streets NW is 3 to 4 blocks due north of the White House.

 

[Stoker]

Doesn't Washington have a series of neutron detectors set up in DC to prevent this from happening?

 

[cupper]

Doesn't Washington have a series of neutron detectors set up in DC to prevent this from happening?

That is the rumor.

There was a story in the news a couple of years after 9/11 about test units that were set up in a couple of locations around the National Mall. Seems that they raised a few alarms when people reported strange looking objects left unattended.

 

[Stoker]

That is the rumor.

There was a story in the news a couple of years after 9/11 about test units that were set up in a couple of locations around the National Mall. Seems that they raised a few alarms when people reported strange looking objects left unattended.

Makes sense since they have missile batteries set up as well.

 

[tomahawk6]

What if a terrorist set off a nuke in Ottawa or any other major city in the world ? Alot of people would die and others would linger before dying. Ground zero would be a no go zone for a century. I am more concerned by an EMP detonation that would zap our electric grid and turn back the clock to the 50's. In that event maybe millions could die.

 

[cupper]

I am more concerned by an EMP detonation that would zap our electric grid and turn back the clock to the 50's. In that event maybe millions could die.

Fortunately there are very limited players that have the capability of launching a nuke to achieve a high altitude detonation needed to create an EMP.

 

[dangles]

Just wondering...what does a neutron detector do?

 

[cupper]

Just wondering...what does a neutron detector do?

It is used to detect the presence of unstable isotopes of radioactive materials through neutron decay. As the radioactive isotope goes from one state to another, it gives off neutrons which in this case can be used as a sign of the presence of a radioactive material.

It doesn't necessarily have to be bomb grade uranium or plutonium, but any radioactive material can be detected, which can be useful in protecting against a "dirty" bomb as well.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The country would probably start functioning a heck of a lot better with all those politicians out of the way. :

 

[Robert0288]

Well my place in ottawa probably has lots of lead in the paint.  I'll be fine.

 

[DBA]

What if a terrorist set off a nuke in Ottawa or any other major city in the world ? Alot of people would die and others would linger before dying. Ground zero would be a no go zone for a century. I am more concerned by an EMP detonation that would zap our electric grid and turn back the clock to the 50's. In that event maybe millions could die.

I don't think it would it be a no-go zone for a century. Devastation is not evident today in Japan (1979 article).

The EMP threat requires a special weapon if it's low yield or a high yield weapon and a delivery system that likely put it out of reach for non-state actors.

 

[tomahawk6]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-1.htm

Casualties Can vary widely
Infrastructure Damage Total within radius of 0.5 to 1.0 mile
Evacuations/Displaced Persons 450,000 or more
Contamination Approximately 3,000 square miles
Economic Impact Hundreds of billions of dollars
Potential for Multiple Events No
Recovery Timeline Years

 

[Scott]

Well my place in ottawa probably has lots of lead in the paint.  I'll be fine.

And so will you, even if you've been snacking on the chips.

rancing:

 

[The Bread Guy]

And so will you, even if you've been snacking on the chips.

rancing:

But they're so sweet ....

 

[54/102 CEF]

http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html?dll=38.88962,-77.01022&mll=38.88755,-77.02343&yd=10&zm=13&op=156

Check it out for yourself

Math wizards can wind the event down to a truck based 2000 pound IED - try it on any location you want

 

[MedCorps]

It is used to detect the presence of unstable isotopes of radioactive materials through neutron decay. As the radioactive isotope goes from one state to another, it gives off neutrons which in this case can be used as a sign of the presence of a radioactive material.

It doesn't necessarily have to be bomb grade uranium or plutonium, but any radioactive material can be detected, which can be useful in protecting against a "dirty" bomb as well.

The neutron detector really is only good for looking for Uranium 233/235 and Plutonium 239 that have a natural decay by spontaneous fission. This produces neutrons which can be detected. These are the common "nuclear materials" but not exclusive use as a dirty bomb or radiation exposure device. They make up only three of the 24 radionuclides of concern for counter terrorism purposes. You might also pick up Californium-252 with a neutron detector (which may or may not be of concern depending who you talk with, but has been found in illegal trafficking the past).

The neutron detector is normally paired with a gamma detector looking for other baddies such as Am 241 , Co 57/60, and Cs 137 (all industrial radionuclide which are subject to exploitation).  They will also find naturally occurring radioactive materials and medical radionuclides. This neutron / gamma detection combo will catch just about all of the radionuclides of interest.

The problem with fixed vehicle detectors (as reported in the open source literature) is that you need proximity and exposure time in order to conduct a detection sample. It works well at fixed points (such as boarder control points, or mail control points, where it is very common) but not so well in public areas unless you can canalize and restrict vehicles.  The numbers that are commonly thrown around is that you cannot have a vehicle path larger than 3 meters (with one detection pillar), 6 meters (with two pillars, one on each side), and passage speed cannot be greater than 8 km/h.  Obviously this limits use somewhat for mass public detection.  You also need different instrumentation if you want to scan a stationary vehicle versus a moving vehicle.

One of the problems is false alarms.  This often occurs because the person in the car has been treated with medical radionuclides. For trucks it is because they are carrying large amounts of material that has natural radioactive properties (common offenders are fertilizers, agricultural produce, tobacco products, some ores, and porcelain). Once the detector is triggered it is easy to determine that this is the case (due to the distribution of the radioactive material in the load), but it still requires the vehicle to be stopped, removed from traffic flow, and a second surveillance event to occur.

There are also some ways that one can try and defeat detectors, but that is not for public consumption.

MC

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And so will you, even if you've been snacking on the chips.

rancing:

Mmmmmmm, wall candy.

 

[opp550]

try it on any location you want

Just not in real life, okay?  >

Also related to the link: http://www.carloslabs.com/node/20

 

[muskrat89]

Interesting Executive Order. The conspiracy theorists are going nuts; I'm not sure what to make of it. It's logical on the face of it (to a degree) but did it really require an EO, vice "regular legislative process"?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-preparedness