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US Economy

An interesting prediction. If the presumptive Romney Administration were to move boldly towards a post progressive society as predicted, there would be a sharp shock as all the bureaucratic applecarts were upset, although the Reaganesque resurgence of economic growth following tax and spending cuts would certainly cushion the blow. Carefully examining the utility or even the need for government programs is also the promise of the Government of Canada, although the economic situation here allows for a more incrimental approach:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/04/13/lawrence-solomon-better-than-reagan/

Lawrence Solomon: Better than Reagan
Lawrence Solomon  Apr 13, 2012 – 8:27 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 16, 2012 7:46 AM ET

Romney will be America’s most free-market president

Mitt Romney is now the presumptive Republican nominee for president of the United States, to the chagrin of some who question his conservative credentials. Those doubters can chew on this: As president, Mitt Romney would almost surely become the staunchest free-market Republican president in U.S. history, more so than even Ronald Reagan.

The U.S. has actually elected very few Republican presidents who hewed to free-market principles, largely because protectionism was the Republican brand for most of its history: The first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, was fiercely protectionist, as were Ulysses S. Grant and other Republican successors.

Teddy Roosevelt, one of the most popular Republican presidents of all, was not only protectionist, he is known as the first “progressive” president, an inspiration to many Big Government politicians in today’s Democratic Party, including President Barack Obama. 

Of the modern Republican presidents, Eisenhower and Nixon did espouse free enterprise and did reduce the size of government, which had grown immensely under FDR’s New Deal, the Second World War and the Korean War. But they also had Big Government conceits. Eisenhower oversaw the single greatest expansion of Social Security in history, his Interstate Highway System was the largest infrastructure program in U.S. history, and he resisted pressure to cut taxes, leaving office with a top marginal income tax rate of 91%.

Nixon was a free-market menace, imposing wage and price controls, creating the Environmental Protection Agency, and vastly expanding bureaucratic regulation over the environment and the workplace. Few see either of the two Bush presidencies as exemplars of free markets.

That leaves Reagan, arguably the only free-market Republican president ever and certainly the fiercest. In his first inaugural address, he famously declared that “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem,” and he spent the next eight years trying to cut government down to size.

In the Reagan years, the top income tax rate dropped first from 70% to 50% and later to 28%, and government regulation fell out of favour. The result was the largest peacetime economic boom in American history.

But Reagan’s free-market record also left much to be desired. Government spending increased by one-third under Reagan, the gross government debt tripled, and the size of the civil service grew by 230,000. Reagan also relied on trade protectionism. On his watch, quotas and so-called “voluntary restraints” on trading partners doubled the value of imports subject to restriction. Even his great tax-cutting record was marred by tax increases — the period between his two great federal income tax cuts saw two tax increases that, taken together, amounted to the biggest tax increase ever enacted during peacetime.

Why his inconsistent record? Congress at the time was controlled by the Democrats, curbing Reagan’s hands in adopting many of the free-market policies he so clearly favoured. A president Romney would labour under no such constraints. If current polls accurately predict the November election, he will be governing with clear majorities in both Houses of Congress — Houses that have a strong Tea Party mandate, giving him the mandate and the wherewithal to fulfill his campaign promises. Those promises far exceed Reagan’s goals.

Romney promises not only to restore Reagan’s top income tax rate of 28% but also to eliminate for most Americans all taxes on capital gains, interest and dividends. He promises to reduce the size of government to 20% of GDP — less than it was under Reagan. He promises to eviscerate or eliminate the Department of Education by sending most of its functions to the states — Reagan had wanted to abolish the Department of Education, but instead saw it greatly expand under his watch.

Romney, in fact, promises to question the need for every governmental function. “My test for the federal government is this: Is this program so critical, so important that it’s worth borrowing money from China to pay for it?” he asks. On this rationale, he will be scrapping many programs, to keep another promise — to balance the budget and reduce the government debt.

Romney, if elected president, will be Reagan without the fetters of a mulish Democratic Congress. After being elected governor of Massachusetts, Romney had his aide record all of his campaign promises — he had 92 of them. Two years into his term, he published his list along with all the actions he had taken to fulfill them — all 92 of them were checked off as completed.

If Romney still has that same aide, and the same record of keeping his promises, he will become the most free-market Republican President in American history.

Financial Post
LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe.

To see Abraham Lincoln’s campaign poster championing “Protection to American Industry,” click here.
 
Tax increases on this scale will simply crush whatever sort of recovert tht the US is/might be experiencing. The Administration is making no effort to explore alternatives, has rejected the recommendations of its own panel, and the Democrat majority Senate has refused to pass a budget or propose one for over 1000 days (and thus prevented the House budget [Ryan Budget] from being implimented). It is perhaps fortunate that the process is now so muddled that a new administration will essentially have a clear hand to start with a fresh sheet of paper. The starting position will be pretty bad, with almost $7 trillion of new debt added to the books since 2008...

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2012/04/hubbard-obamas-.html

Hubbard: Obama's Budget Means 11% Tax Increase on Those Earning < $200,000

Wall Street Journal op-ed, Obama's Budget Means a Tax Increase on Everyone, by Glenn Hubbard (Dean, Columbia Business School):

Maintaining the president's higher spending levels will require raising taxes for all Americans, including an 11% increase on those earning less than $200,000.

President Obama's budget proposes to continue elevated levels of federal spending relative to GDP. So how does the president propose to pay for this?

We are told that the answer is to raise taxes on upper-income workers. Let's put aside that tax-reform advocates, including the Bowles-Simpson Deficit Commission appointed by President Obama, argue for reducing marginal tax rates, making up lost revenue by broadening the tax base. Let's focus on the arithmetic of the president's tax strategy—the Buffett Rule, plus tax increases on dividends and capital gains, plus raising the top income-tax rate to its pre-2001 level.

The Buffett Rule—designed to impose a minimum effective tax rate of up to 30% on taxpayers with annual income exceeding $1 million—would not affect many upper-income taxpayers who already pay a marginal tax rate of 35%. In its official revenue estimate, the Joint Committee on Taxation says the tax would raise about $47 billion over 10 years, or less than $5 billion per year. Maintaining the higher spending suggested by the president totals about $500 billion per year.

Now we come to the higher taxes on dividends and capital gains. The president proposes to increase the tax rate on capital gains by one-third, to 20% from 15%. He proposes to raise dividend taxes to 39.6% from 15%. The Treasury's revenue estimate from taxes on dividends and capital gains is about $242 billion over 10 years.

Next, the president wants to restore the pre-2001 tax rates for high-income individuals, including increasing the top marginal income-tax rate to 39.6% from 35%. Treasury expects this tax increase to net $442 billion over 10 years.
The president's budget also calls for phasing out exemptions and lower-bracket tax rates for higher-income taxpayers. This will raise marginal tax rates for those individuals even higher than the 39.6% described earlier. These two provisions will net $165 billion over the next decade, or some $16.5 billion a year.

Finally, the president would limit certain tax deductions for individuals with incomes over $200,000. This would net $584 billion over the next decade.
Now let's review the math. All these tax increases on upper-income taxpayers are projected to raise $148 billion per year. Viewed next to proposed additional spending of roughly $500 billion per year, or this year's federal budget deficit of $1.3 trillion, the president's budget faces an arithmetic challenge.

How big is that challenge? Maintaining the president's higher spending will require raising taxes for all Americans. Assuming the president favors raising marginal tax rates over broadening the tax base (consistent with his failure to consider the tax proposals from Bowles-Simpson), an across-the-board tax increase of 11% for taxpayers with incomes under $200,000 would be required to raise the money the president proposes to spend.
April 25, 2012 in Tax | Permalink

And the Administration has been very consistent with the messaging...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8erePM8V5U&feature=player_embedded
 
More metrics. While it is possible that the ramped up "Red" State economies might drag this Administration over the finish line in November (aggregating the data to show an overall improvement in the American economy), the declines in "Blue" states might offset any overall gains as independents see their local conditions and vote accordingly. Another possible fracture point for the Republicans to exploit in the Presidential and downline elections:

http://news.investors.com/article/610481/201205080802/blue-states-jobs-suffer-under-obama.htm?p=full

Economy: Blue States Worse Than Red Under Obama
By JOHN MERLINE , INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 05/08/2012 08:02 AM ET

Barack Obama entered the national spotlight with a rousing 2004 Democratic convention speech that talked about how it was wrong "to slice and dice our country into red states and blue states." Last week he reiterated the point in a tweet to his Twitter followers, saying that "there are no red states or blue states, just the United States."

But when it comes to the economic recovery, there has been a clear difference. It turns out that blue states have done worse economically than have red states under President Obama, according to an IBD analysis of various government economic data.

IBD compared average job growth, unemployment, changes in housing prices, per capita income and GDP growth, and gas prices for the 22 states that voted for John McCain in 2008 and the 28 states that voted for Obama .

On every indicator but one, blue states have done worse, on average, than red states.

In addition, IBD looked at the economic performance of 11 states that Real Clear Politics lists as tossups for the 2012 presidential election. Many of these purple battleground states have fared far worse than the country as a whole during the past three years.

Among the findings:

Job growth: The average increase for blue states was just 1.2% from June 2009 — the official start of the economic recovery — to March 2012. For red states, it was 1.9%. The national average was 1.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment: The jobless rate in March was 8.5% in blue states and 7.4% in red states, BLS data show. (Interpolation: The BLS data also excludes the people  no longer looking for work, unemployment (U3) is actually over 10% overall)

Income: Blue states also did a bit worse when it came to per cap ita personal pay, rising 4.27% in 2011 compared with 4.35% in red states, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis data

GDP: The one measure where blue states outperformed was in gross domestic product growth, clocking an average 2.5% increase from 2009 to 2010 vs. red states' 2.2%. State GDP figures for 2011 won't come out until June.

Home prices: People living in liberal areas suffered the most when it came to housing prices. Over the past year, the housing price index fell 3.5% in blue states. The index edged up by 0.03% in conservative states. Nationwide, it was down 2.4%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index. Over the past five years, housing prices in red states fell 7.5%, but by 18.5% in blue states.

Gas prices: Blue states also suffer when it comes to gasoline. All but one of the 10 most expensive gas states voted for Obama in 2008. In contrast, all but one of the 10 cheapest gas states voted for McCain, according to gasoline price data from the AAA's fuel gauge report. On average, blue state prices were 5% higher than those in red states.

What explains these different economic outcomes?

One possibility is that red states tend to be more business-friendly. George Mason University's Mercatus Center recently. "But in swing states, it's a different story. Republicans may be able to make some hay out of economic distress in swing states that Obama carried in 2008, such as Florida and Nevada."

Sabato did note that Virginia is doing well "and the Obama White House and campaign should be able to use the good news to their benefit in November."

There's also the question of how the faster growth in red states, if it continues, could affect the election. One possibility is that their economic speed could boost the nation's overall mood and wind up helping Obama's re-election chances.

and from the comments:

Murphy Davidson · Top Commenter · 104 years old
Easy to explain. The vast majority of the stimulus went to the blue states, with the highest amount to the purple states that went to Obama. These governments are almost all democrat run, so they went the democrat route to fix their budgets. Higher taxes, and no layoffs or reforms to state union costs. They used the stimulus to cover the problem, whereas the red states barely got any stimulus, through refusal or political chicanery. They fixed their budgets with tax cuts, pension reforms, and business friendly regulation changes. The study just shows the end result. No real surprise here.
Reply · 14 · Like· Tuesday at 2:15pm
 
Some may remember that, over six months ago, Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase) blasted Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney for, amongst other things, being too timid, an "old woman." Today Domin is eating crow, again, because JP Morgan Chase is writing off Billions and Billions in trading losses, with more write downs to come, because Dimon's "startegy" is, in his own words, ill conceived and badly executed. But he's a celebrity CEO so his investors will, most likely swallow the losses because ... because ... because they, the shareholders, are as stupid as Dimon is.

With CEOs like Dimon on Wall Street I can understand why my (privately managed) portfolio has no US financials in it.
 
Social security continues to crumble; if you thought our $500 billion unfunded federal liabilities problem was bad, this is orders of magnitude worse. For those of you who follow US electoral politics, the Democrats so called "Julia" ad, which suggests someone can go from cradle to grave on the government dime, now seems like a cruel joke:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/social-securitys-implosion-continues/?print=1

Social Security’s Implosion Continues

Posted By Tom Blumer On May 15, 2012 @ 12:17 am In Column,Elections 2012,Money | 63 Comments

An indicator of just how seriously the federal government’s financial situation has deteriorated (combined of course with the establishment press’s clear desire to emphasize “news” which might assist Dear Leader’s reelection effort) is that the dismal 2012 report [1] released by the Social Security system’s trustees on April 23 received little attention. Viewed through that perverse prism, cash deficits which “will average about $66 billion between 2012 and 2018 before rising steeply,” even before considering the $110 billion or so taken from “general (non-existent) revenues” during 2011 and 2012 to make up for the payroll tax cut, pale in comparison to the importance of higher priorities — like working up a 5,400-word report [2] riddled with errors and distortions [3] on what Mitt Romney was doing when he was a teenager.

The sad, under-reported truth is that three years into an alleged “recovery,” the long-term outlook for Social Security continues to crumble at an accelerating rate.

It’s a crackup which was decades in the making. That’s because the government has scandalously used Social Security’s annual surpluses to fund the rest of its operations since President Lyndon Johnson began “including Social Security and all other trust funds in a ‘unified budget’” in the 1960s [4]. Social Security’s so-called “Trust Funds” consist of nothing more than stacks of IOUs from the rest of a dangerously indebted government.

During fiscal 2007, a mere five years ago, the system ran a cash surplus, as tax collections exceeded benefits paid and administrative costs by $186 billion [5]. With the wave of baby boomer retirements looming on the horizon, everyone knew that these large annual surpluses couldn’t and wouldn’t last. In their 2008 report [6] covering calendar 2007, the trustees projected that the system would begin paying out more in benefits than it collected in taxes in 2017; at that point, the rest of the government would have to start making up the difference.

Instead, annual surpluses virtually vanished just two years later, thanks to the onset of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) economy [7] in roughly June of 2008. The Democratic Party’s permissive home lending-driven [8], securities fraud-enabled [9] recession, followed by the Obama administration’s failure to choose policies which would have hastened a genuine recovery and acceptably grown the economy, brought things to a head with Social Security that much sooner. In the 2010 Trustees Report on 2009 results, tax collections were only $3 billion greater [10] than benefits paid. 2010 went into the red by $49 billion, while 2011, after taking the payroll tax-cut reimbursements into account, had a deficit of $45 billion [1]. After the 2012-2018 shorfalls cited earlier, annual cash deficits are projected to head quickly into the land of triple digits. If the economy doesn’t start generating significant growth and job creation, they might even arrive as quickly as the first cash deficits.

A few years ago, the Social Security system going cash-negative, especially so quickly, might have triggered the recognition of a widely acknowledged crisis. I thought it would be treated as one in a column three years ago [11]. It hasn’t happened, even though its legitimacy as a genuine crisis is beyond reasonable dispute. Why not? I see only two reasons: A profoundly far-left Democratic administration, and a supportive and at least as far-left establishment press. This tipping point could not have occurred in a Republican or conservative presidential administration without the press and the left going into hysterics. If Barack Obama loses in November, I expect that the crisis will magically move to the front burner.

The left’s abandonment of anything resembling common sense is proceeding at a rate at least as fast as the nation’s fiscal meltdown. An ever-shrinking pool of liberals understands the basic notion that the perpetuation of their precious entitlement programs depends on a consistently robust economy to generate the tax collections necessary for its funding. Yet those who most vocally applaud the breakneck expansions of food stamps, wish to return to the traditional incentive-barren welfare as we once knew it before its reform in the mid-1990s, and most of all praise the inevitable cradle-to-grave control of health care inherent in ObamaCare, are among those who attack the nation’s successful job and taxable income creators the most stridently. Where’s the money for all of this government largesse going to come from if productive people — more properly phrased, if even more of them than have done so already — decide that working hard isn’t worth it?

Bill Clinton, for all his considerable and impeachable faults, understood the fundamental importance of having a strong economy. That understanding enabled him to let go of HillaryCare in 1994, and ultimately convinced him after a great deal of kicking and screaming into acquiescing to welfare reform. These moves, combined with an ineffective opponent, ensured his reelection in 1996. Clinton signed on to a capital gains tax cut in 1997 and signed off on the GOP Congress’s balanced budget plan formulated by then-Ohio Congressman John Kasich and pushed through by then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich. For better or worse (I believe worse, but that’s for another day in another column), the booming economy which followed saved Clinton’s presidency in 1999.

Barack Obama, his administration, and his core supporters either don’t understand the importance of having a strong economy, or don’t care to. If it’s the former, they’re merely dumber than a box of rocks and really believe that their regime of reckless spending, rhetorical excess, and regulatory overreach will be consequence-free in the long run.

It’s far more probable that Obama and his inner circle know full well that they are wrecking the very entitlement programs they profess to love so dearly. They have convinced themselves that when it all falls apart and after the dust settles, they’ll have their hands more firmly on the levers of power, which to them seems to be all that really matters. We obviously can’t afford to test that belief, and we’re running out of opportunities to prevent it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com

URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/social-securitys-implosion-continues/

URLs in this post:

[1] the dismal 2012 report: http://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/index.html

[2] a 5,400-word report: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2012/05/10/wapo-5400-words-on-mitt-romneys-high-school-years-marked-by-an-obsession-over-a-hair-cutting-incident/

[3] errors and distortions: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2012/05/11/wapo-romney-hit-piece-falling-apart-on-three-levels-heads-should-roll/

[4] in the 1960s: http://www.ssa.gov/history/BudgetTreatment.html

[5] by $186 billion: http://pjmedia.com/blog/social-security-anything-but-secure/

[6] In their 2008 report: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR08/II_highlights.html#76460

[7] the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) economy: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/07/03/the-pelosi-obama-reid-recession-porr-may-have-begun/

[8] permissive home lending-driven: http://books.google.com/books?id=MVJ42gt6RWcC&pg=PT51&lpg=PT51&dq=permissive+home+lending+caused+the+recession&source=bl&ots=PGPi456Evh&sig=KPKHzrU4Tp5j450QCeX6Kduc2RU&hl=en&sa=X&ei=y_-iT_36KemZ6AG4orGBCQ&ved=0CCQQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q&f=false

[9] securities fraud-enabled: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703278604574624681873427574.html?mod=rss_Today%27s_Most_Popular

[10] only $3 billion greater: http://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2010/II_highlights.html

[11] three years ago: http://pjmedia.com/blog/social-security-crisis-to-arrive-six-years-early/
 
One thing politicans never seem to understand is the market cannot be fooled for long; the made up numbers are not reflected in underlying market activity (and indeed, the sluggish US "recovery" and high (10% + U3) unemployment numbers seem to indicate the markets are already discounting the Administrations "official" numbers). Here is how the numbers look using normal accounting rules:

http://www.conservativecommune.com/2012/05/lies-deficits-and-even-more-irony/

Lies, Deficits and Even More Irony
By
Bruce McQuain
– May 24, 2012Posted in: Featured Stories

I’m sure you have seen the chart that’s been circulating by Rex Nutting of Marketwatch in which he claims that Obama has overseen the least growth in federal spending of any of the past few presidents. In fact what Nutting proves is the old “lies, damn lies and statistics” cliché is still true. James Pethokoukis takes his argument apart here.

Then there is this story today. It too pokes huge holes in the attempt downplay spending for the past few years during the Obama administration. In this case the story points out the accounting practices, or lack thereof, that Congress uses that would likely find any business using them accused of keeping double books:

    The typical American household would have paid nearly all of its income in taxes last year to balance the budget if the government used standard accounting rules to compute the deficit, a USA TODAY analysis finds.

    Under those accounting practices, the government ran red ink last year equal to $42,054 per household — nearly four times the official number reported under unique rules set by Congress.

    A U.S. household’s median income is $49,445, the Census reports.

    The big difference between the official deficit and standard accounting: Congress exempts itself from including the cost of promised retirement benefits. Yet companies, states and local governments must include retirement commitments in financial statements, as required by federal law and private boards that set accounting rules.

    The deficit was $5 trillion last year under those rules. The official number was $1.3 trillion. Liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and other retirement programs rose by $3.7 trillion in 2011, according to government actuaries, but the amount was not registered on the government’s books.

If you think unemployment is under reported, when it comes to the deficit, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet, brother.

$5 trillion dollars. Let that sink in a bit. If this were any business out there using standard accounting rules, that’s what they would, by law, have to report.

Congress? Well, they’re special. They get to make up the rules as they go along and then follow them only if they wish too (with the option then of again changing the rules to fit what they’ve decided to do). In fact, since today seems to be irony day, the irony is:

    “By law, the federal government can’t tell the truth,” says accountant Sheila Weinberg of the Chicago-based Institute for Truth in Accounting.

Amazing but not shocking. In fact, not even surprising. We didn’t get here by being told the truth.

Oh, and remember real unemployment is at 8.1%. (*cough, cough*)

Forward!

~McQ

Twitter: @McQandO
 
This is  the end state of the "Blue" economic and social model:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/05/25/would-the-last-person-out-of-detroit-turn-out-the-lights-oh-wait-too-late/#more-79431

Would the last person out of Detroit turn out the lights? Oh, wait, too late

Matt Gurney  May 25, 2012 – 11:55 AM ET | Last Updated: May 25, 2012 1:48 PM ET

Shuttered businesses line a downtown street in Detroit

The sad story of Detroit, which not all that long ago was one of America’s great cities, gets sadder still. Having lost 60% of its population since 1950, the one-time industrial giant is now a hollowed-out shell of its former self. According to the city’s estimates, over a quarter of its land area is abandoned — and Detroit is a geographically large city, so that’s a hell of a lot of uninhabited space. My last visit to the city a few years ago had me zipping around on various freeways that run through it, looking around in amazement as I passed from a clean, beautiful downtown through what looked like a bombed-out war zone before suddenly finding myself in attractive suburbs. It’s surreal.

As the people have fled, abandoning whole tracts of Detroit to nature and the criminal element, the city’s tax base has vapourized. Empty houses contribute no property taxes to city coffers, and depress land values among the homes still holding families in the area. A new plan to save the city, down to barely 700,000 residents (from a height of 2,000,000), will see large areas of Detroit effectively officially abandoned. And a part of that plan will be turning out the street lights.

As it is, many of the lights have gone out on their own. An estimated 40% of the street lights in Detroit are already broken, and the city doesn’t have the money to repair them even if there was any public demand for them to be in working order. Seventeen percent of the street lights date back to the 1920s and would cost hundreds of millions to repair or replace. Many others have long been stripped for their metal wiring. The city hopes to borrow enough money to replace and upgrade roughly half of the lights operating in the city, but will only do so in certain areas. It hopes this will encourage Detroit’s existing population to concentrate itself in a more economically viable, smaller core.

And this effective shuttering of whole swaths of the city won’t be done through flicking off the lights alone. The city also intends to halt road and sidewalk maintenance in “distressed” (read: abandoned) areas, concentrating available resources on those parts of the city deemed viable. State approval will be needed for some of the changes, but that’s unlikely to be a problem. What to do with Detroit is a problem for all of Michigan, which has half of its population living in or around Detroit, and frankly doesn’t have a whole lot of cash to throw at the dying city.

Some local residents are alarmed, of course, because not all of the abandoned areas are totally abandoned. There remain some who have determinedly stuck it out in their homes even as their neighbourhoods have crumbled around them. Shutting off the lights and allowing roads and sidewalks to crumble will certainly complicate their lives, and these poor people are unlikely to get much for their homes if they try to sell them. Concentrating Detroit’s population into a denser core, based around its slowly revitalizing downtown, is a logical idea, but certainly one that’s going to have real negative impacts on some of the city’s hardiest residents.

But it has to be done. In its current form, Detroit is less a city than an open-air experiment in urban decay and how governments manage slow civilizational collapse. The city is struggling to balance its books and is weighed down by an enormous debt burden of $12-billion, one that would have been difficult to manage even if it hadn’t lost well over a million people over the last 60 years. Wasting city resources keeping up neighbourhoods that hold only a few, increasingly elderly residents simply can’t be justified. It’s far from certain that this new plan will be what finally saves Detroit, but the status quo clearly isn’t sustainable.

This isn’t the first time Detroit has grappled with how to deal with its abandoned fringes. The last few years have even seen former subdivisions converted back into farmland, in a desperate effort to give the land some productive value again. But the turning out of the city’s lights is more than just an urban planning decision. It’s a deeply symbolic act. After decades of decay and violence, parts of a once-great city are truly and literally going dark at last.

National Post
mgurney@nationalpost.com
 
Saskawisconsin
Terence Corcoran  Jun 5, 2012
Article Link

A funny thing happened on the way to Wisconsin’s vote Tuesday on whether to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker and replace him with a Democrat, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Although maybe it wasn’t so funny for the state unions that backed the recall movement. Thanks to Governor Walker’s labour reforms, including elimination of automatic deduction of union dues, membership in a major Wisconsin public employee union plunged from more than 62,000 in March 2011 to below 29,000 last February.

Along with removing mandatory dues deduction, Governor Walker also curtailed rights to collective bargaining, including limiting the pay raises unions could extract for government employees to the rate of inflation. The reforms, known as Act 10, sparked one of the hardest-fought electoral contests in recent U.S. history.

Big labour unions, Bill Clinton and the Democrats flooded into Wisconsin to help overthrow Mr. Walker. On the Republican side, including a heavy Tea Party presence, millions of dollars were spent to keep Mr. Walker in office.

It was a battle that opened many eyes to the role of unions in government, and to the many privileges, perks, benefits and high salaries that government employees enjoy compared with private-sector employees. As a clash of policies and ideologies, the recall vote in Wisconsin — a centrist Democratic state through recent history — may also serve as a bellwether for the future of the union movement across America, with spillover potential into Canada, from Quebec to Ontario to Saskatchewan. Canada’s notorious Rand formula, which forces deduction of union dues by employers even for workers who decline union membership, could be vulnerable.

Brad Wall may not be Canada’s Scott Walker, but his Saskatchewan Party government last month issued a “consultation paper” on labour legislation that hints at some reforms for Saskatchewan that reflect the Wisconsin reforms. On union dues, the consultation paper asks: “Are there situations where employees should be able to opt out of the union for other than religious grounds?” And: “Are there any instances where union dues should not be collected in a situation where the employee has opted out?”
More on link
 
Just what President Obama doesn't need as he enters the 2012 campaign season: The Wall Street Journal reports that the head offices of America's major defence contractors are forecasting massive layoffs announcements "ahead of November elections if Congress fails to reach a deficit-reduction deal ...  Firms including Lockheed Martin Corp., Boeing Co. and Northrop Grumman Corp. may idle thousands of workers at the beginning of the year, they said, when more than $50 billion in new defense cuts could take effect—along with similar reductions across federal agencies."

This is, of course, just a ploy to get the president and the congress back to the negotiating table but I'm not convinced that Obama and the Tea Party can - or even want to - find enough common ground to avoid the mandated cuts.
 
Here is a pretty pickle for the Dems; the time period being talked about is the time the Democrats had control of the House and Senate, and from 2008 on, the Presidency as well. How do you run on or defend a record like that?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-americans-wealth-dropped-40-percent/2012/06/11/gJQAlIsCVV_story.html

Americans saw wealth plummet 40 percent from 2007 to 2010, Federal Reserve says

Is the U.S. economic recovery stalling?: The Labor Department reported June 1 that the nation’s economy added only 69,000 jobs in May, bringing the unemployment rate to 8.2 percent (10%+ is the actual U3 figure). Here, a look at the fallout from our troubled economy and the troubles of economies overseas.

By Ylan Q. Mui, Published: June 11The Washington Post

The recent recession wiped out nearly two decades of Americans’ wealth, according to government data released Monday, with ­middle-class families bearing the brunt of the decline.

The Federal Reserve said the median net worth of families plunged by 39 percent in just three years, from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010. That puts Americans roughly on par with where they were in 1992.

10 industries that are dying: According to an April report from IBISWorld, these industries are losing ground as outsourcing, global competition and technological innovation render them less useful or necessary.

On Recession Road: Photocasting across America with Michael S. Williamson: A Washington Post photojournalist has spent the year traveling around the country, meeting people whose lives have been altered by the flattened economy.

The data represent one of the most detailed looks at how the economic downturn altered the landscape of family finance. Over a span of three years, Americans watched progress that took almost a generation to accumulate evaporate. The promise of retirement built on the inevitable rise of the stock market proved illusory for most. Homeownership, once heralded as a pathway to wealth, became an albatross.

The findings underscore the depth of the wounds of the financial crisis and how far many families remain from healing. If the recession set Americans back 20 years, economists say, the road forward is sure to be a long one. And so far, the country has seen only a halting recovery.

“It’s hard to overstate how serious the collapse in the economy was,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “We were in free fall.”

The recession caused the greatest upheaval among the middle class. Only roughly half of middle­-class Americans remained on the same economic rung during the downturn, the Fed found. Their median net worth — the value of assets such as homes, automobiles and stocks minus any debt — suffered the biggest drops. By contrast, the wealthiest families’ median net worth rose slightly.

Americans have tried to re­balance the family budget but have found it difficult to reverse the damage.

The survey showed that fewer families are carrying credit card balances, and those who do have less debt. The median balance dropped 16 percent, from $3,100 in 2007 to $2,600 in 2010. The Fed also found that the percentage of Americans who have no debt rose to a quarter of families.

But that progress was undermined by other factors, leaving the median level of family debt unchanged. The report said more families reported taking out education loans. Nearly 11 percent said they were at least 60 days late paying a bill, up from 7 percent in 2007. And the percentage of families saddled with debts greater than 40 percent of their income stayed the same.

Not only were Americans still facing significant debts, but they were making less money. Median income fell nearly 8 percent, to $45,800, in 2010. The median value of stock-market-based retirement accounts declined 7 percent, to $44,000.

But it was the implosion of the housing market that inflicted much of the pain. The median value of Americans’ stake in their homes fell by 42 percent between 2007 and 2010, to $55,000, according to the Fed.

The poorest families suffered the biggest loss of wealth from the drop in real estate prices. But middle-class Americans rely on housing for a larger part of their net worth. For some, it accounts for just more than half of their assets. That means every step downward is felt more acutely.

Rakesh Kochhar, associate director of research at the Pew Hispanic Center, calls this phenomenon the “reverse wealth effect.” As consumers watched the value of their homes rise during the boom, they felt more confident spending money, even if they did not actually cash in on the gains. Now, the moribund housing market has made many Americans wary of spending, even if their losses are just on paper.

According to the Fed survey, that paper wealth — or what is officially called unrealized capital gains — shrank 11 percentage points, to about a quarter of Americans’ assets.

The findings track research Kochhar released last year that showed a dramatic drop in household wealth during the recession, particularly among minorities. That study found record-high disparities between whites’ wealth and that of blacks and Hispanics.

“It was turning the clock back quite a bit,” Kochhar said.

The Fed’s survey is conducted every three years. Although there have been some signs that the recovery has picked up — housing prices have begun to stabilize and unemployment has fallen — Fed economists said those improvements largely do not change the survey results.

“Recovery from the so-called Great Recession has also been particularly slow,” the report said.
 
America needed this, and Canada still needs to learn this.

The US was well on it's way to this, or a worse state, long before the housing bubble caught up with the economy. The Great Depression taught frugality to whole generations, then their great grandchildren forgot it.

Lesson learned
 
The Wall Street Journal
June 4, 2012

"As Costs Soar, Taxpayers Target Pensions of Cops and Firefighters:
Public sentiment toward the men and women in uniform has widely shifted, as many locals are up in arms over escalating pension costs for public-safety workers.":
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304821304577438452821346064.html

( This would include IAFF paramedics. )

 
 
Thucydides said:
Here is a pretty pickle for the Dems; the time period being talked about is the time the Democrats had control of the House and Senate, and from 2008 on, the Presidency as well. How do you run on or defend a record like that?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-americans-wealth-dropped-40-percent/2012/06/11/gJQAlIsCVV_story.html

Weird, is this April Fools? Have you and the Washington Post gone all occupy Thucydides? Middle class net worth has plummeted 39%, the wealthiest families net worth rose slightly, outsourcing, free trade and automation have decimated the labour market and killed 10 major industries. In that same time period 4.5 million jobs have been created and total payroll taxes have dropped.  Incomes are still dropping.

Obama is more right wing than Reagan. It is irrelevant which used car salesman becomes President. The problems in America are structural, not cyclical. The stock market is doing great. The DOW is higher than it has ever been. Nothing to fix there. The American middle class was capitalism's main market. The NEW Market is global. The period of adjustment to being poorer and less relevant will be messy in America, perhaps bloody even. Glad I don't live there.

It is an absolutely great time to be rich. The opportunities are excellent once you leave our borders. Hong Kong feels amazing. You can sense the coming prosperity in the air. The place is infected with wealth. People are starting to emigrate back to Asia for financial reasons.
 
Any time is a great time to be rich, this Administration and the previous House and (current) Senate are stifling the economy along multiple axis. Reporting the facts isn't Occupy (and realistically, the rhetoric of occupy does not match the real metrics of the economy anyway).

The heavy doses of taxation, regulatory control and crony capitalism limit the ability of the economy to shift in regard to structural changes; the very small start up companies which could be creating new opportunities and new wealth simply don't have the time, capital or manpower to do so under these conditions, while even large corporations need to devote a fair amount of internal resources to deal with the political and economic climate (or maintain the status quo). Many choose not to, sitting on their cash reserves and refusing to invest until the political chaos ends one way or another in November is a form of Capital Strike, similar to the one in 1937-38 which brought the Great Depression to its lowest point.

In fact the situation is becoming so bad that the AFL-CIO has withdrawn funding from the Democrat party for this election, showing the electoral Left is no more pleased with this Administration than the electoral Right.
 
The problem of incentives writ large:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/20/jonathan-kay-from-unbuilt-bridges-to-unfired-teachers-how-political-corruption-is-destroying-our-american-neighbour/

Jonathan Kay: From unbuilt bridges to unfired teachers — how political corruption is destroying AmericaJonathan Kay  Jun 20, 2012 – 6:34 AM ET | Last Updated: Jun 20, 2012 7:00 AM ET

Imagine, for a moment, that the Tea Party gets its wish: Not only is Barack Obama booted from office, but so too are dozens of Democratic lawmakers. Their numbers strengthened by an incoming class of rock-ribbed GOP congressman, President Mitt Romney repeals Obamacare and systematically dismantles the heavily regulated welfare state that has been built up, by Democratic and Republican administrations alike, since the New Deal.

That’s the fantasy: a small-government revolution to take America back to the libertarian blueprint created by the nation’s Founding Fathers. But it won’t happen, no matter what happens in November. That’s because, as David Frum reminded us in his recent column about the campaign to build a new Detroit-Windsor bridge, many of the Republican politicians and special-interest groups riding the Tea Party phenomenon don’t really want to get rid of government’s power to decide economic winners and losers. They just want to capture the levers of government so they can pick different winners and losers:

The existing Ambassador bridge is privately owned, and the main owner – Forbes 400 member Manuel Maroun – does not welcome competition. Even more than competition to his bridge, Maroun objects to competition for his duty-free gasoline stations. Those stations are exempt from taxes, yet sell gasoline for only marginally less than their tax-paying competition. Maroun has mounted a furious lobbying campaign against the second river crossing. He has gained some unexpected allies, including Americans for Prosperity, the Tea Party group headed by Dick Armey. The Michigan chapter of AFP posted convincing-looking (but fake) eviction notices on homes near the proposed crossing route. The group acknowledged that the tactic “was meant to startle people.” AFP refused to say whether Maroun was paying for the campaign, explaining that its donor lists were private.

Frum’s column is about a single bridge. But the example perfectly captures a much larger phenomenon that is turning American public life into a sort of massive shell game. A country that can’t build a badly needed infrastructure project without the project being nearly suffocated by political corruption is a country that is no longer fit to provide the free world with economic leadership. How long do you think it would have taken for China to build this bridge? Or even Canada?

How did America get to this point? A good place to find answers is Lawrence Lessig’s ambitious new book, Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress — and a Plan to Stop It.

Lessig is a self-confessed liberal. Yet he has written a book that transcends the conventional left-right divide. As he argues, the main problem facing America — let us call it the Meta-Problem, since Lessig identifies it as the root of Washington’s many other dysfunctionalities, as well as the breakdown of public trust in government – is the insidious way by which well-funded special interests have come to dominate the national policy-making process. This corruption of Congress, he argues, is a pathology of Democrats seeking to bloat public budgets as much as of right-wing Republicans doing the bidding of fatcat multinationals.

Lessig, who directs the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard University, is a utopian wonk who believes that government actors should make decisions primarily on the basis of rational cost-benefit analysis. (In Canadian terms, his perspective might be compared directly to that of Andrew Coyne, whose quarter-century of column writing in this country is largely dedicated to the same theme.) As Lessig surveys Washington, he sees lobbyists and distorting policy in every imaginable area of policy:

In economic and thermodynamic terms, the use of corn to produce ethanol is a pointless, and even destructive, commercial practice. Yet it persists, with enormous government subsidy, thanks to a small group of industrialists led by the Archer Daniels Midland Company. Because presidential contenders must start their heartland campaign in Iowa, ground zero for corn farming, standing up for common sense has become perversely difficult.

While the majority of climate scientists and policy experts agree that man-made global warming is a serious problem, environmental activists are swamped by the much larger influence of energy-industry lobbyists, who argue for permissive emission standards and a do-nothing approach to climate change — and who even sow doubts in the media about established science. (In 2009, environmental groups spent $22.4-million lobbying Congress. Their opponents spent seven times that amount.) Politicians, Lessig argues, should concern themselves with the “externalities” imposed by energy production — such as the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of damage that carbon combustion produces. But because such externalities cannot be monetized in the form of campaign contributions, they are largely ignored.

The key to great public education is great teachers. According to a Hoover Institute scholar whom Lessig quotes, eliminating just the bottom 6% to 8% of bad teachers would bring America’s mediocre test scores up to the standards of world-leading nations such as Finland. Yet well-funded teachers unions consistently block such moves, rigorously defending a model based on seniority and tenure. (These unions, Lessig notes, are among the largest contributors to the Democratic Party.)

Everyone agrees that a major factor in the 2008 financial crisis was the moral hazard surrounding banks that were “too big to fail.” Yet thanks to aggressive lobbying by those same banks, none of the regulation to come out of that crisis has put a cap on the size of financial institutions. “In October 2009, there were 1,537 lobbyists representing financial institutions registered in D.C., and lobbying to affect this critical legislation – 25 times the number registered to support consumer groups, unions and other proponents of strong reform,” Lessig writes. The result: Wall Street players have gotten bigger, as the rich swallowed the poor in the post-2008 shakeout. And so when the next crisis comes, taxpayers will again be on the hook for bailouts.
Given the numbers Lessig provides, it’s a wonder that American companies don’t spend more money on their lobbying operations. From 1999 to 2008, America’s financial sector spent $2.7-billion in reported federal lobbying expenses – yet it reaped many times that amount during and after the financial crisis. A 2009 academic paper found that, on average, every $1 that a company spends trying to secure a tax benefit can be expected to generate between 6$ and 20$ in “profit.”

Certainly, those are numbers the aforementioned Manuel Maroun would understand. For pennies on the gas-station dollar, he’s used lobbying and the threat of litigation to maintain a bridge monopoly that pays him windfall profits. And amazingly, he’s recruited Tea Partiers to run the propaganda campaign in the name of “free markets.”

Numbers like these should be especially alarming to laissez-faire conservatives, who sometimes imagine that capitalism wins when governments give tax breaks to companies. That principle only works if taxes decrease universally for all players. What is happening in Washington, by contrast, is a system in which entrenched industrial incumbents are leveraging their wealth and political influence to game the system in a profoundly anti-capitalist way. Drawing on the work of Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson (authors of the 2010 book Winner-Take-All Politics), Lessig argues that this growing bias toward those who are already rich helps explain America’s growing wealth inequality.

“Conservatives have always objected to people getting rich because of the government,” he writes. “It’s one thing to invent [something] and thereby become a billionaire … It’s another thing to use your financial power to capture political power, and then use political power to change the laws to make you even richer.”

Lessig concedes that corruption of one form or another always has been a prominent feature of American political life. (Indeed, he acknowledges that insofar as truly criminal brown-paper-envelope corruption goes, Washington is actually much cleaner now that it once was). But he argues that the policy-distorting effects of money have grown worse in recent decades for a variety of factors.

First, the U.S. Supreme Court decision in the 2010 case of Citizens United opened the floodgates for literally unlimited corporate political contributions. Second, the cash requirements for election campaigns have gone up by several orders of magnitude, even for rank-and-file congressmen: Whereas, as recently as 1974, an average congressman could run for re-election with a war chest of just $56,000, by 2008 the figure was $1.3-million — with much of the money going to expensive TV ads and well-paid campaign consultants. Third, lobbying has gone from a Washington sideline to a major beltway industry: In the 1970s, just 3% of retiring U.S. federal legislators became lobbyists. Now, the figure is about 50%. This career transition allows former pols to add a zero to their income level, as they buy up Georgetown mansions by hitting up their old Capitol Hill friends and colleagues on behalf of corporate clients.

Lessig doesn’t imagine that American politics-as-usual is up to the task of solving this meta-problem: American legislators, from both major parties, are simply too vested in the current system to do anything about it. And so Lessig provides readers with a menu of “guerilla” tactics they can implement to militate for change. His ultimate goal is a system that encourages politicians to move away from dependence on corporations and plutocrats, and instead solicit campaign funding from small donors. Lessig imagines a framework in which every citizen has a 100$ campaign-finance voucher that can be directed to any party or candidate the citizen chooses. (Citizens would also be able to kick in another $100 of their own money.) Under such a system, politicians would be motivated to create policies that please ordinary voters, not Bank of America or Exxon.

It’s a utopian scheme — a sort of political Hail Mary. But given America’s dire situation, drastic change seems necessary. America, once an inspiration to free-market capitalists and democrats around the world, is suffering a slow-motion political suffocation.

From this side of the bridge, it’s a sad thing to watch.

jkay@nationalpost.com

— Jonathan Kay is Managing Editor for Comment at the National Post, and a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @jonkay. This essay was adapted from a review of Republic, Lost that appears in the current edition of the Dorchester Review.
 
I was thinking of puting this into the election 2012 thread, but it seems to belong here more than there....."it's about the economy, stupid" type thinking. The numbers are kinda scary when you think about the US going down that road.......

America's coming civil war -- makers vs. takers
By Arthur Herman July 12, 2012
Article Link

“A house divided against itself cannot stand.” 

Abe Lincoln used those words in 1858 to describe a country that was careening toward civil war. Now we’re a house divided again and another civil war is coming, with the 2012 election as its Gettysburg. 

Call it America’s coming civil war between the Makers and the Takers.

On one side are those who create wealth, America’s private sector–the very ones targeted by President Obama’s tax hikes announced Monday.

On the other are the public employee unions; left-leaning intelligentsia who see the growth of government as index of progress; and the millions of Americans now dependent on government through a growing network of government transfer payments,  from Medicaid and Social Security to college loans and corporate bailouts and handouts (think GM and Solyndra).

Over the past century America’s private sector has been the source of productivity, innovation, creativity, and growth–and gave us the iPhone and iPad. The public sector has been the engine of entitlement, stagnation, and decline -- and gave us Detroit and the South Bronx. 

The private sector built the strongest economy in the world.  It armed the free world in World War Two, and then in the three decades after the war turned America into the most prosperous society history had ever seen.  It revived America in the  Reagan and Clinton years, and thanks to the Bush tax cuts brought this country back from economic collapse after 9/11.

In those same years a growing public sector, by contrast, turned Europe into a cesspool of debt, stalled economies, and chronic social dysfunction that’s set the streets of Athens -- and perhaps other European capitals--on fire. 

That’s where we’re headed, too, more rapidly than we like to think. 

That public sector–state, local, and federal -- now consumes 40% of GDP, compared to 33% just twelve years ago. It’s brought us to the point where 48% of Americans are now on some form of government handout, from 44% when Obama took office–almost a fifth more than during the Reagan years. And too many of them have been programmed to believe they have no future unless the government takes more from the Makers -- precisely what Obama promised on Monday.
More on link
 
With unemployment above 10% you would think that getting people to work would be the number one priority of the Administration. Sadly, this does not seem to be the case:



Obama to Clinton welfare reform: Drop dead
By Jennifer Rubin
President Obama is the chief executive, obligated by the Constitution to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.” Obama, however, seems to have — by executive order — altered that to read “take Care that the Laws [which he likes or wished Congress had passed] be faithfully executed. The list of laws he won’t enforce or is unilaterally amending is getting long: Defense of Marriage Act, immigration laws, voting laws, and anti-terror laws. He won’t even enforce all the provisions of his signature legislation as we’ve seen in the bushels-full of Obamacare waivers. The latest and most inexplicable gambit is his decision to undo bipartisan welfare reform.

ABC News explained: “After the Obama administration announced this week that it is opening up waivers to states from the work requirements contained in welfare reform, Republicans began to speak out against the move, complaining it completely undercuts the law. . . . Congressional Republicans decried the move as ‘a blatant violation of the law’ and contend the waivers will actually cause harm to the impoverished Americans because beneficiaries will come to rely on the handout with little motivation to seek employment.”

The outrage is bipartisan. Speaker of the House Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) released a furious statement :

By gutting the work requirements in President Clinton’s signature welfare reform law, President Obama is admitting his economic policies have failed.
“While President Clinton worked with Congress in a bipartisan way on welfare reform and economic opportunity, President Obama has routinely ignored Republican proposals, rejected House-passed jobs bills, and imposed an agenda that’s helped keep the unemployment rate above eight percent for 41 months. Instead of working with Republicans to boost job creation, the president is simply disregarding the requirement that welfare recipients find work.

“Welfare reform was an historic, bipartisan success – this move by the Obama administration is a partisan disgrace.”
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, was likewise incensed, sending a letter together with Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), head of the House Ways and Means Committee, to the Health and Human Services Department demanding an explanation. Hatch also put out a statement that read in part:

The 1996 welfare reform bill, otherwise known as the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), ended welfare as an entitlement and empowered states with the authority to create unique and robust welfare to work programs. A central feature of devolution of federal authority back to the states was a vigorous work requirement for states, including a specific set of activities that qualified as “work.”
Over the years, as states used the reduction in the welfare caseload to mitigate compliance with the 1996 TANF work requirement, the focus on vital welfare to work initiatives diminished.

In 2005, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office reported that several states listed as part of their definition of a “federal work activity” under TANF the following:
1. Bed rest
2. Personal care activities
3. Massage
4. Exercise
5. Journaling
6. Motivational reading
7. Smoking cessation
8. Weight loss promotion
9. Participating in parent teacher meetings
10. Helping a friend or relative with household tasks and errands. . . .

With unemployment remaining stuck over 8 percent (interpolation by me; U3 is over 10%), most Americans would not consider bed rest, smoking cessation classes and journaling as “work.”
You can’t make this stuff up.

Pro-reform Democrats are also stunned and dismayed. Mickey Kaus writes, objecting to dilution of the work requirements:

A great deal of effort was put into defining what qualified as work, and making sure that work actually meant work and not the various BS activities (including BS training activities) the welfare bureaucracies often preferred to substitute for work. . . . But of course the work requirements were part of what sent that general ‘signal.’ . . .

To the extent the administration’s action erodes the actual and perceived toughness of the work requirements, which it does, it sends the opposite and wrong signal.

Like Kaus, I am at a loss to explain this maneuver on political grounds. (“Requiring that welfare recipients work is a political winner — proven, again and again. . . . And in 2008, Barack Obama didn’t dare suggest that he wanted to do what he has done today. Obama’s given his opponents a huge opportunity to raise the ‘welfare’ issue, to associate him with the unpopular idea of subsidizing women who have children they can’t support, usually out of wedlock — even giving them free community college training that hardworking people who don’t go on welfare can’t get!” )

Maybe Obama is frantically trying to rev up his base, although you have to think jeopardizing the support of working voters for the prospect of gaining votes from the habitually unemployed isn’t smart. Maybe this is a case of the left hand not knowing what the far left hand is doing. In any event, it’s a blunder. How soon do you think Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will be forcing votes to overturn the work waivers?

Obama's imperious use of executive orders and refusal to enforce the laws of the land fairly and completely is a constitutional disgrace. But his policy judgment is so off-kilter that it also demonstrates Obama’s faulty approach to immigration, welfare, administration of justice, etc. The policy implications are far more politically damaging and reinforce conservatives’ fears that a second Obama term would witness a lurch to the left.

Perhaps the real clue is undoing "Clinton era" welfare reform. President Clinton has been sticking a fork in Obama repeatedly on the past several months ("I'm the only guy in the room who presented three balanced budgets...") so undoing what is arguably President Clinton's signature acheivment (although it was actually authored by Speaker Gingrich and the Republican House and Senate as part of the "Contract with America") may be spiteful political payback.
 
You need to define what employment rate you are choosing to justify your statement. The accepted rate is 8.2%.
 
The real rate (U3) is over 10%, the only reason the "accepted rate" is 8.2% is that

a: the millions of people who are unemployed but no longer looking for work have been excluded from the count, and

b. it makes the Administration look better than saying 10%.

If you want to go deeper, we could always use U6, which also includes people who are involuntarily working part time (14%) or slice the number showing youth or minority unemployment (I haven't looked lately, but the numbers are at or near 20%)
 
Reason a is used by most OECD countries - that's why it is the generally accepted measure.

Yes there are other measures, but it's not like money supply; while we commonly use 2 of the six measures of money supply (M1 and M2) we almost always all use only one for unemployment - the generally accepted one - so that we are (almost) all talking about the same thing ... except for blindly partisan politicians, of course, who use and abuse statistics willy-nilly.
 
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