He makes some valid points, but this self destruct path the GOP is going down can't be helping......
Don’t underestimate ‘President Romney’
Lawrence Solomon Mar 16, 2012
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Mitt Romney is a loser, most pundits agree. He can’t inspire his Republican base enough to seal the deal with them. He’s already turned off Independent voters through barrages of negative ads against his Republican rivals. A Romney presidency is so likely a lost cause that prominent Conservative pundit George Will argues that Republicans should instead focus on winning Congress.
Will et al., the evidence will show, are spectacularly wrong. Romney is running a masterful win-the-moderates campaign that will allow him to best Obama in the general election, even if all the stars align poorly for Republicans in November. If the stars align well, Romney could win a blowout victory, the biggest since Reagan took 49 states against Walter Mondale in 1984.
Had Romney gone after the Republican nomination as did Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and early also-rans such as Rick Perry — by throwing red meat to the Republican base — he would have easily sewn up the contest by now. Instead, knowing red meat turns off the large plurality of Americans who are moderates — his personal base — Romney decided to preserve his political capital for the general election. To protect his image as a moderate on social issues, Romney forwent a quick knockout victory against his Republican rivals in favour of slowly accumulating delegates through wins and near wins in one voting round after another. He has chosen to win the nomination by a TKO rather than a KO.
This strategy of winning on points — derided for being uninspiring arithmetic — has now given Romney more delegates than all the other Republicans combined, over one million more votes than his next-closest rival, wins in more than twice as many states and territories as his next-closest rival and an almost sure lock on the Republican nomination.
But hasn’t Romney been gravely damaged through his gruelling slugfest against fellow Republicans, as most pundits believe? To the contrary, despite all the attacks levied at Romney by his Republican rivals, polls of likely voters now show him running neck and neck against Obama. And that’s before the general election campaign has begun, and before it will be Obama’s turn to face the Romney attack machine.
People forget how weak a candidate Obama was in the 2008 presidential election campaign, despite his immense personal appeal. Until the 2008 financial meltdown in September created chaos among Republicans, Obama was actually losing in the polls against Republican candidate John McCain. In the end, Obama won with just 53% of the vote against a disorganized and disoriented Republican campaign.
Romney in 2012 will have phenomenal advantages that McCain’s campaign of 2008 lacked. The Obama of 2008 famously argued for hope and change, for a country that put its racial bigotry behind it, for a country comprised not of red states and blue states but for a United States of America. Most Americans, polls show, believe that America under Obama’s administration has become more partisan and more racially divided. Gone is Obama’s signature appeal.
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McCain couldn’t confront Obama on his record because he didn’t have one in 2008, and McCain also didn’t have the stomach for negative attack ads, not against what he rightly saw as a historic presidential run by an African-American. Romney, as the Republican race established, will have no compunction about bombarding Obama with attack ads, and given the record that Obama must now defend, Romney will have a target-rich environment. Obama’s signature piece of legislation – Obamacare – is so unpopular with the U.S. public that most want it repealed. Only 38% approve of the job Obama has done on the economy and only 26% strongly approve of his performance overall. More than 20% of Democrats have left the party since Obama’s election.
Whereas in the past most Americans absolved Obama of the poor economy, today about half hold him responsible. Then there’s potentially the biggest issue of all — the $15-trillion-and-rising debt , with more of the government debt being accumulated under Obama than under all the previous U.S. presidents combined. The debt, which many Americans fear could permanently send the country into decline by turning the U.S. into another Greece, creates a visceral fear in many Americans.
For these reasons and others, a U.S. News and World report poll earlier this year found that 33% of Americans fear Obama’s re-election, their single greatest fear, with higher taxes close behind at 31%. Only 16% expressed fear that a Republican would be elected president.
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