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Any ideas whether the pro-Gadafi-ites'll create some insurgency trouble once he's gone?
milnews.ca said:Any ideas whether the pro-Gadafi-ites'll create some insurgency trouble once he's gone?
TRIPOLI — Muammar Gaddafi was a hunted man on Monday as loyal remnants of his forces made last-ditch stands in the capital while world leaders rushed to embrace the fractious rebel movement as new masters of Libya’s oil riches.
Two days after their irregular armies launched pincer thrusts into Tripoli in tandem with an uprising in the city, Gaddafi’s tanks and sharpshooters appeared to hold only small areas, including his Bab al-Aziziya headquarters compound.
Gaddafi’s whereabouts were not known. Rebels said they held three of his sons, including his heir apparent Seif al-Islam.
Civilians, who had mobbed the streets on Sunday to cheer the end of dictatorship, stayed indoors as machinegun fire and explosions punctuated some of the heaviest fighting of the Arab Spring uprisings that have been reshaping the Middle East.
President Barack Obama said the conflict was not quite finished but that Gaddafi’s 42-year rule was over. He urged him to surrender to end the bloodshed. Obama and his NATO allies backed the six-month revolt with air power but eschewed the ground combat that cost American lives in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Your revolution is your own,” he told Libyans, offering U.S. aid but not troops and urging the rebels to avoid settling scores in blood. “The Libya you deserve is within your reach.”
Reuters correspondents witnessed firefights and clashes with heavy weapons, including anti-aircraft guns, as rebels tried to flush out snipers and pockets of resistance. Hundreds of people seem to have been killed or wounded since Saturday.
Al-Jazeera said that of three Gaddafi sons captured, one — Mohammed — had escaped. It added that the body of a fourth, military commander Khamis, might have been found along with that of powerful intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi.
The station, based in Qatar whose rulers have provided the most visible Arab support to the rebels, cited unnamed sources.
In a last, defiant, audio broadcast on Sunday before state television went off the air, Gaddafi said he was still in Tripoli, and would stay “until the end.” There has been speculation he might seek refuge in his home region around Sirte, or abroad.
It is over two months since he was last seen in public.......
Postmedia News, 23 Aug 11Friends of a Canadian freelance journalist stuck in Libya as a violent rebellion seems poised to sweep dictator Moammar Gadhafi from power say they have grave concerns for his safety after frequent communications from him stopped Monday morning. Mahdi Nazemroaya, a 29-year-old from Ottawa, has been in Tripoli for two months covering the situation in the region for a number of international news agencies, including Al Jazeera and Russia Today. "We are fearing for his life," said Michel Chossudovsky of the Centre for Research on Globalization, with which Nazemroaya is affiliated. "He is a Canadian. . . . (He's) in a hostile environment and there's no exit strategy for an independent journalist," said Chossudovsky, a professor at the University of Ottawa ....
.... a NATO warship sailed up and anchored just off the shore at Tripoli, delivering heavy weapons and debarking Al Qaeda jihadi forces, which were led by NATO officers ....
EUCOMversations (official blog of EUCOM), 23 Aug 11I spent much of last night working on what appears to be the endgame of the Libyan campaign. By the morning of 22 August, it seemed clear that the end was in sight for the Kaddaffy regime .... now we come to the endgame for this mission. As the NATO Secretary General said this morning: “The Qadhafi regime is clearly crumbling. The sooner Qadhafi realises that he cannot win the battle against his own people, the better — so that the Libyan people can be spared further bloodshed and suffering. The Libyan people have suffered tremendously under Qadhafi’s rule for over four decades. Now they have a chance for a new beginning.” There are still many challenges ahead for Libya, but it seems clear that NATO’s role in its UN mandated missions has played an important part in protecting the people of Libya from a brutal and repressive regime during a dangerous time. A new dawn is breaking in Libya, and it seems that the future of Libya will be in the hands of the Libyan people — as it should be.
milnews.ca said:I guess NATO forces are too busy to help given, as mentioned in a Centre for Research on Globalization article
Company news release, 23 Aug 11 - more from Wired.com's Danger Room blog and CBC.ca - photos of imagery also attachedWhile NATO countries fly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) high above Libya, none of these UAVs, or the vital intelligence they provide, was available to the Libyans fighting to free their country – they were fighting blind. So, they got one of their own. It can now be disclosed that the Libyan rebels have been using the Aeryon Scout Micro UAV to acquire intelligence on enemy positions and to coordinate their resistance efforts.
Mission Video
Representatives from the Transitional National Council (TNC) were looking for an imagery solution to provide to the troops on the ground. They evaluated a series of micro UAVs and chose the Aeryon Scout – and they needed it delivered immediately to those fighting at the front. Large UAVs are often flown far away from the frontline – often overseas – making it difficult to get the imagery to troops in combat. With the Aeryon Scout, the operator has direct control over the UAV and is able to see imagery in real-time.
The Aeryon Scout is a small, easy-to-fly man-packable flying robotic reconnaissance system design for operation in real-world, harsh conditions. It weighs just 3 pounds, packs into a suitcase or a backpack and can be quickly and easily deployed and operated by soldiers in the field. Instead of using joysticks, the Scout uses a map-based, touch-screen interface that allows new users to pilot the system in just minutes. The Scout essentially flies itself allowing the operator to focus on acquiring imagery ....
The Day of the Jackal
Posted By Richard Fernandez On August 22, 2011 @ 3:06 pm In Uncategorized | 47 Comments
Hanin Ghaddar [1] asks “Is the Arab Spring coming back to Lebanon?” That depends on where it’s headed. There is one fact and one question about the Arab Spring. The indisputable fact is that regimes are falling across the region. The question is in what direction they are falling? Kathryn Jean Lopez interviewed Barry Rubin at National Review [2] and got a critical estimate of the way Western diplomacy has handled things so far. In his view the Obama administration may have enabled the bad guys and crippled the good guys. Administration sources on the contrary are claiming that the international community is being vindicated all around. First Rubin:
KJL: How would you rate U.S. leadership on all of this?
RUBIN: Terrible! For a number of reasons: mishandling Egypt; empowering the Muslim Brotherhood; failing to support democratic oppositions in Turkey and Lebanon, and waiting too long to call for the downfall of the Syrian government; failing to consult with moderate Arab allies and totally dissing Saudi Arabia; not giving Israel strong support at a time when its security situation is worsening; ignoring the increasing Islamization and repression in Turkey; actually acting to help the survival of Hamas in the Gaza Strip by forcing reduced sanctions and supplying funds indirectly; and being far too slow and weak to respond to the Palestinian Authority’s unilateral independence bid.
It is really amazing how badly they’ve done. And the above paragraph is not at all a partisan critique. Each of these factors is very obvious and visible even if they aren’t being covered in the MSM very much. It can be summed up as failing to recognize the revolutionary Islamist threat; failing to support allies; being too soft on enemies; and not showing American leadership.
Obviously, the jobs and the economy will be the number-one issue in the 2012 elections. But if crises in the Middle East blow up — as I think they will — and make Obama’s foreign policy look like a disaster, might that be the number-two issue?
But that is in stark contrast to David Cortright’s evaluation at CNN [3]. He calls it a victory for the international community:
Never before has the international community demonstrated such immediate and forceful resolve in responding to government abuse against its own people.
Whether this action will serve as a model for other interventions against brutal regimes is uncertain. Some are asking if the Arab League and NATO should now take action to save the people of Syria from the murderous actions of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
That seems unlikely in the near term, but the apparent success of intervention in Libya may give pause to tyrants who claim the right to massacre their own citizens with impunity. The NATO-led action in Libya may signal a more active international commitment to opposing genocide and mass murder.
The president himself [4] gave the “international community” center stage and pride of place, specially emphasizing his skill at avoiding putting troops on the ground. “And all of this was done without putting a single U.S. troop on the ground.” But he did not claim complete victory yet for two probable reasons. The first is because he doesn’t know how post-Gaddafi Libya will turn out. Second, he may want to avoid being asked for an encore.
As we move forward from this pivotal phase, the opposition should continue to take important steps to bring about a transition that is peaceful, inclusive and just. As the leadership of the TNC has made clear, the rights of all Libyans must be respected. True justice will not come from reprisals and violence; it will come from reconciliation and a Libya that allows its citizens to determine their own destiny.
In that effort, the United States will be a friend and a partner. We will join with allies and partners to continue the work of safeguarding the people of Libya. As remaining regime elements menace parts of the country, I’ve directed my team to be in close contact with NATO as well as the United Nations to determine other steps that we can take. To deal with the humanitarian impact, we’re working to ensure that critical supplies reach those in need, particularly those who have been wounded.
Secretary Clinton spoke today with her counterparts from leading nations of the coalition on all these matters. And I’ve directed Ambassador Susan Rice to request that the U.N. secretary general use next month’s general assembly to support this important transition.
For many months, the TNC has been working with the international community to prepare for a post-Gadhafi Libya. As those efforts proceed, our diplomats will work with the TNC as they ensure that the institutions of the Libyan state are protected, and we will support them with the assets of the Gadhafi regime that were frozen earlier this year. Above all, we will call for an inclusive transition that leads to a democratic Libya.
As we move forward, we should also recognize the extraordinary work that has already been done. To the American people, these events have particular resonance. Gadhafi’s regime has murdered scores of American citizens in acts of terror in the past. Today we remember the lives of those who were taken in those acts of terror and stand in solidarity with their families. We also pay tribute to Admiral Sam Locklear and all of the men and women in uniform who have saved so many lives over the last several months, including our brave pilots that have executed their mission with skill and extraordinary bravery. And all of this was done without putting a single U.S. troop on the ground.
What neither side has mentioned in the Arab Summer calculus is oil. The presence of oil is the major external variable which might explain the activist policy toward Libya and the passive one toward Syria. Already there is expectation that Libyan oil production can be ramped up. Already the Chinese and the Russians are jockeying with the French and Italians for the rights to it.
Oil is to the Middle East as meat on the hoof is to the Serengeti plain. The cameraman on safaris see the beautiful animals, but the players are thinking in other terms: “How much meat is there on that hoof?”
The West will go to the mat for oil. While the “international community” may portray this as a victory for “human rights,” the more tangible benefit will be to European economies which are teetering on the brink of recession. Oil is that commodity which America is supposedly always going to war for but which mysteriously winds up in the possession of someone else.
In all other cases — Egypt comes to mind — the policy appears to be opportunistic. If the “street” works up, the administration will be glad to provide verbal support. But only in the case of Libya would it invest real hardware — and even then, not much of it to achieve an outcome. This suggests that the “Arab Spring” isn’t going to have a single trajectory but several. For countries in the region with large oil reserves, the Obama administration can be expected to make some effort to preserve its flow. But in countries like Lebanon or Syria, the insurgents are largely on their own. If the democrats can win, the Obama administration will gladly take credit. But if the Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamist groups win out, they will live with that too.
The underlying logic of the West’s policy since the Arab Spring started has been that of the scavenger. Except where oil is concerned, it won’t bring down a kill and then only when it is truly starving. In all other cases, it will act as opportunity presents itself, stealing a bone here and there. But it will leave the regime-hunting on the Middle Eastern plain to forces native to the region.
The Obama administration has approached events in the Middle East not as a lion but as a jackal. It reflects the weakened position of the West and not its strength. What happens next in the Arab Spring will be less due to the initiative and genius of Washington, but how it fares according to luck. If the Libyans turn against the West, will the president overturn the anti-Western elements in them? If Assad continues to hold on, will Obama push him over? If Lebanon makes a move to free itself, will Washington aid it?
The probable answers are no, no and no. That would take too much effort. “All of this will be done without putting a single U.S. troop on the ground” is necessity masquerading as virtue. It would be good if things worked out well for all concerned, but for now the West is hostage to both fortune and its own weakness. It is scouring the region for political bargains. One senses that even in the case of Libya, they hardly believed they could be so fortunate.
But they should not congratulate themselves yet. Gaddafi is gone. But who comes next?
“No Way In” print and Kindle edition at Amazon [5]
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Article printed from Belmont Club: http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez
URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/08/22/the-day-of-the-jackal/
URLs in this post:
[1] Hanin Ghaddar: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=303693
[2] National Review: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/275161/watching-tripoli-arab-spring-dominos-falling-kathryn-jean-lopez
[3] David Cortright’s evaluation at CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/08/22/cortright.obama.libya/
[4] president himself: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jloo2SaLJEn2tg86RXpJlTGiKcIA?docId=d969ef870fe54e6caa9b1a26183a4069
[5] “No Way In” print and Kindle edition at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1453892818/wwwfallbackbe-20
[6] Tip Jar or Subscribe for $5: http://wretchard.com/tipjar.html
E.R. Campbell said:Is it now time to prepare for Syria? Who will lead? Why will we go, or not?
.... here's the latest:milnews.ca said:From the "Play with the bull, don't be surprised at the horn" department....Postmedia News, 23 Aug 11Friends of a Canadian freelance journalist stuck in Libya as a violent rebellion seems poised to sweep dictator Moammar Gadhafi from power say they have grave concerns for his safety after frequent communications from him stopped Monday morning. Mahdi Nazemroaya, a 29-year-old from Ottawa, has been in Tripoli for two months covering the situation in the region for a number of international news agencies, including Al Jazeera and Russia Today. "We are fearing for his life," said Michel Chossudovsky of the Centre for Research on Globalization, with which Nazemroaya is affiliated. "He is a Canadian. . . . (He's) in a hostile environment and there's no exit strategy for an independent journalist," said Chossudovsky, a professor at the University of Ottawa ....
Funny, the statement from the Centre for Research onDozens of journalists, including a Canadian, who were stranded in a hotel in downtown Tripoli by the fighting were released Wednesday.
Journalists had been holed up inside the Rixos hotel under the watch of armed men loyal to Col. Moammar Gadhafi.
Among those released from the hotel was Mahdi Nazemroaya, a 29-year-old freelance journalist from the Ottawa area. His friend, Briton Amos, said Wednesday that Nazemroaya left the hotel with the other journalists and was "out of danger."
The Centre for Research on Globalization, for which Nazemroaya works as a correspondent, said in a statement Wednesday that he was safe aboard a chartered boat from the International Organization for Migration. It said Nazemroaya was set to return to Canada ....
(CNN) -- The gunman showed that he was human.
Most of the others who stalked the lobby of Tripoli's Rixos Hotel were young, brash, hostile Gadhafi diehards. Yet this man in his 50s, armed with a Kalashnikov, longed to see his children.
His kids were out there somewhere in the Libyan capital, he said, gunfire and explosions erupting around them.
"I really miss my family, too," CNN producer Jomana Karadsheh told him in Arabic. "I really want to go out and see my family. They're worried about me."
Tears welled in the gunman's eyes. Rebels were taking over the Libyan capital. And this man, who had known nothing but the Gadhafi regime for 42 years, wanted to go home, too.
It was in this moment that Karadsheh knew she had a chance. If the three dozen journalists being held against their will inside the five-star hotel for five days had a shot of being freed, it was now.
At 29, Karadsheh has a lifetime of experience in hostile regions. A native of Jordan who is fluent in Arabic and English, she's a stalwart of CNN's Baghdad bureau and known for her professionalism, persistence and persuasiveness.
If you encounter trouble, you want her at your side.
She'd come to Libya weeks before, meeting up with CNN Senior International Correspondent Matthew Chance. She'd built relationships with the government officials, media minders and security in the hotel, including this gunman. Now she and an Arabic-speaking cameraman from another news organization were negotiating to secure the journalists' safe release.
On her Facebook page, Karadsheh lists her favorite quote: "Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, champagne in one hand ... strawberries in the other and screaming: 'Woo Hoo! What a ride!' "
In the Rixos Hotel, Karadsheh wasn't ready for life's wild ride to end.
Phoning home to say goodbye
It had become apparent days earlier that the journalists -- from an array of news organizations, including BBC, Reuters, Fox and China's CCTV -- were prisoners of a dying Gadhafi regime.
The government officials and minders who'd monitored the journalists abandoned the hotel August 21. About 15 gunmen loyal to the regime remained behind, roaming the halls with Russian assault rifles. They told the journalists they could not leave the hotel.
Most of the loyalists were irritable, young, reckless. They adorned their weapons with the green flag of Gadhafi's regime. To avoid contact with this volatile bunch, the journalists moved to an upper floor.
A hotel chef initially took care of the group. One 21-year-old gunman -- a "nice guy," Karadsheh says -- ran through the hotel with his jeans covered in the blood of his cousin, killed in the fighting outside.
By Monday, tensions between the journalists and their captors escalated. Gunfire erupted outside the hotel, and smoke could be seen coming from the direction of Gadhafi's nearby compound. The gunmen were enraged.
"NATO spies," they shouted. "There are spies amongst the journalists!"
They walked amid the journalists, their guns drawn. They were angry, bitter.
"This could really turn out terribly for us," Chance thought.
The journalists tried not to antagonize. "We all had a calm panic, if there is such a thing," he recalled............
There was the gilded bronze statue, of course, the golden pistols and a peacock-feather flyswat topped with a gold elephant. But among all the grotesque finery seized by jubilant rebels from Muammar Gaddafi's Bab al-Aziziya compound since his ignominious flight, one item emerged yesterday that may give a more revealing insight into the dictator's thinking than all his bling.
A group of rebels accompanied by an Associated Press photographer found an album full of pictures of the former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. Here she is in a smart black suit and gold necklace, addressing an unidentified gathering, here speaking from a podium, perhaps at the UN. Here consulting with an unnamed world leader or diplomat.................
CEFCOM Info-Machine, 25 Aug 11HMCS Vancouver steams out of port, her wake frothing the Mediterranean waters. After taking the baton of Operation MOBILE from HMCS Charlottetown on 18 August, the Esquimalt-based frigate is bound for the Gulf of Sidra, off Misrata, Libya .... In Operation MOBILE, “Task Force Charlottetown” becomes “Task Force Vancouver” as HMCS Vancouver moves into the combat operations area. NATO warships patrol in plain sight to warn and deter those who would harm civilians ....