Trump administration 2024-2028

[dimsum]

Since the election is over, this is probably a better thread to discuss topics related to the 2nd Trump presidency.

First, Peter Zeihan “happened” to release this now but I think it was recorded prior to the election. This is his take on the effects of the US undocumented migrants on the labour force, and what will happen if they do get deported. Spoiler alert: Things in the US will be slower, more expensive, and inflation will rise.

https://rss.com/podcasts/zeihan/1740306/

Second, Jon Stewart’s “The Weekly Show” (his hour-long deep dive interview podcast, not comedy at all) has an episode with Prof. Heather Cox Richardson about the lessons learned from this Trump win. It’s not up on YouTube yet (usually takes a day or two) but here’s the Apple Podcast link:

Trump Won. What Now? with Heather Cox Richardson

Podcast Episode · The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart · 11/08/2024 · 1h 11m

podcasts.apple.com

It’s not so much “how did Dems lose”, but what this meant for the future state of elections in the US. Two lessons I got out of the discussion:

1. There is no point trying to reach “the middle class” - it is more reliable to double down on your base
2. Despite data showing the complete opposite, the majority of Americans voted “for a reality that doesn’t exist” (their words). They were looking to blame POTUS for things that are multi-faceted, wicked problems that affected (and still affects) most Western nations, and expecting simple answers when there are none. Trump comes in and espouses “simple” answers (tariffs, deportations) and so he wins.

Point 2 got me thinking: How would he deport 15 million (high number) undocumented people? How much money and extra personnel would that cost? When they are deported, would they then fire all those extra ICE agents since there’s no one left to deport? If not, what are they going to be doing?

 

[QV]

Yes, I think the Dems should continue to double down on their winning formula.

Trump is not going to deport 15 million people. He is going to direct ICE agents to apprehend and deport illegal aliens who have committed serious felonies and felonies, in that order. Something that hasn't been happening. How he addresses the millions of illegals that have not committed crimes in the US or their home territory is TBD.

 

[KevinB]

Trump is not going to deport 15 million people. He is going to direct ICE agents to apprehend and deport illegal aliens who have committed serious felonies and felonies, in that order. Something that hasn't been happening.

No sure what planet you are on, but that is exactly what HSI and other DHS Agencies do when notified there is an illegal who has been convicted or incarcerated

How he addresses the millions of illegals that have not committed crimes in the US or their home territory is TBD.

So status quo from current.

 

[QV]

No sure what planet you are on,

You keep saying things like this... yet here we are...

I watched a former top bureaucrat from one of those departments say on CNN last night that it was not happening in any great numbers at all.

Once that has been straightened out and progressing, and the border is tightened up, I guess that for all those that are not criminals or a threat, he finds a path to some sort of amnesty.

 

[Remius]

Since the election is over, this is probably a better thread to discuss topics related to the 2nd Trump presidency.

First, Peter Zeihan “happened” to release this now but I think it was recorded prior to the election. This is his take on the effects of the US undocumented migrants on the labour force, and what will happen if they do get deported. Spoiler alert: Things in the US will be slower, more expensive, and inflation will rise.

https://rss.com/podcasts/zeihan/1740306/

Second, Jon Stewart’s “The Weekly Show” (his hour-long deep dive interview podcast, not comedy at all) has an episode with Prof. Heather Cox Richardson about the lessons learned from this Trump win. It’s not up on YouTube yet (usually takes a day or two) but here’s the Apple Podcast link:

Trump Won. What Now? with Heather Cox Richardson

Podcast Episode · The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart · 11/08/2024 · 1h 11m

podcasts.apple.com

It’s not so much “how did Dems lose”, but what this meant for the future state of elections in the US. Two lessons I got out of the discussion:

1. There is no point trying to reach “the middle class” - it is more reliable to double down on your base
2. Despite data showing the complete opposite, the majority of Americans voted “for a reality that doesn’t exist” (their words). They were looking to blame POTUS for things that are multi-faceted, wicked problems that affected (and still affects) most Western nations, and expecting simple answers when there are none. Trump comes in and espouses “simple” answers (tariffs, deportations) and so he wins.

Point 2 got me thinking: How would he deport 15 million (high number) undocumented people? How much money and extra personnel would that cost? When they are deported, would they then fire all those extra ICE agents since there’s no one left to deport? If not, what are they going to be doing?

On point 2. It costs roughly 11k to detain then deport each person. So if 15million is the goal then just multiply by that.

Given the upcoming abandonment of Ukraine I’m sure those funds can cover some of that.

 

[dimsum]

Trump is not going to deport 15 million people.

The guy has publicly said it in his campaign. I’ll even link one of his later examples:

Trump says his mass deportation plan has ‘no price tag’

Trump’s militarized removals could cost billions while upending the economy and ripping families and communities apart

www.the-independent.com

And if it’s “the left wing news” hyping this up, this is a bit older from Fox News:

Trump discusses using military to expel illegal immigrants in second term: 'These aren't civilians'

Donald Trump said in a recent interview with TIME Magazine that he intends to use the military to remove illegal immigrants if he wins the election in November.

www.foxnews.com

I’m not sure how much clearer this can get.

 

[dimsum]

I watched a former top bureaucrat from one of those departments say on CNN last night that it was not happening in any great numbers at all.

What is “any great numbers”? There is a gulf between that and “hasn’t been happening”.

 

[QV]

What is “any great numbers”? There is a gulf between that and “hasn’t been happening”.

As in not happening nearly enough as should be. When something is done so minimally it can be said it's not happening.

 

[dimsum]

As in not happening nearly enough as should be. When something is done so minimally it can be said it's not happening.

Backlog? Not enough agents?

 

[KevinB]

Backlog? Not enough agents?

Talking to some HSI Agents - part of it is some of the arresting LEA's are releasing them on their own recognizance.
So they then go off the grid.

Unless those Cities, Counties and or States are compelled to remand them in custody until conviction or turned over to the Fed's - then unless the Trump Administration vastly increases the number of agents and they have the ability to monitor those LEA's.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Talking to some HSI Agents - part of it is some of the arresting LEA's are releasing them on their own recognizance.
So they then go off the grid.

Unless those Cities, Counties and or States are compelled to remand them in custody until conviction or turned over to the Fed's - then unless the Trump Administration vastly increases the number of agents and they have the ability to monitor those LEA's.

On the bit in yellow, would there have to be more federal infrastructure built to handle that scale of alleged influx if things go according to how it's been promised? Or not enough federal hands to manage it? Or both?

 

[dimsum]

The Jon Stewart ep I was referring to is now on YouTube

 

[OldSolduer]

Removing 11 million illegals. That is quite a task. I reckon they won't find some of them.

I would not want to be the head of that initiative.

 

[dapaterson]

Removing 11 million illegals. That is quite a task. I reckon they won't find some of them.

I would not want to be the head of that initiative.

As Chris Rock noted on SNL in 2016, Americans aren't willing to pick their own strawberries.

 

[Remius]

As Chris Rock noted on SNL in 2016, Americans aren't willing to pick their own strawberries.

Very similar to what tariffs could do. They are also not willing or able to do the jobs being done in other countries that produce the things they consume.

 

[Pelorus]

Didn't take very long for pay-to-play to start.

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call

 

[Furniture]

1. Despite data showing the complete opposite, the majority of Americans voted “for a reality that doesn’t exist” (their words). They were looking to blame POTUS for things that are multi-faceted, wicked problems that affected (and still affects) most Western nations, and expecting simple answers when there are none. Trump comes in and espouses “simple” answers (tariffs, deportations) and so he wins.

Yeah... as long as the Democrats do the "voters are too dumb to know what's good for them" routine, they will lose.

If the Democrats and their supporters are as smart as they think they are, they should be able to explain problems to voters in a way that resonates. If your solution is so opaque, and distant that the average voter can't understand it, maybe it isn't actually a solution.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The guy has publicly said it in his campaign. I’ll even link one of his later examples:

Trudeau was going to balance the budget and make government more open. Politicians say lot's of things that won't happen or happen in way other than promised.

Once deportations are up, a lot of people will leave on their own accord.

Offer flights home, but take their bio signs and warning not to return illegally or face some fun time breaking rock.

 

[brihard]

Talking to some HSI Agents - part of it is some of the arresting LEA's are releasing them on their own recognizance.
So they then go off the grid.

Unless those Cities, Counties and or States are compelled to remand them in custody until conviction or turned over to the Fed's - then unless the Trump Administration vastly increases the number of agents and they have the ability to monitor those LEA's.

Do the feds have any real power to compel local or state authorities to do that for them? I don’t know how much operational independence the various levels of police have there in terms of telling the feds to either take full custody of the prisoner, or take a hike.

Separately, how much additional capacity do federal agencies actually have to increase these numbers, and what investigative priorities would that shift resources from?

 

[Furniture]

Trudeau was going to balance the budget and make government more open. Politicians say lot's of things that won't happen or happen in way other than promised.

Once deportations are up, a lot of people will leave on their own accord.

Offer flights home, but take their bio signs and warning not to return illegally or face some fun time breaking rock.

Nah... Illegals are here to stay, and anyone who suggests doing anything about it is a fascist.

Just ask Joe or Kamala...