Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[Quirky]

I'm not sure they would vote CPC though. Younger voters (generally) lean more left.

I think they may go NDP.

Then they get jobs, start contributing to society and realize how much tax is deducted from their pay for inefficient social programs.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I'm not sure they would vote CPC though. Younger voters (generally) lean more left.

I think they may go NDP.

And if they do, that usually means a weakened LPC, which leads to a CPC minority.

I honestly think Jagmeet Singh has accepted his fate as a power broker to whoever gets into the top spot. Any dreams of an NDP majority died with Jack Layton.

 

[dimsum]

And if they do, that usually means a weakened LPC, which leads to a CPC minority.

I honestly think Jagmeet Singh has accepted his fate as a power broker to whoever gets into the top spot. Any dreams of an NDP majority died with Jack Layton.

True. I wouldn't be surprised if the LPC messaging for younger voters is "if you vote for anyone else, the CPC wins".

 

[TacticalTea]

And if they do, that usually means a weakened LPC, which leads to a CPC minority.

How?

The popular wisdom (with which I disagree) is that they'd never team up with the Bloc, so where would they get their supply and confidence votes? If the NDP surpasses the Liberals, I find it more likely that they'd form a coalition government with the Libs and Greens, with the Tories still kept away from Cabinet.

 

[The Bread Guy]

And it’s only 10% of respondents ...

... 1) less than one percentage point separating him & PMSH and 2) 4 times as many saying "Don't know".

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm not sure they would vote CPC though. Younger voters (generally) lean more left.

I think they may go NDP.

You may be falling into the “older person’s way of thinking” trap.

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www.ipolitics.ca

 

[Halifax Tar]

You may be falling into the “older person’s way of thinking” trap.

Loading... | iPolitics

www.ipolitics.ca

I was trying to find that article! Thank you.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

How?

The popular wisdom (with which I disagree) is that they'd never team up with the Bloc, so where would they get their supply and confidence votes? If the NDP surpasses the Liberals, I find it more likely that they'd form a coalition government with the Libs and Greens, with the Tories still kept away from Cabinet.

The problem that the NDP finds themselves in is the inverse of what the CPC is facing.

A lot of Dippers are disillusioned with Jagmeet Singh for becoming a lapdog. Especially during the various scandals prior and during COVID. That has pushed a lot of centre left Dippers to the Greens, and the more centre based folks to the Bloc... Especially in Quebec. As for the Greens, they have become a distraction and vote suck.

I can easily see the CPC absorbing some of the Red Tories, as well as bringing back the PPC wanderers from the last election, if they can muster a proper campaign platform that has palatable aspects to the fence sitters.

I don't see the NDP unifying with anyone, let alone themselves, because of who they got into bed with to "push policies that benefit working Canadians."

 

[ArmyRick]

I can see a situation where the Liberals win again, possibly with a majority.

The Liberals run a very effective OPPO operation on Pollievre. Lots of material to work with.

Swing voters, sick of Trudeau, but still leery of the Tories, stay home.

Suburban women still not enamoured with Pollievre and stay with Trudeau.

The Tories will only retain a handful of seats they currently hold around Quebec City.

And biggest of all, New Democrats and Greens will be absolutely scared shitless of a Tory government led by Pollievre that they vote en masse for the Liberals. NDP will be completely wiped out. Singh is no Layton. Most people now see that the Green Party is really a Liz May cult.

So unless something changes, between Tru-anon cultists, died-the-wool Liberals (looking at you, Maritimes), suburban women and scared NDP’ers and Greens, I don’t see how the Tories win.

People said Wynne was untouchable. And she took the Ontario Liberals from Majority to a minivan party

 

[RangerRay]

People said Wynne was untouchable. And she took the Ontario Liberals from Majority to a minivan party

Except the numbers aren’t showing that in places and demos the Tories need to win. And Pollievre is no Ford (I.e. he isn’t a Hell of a Guy (HOAG)).

 

[ArmyRick]

Except the numbers aren’t showing that in places and demos the Tories need to win. And Pollievre is no Ford (I.e. he isn’t a Hell of a Guy (HOAG)).

Go to Pierre's FB page and look at the reception he gets everywhere he goes with MINORITY crowds, YOUNG crowds, etc. He is way more in touch with people than Doug Ford.

Ford won in 2018 because everyone was fed up with Wynne (Hydro bills a amjor factor). Ford won again in 2022 because their was like no respectable opposition. Not Horvath or who ever the Liberal guy was.

 

[ArmyRick]

Except the numbers aren’t showing that in places and demos the Tories need to win. And Pollievre is no Ford (I.e. he isn’t a Hell of a Guy (HOAG)).

Look at the loving reception Trudeau is getting nowadays. Very warm and caring, eh? Like Hamilton.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I can easily see the CPC absorbing some of the Red Tories, as well as bringing back the PPC wanderers from the last election, if they can muster a proper campaign platform that has palatable aspects to the fence sitters.

Any kind of coherent platform would be a good start.

 

[Good2Golf]

Except the numbers aren’t showing that in places and demos the Tories need to win. And Pollievre is no Ford (I.e. he isn’t a Hell of a Guy (HOAG)).

Aren’t they?

Pollsters are starting to get wise to the impact of vote efficiency and some are including such considerations into polling structure.

We all know that popular vote doesn’t necessarily translate into seats…oh look…greatest popular vote share to the CPC…for the fourth time (electoral period) in a row…



But…unlike previously, some of the factors now look at projections of seats by the distribution of the popular vote polling. (NB. I think that 338 has typoed the seat projection #s, I think they meant something like ~143-145 for the CPC and ~130-133 for the LPC, per the statistical intervals noted), but suffice to say…the vote efficiency of the CPC appears different (ie. greater) in more recent polling than it did in the past…to wit:


…and likely why we may not hear as much bluster and bravado from pundits proclaiming the Justin may ‘give it another go, and soon!’ is how the outcome may be looking now than previously during the ‘Unneeded Election’ of 2021, as well as those before…

 

[dimsum]

Go to Pierre's FB page and look at the reception he gets everywhere he goes with MINORITY crowds, YOUNG crowds, etc. He is way more in touch with people than Doug Ford.

I wouldn't draw any conclusions from any political person/party's social media pages.

Any politician's social media page will show that they are super popular with all sorts of crowds. Those pages are curated by their media team - there is no way they would show anything that's not in a positive light.

 

[Good2Golf]

Exactly. Poilièvre’s echo chamber is well-known. Other leaders really don’t have star chambers, per se…well, maybe Elizabeth May, but, well…you know.

 

[FSTO]

True. I wouldn't be surprised if the LPC messaging for younger voters is "if you vote for anyone else, the CPC wins".

That is ALWAYS the LPC message in an election.

 

[Good2Golf]

True. I wouldn't be surprised if the LPC messaging for younger voters is "if you vote for anyone else, then CPC Harper wins".

 

[RangerRay]

Look at the loving reception Trudeau is getting nowadays. Very warm and caring, eh? Like Hamilton.

A couple dozen people with Oppositional Defiance Disorder having a hissy-fit does not a movement make. Those optics are more likely to help than hinder Trudeau.

If the Tories can make inroads with suburban types and women, and if lefties don’t flock to the Liberals in a panicked “ABC” vote, they might have chance. Until that happens, I am sceptical of their chances.

 

[mariomike]

A couple dozen people with Oppositional Defiance Disorder having a hissy-fit does not a movement make. Those optics are more likely to help than hinder Trudeau.

He lives rent-free in some heads.