Tory minority in jeopardy as opposition talks coalition. Will there be another election?

[GAP]

They would be excellent fodder for the Chicken Cannon....

 

[ModlrMike]

I voted:

Suggested Ammunition:

Trifle: for the way in which they trifled with the Canadian voters

Yesterday's Lunch: because that's how fresh their ideas are

Sour Grapes: self explanatory

 

[The_Falcon]

Apparently 680 news is reporting that Dion will step down by christmas, however the dang DND firewall is blocking my attempts to read the whole article.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Apparently 680 news is reporting that Dion will step down by christmas, however the dang DND firewall is blocking my attempts to read the whole article.

Online, they're puling stuff from the Toronto Star

Federal Liberals say that Stéphane Dion's leadership role could be coming to an early end as the party gears up for the next round of political conflict with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government.  Dion, who stayed on as interim chief after the Liberals suffered a disappointing loss in the October election, is under pressure from his caucus to rethink his current commitment to remain at the helm until a leadership convention to replace him is held in May....

and CTV.ca

Liberal MP Bob Rae will undertake a national campaign to sell the new Grit-NDP coalition, pre-empt his leadership rivals and outflank his current boss Stephane Dion, who could step down as early as next week, insiders tell CTV News.  While leadership contender Michael Ignatieff has taken a more subdued stance on the coalition - which also requires the support of the Bloc Quebecois - Rae has been a vocal proponent of the alliance.  "I hope we can just really engage in a discussion with Canadians about what's at stake here," Rae told CTV Newsnet Friday....

Here's the National Post's take

There is fresh pressure on Stephane Dion to resign, making way for a new Liberal leader to head the coalition with the New Democratic Party and head into a potential federal election in the New Year.  Liberals are in a quandary, however, about what to do if Dion does step down early - whether to appoint a caretaker leader or try to install one of three leadership candidates who are campaigning to replace Dion at a scheduled May 2 convention.  "He has to make a decision that he thinks is in the best interests of the party, the best interests of the country," Toronto MP Bryon Wilfert, a strong Dion loyalist, said in an interview Friday....

 

[SeaKingTacco]

What?  Dion step down now?  He can't do that!  Things are just starting to get interesting.  Canada needs him to stay as leader of the Liberal Party until the last possible second in May.  Write your (remaining) Liberal MP and demand that he be allowed to stay!  >

 

[Kirkhill]

geo, on the evidence this statement of yours

IMHO, the only thing Mr Harper has managed to do is completely burn his bridges within Quebec.  Existing PC members from Quebec might as well start writing their CVs between now and january cause, it'll be a hell of a fight to get reelected

.

doesn't yet seem to have the advantage of being reflective of Quebec at large.

This poll, reported today, seems to suggest the opposite.  In fact the Tories have pulled back up to 32%, overtaking the Liberals at 19%.

By a more than 2:1 margin, Canadians call for another election if the choice faced by the Governor-General were between inviting Stephane Dion to form a government and hold a fresh general election weeks after the most recent one. That is the key finding from a national representative poll completed December 4, 2008.
If an election were held today, Stephen Harper would win a large majority based on nation-wide support of 51% compared to 20% for the Liberals, 10% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 8% for the Bloc. Harper would sweep seat-rich Ontario with 53% of the vote compared to 24% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP in that province and would surpass Dion in Quebec with 32% of the vote compared to 19% for the Liberals and 35% for the Bloc.


Key factors in this lightening speed transformation of public opinion:

66% of Canadians oppose the Bloc Quebecois having a say in who forms the government;


48% have confidence in Stephen Harper as Prime Minister in the current economic climate compared to 14% for Michael Ignatieff in second place, 11% for NDP leader Jack Layton, 8% for Stephane Dion, 4% for Bob Rae, and 3% for Gilles Duceppe;


58% believe that the Coalition's real or main motivation was a power grab while 28% perceive the Opposition as honestly believing that Harper is a poor manager of the economy;


61% believe that the Liberals, following their drop in support in the October election, should not be trying to form a government.

Compass as reported on Mike Duffy Live.

With these numbers Harper would be looking at a Mulroneyesque win with a large Quebec contingent.

 

[GAP]

I don't think anybody's numbers are accurate until everything has had a couple of weeks to fade the gut reactions most are feeling...figure early to mid January for a more accurate  take.....that's without some other minor crisis/scandal stirring the pot....

 

[The Bread Guy]

What?  Dion step down now?  He can't do that!  Things are just starting to get interesting.  Canada needs him to stay as leader of the Liberal Party until the last possible second in May.  Write your (remaining) Liberal MP and demand that he be allowed to stay!   >

Tsk, tsk, tsk - so young to be so cynical  ;D

I don't think anybody's numbers are accurate until everything has had a couple of weeks to fade the gut reactions most are feeling...figure early to mid January for a more accurate  take.....that's without some other minor crisis/scandal stirring the pot....

If you're going to believe the polls-as-tea-leaves, this makes sense...

 

[ModlrMike]

I just finished reading the articles in the Start and on CTV. If anyone thinks that this is anything other than a power grab, then Bob Rae as "Captain Coalition" will quickly convince them otherwise.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't think anybody's numbers are accurate until everything has had a couple of weeks to fade the gut reactions most are feeling...figure early to mid January for a more accurate  take.....that's without some other minor crisis/scandal stirring the pot....

True enough GAP.  But, as noted, at this time, Harper doesn't seem to have been particularly harmed by this week.  Who knows what will be done with the ammunition this week supplies for future debates.  But as of this instant, it seems that Stephen has outplayed Stephane and Jack.   He is probably down one to Gilles.

 

[ModlrMike]

What?  Dion step down now?  He can't do that!  Things are just starting to get interesting.  Canada needs him to stay as leader of the Liberal Party until the last possible second in May.  Write your (remaining) Liberal MP and demand that he be allowed to stay!  >

Actually, I think that would be the best thing for the Conservatives. Just think how isenced the public would be an unlected Liberal leader attempting to form the government. How ironic.

 

[Reccesoldier]

I just finished reading the articles in the Start and on CTV. If anyone thinks that this is anything other than a power grab, then Bob Rae as "Captain Coalition" will quickly convince them otherwise.

Iggy must be laughing his ass off.  Rae has destroyed any possibility of becoming the next Liberal leader.

As someone who has supported the Conservative in this fight I think that's too bad though

 

[ModlrMike]

Iggy must be laughing his *** off.  Rae has destroyed any possibility of becoming the next Liberal leader.

As someone who has supported the Conservative in this fight I think that's too bad though

I don't know about Rae's chances. He could still pull it off, and in doing so, sent the Libs on an even more leftward trajecory. It would not surprise me to see Mr Ignatieff cross the floor.

 

[Reccesoldier]

One thing is for sure.  Stephan Dion is a dead body looking for a train to be thrown under after this latest "leadership" debacle.

 

[john10]

Actually, that may not be true. I can remember back in the summer of '04 one the national newspapers (or it could have been the Kingston Whig) publishing a letter from a senior Liberal official, to Paul Martin expressing concern about reports of fiscal mismanagement going on in Quebec. Now whether Martin received it, or not is not known, but the letter does indicate that people in the Liberal party knew that something fishy was going on in Quebec.

Of course people knew. Party members and associates were actively taking part in fraud, mismanagement and whatever else. Paul Martin called the Gomery Commission in February of 2004 to investigate these allegations.

The notion that Paul Martin, as Minister of Finance, should have known what was going on, is nonsense, usually advanced by hyper-partisan conservatives who have little clue about ministerial duties.

 

[The_Falcon]

I don't know about Rae's chances. He could still pull it off, and in doing so, sent the Libs on an even more leftward trajecory. It would not surprise me to see Mr Ignatieff cross the floor.

I can't see that happening (Ignatieff crossing the floor), Rae self destructing his own chances with liberals, I can definately see, partly based on his latest antics, add that with his prior baggage as Ontario Premier, and I can see him eventually dissappearing.

 

[FastEddy]

Moralizing Nonentity's, now theres a expression I've been looking for.

Now theres a Gentleman and a Officer.

Cheers.

 

[Zell_Dietrich]

I can't see that happening (Ignatieff crossing the floor), Rae self destructing his own chances with liberals, I can definately see, partly based on his latest antics, add that with his prior baggage as Ontario Premier, and I can see him eventually dissappearing.

Ignatieff was elected in his riding despite his 'issues', and there are many, because he was carrying the liberal banner.  His riding is as liberal red as it gets (or needs to to be a safe seat) Ignatieff crosses the floor, knowing the riding association there as I do he would be the one disappearing.  (I meant that as a joke, I am not actually suggesting they'd "send his family a bill for the bullet" but he wouldn't win the next election,  which would be just fine by me.)

Ray on the otherhand is using this collation to advance himself inside the party ranks.  This is extremely popular for the grits,  who frankly are calling for blood.  Dion in the meeting suggested that if the Tories started acting nicely he'd reexamine the options,  that is when Ray stood up and whipped up the crowd with a "strike while the iron is hot" speech.

Ray is in the safest Liberal seat in the country.  Bill Graham didn't even campain here and he got solid 60%+ of the vote.  He isn't going anywhere anytime soon.  Besides Liberals like to alternate between an Anglo leader and a francophone leader,  they haven't really added 'American intellectual dilettante' into the rotation,  so I think Ray being the Anglo is the better bet to win.

But I am still looking forward to hearing "Prime Minister Dion"  And frankly seeing the news Clip on the Daily show.

 

[Rodahn]

Actually, I think that would be the best thing for the Conservatives. Just think how isenced the public would be an unlected Liberal leader attempting to form the government. How ironic.

Actually Dion was elected, as were Layton and Duccepe, now if it were May on the other hand. What people seem to forget is that the PM's office is filled by the leader of the party with the most seats in Parliament (for the most part). The Canadian system does not elect a PM.

I must admit though, that there is a tendency for people to vote along partisan lines.

 

[Hibbsie]

I think what frustrates me the most about this entire ordeal is how little Canadian's understand about their own political system. People seem to think that we vote for a certain party or Prime Minister to gain office and that it thwarts our "freedom of speech" if the coalition forms. Both these show that Canadians know more about the American system of government than our own; In our form of government, The Westminster system, you do not vote for a PM but the individual MP's in your riding and to rule house you need the majority of seats and/or the confidence of the house. In a minority government (Like the Cons have now) that has lost the confidence of the house it is unconstitutional to continue.
All the people claiming that the coalition is unconstitutional, they are dead wrong! Not only is there a precedent for a Coalition (By Bordon who was himself conservative) Harper himself almost attempted to form an under the table coalition under the Liberal minority government.

What shocks me the most about this entire thing is it is showing our nations true colours and it hurts. Canadians need to start getting educated about our own system, we are not Americans. We do not vote like they vote and we do not have "Freedom of speech"

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081201/politics_constituion_081201/20081201?hub=QPeriod