The War in Ukraine

[brihard]

Don't be hyperbolic, you're better than that. It has nothing to do with Chamberlain.

It has to do with the simple ask, that if you're going to risk my life you at least think it out and are prepared deal with me when I'm shattered physically and/or mentally.

And that if you're willing to risk my life, you're also willing to stand beside me and field the same risk.

I'm willing to go and do what my country asks, I just want it to be sure it knows what it's asking and that it's prepared to deal with the aftermath.

The west also has a poor track record, since WW2, of getting in to fights and then turning them into money making adventures for big business, with little to show for blood spilled; and discarding the service personnel when they come home.

I’m sorry; that was a cheap shot and you didn’t deserve that.

I forgot to answer re: veterans benefits. Obviously I would strongly support resourcing VAC to any and every extent needed. Canada has done that before. You don’t know me, but I’ve been at the table advocating and pushing veterans issues with VAC before and would devotedly do so again. I would rather Canada and allies pay a smaller human cost now to curtail aggression than a much greater one later when Russia and China fail to be deterred, and armed conflict becomes unavoidable. I think a solid show of armed resolve against Russia now would be relatively cheap in human costs, if the West committed to not messing around and actually backing Ukraine as I have described.

 

[RangerRay]

Czechia to send between 800,000 to one million shells to Ukraine in the next few weeks. Should last a couple days.

Hitler's Avatar

April 1, 2024

dianefrancis.substack.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

I’m sorry; that was a cheap shot and you didn’t deserve that.

I forgot to answer re: veterans benefits. Obviously I would strongly support resourcing VAC to any and every extent needed. Canada has done that before. You don’t know me, but I’ve been at the table advocating and pushing veterans issues with VAC before and would devotedly do so again. I would rather Canada and allies pay a smaller human cost now to curtail aggression than a much greater one later when Russia and China fail to be deterred, and armed conflict becomes unavoidable. I think a solid show of armed resolve against Russia now would be relatively cheap in human costs, if the West committed to not messing around and actually backing Ukraine as I have described.

Don't sweat it.

I appreciate your advocacy for our Veterans, and I applaud that.

I think you will find we are now showing and armed resolve in the current and future commitments to Op Reassurance. I also think the sad truth is the Ukraine is not the hill the west Govs are willing to die on. It's not the equivalent of allowing the annexation of the Sudetenland again, it's just not worth it. That's my suspicion.

Now if Putin makes a move on the Baltic states or towards Poland, Finland or Romania that's a whole different story.

 

[brihard]

Don't sweat it.

I appreciate your advocacy for our Veterans, and I applaud that.

I think you will find we are now showing and armed resolve in the current and future commitments to Op Reassurance. I also think the sad truth is the Ukraine is not the hill the west Govs are willing to die on. It's not the equivalent of allowing the annexation of the Sudetenland again, it's just not worth it. That's my suspicion.

Now if Putin makes a move on the Baltic states or towards Poland, Finland or Romania that's a whole different story.

Better to prevent him from ever doing that by backing Ukraine to smoke him in the war he’s already floundering in, IMO.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Better to prevent him from ever doing that by backing Ukraine to smoke him in the war he’s already floundering in, IMO.

Admirable. I can appreciate that.

Perhaps we're coming to a Dunkirk moment, where we have to save ourselves soon because the battle of France is over..

I also think alliances and geo political manoeuvring is dictating against that.

 

[YZT580]

The farce is that they aren’t. They where all out into long term protective storage.

Now some no doubt need some parts and maintenance to bring to working order, but it’s nothing like is claimed.




There seems to be a goal in the Biden White House that sees Ukraine being able to mostly hold, but not advance.

sounds like there reaction in viet nam. Don't allow victory

 

[FJAG]

I think you will find we are now showing and armed resolve in the current and future commitments to Op Reassurance. I also think the sad truth is the Ukraine is not the hill the west Govs are willing to die on. It's not the equivalent of allowing the annexation of the Sudetenland again, it's just not worth it. That's my suspicion.

Now if Putin makes a move on the Baltic states or towards Poland, Finland or Romania that's a whole different story.

Perhaps we're coming to a Dunkirk moment, where we have to save ourselves soon because the battle of France is over..

It's not over yet. And, we should not wait for a move on the Baltics.

Do we move into the Ukraine? As it stands that's a step too far for me. Ukraine has more human resources available yet that it hasn't tapped. But they're short of materiel and that the west can and should provide while building up their own arsenals.

It seems we in North America are at least 1 and probably 2 election cycles from that happening.

One shouldn't mistake our government's reluctance with one's own beliefs and feelings as to what is appropriate. I agree, I can't see this government doing anything that doesn't translate into a vote for itself and in exciting their base. It is not defence minded and doesn't want to appear "warlike." The problem is that we have reached a point in history where, once again, it is not only necessary to appear "warlike" but to have the capability to actually wage war.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It's not over yet. And, we should not wait for a move on the Baltics.

My understanding is it's not going well for the UAF now. And they are being ground down. I stand to be corrected.

Are you calling for a preemptive strike on Rus ?

Do we move into the Ukraine? As it stands that's a step too far for me. Ukraine has more human resources available yet that it hasn't tapped. But they're short of materiel and that the west can and should provide while building up their own arsenals.

To what point ? For how long ?

If we had tons of kit to spare I would down with that, but it's just not the truth. Nor are running surpluses in the treasury. And chances are we will need money to use ourselves before 2030 to fight a war(s).

 

[Halifax Tar]

One shouldn't mistake our government's reluctance with one's own beliefs and feelings as to what is appropriate. I agree, I can't see this government doing anything that doesn't translate into a vote for itself and in exciting their base. It is not defence minded and doesn't want to appear "warlike." The problem is that we have reached a point in history where, once again, it is not only necessary to appear "warlike" but to have the capability to actually wage war.

I don't know. The Ukraine war is vote getter for the left. They seem very warlike when it suits their voting habits.

It's funny, I see lots of fighting age males and females from Ukraine in Halifax now.

 

[FJAG]

My understanding is it's not going well for the UAF now. And they are being ground down. I stand to be corrected.

Are you calling for a preemptive strike on Rus ?

If you're suggesting NATO then the answer is of course not.

To what point ? For how long ?

Until a reasonable arsenal and capability exists commensurate with our ability to do so ... which is significantly more than we commit now.

If we had tons of kit to spare I would down with that, but it's just not the truth. Nor are running surpluses in the treasury. And chances are we will need money to use ourselves before 2030 to fight a war(s).

That's why one should start now and allocate resources to both own capabilities and allied support.

So far I've heard you question and criticize other positions. I expect that you don't favour rolling over and playing dead or hiding our head in sand. What are your proposals?

 

[Halifax Tar]

If you're suggesting NATO then the answer is of course not.

Understood..

Until a reasonable arsenal and capability exists commensurate with our ability to do so ... which is significantly more than we commit now.

That's why one should start now and allocate resources to both own capabilities and allied support.

Lofty goals.

So far I've heard you question and criticize other positions. I expect that you don't favour rolling over and playing dead or hiding our head in sand. What are your proposals?

I would completely overhaul our procurement process, especially for major projects. I would start buying what ever good enough kit, all services, is out there and rebuild the CAF. I would explain to Canadians that equipping our forces is not debatable in this world. And simply has to happen. To help offset this I would make major cuts in other areas as laid out in other posts.

Once we have reached a point where the CAF is a solid middle power again, I would establish a plan to maintain and replace equipment as it becomes obsolete.

Once we reached that point we can again look at sending weapons and money to others to fight with.

 

[RangerRay]

As far as I’m concerned, as long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, we should back them to the hilt. We don’t need to send our own troops. Otherwise China will see that as an invitation to take Taiwan and Russia will continue on to Moldova, the Baltics or Poland. Then we’ll be in the fight whether we like it or not.

I am happy to contribute to Ukraine degrading Russian military capabilities so we don’t have to.

 

[FJAG]

I would completely overhaul our procurement process, especially for major projects. I would start buying what ever good enough kit, all services, is out there and rebuild the CAF. I would explain to Canadians that equipping our forces is not debatable in this world. And simply has to happen. To help offset this I would make major cuts in other areas as laid out in other posts.

Once we have reached a point where the CAF is a solid middle power again, I would establish a plan to maintain and replace equipment as it becomes obsolete.

Once we reached that point we can again look at sending weapons and money to others to fight with.

We're 90% in agreement right up to the point where I think we need to contribute as best we can now to degrade and delay the Russians as long as possible.

 

[Maxman1]

‘We Don’t Shoot Down Targets Like That Very Often’ – War in Ukraine: Update for April 2

Car bomb kills Russian official in Luhansk region. AFU splashes a $7M Russian drone over the Black Sea. Zelensky highlights drone significance and cooperation with NATO.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[QV]

Better to prevent him from ever doing that by backing Ukraine to smoke him in the war he’s already floundering in, IMO.

If Russia is floundering then there is a lot less to be worried about and the "west" need not do anymore than it's already doing.

 

[brihard]

If Russia is floundering then there is a lot less to be worried about and the "west" need not do anymore than it's already doing.

Yup, good thing Russia has no ability to course correct and adjust for a longer game, or a massive population and resource base to do it with. Your utter lack of concern is exactly what the strategic situation calls for.

China, of course, is also perfectly deterred by the current COA, which is why they continue to massively expand their navy and beef up their long range strike and amphibious capabilities.

 

[QV]

Yup, good thing Russia has no ability to course correct and adjust for a longer game, or a massive population and resource base to do it with. Your utter lack of concern is exactly what the strategic situation calls for.

China, of course, is also perfectly deterred by the current COA, which is why they continue to massively expand their navy and beef up their long range strike and amphibious capabilities.

Hey you said it. It's been a running joke about how shit the Russian war machine is... if they are so shit, why is everyone screeching about it?

 

[brihard]

Hey you said it. It's been a running joke about how shit the Russian war machine is... if they are so shit, why is everyone screeching about it?

Study your military history and explore some major strategic reversals and figure it out.

 

[QV]

If nothing changes, will Russia win in Ukraine?

 

[FJAG]

Hey you said it. It's been a running joke about how shit the Russian war machine is... if they are so shit, why is everyone screeching about it?

Primarily that Russia has absolutely no scruples about attacking other sovereign nations; has made frequent comments about reestablishing and integrating sovereign nations that are now part of NATO; and regardless of the shape it's in, has the capacity to rebuild, reorganize and take further actions when it sees the opportunity.

A viable conventional defence throughout Europe is the best course of action to discourage further incursions and the possibility of an escalation to nuclear weapons.

As @brihard said, the historical lessons are there and obvious.