The War in Ukraine

[Kirkhill]

@KevinB

FYI per request. Published a day ago.

...

I am intentionally conflating large scale and small scale operations. The Russians are as well.

They are doing whatever it takes with whatever they have to try to engineer a win. Side-by-sides and MXs are on the spectrum. As are disgruntled 14 year olds with drones.

We keep waiting for the haymaker. We're being worn down with jabs and run ragged.

 

[daftandbarmy]

@KevinB

FYI per request. Published a day ago.

...

I am intentionally conflating large scale and small scale operations. The Russians are as well.

They are doing whatever it takes with whatever they have to try to engineer a win. Side-by-sides and MXs are on the spectrum. As are disgruntled 14 year olds with drones.

We keep waiting for the haymaker. We're being worn down with jabs and run ragged.

USAF on the sidelines be like....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Seems they are consolidating their AFV reserves

 

[Czech_pivo]

They have been for years, and some have been screaming that the building is on fire, but a lot of people want to pretend everything is fine and go on with life at the mall.

Not sure where you are grabbing UAE from.
But for North Korean it is pretty clearly ICBM and Warhead technology - unsure if Vld would sell enriched uranium and plutonium at this point, I think XI may have some issues with that.


We really aren't lacking in things to launch (at least in America), we have a less than ideal number of some thing, but a fair surplus of others.


Honestly the DJI drones don't concern me, as they can be dealt with easily enough. But your conflating the issue between LSCO and insurgency above.

If you don't have tanks it's hard to roll forward - when you look at the Navy, the CIWS and RAM (etc) are a good example of what can be done when there is a will to protect against attacks like that -- stuff like the old M163 Vulcan SPAA and the German Geopard are good example of systems that are exceptional for that type of defensive work against UAS and the like.

True

It would be interesting to see if the NK's are asking Russia for any agricultural expertise or help.

I agree on the mil/tech side, but playing the long game, I'd be looking at trying to boost agricultural output and increase calories ingested by the local population. While having a bunch of shiny new long range missiles that are semi-accurate is great, being able to more effectively increase food output for the population can lead to a greater sense of commitment to 'Juche'. This in turn may very well lead to an increase in the number of babies being born, higher IQ among the younger generation, a 'taller, more fitter' overall population and possibly ensure the transition from the current leader to the next one. If I was 'Dictator for a Day', that would be a focus for me, lol. A full belly (non-bark, frog, grass full) helps remove 1 item of compliant from the general population.

 

[Skysix]

The Aussie sent a bunch of flatpack cardboard drones months and months ago. The iteration war continues. Russia copies and improved on the Australian idea and is now being copied/improved upon in turn by Ukraine.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

We all knew life in Moscow was pretty crappy, but this is getting pretty literal!

Skyscraper-high sewage plume erupts in Moscow

Ukrainian hackers again, or just 50+ year old infrastructure showing its age? Either way, it's a mess

www.theregister.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

The EU tools up...

Future European Commissioner for Defense to prepare EU for most extreme military scenarios'​

Europe must be prepared for "the most extreme military scenarios." Specifically, more steps need to be taken to increase defense production.

This statement was made by Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Andrius Kubilius, who has been nominated for the position of European Commissioner for Defense and Space in the new European Commission, in an interview with Ukrinform.

Kubilius said that Russia, which initiated an unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine, is redirecting its economy toward a military footing. This situation requires consolidation of efforts and political initiative from the European community.

"My job description (as future Commissioner — ed.) begins with the words: 'Europe must be prepared for the most extreme military scenarios.' This means Europe must be ready for any military aggression," said the future commissioner.

He said that this requires a clear assessment of the resources available to the EU for defense. In particular, Europe now needs to take more steps to increase defense production.

"We've taken certain steps, increased defense production, but more must be done, as similar issues exist in other sectors of the defense industry. That’s why my responsibility and portfolio will be largely focused on addressing these problems," Kubilius said.

MSN

 

[Cloud Cover]

Not support direct from the UAE government, but new equipment is showing up in Russia from Streit Group from the UAE. Wouldn't be the first time that a government turned a blind eye to the questionable sales of a national champion corporation...

Russia gets armored vehicles from UAE manufacturer

Recent video footage circulating on Russian social media appears to confirm a new shipment of Streit Group-manufactured armored vehicles delivered to Russian forces. One prominent Russian military blogger, going by the name Voennyi Osvedomitel, said: "Presumably, a batch of various armored...

defence-blog.com

Somebody in UAE is going to get their head lopped off.

 

[childs56]

Nothing we have provided at this point carries a nuclear warhead.

The concerns are to do with direct attacks on Moscow and how that could be perceived as a threat to their state.

Putin won’t risk a nuclear exchange, for he’s seen how our missiles work on minor things that we don’t spend as money one, and given his record, I don’t think he’d want o bet enough of his work.

I am 50/50 if he is dumb enough to do so.

 

[Rudburg]

The concerns are to do with direct attacks on Moscow and how that could be perceived as a threat to their state.

I am 50/50 if he is dumb enough to do so.

The Russians understand the cost/benefit calculus of a potential nuclear war. Their doctrine for the use of their strategic weapons is explicit and reasonable - basically, they are last ditch weapons to be used to preserve the survival of the state, or to defend against WMD attack. It's probably safe to conclude that the Russians are very unlikely to break out their strategic nuclear weapons short of total military collapse, ie NATO troops moving unopposed in the direction of Moscow.

However, their stated policies have been quite vague about how they might use their tactical nuclear arsenal, and that omission is probably deliberate. Uncertainty can create deterrence just as effectively as a clear and unambiguous threat.

 

[McG]

Moscow has already been struck. It is demonstrably not a red-line that triggers a nuclear response.

 

[Val St]

SU 57 vs F 35 production line



No one been touching aspect of "big bluff".
In past former soviet and now russia creates image of their military superiority on the bluff. Bluffing, stealing, lying is foundation of commie based political systems, independently of geolocation.

For us main problem - today's Western system it's been run by stockholders who doesn't give a shit about long term consequences of their todays' acts.
President Reagan battled one evil empire just that his successors did nourish to ascension another one by providing finances, hi-tech inventions, work for overseas taxpayers, etc?

 

[Val St]

Green or not these are fresh troops, with high morale, and well motivated.

Can you imagine for moment yourself as NK's troop in Ukraine?
You been forcefully send thousands mile away to fight and could be killed for foreign unknown to you country and their elite. On top of that you wont see any paycheck cause that money will been send to your government.
How much motivation you'll have?

 

[KevinB]

However, their stated policies have been quite vague about how they might use their tactical nuclear arsenal, and that omission is probably deliberate. Uncertainty can create deterrence just as effectively as a clear and unambiguous threat.

There tactical nuclear doctrine is actually quite clear. But we’ve seen multiple examples of then ignoring it already, as by doctrine they should have used them on two perhaps three occasions already. I believe it’s been made very clear that using a nuclear weapon, even a relatively low yield one in this conflict will result in a dramatic shift in NATO’s (and China’s) current positions of support.

Of course there have been countless examples of Russia and others using Chemical Weapons that Doctrinally we (USA) have a Tactical Nuclear response for.

Very few folks want to uncork the nuclear genie.

 

[Val St]

You understand that North Korea has 7 million soldiers (including reservists)?

Sure looks like a lot.
So how many would you send, without fear to weaken up own army and workforce, if you're Kim jon something?

 

[lenaitch]

Can you imagine for moment yourself as NK's troop in Ukraine?
You been forcefully send thousands mile away to fight and could be killed for foreign unknown to you country and their elite. On top of that you wont see any paycheck cause that money will been send to your government.
How much motivation you'll have?

You might be fed better than back home (which, admittedly, isn't saying much).

 

[quadrapiper]

Seems they are consolidating their AFV reserves

Now that seems like a good target.

 

[Maxman1]

You understand that North Korea has 7 million soldiers (including reservists)?

But do they have a proper reserve system or is it just a list of former soldiers who did their mandatory service years ago?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Not support direct from the UAE government, but new equipment is showing up in Russia from Streit Group from the UAE. Wouldn't be the first time that a government turned a blind eye to the questionable sales of a national champion corporation...

Russia gets armored vehicles from UAE manufacturer

Recent video footage circulating on Russian social media appears to confirm a new shipment of Streit Group-manufactured armored vehicles delivered to Russian forces. One prominent Russian military blogger, going by the name Voennyi Osvedomitel, said: "Presumably, a batch of various armored...

defence-blog.com

The UAE and Turkey, with friends like them who needs enemies ?

 

[Rudburg]

There tactical nuclear doctrine is actually quite clear.

How they would use them operationally is well understood; what isn't clear are the strategic/political circumstances that would result in them being used. Lots of people have opinions, but the Russians don't have a declared policy for tactical nuclear weapons use like they do for their strategic weapons. To use a phrase coined by one American researcher, it's a "threat that leaves something to chance."

I believe it’s been made very clear that using a nuclear weapon, even a relatively low yield one in this conflict will result in a dramatic shift in NATO’s (and China’s) current positions of support.

I agree, but it's up to the Russians to decide if they believe that our threats are credible.