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The War in Ukraine

But nothing that Russia would want to invade to grab at some future point. Plus, any change in NK's status seems like it would be more damaging to the West than anyone else: even reunification tomorrow would mean the ROK having to assume a decades-long whole-society rebuilding project.
NK is a global pariah, already so they have no qualms providing Putin meat sacks and mentions to get some the short fan boy wants -- a nuclear warhead and ICMBS to make him feel powerful. It is a win-win for Putin as he just feeds the war machine and further enrages the West by dealing with NK. Nk would need a major issue to have a regime change - more than the loss of a million or two soldiers fighting for Russia.
They do that, but it doesn't seem like much in the way of shared interests beyond that?
Iran for years called the USSR Lesser Satan, but has still relied on Russian material to help destabilize the West -- there where simply a Proxy of convenience, and Iran doing shit helps distract from Russia in the Ukraine and vice versus - it is a mutually beneficial relationship to both.
And Iran is Ukraine but Muslim, and a regime change away from being another Turkey.
Iran's issue is under the Shah it wasn't exactly the bastion of democracy - and Erdogan is busy trying to push Turkey into an authoritarian state. They don't have any sort of history with democracy - and in that area of the world there are not any good role models either.
Best case is that Iran gets embroiled in a cvil war - that at least takes them out of the regional power broker spot for a while -
 
I'd suggest that Putin's Russia has been very clever with their mobilization methods -- they are keeping "White Russians" safe in Moscow and St Petersburg and most of the Western areas, while utterly decimating the minorities in meat units.
So for the most part they keep those areas safe, and loyal, as well the National Guard (Rosgvardia) are made up of such loyal members of society (and there are 380k of those).
I really hate hearing Rosgvardia being conflated with the National Guard. US readers have an understanding of their National Guard that is universes away from what Rosgvardia is and does. Such easy linking of the two names sets a mental framework and expectations that are at odds with reality. And remember that OMON is a subset of Rosgvardia.

It's public face may be similar but its actual employment is different. It is a militia/unsecret police force loyal to and reporting to/controlled by the president. Think Praetorian guard (and one not subordinate to the FSB - that whole dictator keeping his support systems and enemies divided thing). With OMON as its "spear tip". A particularly nasty and poison dipped one at that.

Remember always that Wikipedia is crowd sourced and in the current age of disinformation and bot farms, easily manipulated to present (mostly to the west with easy internet access) a certain image.

Of course I could be slandering them and am open to corrective education, but .....
 
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I really hate hearing Rosgvardia being conflated with the National Guard. US readers have an understanding of their National Guard that is universes away from what Rosgvardia is and does. Such easy linking of the two names sets a mental framework and expectations that are at odds with reality. And remember that OMON is a subset of Rosgvardia.

It's public face may be similar but its actual employment is different. It is a militia/unsecret police force loyal to and reporting to/controlled by the president. Think Praetorian guard (and one not subordinate to the FSB - that whole dictator keeping his support systems and enemies divided thing). With OMON as its "spear tip". A particularly nasty and poison dipped one at that.

Remember always that Wikipedia is crowd sourced and in the current age of disinformation and bot farms, easily manipulated to present (mostly to the west with easy internet access) a certain image.

Of course I could be slandering them and am open to corrective education, but .....
Brownshirts but with heavier kit seems like the closest parallel? They're not quite at the level of the SS or IRGC in capability.
 
National Guard in former Soviet states is generally better translated as gendarmerie.
 
Interesting find, I am betting this was a crafty russian tech who made this work from two damaged tanks into a working tank, but it adds a new dimension to battlefield recovery and repair if we can fix and match T80 chassis and T90 turrets. I've also seen this done with the T90 and T72 last week.

 
This is a good one. Note that TOW even as old as it is, is still effective




Not past its best before date yet it seems.
 
This is a good one. Note that TOW even as old as it is, is still effective

Most of the TOW 2 we sent over there are fairly new versions with a near 5k range.

So if sighted well with a good clear field of fire - you can get some fantastic hits before they know it and before they can use any direct fire methods against it.
 
NK troops won't do any significant change and this is why:
1. They not even mercenaries who is driven by money
2. Absolute absence of any real warfare experience
3. Military preparation based on similar one to soviet/china practices in which human life worth nothing but execution of order w/out second thought or argumants
4. Foreign psycological, mental and environments' surrounding
5. Russians are extreme xenophobs toward dark/yellow races and latest com intercepts already proved this. Thus army brotherhood, which is a must condition in real warfare, won't be established
Anyway, for putin it's rather desperate attempt to demonstrate ability of Russia to have real open military ally (sort of like NATO alliance)
 
NK troops won't do any significant change and this is why:
1. They not even mercenaries who is driven by money
2. Absolute absence of any real warfare experience
3. Military preparation based on similar one to soviet/china practices in which human life worth nothing but execution of order w/out second thought or argumants
4. Foreign psycological, mental and environments' surrounding
5. Russians are extreme xenophobs toward dark/yellow races and latest com intercepts already proved this. Thus army brotherhood, which is a must condition in real warfare, won't be established
Anyway, for putin it's rather desperate attempt to demonstrate ability of Russia to have real open military ally (sort of like NATO alliance)
You understand that North Korea has 7 million soldiers (including reservists)?
 
NK troops won't do any significant change and this is why:
1. They not even mercenaries who is driven by money
2. Absolute absence of any real warfare experience
3. Military preparation based on similar one to soviet/china practices in which human life worth nothing but execution of order w/out second thought or argumants
4. Foreign psycological, mental and environments' surrounding
5. Russians are extreme xenophobs toward dark/yellow races and latest com intercepts already proved this. Thus army brotherhood, which is a must condition in real warfare, won't be established
Anyway, for putin it's rather desperate attempt to demonstrate ability of Russia to have real open military ally (sort of like NATO alliance)
The DPRK has very deep manpower reserves of 7 million , thousands of tanks, afvs etc. A second group is preparing to go to Russia according to south korean intelligence. If of similar size to the first group that's upto 24000 troops by the end of the year. That's a significant amount that if committed to one theatre can change things. Green or not these are fresh troops, with high morale, and well motivated. Russia continues to add to its manpower without resorting to mass mobilization. Something Ukraine is trying to avoid as well.

South korean intelligence has suggested Russia is giving the DPRK missile tech, and nuclear weapons tech as compensation. Which has lead to one of the recommendations by south korean intelligence to launch strikes against DPRK forces before they deploy to Ukraine.

If south korea goes kinetic to prevent aid to Russia this will be a whole new ball game with one of the most technologically advanced western military industrial bases going full swing behind Ukraine.
 
Just my thoughts and I will put a disclaimer on my thoughts, education RCR Battle School CLC, Fin Clerk, and out since 1995, but I think out of the box.

Russian and North Korea make a deal for equipment, food, cash, whatever for arms and soldiers.

From what I have read, North Korean equipment is not as good as the catalogue stated or is so old it the powder, propellant is past it best before date. Equipment is dated. Not up to modern standards, or assumed to be in poor condition, requiring maintenace and upgrades.
( but have vast supplies of everything so even if 1 in 4 works as desired when they have 1000s of them that is a lot of military stores that could be in Russian hands if traded for some how. Since both countries are isolated, trading with the devil comes to mind if there is no else, who cares who the devil is )
But troops can be trained, up trained or used as is for various roles as needed. Guards, cannon fodder, labour for building positions, mining ( I am sure the NK has great knowledge of mine laying DMZ is full of mines) .


But now comes the out of box thinking.

NK supplies, troops etc. Will give NK some knowledge of modern warfare, which will be useful if they decide to invade the SK.
If that does not happen, it will make SK consider policy changes, ie supplies weapons to active combat zones, increase production of the SK war stocks. Take 2000 NK troops and have them do the mining and build up of defence fortications that adds 2000 Russian troops to the direct fight. Or it puts 2000 NK troops to direct fight if they are put in to the line. No matter what it is an increase of troops.

Now the US has to watch the NK more, meaning removing man power and equipment to monitor the border for any build up to draw away American assets from helping Ukraine. Even if NK did build up troops and did nothing it draws away the focus.

With the focus in the Ukraine, the Middle East and now maybe in the Koreas, it really will draw the attention away from anyone sector and that lack attention is an advantage to the other side.

Remove AWACs from Europe, to monitor the Middle East, move carriers from one ocean to the other, have to use air force craft to move equipment to a second front, slows down the flow of arms and equipment to the other front. ( slow down is a win for the other side )

Getting Iran to supply the Russians with arms, the Iranians get to provoke the West without actually doing anything directly.
Iran might have its hands full right now with everything going on in the Middle East but they will use it as an excuse to poke the US and the West.

All these moves are intended to draw the attention of the West away from the Ukraine to give the Russian forces an advantage in their special operation.

So what is next?
 
Have been out to spot any errors or omissions, but it feels spot on. Unfortunately. Somebody once said something similar to "you elect the leaders you deserve". We seem particularly bad at doing even that.

 
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