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The War in Ukraine

KevinB said:
2004 if not sooner.
Click to expand...
Ever since March 24 1999 when NATO started bombing Yugoslavia without security council approval (such a badly designed system!) thus ending the believability of the NATO stance that they are a purely defensive alliance. That placed in the future wannabe tsarina the belief that NATO was an active enemy military with designs on the motherland. Once his satellite/puppet buffer states were no longer there, and worse had joined the enemy, that cemented that opinion. With the 1000 plus year history of invading armies from all directions and now having few easily dependable physical barriers or sacrificial buffer states, that fear while misplaced in our worldview was logical in his worldview. (we really need to stop assuming everybody shares our beliefs and perceptions of motivations and objective reality). Multiple warning signals were sent over the years culminating in the 2008 speech to NATO in Bucharest.

Subsequently he used NATO's rules against them for the first time in Georgia thus essentially permanently stopping any chance of joining NATO. Ukraine then was a compliant satellite with Russian leanings so only soft power and hybrid operations were started to ensure its allegiance. With each additional invasion - Chechnya twice, Ukraine twice and arguably Moldova - the belief that NATO was a fundamentally flawed organisation with little appetite for kinetic action or tolerance of casualties/costs and an inability to think let alone plan for the strategic long term was reinforced. In his world, all NATO wanted was financial coercive control, resource extraction and profits.

So logically he used the current wests belief in unfettered free speech and naivete with great power machinations to establish and imbed agents and influence idiots throughout the west to keep their political elites and populations misinformed or confused and divided amongst themselves. The lack of critical thinking skills amongst most populations, decreasing international 'literacy' particularly in the US and the rise of social media made Russian info operations his most cost effective weapon. And they excell at them.
 
Skysix said:
Ever since March 24 1999 when NATO started bombing Yugoslavia without security council approval (such a badly designed system!) thus ending the believability of the NATO stance that they are a purely defensive alliance. That placed in the future wannabe tsarina the belief that NATO was an active enemy military with designs on the motherland.
Once his satellite/puppet buffer states were no longer there, and worse had joined the enemy, that cemented that opinion. With the 1000 plus year history of invading armies from all directions and now having few easily dependable physical barriers or sacrificial buffer states, that fear while misplaced in our worldview was logical in his worldview. (we really need to stop assuming everybody shares our beliefs and perceptions of motivations and objective reality). Multiple warning signals were sent over the years culminating in the 2008 speech to NATO in Bucharest.

Subsequently he used NATO's rules against them for the first time in Georgia thus essentially permanently stopping any chance of joining NATO. Ukraine then was a compliant satellite with Russian leanings so only soft power and hybrid operations were started to ensure its allegiance. With each additional invasion - Chechnya twice, Ukraine twice and arguably Moldova - the belief that NATO was a fundamentally flawed organisation with little appetite for kinetic action or tolerance of casualties/costs and an inability to think let alone plan for the strategic long term was reinforced. In his world, all NATO wanted was financial coercive control, resource extraction and profits.

So logically he used the current wests belief in unfettered free speech and naivete with great power machinations to establish and imbed agents and influence idiots throughout the west to keep their political elites and populations misinformed or confused and divided amongst themselves. The lack of critical thinking skills amongst most populations, decreasing international 'literacy' particularly in the US and the rise of social media made Russian info operations his most cost effective weapon. And they excell at them.
Click to expand...
The only aspect I’d have added to that was that NATO acted in the FYR with UNGA approval and Resolutions.
The Security Council may not have authorized force, but there was a majority of the UN General Assembly that supported the action.
 
CBH99 said:
Why do you say 2004? (It's 5am and I'm bagged tired...my brain is probably missing the obvious)
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2004 was a pivotal year in Russia. It was the start of Putin’s Second Term, and while he had been working on consolidating power even in his first, the where some fairly instrumental issues that allowed him to make major changes by the end of that year:

1) Ukraine has their ‘Orange Revolution’. Which showed that a pro-Russian ally could be replaced by a democratic Western leaning government through power of the people.

2) Multiple Terror attacks inside Russia.
Of which the best know are the Belsan School Massacre, and Moscow Theater, but there where many many others.


While Putin was already working towards putting the USSR 2.0 back together, 2004 was the year it should have been painfully obvious that he was rolling back the clock, and would do it with blood when he felt like it.


www.rferl.org

2004 And Beyond: In Russia, Tragedy Furthers Kremlin Vision Of Centralized State

Putin said the political reforms would help ensure the country's security The year 2004 will long be associated with two major events in Russia -- the Beslan hostage tragedy and the launch of sweeping reforms aimed at consolidating power in the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin...
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
 
If we were paying attention, I would say 1999. That was when the FSB bombed apartment buildings in Russia, which Putin blamed on Chechens, which they used as a pretext to retake Chechnya and flatten Grozny. This propelled him into the Presidency, starting his rise as a Tsar in all but name.

I admit at the time I bought the Russian stories about Islamic terrorism, etc. It wasn’t for a few years later when journalists, activists and former FSB agents started getting whacked did I readjust my outlook.
 
RangerRay said:
If we were paying attention, I would say 1999. That was when the FSB bombed apartment buildings in Russia, which Putin blamed on Chechens, which they used as a pretext to retake Chechnya and flatten Grozny. This propelled him into the Presidency, starting his rise as a Tsar in all but name.

I admit at the time I bought the Russian stories about Islamic terrorism, etc. It wasn’t for a few years later when journalists, activists and former FSB agents started getting whacked did I readjust my outlook.
Click to expand...
Oh there definitely was some Chechen terrorism going on on top of Putin’s little campaigns — but most of the pre 2004 actions were limited to internal Russian ‘changes’. I do believe 2004 is when he decided that in order to really restore Russia he needed to conquer the West as well.
 
Are the Ukrainians repeating the mistakes of Bakhmut and being unwilling to give up territory for political reasons to the point that they are again taking increasingly unfavourable loss rates in the Donbas? According to this BBC article things are starting to look dicey in the Pokrovsk sector:

www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Troops fear encirclement in Pokrovsk as Russians near

Speaking to the BBC, soldiers in eastern Ukraine fear that Russia is trying to surround them.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
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