I'm sure it's the same 'logic' that says 15 CSC will be able to replace 4 destroyers and 12 frigates. Or the same logic that thinks 2 AOR's across 2 oceans is enough for 15 CSC, 6 AOPS, 4 Vic's and a dozen Kingstons?
I have zero reason to believe that the F35's will not be asked to fly the same number of years as the CF18's have been. As its been pointed out we bought 138 of them - 98 single seaters and another 40 for training. In addition we went out and bought another 18 from Australia for a grand total of 156 planes. Of that number we have approximately 76 serviceable - less than 50%. If we follow that trend 45yrs out from now we'll have around 40 F35's serviceable - is 40 enough for us to meet NORAD and NATO commitments? Of the 40, how many are airworthy at any one time - half? 2/3? 1/3?
Churchill asked Air Vice Marshall Park at the peak of the Battle of Britain - 'What other reserves have we?' Park replied - 'There are none.'
As for the 6 pack deployments - 30yrs ago we deployed 26 to Kuwait and then 18 Kosovo 10yrs later. Now we are down to deploying 6 planes - notice the trend? Does 6 planes allow us to sit with the adults or will the kiddies? Does 6 planes do much towards keeping us in the G7? In 5 Eyes, which is quickly morphing into 3 Eyes because us the Kiwi's are not pulling our weight?