The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Journeyman]

Trust me, the CoC knows very well.

Which begs the question, is there any link between "knowing" and effectively "acting"?

Most of the issues cited aren't new dissatisfiers, and neither hand-wringing nor (surprisingly) making badge and uniform changes has seemed to address personnel shortages.  There should always be a paragraph titled "So What?" -- is the knowledgeable CoC making any substantive changes?

Edit:  posted while question was being answered, but I'll leave it because the CoC needs to be questioned periodically on this topic, it seems


[Maybe this series of posts would be more suitable in the "RCAF aircrew shortage" thread...]

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I think the key message is that we cannot train ourselves out of it: we need to retain experience first.  We are becoming critically short of experience (ie: pilots qualified to teach wingmen how to become leads) to the point that almost only Majors and LCols are qualified to do so.

We’ve been told for years now that steps are being taken to address retention yet we haven’t seen anythting concrete, other than the “sticks” (restricted release after doing a refresher for example) but definately no “carrots”.  People are getting tired of empty promises and COs can’t answer questions like “Why should I stay?” anymore with any credibility.

Max,

The Maritime Helicopter Community identifies with what the fighter force is going through, right now.

The decade following Chretien's decision to cancel the EH-101 program in 1993 cost us some of our best people, who quit in disgust. There are still echoes of that exodus (for example, we have almost nobody at flag officer rank with MH experience, today) and it is making the tramsition to Cyclone extremely difficult because we are jumping two full generations of aircraft technology in one shot.

3 and 4 Wing are entering a dark period. It will be interesting to see if we can even meet our basic treaty/sovereignty obligations by the end 2019, or if the whole capability just collapses.

Good luck.

 

[SupersonicMax]

Which begs the question, is there any link between "knowing" and effectively "acting"?

Most of the issues cited aren't new dissatisfiers, and neither hand-wringing nor (surprisingly) making badge and uniform changes has seemed to address personnel shortages.  There should always be a paragraph titled "So What?" -- is the knowledgeable CoC making any substantive changes?


[Maybe this series of posts would be more suitable in the "RCAF aircrew shortage" thread...]

The “so what” has been articulated and quantified, and supported by leadership.  Not sure at what level it went up to but I can tell you with certainty that the Strat level is aware.

 

[Journeyman]

The “so what” has been articulated and quantified, and supported by leadership.  Not sure at what level it went up to but I can tell you with certainty that the Strat level is aware.

So, "knowing" is well established;  responses under "effective action"...not so much.  Thank you.  [Not intended as a pissing contest with you!  Just trying to get a more complete picture]

As an outsider, it seems  as though the military and civilian leadership in all of this are concurring that "yep, this is a problem... someone should do something.... someday."  I have to say then, I really can't blame those who are bailing. 

 

[dimsum]

As an outsider, it seems  as though the military and civilian leadership in all of this are concurring that "yep, this is a problem... someone should do something.... someday."  I have to say then, I really can't blame those who are bailing.

We're a victim of our own success, really. 

Unlike Australia, no one has tried to attack Canada directly aside from a few stray shots in the west coast and one in the St. Lawrence, and we're too close to the US for the threat of "when will the Americans come?" to really play a factor in politics.  Although, with the changing generation, I wouldn't be surprised if Australians forget that sooner rather than later.

 

[HB_Pencil]

Real answer is Leslie didn't tick enough boxes.

The current MND is from a community, religion and province that will/may/need to deliver votes to the Liberals.  Leslie is not.

No, or at least that's a secondary issue at best. Leslie is/was a loose cannon. He's said things that has made others question his absolute loyalty to the party, while his last years in DND also raise questions about his competence and relationship with other uniformed individuals. I'm not sure where that stands today, but he was not their first choice for his own actions.

Sajjan on the other hand is utterly pliable, especially as a 1st year MP; he's highly constrained by his minders that have been parachuted in from the PMO. He's also a useful fall guy for a lot of these issues, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him be shuffled out in the next ten months.

The “so what” has been articulated and quantified, and supported by leadership.  Not sure at what level it went up to but I can tell you with certainty that the Strat level is aware.

The Former Comd RCAF knew and refused to see the problem, but he was in a highly difficult position: he was waging a backroom guerrilla war with the political leadership at the same time. I suspect that he didn't want to be fighting multiple fronts at one time and chose to ignore the massive warning signs. The leadership has been effectively cut off at the knees and everybody knows it internally. Norman's case is the most visible sign of that, but there's other examples abound. The current comd was very aware and actively worked on the issue upon entering into office, which has gained further impetus with the OAG. They've been looking at some of the USAF's reforms over the past few years for ideas that Canada can implement. However  as you and a number of other people have pointed out, without a fix on the fighter file and some drastic overhauls on QoL side (including pay), its not going to do much. Also he's up against other real constraints: the government refusing to pay for anything. SSE is an utter joke: they only just approved the money for the RAAF Aircraft a few weeks ago (a year after it was agreed to), there's no plan or money for CF-18 upgrades, or getting any more pilots.

I also feel that the general populace lack of care adds to this general dissatisfaction. There's been a fair bit of reporting on this for years, yet its only now getting a modicum of attention, which will soon be forgotten in the Christmas crush. Probably the only realistic impetus for change can only come when the US comes and says enough is enough and imposes some serious conditions on Canada for its declining fighter capability. Unfortunately they have their own problems to deal with as well.

 

[Quirky]

"They say several factors are at play in the exodus of pilots. These include exasperation over the delayed purchase of replacement jets that are now not expected for a decade or more, as well as a desire for better quality of life away from the two main fighter bases in Cold Lake, Alta., and Bagotville, Que."

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2018/11/24/fighter-jet-delays-fuelling-exodus-of-pilots-from-air-force-insiders-say.html

Some of this might also contribute to a lack of aircraft technicians.

This past APS, from my unit alone, out of the techs posted in 3/4 are remustering and the other promoted to a desk job. The AVN trade in Cold lake is bleeding, like a faucet. I remember when they tried to fill the cold lake positions with second line techs from 3 Wing. There was a stack of releases and postings were cancelled. Cold lake just needs to die and the RCAF as a whole will be better off.

 

[Good2Golf]

The Government (and by logical association, Canadian society) will get what it wants, and the age of delightenment immediate interest/gratification will bear some ugly crops in the times to come.  Even two F-35s per (remaining) pilot may not be a sufficient attractor.  At the risk of repeating myself from this (or another thread, can’t recall at this point...) we’re trying to attract young aspiring pilots to something akin to a Spitfire still flying in the early 80’s, just transposed three and a half decades forward in time.  Sad.  Notwithstanding the current Government’s finagling to punt the ball past the next election’s gates, Harper needs a firm smack upside the head for not having showed the fortitude to make a command decision and help the RCAF at least put on some reasonable semblance of contemporary capability.

:2c:

Regards
G2G

 

[dapaterson]

The RCAF owns pilot training.  The RCAF has refused to fix pilot training for a generation.  Even common sense approaches like dividing the occupation into rotary and fixed wing occupations, and streamlining that training, have been refused by RCAF leadership.

(A cynic would suggest that the pilot community has a vested interest in maintaining a pilot shortage, to justify increased pay for pilots).

There is no recruiting problem for pilots; last time I looked, there were sufficient pilots on the BTL/SUTL that we could stop recruiting pilots for five or six years and still have untrained pilots left in the system.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The RCAF owns pilot training.  The RCAF has refused to fix pilot training for a generation.  Even common sense approaches like dividing the occupation into rotary and fixed wing occupations, and streamlining that training, have been refused by RCAF leadership.

(A cynic would suggest that the pilot community has a vested interest in maintaining a pilot shortage, to justify increased pay for pilots).

There is no recruiting problem for pilots; last time I looked, there were sufficient pilots on the BTL/SUTL that we could stop recruiting pilots for five or six years and still have untrained pilots left in the system.

I know that this is your favourite hobby horse and I am no fan of NTFC either, but none of what you just said fixes throughput at 410 Sqn or retention on the 4 gun squadrons. Anecdotally, I am hearing that fighters are near the bottom of everyones choicea, as each class graduates Moose Jaw. Nobody wants to fly obsolete kit and live in Bagotville and or Cold Lake while doing so.

There in no magic wand to make fighter pilots that won't get them killed in their first fight. Best case, it is a 6-9 year process.

Buy a new fighter. Maybe looking at basing options at the same time, since all of the infrastructure has to be re-capitalized, regardless of what is purchased. That is about all that is left on the table.

The cynic in me says that there are those in government that actually cheer on the collapse of the fighter force.  More money for social programs, right?

 

[HB_Pencil]

The RCAF owns pilot training.  The RCAF has refused to fix pilot training for a generation.  Even common sense approaches like dividing the occupation into rotary and fixed wing occupations, and streamlining that training, have been refused by RCAF leadership.

(A cynic would suggest that the pilot community has a vested interest in maintaining a pilot shortage, to justify increased pay for pilots).

There is no recruiting problem for pilots; last time I looked, there were sufficient pilots on the BTL/SUTL that we could stop recruiting pilots for five or six years and still have untrained pilots left in the system.

I'd not lay the blame completely on the RCAF here on the choice of system: they've been under financial pressures to find efficiencies for the past 20 years, constrained by a political desire to keep the current contractual arrangements. The extension of the contract last year to 2024, despite its obvious limitations of the system is evidence of that.

The problem in this case (Tac fighters) is that it is not on the recruitment side, although the constraints of the pipeline in the past did contribute to this problem. No system can handle the shock of losing 15% of its population in one year, and averaging over 10% for three, thats unprecedented and what the OAG report and others are talking about.  Sure you'd love the system to be more flexible, but its not a cause here; the issue is with the experienced individuals leaving. Meizinger spoke last week how they can't absorb new pilots because of the releases and they will have to slow down the pipeline. Furthermore there's anecdotal evidence that new pilots are starting to avoid tac fighters and go to other aircraft because of all of this.

Edit: what SeaKingTacco said, but much more eloquently than I.

 

[Good2Golf]

...after some say the Government of the day in the mid-90’s directed the RCAF to transition its training to alternative service delivery provided primarily by........and what could go wrong with this idea.......Bombardier.  Pretty much all else that followed was a lesson in “what happens when you give up primary control over processes critical to your organization’s efficient and effective operation?”

*sigh*

:not-again:

 

[dimsum]

The cynic in me says that there are those in government that actually cheer on the collapse of the fighter force.  More money for social programs, right?

The cynic in me thinks we should go full Kiwi and collapse the fighter force, just to see the politicians' mouths drop and the scrambling afterwards. 

COA 1:  They actually follow through, we close Cold Lake and Bagotville, let the US run NORAD air defence
COA 2:  They get scared, miraculously find new money and listen to the issues, we get new stuff and/or new bases
COA 3:  They get scared, miraculously find new money, don't listen to the issues, all fighter pilots leave, rolling into COA 1.

:stirpot:

*ETA:  Tankers get re-rolled back to SAR or Transport. 

 

[Quirky]

COA 1:  They actually follow through, we close Cold Lake and Bagotville, let the US run NORAD air defence
COA 2:  They get scared, miraculously find new money and listen to the issues, we get new stuff and/or new bases
COA 3:  They get scared, miraculously find new money, don't listen to the issues, all fighter pilots leave, rolling into COA 1.

The US already has a quicker response time to our own West and North coasts. At least 3 Wing is strategically placed, Cold lake is good for the range and nothing more.

 

[dapaterson]

The RCAF owns pilot training and employment.  If pilots are upset about both, the RCAF needs to do some deep soul searching.  (Finally putting in a decent Comd RCAF for the first time in years is a very positive first step).  A long hard gaze in the mirror by the RCAF is long overdue.  And perhaps then some deliberate efforts to fix the elements under their own control. 

Or continue with past practice where past Comds RCAF complained about people spending too much time flying and deliberately worked to move pilots who wanted to fly away from flying positions, then wonder why things went wrong...


Do not read into the contact extension any external problems the RCAF could not solve, but rather senior RCAF leadership not planning ahead to address the looming end of the contract.  Not political influence, but RCAF indifference and a "Oh shit!  Is that running out?" panic reaction.

 

[dapaterson]

Re: Fighter Force.  My back of the envelope solution is to consolidate everyone in Mirabel, and deploy a six pack (or whatever size group is needed) to Cold Lake and Bagotville for 2-3 months at a time on a rotational basis.  Voila.  A single base, located in the area of a major metropolitan area with services available in both official languages.

 

[Sub_Guy]

The cynic in me thinks we should go full Kiwi and collapse the fighter force, just to see the politicians' mouths drop and the scrambling afterwards. 

COA 1:  They actually follow through, we close Cold Lake and Bagotville, let the US run NORAD air defence
COA 2:  They get scared, miraculously find new money and listen to the issues, we get new stuff and/or new bases
COA 3:  They get scared, miraculously find new money, don't listen to the issues, all fighter pilots leave, rolling into COA 1.

:stirpot:

*ETA:  Tankers get re-rolled back to SAR or Transport.

I think the best COA would be to collapse the Army, and use the funds for new aircraft and submarines. 

 

[BurmaShave]

We're sending fewer people jets right now, cause 410 needs YFR to train instructors. The problem there is not with NFTC. We're also only sending IPs and ENJJPT grads on the fighter course, trying to keep the quality as high as possible (so, Ph III grads either go to ENJJPT or instruct for a tour, not direct 410). Despite this, we still have more people who want jets than are getting it (based on my anecdotal evidence of literally being here). Antique aircraft, 3 year instructor tour, Cold Lake...people still want that. It's keeping them once they get there that's the problem.

 

[FSTO]

I think the best COA would be to collapse the Army, and use the funds for new aircraft and submarines.

Wasn’t the savings from a non F35 purchase to go to the RCN?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Re: Fighter Force.  My back of the envelope solution is to consolidate everyone in Mirabel, and deploy a six pack (or whatever size group is needed) to Cold Lake and Bagotville for 2-3 months at a time on a rotational basis.  Voila.  A single base, located in the area of a major metropolitan area with services available in both official languages.

There is merit in this idea of locating all four gun sqns on a single base like Mirabel. Although, given the hue and cry over a simple frickin pipeline through Montreal, I can just imagine the environmental objections over this idea. Still, it would make the QoL issues much more manageable.

Not sure that fixes the obsolete fighters, issue....