The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[vonGarvin]

I stand by my prediction of a Conservative Majority.  I may be smoking reefer, but there it is. 

 

[Mike Baker]

I stand by my prediction of a Conservative Majority.  I may be smoking reefer, but there it is.  

God I sure hope your right!


Beav

 

[GAP]

I also think it is time to stop treating Quebec with kid gloves if the Bloc gets most (define most??) of the seats. If Quebec doesn't want to be at the table, then so be it. Arts anyone?

I agree 100%

Charest (among all the others) and the Bloc have been extorting the Federal government for far too long. They keep using the threat of separation if they don't get it.....well, so be it, but I am sick and tired of the rest of Canada's representatives sucking up to Quebec on a maybe....

 

[vonGarvin]

God I sure hope your right!


Beav

You hope that I'm right about what: the conservatives or the fact that I'm smoking reefer? ;D

 

[The Bread Guy]

I think it will be the day of the "Undecideds".....

with 25+ % of the voters undecided, they will make the ultimate decision....

I agree, and I'm stickin' by my 140 seat prediction for Stephen and Co. (minority, but bigger than last time).

 

[Teflon]

You hope that I'm right about what: the conservatives or the fact that I'm smoking reefer? ;D

I think your smoking reefer and it's got nothing to do with your prediction, I'm just a naturally suspicious person!  >

 

[Mike Baker]

You hope that I'm right about what: the conservatives or the fact that I'm smoking reefer? ;D

Little bit of both really


Beav

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
I also think it is time to stop treating Quebec with kid gloves if the Bloc gets most (define most??) of the seats. If Quebec doesn't want to be at the table, then so be it. Arts anyone?

I think that if, as the pundits predict, we end up with a (slightly larger) Conservative minority, Stephen Harper’s first instinct – one of the ones that make him so unlikeable – will be to punish both NF and QC.

But, Harper is, above all, rational and, after stamping his feet and cursing, in private, he will reflect upon his AIM, which is a new political Canada that looks something like this:

Province  BQ/Cons/Green/LibsNDP/Inds



Terrs: 0/ 1/0/  1/  1/0 (3)
BC:    0/20/2/  4/  9/1 (36)
AB:    0/26/1/  0/  1/0 (28)
SK:    0/11/0/  0/  3/0 (14)
MB:    0/11/0/  0/  3/0 (14)
ON:    0/65/1/19/20/0 (106)
QC:  35/21/1/13/  4/1 (75)
NB:    0/  3/0/ 4/  3/0 (10)
NS:    0/  4/0/ 4/  3/0 (11)
PEI:  0/  2/0/  1/ 1/0 (4)
NF:    0/  2/0/  2/ 2/1 (7)

BQ = 35/Cons =  166/Greens = 5/Libs = 49/NDP = 50/Inds = 3


The only two national parties, in Harper's 'perfect world' are the Conservatives and the NDP. The Bloc, Greens and Liberals are all regional parties.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Mods: Could  you put up a new poll - in the early evening of 14 Oct 08 - saying:

--------------------
"I voted:
BQ __ (1 person or 0.5% intended to vote BQ)
Conservative __ (157 people or 82.6% intended to vote Conservative)
Green __ (6 people or 3.2% intended to vote Green)
Liberal __ (11 people or 5.8% intended to vote Liberal)
NDP __ (9 people or 4.7% intended to vote NDP)
Other Party of Independent__ (3 people or 1.6% intended to vote Other/Independent)
or
I spoiled my ballot __ (3 people or 1.6% intended to spoil their ballots)
or
I did not vote __ (0 people or )% intended not to vote)"
--------------------

Of course someone (a Mod) would have to correct the 'intended' figures on Tuesday afternoon.

Mods: I have updated the figures:


--------------------

"I voted:
BQ __ (1 person or 0.5% intended to vote BQ)
Conservative __ (164 people or 81.6% intended to vote Conservative)
Green __ (6 people or 3.0% intended to vote Green)
Liberal __ (11 people or 5.5% intended to vote Liberal)
NDP __ (11 people or 5.5% intended to vote NDP)
Other Party or Independent__ (5 people or 2.5% intended to vote Other/Independent)
or
I spoiled my ballot __ (3 people or 1.5% intended to spoil their ballots)
or
I did not vote __ (0 people or 0% intended not to vote)"
--------------------

 

[Old Sweat]

Well, the usual adminstrative nausea of election day in our campaign office. A gentleman dropped in to find where he is supposed to vote as he had not received a voter's card. He went to the usual place, and it was no longer a polling station. So off to the local CPC office trundled he. Anyway, we searched the voter's list for what should have been his poll, but his street did not appear. So, on the phone to the riding Elections Canada office. The worker there was not pleased to find that when she entered the street it popped up with no one shown as living on it. However she was able to tell him where his poll was, and off he went.

(I didn't mention that I called the main campaign office which was less than helpful. One fool even suggested it was not our place to help voters. It was refreshing to find that despite having been retired for nearly 14 years, I haven't lost my ability to chew butt.)

The gentleman in question had only lived at that address for two years. Another one of the workers in our office (ex-RCMP) who knew him kidded him about being in the Witness Protection Progam and therefore not existing. This is just the latest hassle with the permanent voters list, which as usual manages to be rife with errors, omissions and the like. Why the heck doesn't Elections Canada confirm it on the ground never ceases to amaze me.

A woman dropped in to report that one of the polling places which housed seven or eight individual polls did not have a sign indentifying it as such. (The voter's cards merely identified it by its name on the local university campus.) People were driving aimlessly about and some were heading home without voting. So, on the phone to Elections Canada again. The lady there may think I am hitting on her by the end of the day.

The main campaign office sent us an email to remind us of the gathering to watch the returns tonight in Brockville with large screen TVs, free food and drink, etc. The ex-Mountie phoned them to ask if they were going to send one of the TVs up to Kemptville, as we planned to keep this office open until the polls close and the votes are counted in our area. He added we would be luxuriating with a portable radio and a bag of chips. Unbeknownst to them and the official agent, we have already arranged for our own food and drink courtesy of the petty cash float.

On the other hand, our candidate with his entourage and accompanied by the local MPP dropped in as part of his election day drive around the riding to thank us for our efforts. I am off for a few hours and go back on duty at 1500. I should be home around 2300.

 

[ModlrMike]

Good luck, and good work, Old Sweat.

This is where I think the Torries may have an edge. Their riding organizations are much more rooted in the community and tend to work to bring out the vote.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think that if, as the pundits predict, we end up with a (slightly larger) Conservative minority, Stephen Harper’s first instinct – one of the ones that make him so unlikeable – will be to punish both NF and QC.

But, Harper is, above all, rational and, after stamping his feet and cursing, in private, he will reflect upon his AIM, which is a new political Canada ...

And speaking of Newfoundland and Labrador, here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from The Telegram in St. John’s, is an interesting story about just how vindictive Danny Williams’ ABC campaign has become:

http://www.thetelegram.com/index.cfm?pid=1154&cpcat=election&stry=91407039

Tory candidate told not to meet with N.L. gov't because of federal feud

THE CANADIAN PRESS

ST. JOHN'S, N.L. - The president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Agriculture says he's disturbed that the organization advised him not to meet with the provincial government because he's a Conservative candidate.

In a letter obtained by The Canadian Press, the organization's board of directors said it discussed whether it would be appropriate for Merv Wiseman, a Tory candidate in St. John's South-Mount Pearl, to attend a meeting Wednesday with provincial Natural Resources Minister Kathy Dunderdale.

"The board reached a consensus that in light of the fact that you are a Conservative candidate in the upcoming election and the ongoing well-publicized dispute between the provincial government and the federal Conservative government, it would be in the best interest of the agriculture industry if you did not attend this meeting," wrote Rhonda Thornley, the federation's acting president, in a letter dated Oct. 9.

Thornley did not return a message seeking comment.

Wiseman confirmed Monday that he received the letter and said he was dismayed when he read it.

"The letter I suppose is somewhat symptomatic of what we've been seeing and hearing out there," Wiseman said in an interview, referring to the repercussions of Premier Danny Williams's Anything But Conservative campaign.

"Obviously it's a very dark aspect that we're seeing. ... It's an atmosphere that's pervasive and a little bit disturbing."

Wiseman, who took a leave of absence from the federation to run in the election, said he hasn't decided yet whether to abide by the organization's request.

The federal Conservatives have had trouble raising funds and drawing volunteers in the province during the election. The co-chairman of the Conservative campaign in Newfoundland recently blamed the premier's offensive for the party's struggles in the province.

Wiseman is running against Liberal candidate Siobhan Coady and NDP hopeful Ryan Cleary.

© The Canadian Press, 2008​

This goes a bit beyond politics, in my opinion, and looks a bit like intimidation. Williams may be immensely popular in NF, but he’s acting like a cheap thug.

 

[Rifleman62]

Harper will not be able to, and no other PM could, punish Quebec cause the Lieliberals and the NDP, let alone the Bloc, will suck up to get the Quebec vote. Without Quebec seats, very difficult to form a government, let alone a majority. And Quebec knows that, and utilizes that fact.
Even in war time, politicians dared not lose the Quebec vote. WW II was a good example. Liberal Mackenzie King and the conscription crises. In late 1944 Cdn Inf Bns were extremely short of trainedinfantry replacements. Canada was full of trained Zombies, who would not go "Active", and the government was not going to send conscrips overseas. Meantime Inf units were half strength, replacements were found from other Arms and Corp, given scant Inf trg , then thrown into the battle of the Sheldt. Look at some of the headstones. Why are there 40 year old Inf Ptes KIA in late 44 or 45?
Zombies were eventually sent overseas very late in the war. Very few saw action. Many deserted.
Newfoundland is a different matter. But if Nfd is punished, where would the CF gets it's recruits?

 

[Edward Campbell]

There are still more than four hours for Ontarians to give Stephen Harper his majority according to this article reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081014.wexlnontario1014/BNStory/politics/home

Ontario 'more crucial' to election outcome
Analysts says Harper's stumble in Quebec leaves Ontario as the main battleground province

COLIN PERKEL
The Canadian Press

October 14, 2008 at 1:23 PM EDT

TORONTO — Ontario voters, always critical to the outcome of any federal election, are taking on an even greater prominence Tuesday as Canadians pass judgment on Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government.

The reason, analysts say, is that Harper appears to have stumbled in Quebec where he had high hopes for a breakthrough, leaving Ontario, with its 106 ridings, as the main battleground province.

“Ontario is more crucial because the Conservatives are not going to make the gains they were hoping to make in Quebec,” said analyst David Docherty of Wilfrid Laurier University.

“They're going to have to pick up those seats in Ontario.”

It's been an uphill battle as Mr. Harper's campaign fought to navigate through a fierce economic storm that seemed to have come up as suddenly as a lethal gale on the Great Lakes.

Ontario, which has already bled tens of thousands of auto-sector and other manufacturing jobs over the past few years, has been especially dismayed by the market meltdown and the deepening economic crisis in the U.S., the province's largest trading partner.

“There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty and anxiety being felt in Ontario homes and to be experienced inside Ontario businesses today,” Premier Dalton McGuinty said this past week.

Mr. McGuinty has been in a running feud with the Harper government over “fairness” in federal transfers, a battle made more difficult as Ottawa feels the economic pinch. The Premier argues the feds are short-changing Ontario by about $11.8-billion a year — money that could be used to ease some of the province's economic pain.

Instead, his finance minister warned a few days ago, the province could find itself back in red ink.

“Stephen Harper called the election early to avoid campaigning in precisely the economic times he finds himself campaigning in,” Mr. Docherty said.

“Politics is timing, timing, timing. He did not get the timing right.”

Ontario voters, too, might remember Mr. Harper's finance minister, Jim Flaherty, warning just a few months ago the province was a terrible place to invest in.

The Tories' flip-flop on taxing income trusts — a broken election promise — is another issue that some provincial voters will keep in mind as they go to the polling booth.

Many voters, however, will decide where to mark their ballots based on local issues.

Nowhere does this seem more likely than in Haldimand-Norfolk in the heart of rural southern Ontario, where Immigration Minister Diane Finley is in tough against both a Liberal and Independent candidate.

Ms. Finley's local leadership has been pilloried by many voters in the east end of the riding, home to Caledonia, the site of an ongoing First Nations land-claims dispute that has at times turned violent.

On the other end of the riding, hard-hit tobacco farmers finally won a promise of a $300-million exit-strategy package just weeks before Mr. Harper called the election but only after months of his refusal to entertain the idea.

In recent weeks, Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day and Mr. Flaherty himself have tried to shore up Ms. Finley's campaign, signs of Conservative concern about their chances.

Further north, Health Minister Tony Clement has stayed close to his Parry Sound-Muskoka riding, which he won by an improbable 28-vote margin in the last election.

Even in a tourist playground known for its upscale cottages, jobs remains a critical concern for those who live there year round.

“The Prime Minister is saying things are pretty much OK,” said Henry Jacek, a political science professor at McMaster University. “(But) people are more worried than he might think.”

Still, analysts said, Conservative fortunes in the province are going to depend in large measure on how the opposition vote splits — especially since the three closest races in the province in the last vote were all ones in which Conservatives squeaked through.

If the New Democrats and Greens siphon off enough votes from the Liberals, the Tories could win some seats with as little as one-third of the popular vote, something they couldn't do in the last election.

“That's why these ridings (like Haldimand-Norfolk) come into play,” Mr. Docherty said.

Also crucial will be how many of Ontario's more than eight-million eligible voters make it to polling stations, which are now open and will be until 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

About two-thirds did so in the January 2006 vote. A lower turnout would tend to favour the incumbent Conservatives, analysts said.

Weather is not likely to be a factor for most Ontario residents eligible to vote.

However, there is a wind warning calling for strong gusts of up to 90 kilometres an hour in the Parry Sound, North Bay and Kirkland Lake regions.

Scattered power outages were reported across central and northern Ontario Tuesday afternoon.

A lot may depend on the 905 area code which gave Mike harris two majority governments back in the ‘90s and which Stephen Harper has courted with targeted programmes and policy proposals.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Harper will not be able to, and no other PM could, punish Quebec cause the Lieliberals and the NDP, let alone the Bloc, will suck up to get the Quebec vote. Without Quebec seats, very difficult to form a government, let alone a majority. And Quebec knows that, and utilizes that fact.
...

One can win without Québec with this:

-------------------
Terrs: 1 )
BC: 20  )
AB: 28  }  All fairly easily done by the Conservatives
SK: 12  )
MB: 12  )
ON: 70  --  A real challenge, but if you accept that the Liberals have a ‘lock’ on only 20 seats and the NDP on less than 10 then it’s possible
QC: 2  )
NB: 4  )
NS: 4  } All ‘doable’ by the Conservatives
PEI: 1  )
NF: 1  )
--------------------

The Québcec vote might split along these lines:

BQ: 54
Cons: 2
Greens: 0
Libs: 16
NDP: 2
Others: 1

 

[Rifleman62]

ERC, the exposure you have had says it all . I only state my 2 cents.

I previously said "Without Quebec seats, very difficult to form a government, let alone a majority"  you say "One can win without Québec with this". We both agree that  The "Greens' will fly first, before that happens.

 

[Zell_Dietrich]

I wonder how accurate this prediction will be.  http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php

wel tories at 125,  libs at 94 and ndp at 36 ... we might see a swift formal agreemnt on the left for PM Dion ...

I guess 4 hours from now we'll see.

 

[Blackadder1916]

.  .  . an interesting story about just how vindictive Danny Williams’ ABC campaign has become:

http://www.thetelegram.com/index.cfm?pid=1154&cpcat=election&stry=91407039

This goes a bit beyond politics, in my opinion, and looks a bit like intimidation. Williams may be immensely popular in NF, but he’s acting like a cheap thug.

It's been a few decades since I left the rock, but vindictiveness and an autocratic streak are almost in the DNA of Newfoundland first ministers (pre and post Confederation).  Danny Williams is a pussycat compared to Joey Smallwood, however Joey's vindictiveness was usually reserved for his home-grown opponents; much of his time with mainland (business and political) interests was spent sucking up.

 

[ModlrMike]

Just back from doing my civic duty.

Mark one more for the Conservatives... two if you count my wife.

 

[1feral1]

Well, like you said in less than 4 hrs we'll all know.

Eastern Canada, particularily Ontario and Quebec have always decided the fate of all elections, and the west as usual gets the shaft IMHO anyways  ;D

Do they still have that blackout??

OWDU