The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[Edward Campbell]

And, before I go off to run the morning’s errands, another bit of TRUTH, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.wreynolds1010/BNStory/robColumnsBlogs/home

One can only hope Harper responds like Bennett

NEIL REYNOLDS

Globe and Mail Update
October 10, 2008 at 6:00 AM EDT

You can't libel the dead – but you can disparage them. In the most demagogic moment of the federal election campaign, NDP Leader Jack Layton erroneously compared Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper with R.B. Bennett, the Conservative prime minister during the Great Depression (1930-1935). While we do not know if he was aware of his mistake, he nevertheless brought to mind H.L. Mencken's definition of the demagogue as a politician who says what he knows to be untrue to people he knows to be idiots. Why, otherwise, was there no vociferous repudiation – by anyone?

For the record, here's what Mr. Layton said: “Mr. Harper's response to the crisis in the banking system is to say that everything is fine, [that] nothing needs to change and [that] there are no problems. R.B. Bennett couldn't have said it better himself in 1930. What we saw at that point in time in Canadian history was denial that we had a problem. I think that we are now seeing the same kind of things from Mr. Harper.”

Set aside Mr. Layton's absurd assertion that Mr. Harper holds that “everything is fine.” Consider, for the moment, only Mr. Layton's statement that Bennett – governing in the worst years of the country's worst recession – denied that Canada was going through hard times. In fact, Bennett swept to power in 1930 (winning 134 seats) in a decisive victory over Liberal Prime Minister Mackenzie King (who won 90 seats). In fact, it was King who said that everything was fine.

As historian Michiel Horn, professor emeritus at Glendon College (York University) observed in The Globe only a week ago: “The wily and able” King seriously misjudged the first months of the Depression. “Unemployment was rising but it always rose in the winter,” Prof. Horn noted. “Periodic downturns in the business cycle were familiar events. [King] faced the election without fear.” King was “unconcerned.”

Bennett, on the other hand, called the Depression “the great dark days” of Canadian history. He won the election with his promise “to take whatever action is necessary to end [unemployment] or to perish in the attempt.” With an absolute majority in the Commons, he governed as aggressively (and often as ineffectively) as Democratic President Frank Delano Roosevelt governed in the U.S. The Supreme Court ruled much of Bennett's emergency New Deal legislation unconstitutional – precisely the same fate that befell important parts of Roosevelt's New Deal.

Bennett did, however, establish work camps for the unemployed. He did establish the Canadian Wheat Board. He did establish the CBC. He did establish the Bank of Canada. And he did negotiate reciprocity in trade with the U.S. – a historic agreement that produced large increases in bilateral trade in the years after his own electoral defeat in 1935.

Bennett's aggressive intervention didn't end the Depression – proving that our dark ages aren't necessarily obedient to heroic legislators. Mr. Harper appears to understand this elementary fact. It is noteworthy that Mr. Harper has “helped the manufacturing industry,” to use the requisite political phrase, by abolishing tariffs on a wide range of imported machinery and equipment – a lessening of government that will save Canadian manufacturers more than $340-million and increase efficiency and productivity at the same time. This is sophisticated government help. A little reciprocity always goes a long way.

Mr. Harper's “sectoral economic support” commitments – subsidies – meet the same test, though not as nicely. Assuming that Mr. Harper felt obliged “to do something” for Canada's aerospace and automotive industries, however ineffectively, the government will lend these industries $400-million for investment in advanced technologies. Mr. Harper insists that these loans will be repaid.

In an odd way, Mr. Harper does compare to R.B. Bennett – in niche philanthropy. Bennett sent cash in the mail – thousands of letters containing $5 bills, $10 bills, $20 bills, or more, depending upon the pleas that came to his desk – from a mother who couldn't buy milk for her children or from a boy who couldn't buy a wagon or from a family who couldn't make a mortgage payment.

For his part, Mr. Harper does a similar thing – though with other people's money – by legislating very small tax breaks for large numbers of people – the mother who needs help with TTC fares or the girl who can't afford flute lessons or the tradesman who needs new tools. It's a long list. Bennett's cash gifts didn't end the Depression and Mr. Harper's gimmicky tax breaks won't do much good, either. And they don't help anyone enough to make them an effective bribe.

In pursuit of a majority government, Mr. Harper has squandered a great deal of money in the past two years. He has been much more disciplined this time out, promising a dime for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's dollar. Contrary to Mr. Layton's libel, Mr. Harper has calmly coped with the ominous approach of what may very well be dark days ahead.

Two points:

• ”The demagogue as [is] a politician who says what he knows to be untrue to people he knows to be idiots” – that’s Jack Layton in spades; and

• Harper ”has been much more disciplined this time out, promising a dime for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's dollar. Contrary to Mr. Layton's libel, Mr. Harper has calmly coped with the ominous approach of what may very well be dark days ahead.”

Both are true

 

[Kalatzi]

Semi last chance prediction.

Liberal majority

Long weekend here and in the states, so markets likely to continue to go south in a big way.

Huge problems for whoever gets in.

Happy thanksgiving!

 

[Rodahn]

No bailout for the banks according to the PM, and yet according to the following article the government is buying $25 billion in mortgages.

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News/NationalNewsArticle.htm?src=n101027A.xml

 

[Rifleman62]

So Many Votes; So Little Intelligence.

 

[retiredgrunt45]

Well, I am in Afghanistan, and there is plenty of illicit stuff growing all around, so...

Happy Thanks giving brother, we're all thinking of you guys over there, stay safe.

 

[Rifleman62]

My unscientific impression after years of being a political junky, is that too many Canadians who bother to vote, use their vote tactically i.e.” I’m alright Jack, what’s in it for me?”,  rather than strategically,  “What’s good for Canada”. 

“Québec being a demandeur rather than a participant in the political process”? I fully believe in that statement. It is too bad that the feelings/wants of Quebec get in the way of what is best for Canada due to the number of parliamentary seats there.
 
Quebec voters have bled every national political party dry, then created their own national political party, while continuing to bleed the other national political parties dry. They are like the energizer bunny, they keep going and going. More power to them I guess. It works, but this is the “I’m alright Jack” principal.

Ontario is somewhat the same. Think about it, Dion as PM, Bob Rae as Finance Minister, and McCallum as Treasury Board!!! And people in Ontario want to vote Liberal??? It’s a free country.

So Harper is cold, so what. Does Canada want a dither as PM? We already had him with all his number one priorities.

I am opinionated. I am also a card carrying Conservative.

 

[a_majoor]

No bailout for the banks according to the PM, and yet according to the following article the government is buying $25 billion in mortgages.

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News/NationalNewsArticle.htm?src=n101027A.xml

The government is reacting to the global credit crunch, as the LIBOR goes through the roof. They have not nationalized the banks or the debt, nor does it seem they will have to unless global conditions worsen considerably. Remembering history, FDR's massive interventions created the "Great Depression" out of what would probably have been a market correction followed by a recession, so whoever is PM on the 15th better have a contingency plan in place if there is a Democrat Administration in the United States.

 

[a_majoor]

Preparation is the key; while the "Progressive" parties cry like Chicken Little, the government was taking steps a year ago to deal with this issue. I notice for all the fearmongering, I still have no idea what the NDP, Greens or Bloc intend to do about the global financial crisis:

http://www.clangmann.net/?p=142

On the Economy, Harper Was Right: The Oracle Project
Filed under: Harper, economics, politics — langmann @ 12:38 pm

A list of newspaper articles demonstrates Harper’s prescience one year ago.

Stephen Harper was right. This week Stephen Harper has been maintained and explained in detail what his Government has been doing over the last year to protect Canada from an economic disaster. The opposition parties all state he should have done “more” or things “differently”. When prodded, they are unable to explain exactly what they mean.

In fact opposition parties were decrying the notion that Canada could face an international economic disaster, Harper was fearmongering, and that Canada was predicted to only do well.

Here’s what they said:

    “Harper ready to give us the squeeze. Tells Canadians to tighten their belts as U.S. financial collapse looms” (Ottawa Sun, December 21, 2007).

    “In CTV’s year-end interview with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he says he’s concerned about the slowdown in the American economy and how it could impact businesses north of the border” (Canadian Press, December 20, 2007).

    “After almost two years of ‘don’t worry, be happy’, the PM has been raising a caution flag, if not an alarm, about the Canadian economy in the year ahead. ‘I think 2008 will be a more challenging year for the country and for the government,’ he predicted during a recent chat with us at 24 Sussex Dr.” (Greg Weston. Whitehouse Star, December 31, 2007).

    “Harper said he’ll be keeping watch on the looming storm on Canada’s economic horizon. ‘We know there is considerable uncertainty in the world economy, in the American economy, and we’ve seen very strong performance from our economy so far,’ he said Monday. ‘So obviously, our wish for the year is we’re able to sustain that momentum and shelter as best we can Canadians from any fallout of global economic problems’” (Canadian Press, December 31, 2007).

    ROBERT FIFE (Reporter): As the Prime Minister sat down with CTV to reflect on the past year, he has worries about the next. Top of mind, a threatening downturn in the American economy that will be felt north of the border.

    STEPHEN HARPER (Canadian Prime Minister): I believe that 2008 is likely to be a challenging year in terms of the economy… There’s no way we can be completely insulated from what’s going on in the United States or in the global economy (CTV National News, December 20, 2007).

The Liberals and the NDP in December 2007

    “[John] McCallum said the government is overstating the risks because many experts expect the Canadian economy to grow by up to 2.5 per cent this year, which would leave room for spending and tax initiatives” (Toronto Star, January 1, 2008).

    “McCallum accused Harper of sending a confusing message to consumers by combining talk of a tax cut with a warning the economy could be headed for trouble. ‘This is clearly a triumph of gimmickry over good public policy to announce the GST cut in a store and tell us the cupboard is bare,’ said McCallum. ’I think they’re trying to downplay expectations and then people will be positively surprised’” (Toronto Star, January 1, 2008).

    Stéphane Dion recently admitted that ‘It was difficult for us to write a chapter on a U.S. economic crisis when we were preparing our platform’ (Stéphane Dion, Le téléjournal, October 6, 2008).

    “NDP leader Jack Layton accused Mr. Harper of trying to ‘create a climate of fear’ to justify government plans for the economy, as he said the government has done to gain support for the war in Afghanistan and to avoid joining the global fight against climate change. ‘If the economy is getting into some trouble and the government’s finances are in some trouble, it’s because Mr. Harper has paid no attention to that issue (climate change) at all,’ Mr. Layton said, adding that his party will continue to vote against the government on no-confidence motions” (Ottawa Citizen, December 24, 2007).

    JACK LAYTON: “Well I think he is trying to create a climate of fear, and, you know, that’s been his approach unfortunately on some issues, whether it was the way in which we have gone to war in Afghanistan” (CTV, Question Period, December 23, 2007).

h/t to RDoyle

Anyone else have anymore examples to aid this project? I’ll add them to the collection.

The Conservatives should use these newspaper articles to make an advertisement. I think it would ring truth in the minds of voters at the current time. Pointing out the other guy’s faults, your forewarning, and then a few of your prudent actions: that is the stuff killer election advertisments are made of.

The problem is that the government has not communicated clearly on the economy, as well as on other issues, with the consequent inability to frame or express the issues at election time.

 

[ModlrMike]

No bailout for the banks according to the PM, and yet according to the following article the government is buying $25 billion in mortgages.

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News/NationalNewsArticle.htm?src=n101027A.xml

Yes, but unlike the mortgages in the US, ours are not in default. What the government is doing, is injecting cash into the banking system so that banks can execute loans to Canadians. One of the effects of the credit crunch is that of supply and demand. There is a far greater demand for cash now as US and European banks hoard cash to prevent "runs" on their banks. The result is a drop in the available cash for Canadian banks.

 

[GAP]

The way it was just explained on a CTV clip, the government will purchase mortgages from the banks to ensure the banks are capitalized enough to make loans, etc...I assume the government just collects on the mortgages until they are renewed with whomever....

 

[ModlrMike]

The way it was just explained on a CTV clip, the government will purchase mortgages from the banks to ensure the banks are capitalized enough to make loans, etc...I assume the government just collects on the mortgages until they are renewed with whomever....

Exactly! The government even stands to make a profit because it will cost less to finance these mortgages than they paid for them.

 

[George Wallace]

The way it was just explained on a CTV clip, the government will purchase mortgages from the banks to ensure the banks are capitalized enough to make loans, etc...I assume the government just collects on the mortgages until they are renewed with whomever....

They are covering the Mortgage Insurance, not collecting mortgages.

 

[GAP]

They are covering the Mortgage Insurance, not collecting mortgages.

seen

 

[Rodahn]

They are covering the Mortgage Insurance, not collecting mortgages.

Not according to this....

The government moved to lubricate a rapidly congealing credit market by swapping $25 billion in mortgage assets with Canada's big banks - a move the prime minister billed as necessary, sensible and risk-free.

Link to article here.....

http://www.680news.com/news/national/more.jsp?content=n1010105A

 

[Edward Campbell]

New polls as we get closer and closer to the end.

--------------------

Ekos says:
SEAT PROJECTION - OCTOBER 10, 2008
Tories Once gain Knocking on Door of Majority

BQ: 57 seats (-1 from the 6 Oct 08 projection)
Cons: 152 seats (+22 “ )
Greens: 0 seats (NC “ )
Libs: 60 seats (-18 “ )
NDP: 39 seats (-3 “ )
Other: 0 seats (-1 “)

The Ekos data that provoked this major change is:

Conservative Lead Grows as Canadians Expect 2nd Harper Government

BQ: 10% (NC from the 9 Oct 08 results)
Cons: 36% (+1 “ )
Greens: 11% (NC “ )
Libs: 24% (NC “ )
NDP: 19% (-1 “ )

--------------------

Harris-Decima says:

Conservative Support Firms, Lead by 8

BQ: 9% (=1 from the 9 Oct 08 results)
Cons: 34% (+2 “ )
Greens: 12% (+1 “ )
Libs: 26% (-1 “ )
NDP: 18% (-1 % )

--------------------

Nanos says:

BQ:  10% (NC from the 9 Oct 08 results)
Cons: 33% (NC “ )
Greens: 8% (+1 “ )
Libs: 27% (-2 “ )
NDP: 22% (+2 )

--------------------

All I can divine from all this is that the Liberals’ frantic attempt to woo NDP and Green voters is not working.

Just one or two more polls to go.

 

[Old Sweat]

Is there not a restriction on publishing poll results in the last few days of an election campaign? Or have I been listening to the little voices in my head; the same ones that tell me not to go to work and instead stay home and clean my guns?

 

[Rodahn]

Is there not a restriction on publishing poll results in the last few days of an election campaign? Or have I been listening to the little voices in my head; the same ones that tell me not to go to work and instead stay home and clean my guns?

:rofl:

We must have the same sort of little voices... I'm thinking about a combined low wire entanglement and minefield.....

 

[Edward Campbell]

Is there not a restriction on publishing poll results in the last few days of an election campaign? Or have I been listening to the little voices in my head; the same ones that tell me not to go to work and instead stay home and clean my guns?

There was, but, for the life of me, I cannot remember how long it was (does 48 hours sound right?) or even if it is still in place.

Anyone? Bueller ... anyone?

 

[George Wallace]

Not according to this....

The government moved to lubricate a rapidly congealing credit market by swapping $25 billion in mortgage assets with Canada's big banks - a move the prime minister billed as necessary, sensible and risk-free.

Link to article here.....

http://www.680news.com/news/national/more.jsp?content=n1010105A

Not being an Accountant or Financial guru, but:  $25B credit backstop for banks 'not a bailout': Harper

"We are not going in and buying bad assets. What we're doing is simply exchanging assets that we already hold the insurance on and the reason we're doing this is to get out in front. The issue here is not protecting the banks."

Earlier in the day, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced the government's plan to buy the securities through the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp. and provide much-needed cash to financial institutions that sell the so-called "National Housing Act mortgage-backed securities."

Under the proposal, Ottawa plans to sell a combination of government bonds and other public debt instruments to raise the $25 billion. Then CMHC will ask the banks and other financial institutions to ascertain how much debt they would like to sell to the agency, using a process known as a reverse auction.

Conceptually speaking, the financial companies will offer CMHC the debt at a discount to its face value. Starting with the bids containing the largest discounts, the housing corporation will buy these instruments from the financial institutions until the agency uses up the $25 billion.

This way, Ottawa injects money into a cash-strapped market. In return, the government gets a series of securities with a rate of return well in excess of the rate Ottawa would pay on the $25 billion it borrows in the first place.

 

[Zell_Dietrich]

I haven't posted here for a while...

1)  Opinion Poll Blackout:  http://scc.lexum.umontreal.ca/en/1998/1998rcs1-877/1998rcs1-877.html  But for a really fun read http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=loi&document=index&dir=leg/fel&lang=e&textonly=false 


2) Mr. Dion's supposed flub during the interview.,..  http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/10/10/198100.aspx it has a full clip of it.  I love how the reporter says "I'm okay to start again"  then says "oh I shouldn't have agreed to start over"

Now,  grammatically the question doesn't make sense.  It really doesn't. It has logical issues - if you were now something that were were being what would you do different from what now had been done"  (now say that in french)    This really was a misunderstanding and god knows we've heard PM Harper's french...

Which reminds me,  Stephen Harper pounced on that flub like a drowning man grabs a life preserver. 


3)  The recent action of a $25-billion backstop for the banks,  despite Mr Layton's opposition will benefit the kitchen table.  The cost of borrowing money has gone up for the banks,  this action is a quick cheep way for the government to help lower the bank's costs of borrowing money.  Upon the announcement the interest rates the banks lend out at went down - that helps the economy.  I think it was an innovative and creative solution,  paired with the lowering of the interest rate from the central banks will be like pouring gasoline on a fire.