The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[Edward Campbell]

Take these data from Ekos with a grain of salt – which they, truthfully, provide - but they do provide one scenario for a Conservative majority.

 

[ModlrMike]

Well... I can see that comment surfacing early in the debate.

 

[GAP]

This is sure heating up what with May threatening legal action AGAIN...last time the party leaders backed off, this blogger is not....[/color]

I guess if May wants to play with the big boys, she's going to have to pay the same price for dumb comments

'Canadians Are Stupid!" - Elizabeth May
Article Link

Oh bring on the debate!!! Let's see Elizabeth May call Canadians 'stupid' on a live National Leaders Debate ... just like she did in this clip!

Make sure you read my friend, Dipper Chick's analysis of Canada's Green Party.

NOTE: (There is high traffic on youtube tonight watching this video so if you can't access it at the moment ... try back in a bit. The rightwingosphere is going nuts with this clip tonight as well on Steven Taylors site and oher blogging tory sites - Here is an mp3 copy - it comes up at the 1:50 minute mark. You should be able to play it on realplayer or some such. mp3 format
More on link

Thursday, September 11, 2008
Green Party Of Canada Threatens BUCKDOG BLOG With Lawsuit In Attempt To Suppress Freedom Of Speech!

From: John Bennett
To: leftdog@hushmail.com
Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2008 12:37:56 -0600

Please be informed that the if the video

Canadians Are Stupid!" - Elizabeth May

is not removed from your site with the hour the Green Party of Canada will seek means to prevent legal proceedings further slander.


John Bennett
Director of Communications
Green Party of Canada
(613) 562-4916 ext. 230
(Cell: 613) 291 6888
Fax: (613) 482-4632
-------------------------- (To which I replied) ----------------

Dear Mr. Bennett
You are attempting to shoot the messenger here. I am merely
reporting ... as is my right as a citizen journalist ... an item
that is CURRENTLY POSTED ON YOUTUBE ... with the following URL:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIxmfBPrptM

I did NOT post this item on youtube NOR did I produce it.
Therefore your threats to me as a citizen journalist have been
turned over to my solicitor.

Should I receive an apology from you within the hour, I will take
no further action against the Green Party of Canada which would
include:
1) A nationwide news release which includes the text of your
threatening email to me,
2) Details which show that I had NOTHING to do with the production
nor posting of the item in question on youtube,
3) That as a citizen journalist, the Green Party of Canada is
attempting to suppress my freedom of speech,
4) A blog posting itemizing what has occured here including your
threatening email to me.

Should your apology to me be received within the hour as I stated,
I will take no further action against the Green Party of Canada

Leftdog
Regina

------------------------ (To which Ms. May's representative replied --------
From: John Bennett
To: leftdog@hushmail.com
Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:11:13 -0600

You are knowingly asisting in slander get it down or you face legal action us & TVO.

Journalism is more than repeating. You have a responsibility to verify the facts.

Get get it down now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE -
You will note that it appears that I am the ONLY blogger carring this story who had legal action threatened by the Green Party of Canada. The video still remains at Stephen Taylors site!More on link

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is the Nanos poll released today - which makes it he most recent poll:

The numbers in (brackets) are changes from the last poll, I assume

Party Preference
BQ:              9% (+1)
Cons:          37% (+4)
Greens:        9% (+2)
Libs:            32% (-3)
NDP:            13% (-4)
Undecided:  19% (+3)

So the big winners are the Conservatives; the big losers are the NDP and Liberals who send their supporters to the Conservative and Undecided columns.

Best PM
Dion:        4% (-1)
Duceppe:  3% (-2)
Harper:    38% (+2)
Layton:    15% (-2)
May:        5% (+1)
Unsure:  19% (+7)

Wow! More people (38%) think Harper is the best choice for PM than have that opinion about Dion, Duceppe, Layton and May combined (37%).

Most competent/trustworthy leader
Dion:      42 (-6)
Duceppe: 10 (-2)
Harper:  103 (+10)
Layton:    42 (+2)
May:      17 (+3)

This time Harper’s total (103) exceeds that of Dion, Layton and May combined (101).

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is a report on a Liberal misstep:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080911.welxnlibresign0911/BNStory/politics/home

Dion fires Quebec candidate for contentious native remarks

RHÉAL SÉGUIN

Globe and Mail Update
September 11, 2008 at 5:55 PM EDT

QUEBEC — Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion stepped in to end an embarrassing controversy for his party by firing a Quebec City Liberal candidate for his contentious views on natives.

Simon Bédard, 65, the Liberal candidate for the riding of Quebec, found himself in the middle of a heated debate when the media reported comments he made when he was a radio host in 1990. Mr. Bédard called for the extermination of the Mohawks during the 1990 native stand-off in Kanesetake that resulted in the shooting of a Sûreté du Québec officer.

When he was a radio host, Mr. Bédard said: “You go in there with the army and you clean up the place. Fifty deaths! 100 deaths! 125 deaths! It's over. You bury it and you move on.”

Earlier this week, Mr. Bédard did not deny making the remarks, telling the local media that the existence of an “underground mafia” in Kanesetake supported his views. He said that Mr. Dion had “enough backbone” to intervene in Kanesetake.

On Thursday, Mr. Bédard apologized for making the comments, saying his views on natives had changed over the years. The chief of the Huron-Wendat First nation in Quebec City, Max Gros-Louis, was appalled by Mr. Bédard's remarks and called for his resignation. “It's outright racism. It's regrettable that Canadians want to run for office after holding such views about native people,” Mr. Gros-Louis told local daily Le Soleil.

At party headquarters in Ottawa, Liberal campaign organizer Senator Celine Hervieux-Payette at first accepted Mr. Bédard's apology.

But on Thursday, Mr. Dion ruled otherwise and ordered Mr. Bédard to resign.

“Today I announce that I have asked for and received the resignation of Simon Bédard as the Liberal Party of Canada's candidate in the riding of Québec,” Mr. Dion sated inn a press release. ‘While Mr. Bédard has clearly indicated that he no longer holds those views, the Liberal Party of Canada's proud tradition of support for our Aboriginal communities must not be overshadowed by these comments.”

A quick survey of a few media web pages, including La Presse and Le Droit, indicates that the Ryan Sparrow firing (Conservative mistake) is still big news; one is hard pressed to find any news about M. Bédard’s demise.

 

[GAP]

A quick survey of a few media web pages, including La Presse and Le Droit, indicates that the Ryan Sparrow firing (Conservative mistake) is still big news; one is hard pressed to find any news about M. Bédard’s demise.

It will be interesting to see what Mike Duffy and CBC National have to say about it (there WAS a short blurb about it on CBC radio news at 6)

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well, this kind of bafflegab may sway some emotional and ill informed voters, but not me. I haven't even been watching the news or reading the papers. I'm basing my vote on the history, accomplishments and carry through of promises made by the parties of today. My mind is already made up. Barring a catastrophic meltdown, my vote is cast.

IMHO, given today's politics, anyone voting for on the platform and promises of the current election hype, hollow promises and cheap double talk of the campaign, is wasting their vote.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is a report on a Liberal misstep:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080911.welxnlibresign0911/BNStory/politics/home
A quick survey of a few media web pages, including La Presse and Le Droit, indicates that the Ryan Sparrow firing (Conservative mistake) is still big news; one is hard pressed to find any news about M. Bédard’s demise.

Looking a the front pages of three newspapers (Globe and Mail, National Post and Ottawa Citizen) I see stories on:

• Dion’s green plan would ‘wreak havoc’
• Harper plays populist tune on arts cuts
• Soldier’s father shows grace under fire – a revisit to the Ryan Sparrow blunder
• Mother killed sons four years apart – if it bleeds it leads, I suppose
• Parties clash over economy
• Election 2008: Tory aide suspended – Ryan Sparrow, again
• Top Tory aide suspended over gaffe
• Cosgrove’s apology in handling of 1998 trial ‘too little, too late,’ murder victim’s son says

Not a mention, anywhere on the front pages, of the dumping of Celine Stéphane Dion’s candidate Simon Bédard for suggesting that shooting aboriginals is good public policy. In fairness, I did find the story at the bottom corner of page 5 of the Citizen – in the IN BRIEF section.

 

[a_majoor]

Greens showing their true colours:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&u=http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20080912/CPELECFED02/809120850/7068/CPELECFED

May ready to do anything to beat Harper
Joel-Denis Bellavance
La Presse
Ottawa

The head of the Green Party, Elizabeth May, will ask its troops in the last sprint of the election campaign to put their political weight behind the Liberal candidate Stéphane Dion in certain constituencies where the fight is pressed to block the road to Conservatives Stephen Harper.

This approach awaited Ms. May is an integral part of the non-aggression pact concluded between the leader of the Green Party and the Liberal leader Stéphane Dion in April 2007, was told La Presse yesterday.

Under the pact, the Liberal Party does not present a candidate against Ms. May in Central Nova, NS, in order to maximize its chances to bite the dust to the Minister of Defence, the Conservative Peter MacKay.

In exchange, the Green Party has no candidate who is seeking re-election against Stéphane Dion in the riding of Saint-Laurent-Cartierville.

But the pact also provides that Ms. May will eventually decide in favor of the election of Stéphane Dion as prime minister in the last days of the election campaign. This electoral strategy had never been revealed so far.

The strategy adopted by the Liberals and Greens last year no doubt explains in large part why Stéphane Dion defended tooth and nail the participation of Elizabeth May in the debates of leaders who will be held on 1 and 2 October at the National Arts Centre .

Mr. Dion was also the only political leader to denounce the leaders of other political parties, particularly the Conservative Stephen Harper and New Democrat Jack Layton, and the consortium of broadcasters representing the major television networks across the country for their refusal to include Elizabeth May in the debate.

After two days of controversy, Jack Layton and Stephen Harper have finally changed their rifle shoulder, thus leading the consortium of broadcasters to invite the leader of the Green Party two games in french speaking and English.

"The idea of the agreement is like a non-aggression pact for that on the eve of the vote, making sure that environmentalists forces in urban centres align themselves around Stéphane Dion. In discussions with Ms. May, it was implicitly understood that calls for Mr. Dion. This has always been the spirit of the agreement, "said a source familiar with liberal talks between the Liberals and Greens.

In the past, Ms. May has never bothered to encenser Stéphane Dion when he was Minister of the Environment in the minority Liberal government of Paul Martin.

The Green Party also welcomed the Turn Green proposed by Stéphane Dion saying it is not in the right direction. Mr. Dion proposes to impose a carbon tax and use the revenue from this tax - about 15 billion dollars - to reduce taxes on taxpayers and businesses.

But the Green Party proposes a more ambitious plan, or imposing a carbon tax of $ 50 per tonne which would allow the state to collect $ 40 billion. The three quarters of this sum would come from businesses and corporations. In turn, the Green Party wants to use this money to offer "tax relief to Canadians by reducing taxes and social charges, establishing the sharing of income, providing additional support to low-income families and families living in rural areas, and helping students crushed by the burden of their student debt. "

Asked about the pact between the Liberals and Greens yesterday, the NDP MP Thomas Mulcair said not to be surprised by the scope of the pact between the Liberals and Greens.

"It does not surprise me. We already know that Ms. May will send emails to candidates who are not candidates green. There is something wrong. It supports Stéphane Dion as prime minister. It is quite plausible, "said Mulcair.

A spokesman for the Green Party, Camille Labchuk, denied that the scope of "comity agreement" between Ms. May and Mr. Dion will possibly through support of the leader of the Green Party during the election campaign.

"The agreement does not go farther than that. We will have candidates against the Liberals in 306 ridings (308). It is without merit. The Green Party wants to elect Green MPs, "said Labchuk.

However, Elizabeth May had said in an interview with Devoir in May its readiness to consider an electoral strategy would be to ask voters in all regions of the country concerned about climate change to support the candidate with the most chance of defeating the Conservative candidate.

When asked whether she would support a movement "Anybody but Harper," Ms. May said without hesitation: "Yes, this is a very interesting idea."

 

[George Wallace]

Not a mention, anywhere on the front pages, of the dumping of Celine Stéphane Dion’s candidate Simon Bédard for suggesting that shooting aboriginals is good public policy. In fairness, I did find the story at the bottom corner of page 5 of the Citizen – in the IN BRIEF section.

Links?

This is pretty quiet.  First I have heard of this.  So many times in the past the Liberals have done this.  Reminds me of the way they handled the purchase of the Griffons;  small article on page 5, while front page news on them cancelling the EH 101.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Links?

This is pretty quiet.  First I have heard of this.  So many times in the past the Liberals have done this.  Reminds me of the way they handled the purchase of the Griffons;  small article on page 5, while front page news on them cancelling the EH 101.

The original story (yesterday), proper, is here.

Here is the 'story' as it appears at the bottom corner of page 5 in the print edition of the Citizen.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Now, if it comes true, this, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, might be the best promise Harper can make to address the real problems facing Canada:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.welxnharper0912/BNStory/Front

Harper promises to relax foreign investment rules

STEVEN CHASE

Globe and Mail Update
September 12, 2008 at 9:45 AM EDT

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is vowing a Tory government would open up Canada's corporate sector to more foreign investment, including relaxing rules for outsiders buying into its airline and uranium industries.

But he's trying to balance this with a pledge to give tougher scrutiny to takeovers by non-Canadians, promising a new national security test for buyouts that might threaten the country's strategic interests.

"We are a party of free enterprise, free markets and free trade," Mr. Harper told a Halifax audience. "But we also believe a government needs to know when to be able to draw the line when any foreign takeover would jeopardize our national security."

Mr. Harper said a new Tory government would raise the threshold for automatic government reviews of all foreign takeovers to $1-billion from the $295-million mark that exists today. This threshold would rise over four years after he took office.


A Conservative government would also seek to open Canada's airlines to more foreign ownership, raising the investment limit for outsiders to 49 per cent from 25 per cent.

But this would only apply to foreign jurisdictions — such as the European Union and the United States — once those nations granted the same rights to Canadian investors through bilateral negotiations.

The same would go for investments in Canada's uranium sector, where foreigners are prohibited from owning more than 49 per cent of companies. The Tories say they would remove this cap to allow majority ownership, but only for countries that give Canadian companies commensurate rights and benefits — and pass the new national security test they would put in place.

"We will allow [more] foreign ownership of uranium mining and producing provided that such investments meet a national security test and that Canada receives comparable benefits from investor nations," Mr. Harper said.

Uranium is a vital ingredient for nuclear power and weaponry. Current Canadian production is dominated by the two largest uranium mining companies in the world, Cameco and France's Areva SA.

Mr. Harper is taking his cue in some of these recommendations from a June 2008 report prepared for the federal government called Compete to Win that recommended giving foreign investors more room to invest in Canada as way to stimulate economic growth. The study, which had been commissioned by the Tory government, was chaired by Lynton (Red) Wilson, a former chairman of BCE Inc.

But the Tories are steering clear of any pledges on far more controversial ideas such as allowing bank mergers or opening up Canada's telecommunication sector to more foreign investment.

This part (this would only apply to foreign jurisdictions — such as the EU and the US — once those nations granted the same rights to Canadian investors) is good policy, but this other bit (the Tories are steering clear of any pledges on far more controversial ideas such as allowing bank mergers or opening up Canada's telecommunication sector to more foreign investment) is bad policy – bad for consumers, bad for investors and bad for productivity. Competition works.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Looking a the front pages of three newspapers (Globe and Mail, National Post and Ottawa Citizen) I see stories on:
. . .
• Soldier’s father shows grace under fire – a revisit to the Ryan Sparrow blunder
• Election 2008: Tory aide suspended – Ryan Sparrow, again
. . .
• Top Tory aide suspended over gaffe
. . .
Not a mention, anywhere on the front pages, of the dumping of Celine Stéphane Dion’s candidate Simon Bédard for suggesting that shooting aboriginals is good public policy. In fairness, I did find the story at the bottom corner of page 5 of the Citizen – in the IN BRIEF section.

While it is a given that there may be is some media bias in their stressing of some stories over others, there is a difference between the two firings.  Sparrow is (albeit but one of the many brash, inexperienced thirty-somethings) at the national level of the Tory election bid plus his comments were recent and directly related to a recent "untouchable" subject in the Canadian discourse, the memory of our war dead.  Bédard, on the other hand, made his comments back in the early 90s when he was of that other brash group who speaks before thinking and believes that volume trumps intelligence, the radio talk show host.  While the Liberals should be faulted for a poor screening of this particular candidate (though this is probably more the fault of the riding leadership), this is more of a "local" story than a national one.

 

[GAP]

Nik on the numbers...

CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 11th) shows the Conservatives seven points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters. (CP 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 14%, BQ 9% GP 9%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (Lib 40%; CP 39%) with the Tories extending their lead in the West to 18 points (CP 45%; Lib 27%).

On the best PM front Stephen Harper was the choice of four in ten Canadians (39%), followed by Jack Layton and Stephane Dion. (Best PM - Harper 39%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 4%, Duceppe 3%, None 7% and undecided 18%).

The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Harper continues to lead the other party leaders by a wide margin with an Index score of 105 points compared to Jack Layton (45 points) and Stephane Dion (43 points). Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe trailed the other party leaders with leadership index scores of 16 and 12 points respectively.

Tune in to Prime Time Politics tonight at 8 pm on CPAC for a recap of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.

Visit Nik on the Numbers and join our national political conversation and post your comments on this poll.

Nik will be on CPAC Prime Time Politics every night except Sundays. Also watch for his live blogs on CPAC every Thursday night.

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our new polling portal website at www.nanosresearch.com. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates at the Nanos polling portal.


  Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1200 random interviews.


The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 11, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=975, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 38% (+1)
Liberal Party 31% (-1)
NDP 14% (+1)
BQ 9% (NC)
Green Party 9% (NC)
Undecided 19% (NC)


Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

Conservative leader Stephen Harper 39% (+1)
NDP leader Jack Layton 15% (NC)
Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
None of them 7% (-1)
Unsure 18% (-1)


Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada's future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

Stephen Harper 105 (+2)
Jack Layton 45 (+3)
Stephane Dion 43 (+1)
Elizabeth May 16 (-1)
Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is the Ekos data. Some highlights are:

The Tory lead is in “gentle decline” and, according to Ekos, puts them back in minority territory. I would suggest that the Liberals had not wasted the first week of a five week campaign IF they got most of  the 5 points the Conservatives lost over four days BUT that is not the case – the gains (plus gains resulting from the NDP's decline - which, in statistical terms, is not so gentle) were distributed fairly evenly between the Liberals (+3), Greens (+2) and BQ (+2). In fact, I’m guessing that the big winner is the BQ, in its battle with Tories in Québec (outside of Montréal). I’m also guessing that:

• The Liberals and Greens gained most at the expense of the NDP – an early sign of strategic voting that must terrify Jack Layton; and

• The Green gain is temporary – caused by low level outrage (at Harper and Layton) over he debate debacle.

It is worth noting that the Tories lead in all age and income groups – the lead grows with age and income but even young people and low income earners prefer the Conservatives, albeit not by large margins. I think that means that the “safe, sound management in uncertain times” message works.

Dion has four more weeks to remind Canadians that they neither like nor trust Stephen Harper – even though they respect him.

Harper has four weeks to convince Canadians that Dion, himself, is weak, feckless and downright dangerous to their pocketbooks.

Layton has four weeks to convince Canadians that:

• Strategic voting is bad; and

• He, not Stéphane Dion, was the real opposition leader in the last parliament and is the best choice to face Harper in the next one.

Duceppe has four weeks to convince Québecers that they still have real grievances and that they should vote with their hearts, not their brains.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Jeffrey Simpson is not famous for being in love with Conservatives, in general, or Stephen Harper in particular, but he is virtually gushing in this column, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.wsimpson13/BNStory/Front

Despite goofs and gaffes, Harper wins the week

JEFFREY SIMPSON

From Saturday's Globe and Mail
September 12, 2008 at 11:26 PM EDT

TORONTO — The Conservatives made news with their gaffes, but they still gained ground in the campaign's first week. They goofed on the little things beloved of the media; they scored with their basic campaign strategy.

The Conservatives covered every region of the country with their leader's tour. They deliberately campaigned in ridings and areas where the party was weak, a sign of confidence and expected gains; the Liberals played it safe, largely campaigning in Liberal ridings before small crowds, a sign of concern. Without a plane for most of the week, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion covered much less territory than Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

The Conservatives made mistakes that, in turn, made headlines: the pooping puffin, the dismissal of a leading press spokesman who accused a soldier's father of being a Liberal partisan, being on the wrong side of Green Leader Elizabeth May's participation in the televised debates. In the parlance of political insiders, these mistakes threw the campaign “off message,” and were undoubtedly infuriating to the Conservative campaign organizers.

None did any serious damage; in fact, they created opportunities that the Conservatives seized and the media largely misinterpreted. Most Canadians aren't following the campaign closely. It's too early for many of them to focus, if they indeed ever do. The gaffes reinforced anti-Conservative views of those who weren't going to vote for the party anyway. They provided grist for the media mill, and a little humour.

Conservative opponents regaled themselves at unexpected flashes of prime ministerial humility. They should have feared the Conservative Leader's apologies and changes of position, because these flashes fit with the Conservatives' effort to soften Mr. Harper's image, an effort that began with pre-election ads showing him in a sweater and talking about family.

The media played up and delighted in the gaffes, invested them with headlines and analysis, and largely missed the reasons that the campaign's underlying trends were swinging steadily toward the Conservatives. Harris/Decima, whose pre-election poll had the Conservatives and Liberals essentially tied, revealed Friday that the Conservatives had opened a cavernous 41-26 per cent lead, enough for a majority government. Conservatives were gaining in urban Canada, among women and in Quebec. Liberals were fading everywhere, except Atlantic Canada, according to Harris-Decima. A Nanos poll released Friday gave the Conservatives 38 per cent and the Liberals 31 per cent.

Mr. Harper campaigned with confidence and some humility at one level, while at another he flayed the Liberals, often misinterpreting the substance of Liberal policies. The double strategy of humility and haranguing worked. The Liberals had no answer for it, except to sputter about the Conservative Leader “lying.”

The Conservatives hammered the same themes: the dangers of the Liberals' Green Shift, whose “carbon tax” Mr. Harper said would “wreck the economy”; family-friendly policies; and, in Quebec, the Conservatives' welcoming attitude toward Quebec nationalism.

Then, the Conservatives pre-empted for political reasons any possible attack on their Afghanistan policy when Mr. Harper ruled out any extension of the Kandahar mission beyond 2011.

Distractions aside, the Conservatives know what they are doing, how to do it, whom they are targeting and with what messages. The campaign tour runs with paramilitary precision. Local candidates, as in previous elections, are prevented from speaking to journalists. The whole campaign revolves around Mr. Harper, as does the entire government. Ministers are pygmies in the campaign, as most of them are in the government, and it would appear nothing will change after the election, since the Conservatives have attracted almost no new candidates of great stature. As they paraded out their new candidates across the country, the most common reaction was: Who?

The Conservatives are trying (thus far successfully) to defang Mr. Harper among swing voters. The entire Conservative strategic effort – in which policy, speechmaking and advertising reinforce each other – is to make Canadians, or more precisely middle-class Canadians, feel comfortable with the idea of Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party as middle-of-the-road, pragmatic, non-ideological.

The Liberal and especially the New Democratic Party campaigns are predicated, in part, on scaring Canadians that Mr. Harper and the Conservatives are ideologues outside the Canadian mainstream, whatever that is. They yell and shout about the risks Mr. Harper poses. So far, the scary images they have painted of Mr. Harper aren't sticking, beyond their own core supporters. Instead, he gives an interview to The Globe and Mail about his love of piano and the years he spent playing it. The humanization of Mr. Harper is as calculated and strategic as the man himself.

As always, the campaigning was different in Quebec. The Liberals are all but irrelevant there – Harris/Decima gives them only 17 per cent, which means almost no French-speaking support – so the fight is now between the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois, with the Bloc clearly on the defensive. Mr. Harper started his campaign in Quebec City and was in Montreal on Friday. Expect to see him there a lot more as the campaign unfolds, since winning two or even three dozen more seats in Quebec is the Conservatives' single most important objective.

The Liberals were all over the map politically. Their campaign lacked a solid underlying theme. For all his best intentions, Mr. Dion still struggles to explain his Green Shift. It remains little understood, and a political loser with gas prices rising again. The mere word “tax” scares people. In the sound-bite world, the Green Shift takes too long to explain, as in 30 seconds instead of 10. (A survey of a recent U.S. election found the average length of a television sound bite was eight seconds.) Put crudely, Mr. Dion is not popular, and his principal policy is unpopular. Each drags the other down, the question now being how far.

Worse for the Liberals, nothing that Mr. Dion did this week suggested he could close the yawning gap – 25 points in some surveys – between the perception of his leadership skills and those of Mr. Harper. The bad news for Liberals is that the less interested voters are in politics, the more they are influenced if they vote by leadership perceptions.

Mr. Harper runs ahead of his party; Mr. Dion runs behind his. Unless those perceptions change, it's going to be a long campaign and an unhappy result for the Liberals when the undecided and loosely committed begin making up their minds, as they usually do toward the end of the campaign.

Liberals might now believe Canadians would rally to a call to stop the Conservatives from securing a majority. The Liberals hope that when their paid advertisements begin next week some opinions might change. Quite apart from this appeal being too late, it would be risky, since it would all but concede defeat, dishearten workers and, quite possibly, risk sending some voters fleeing to the NDP and Greens on the theory that, since the Conservatives are going to win, why not reinforce smaller parties and strengthen their voices against the Conservatives.

Liberals might also take early solace from the possibility of a leader exceeding expectations. A few Liberals are saying privately that since expectations are so low for Mr. Dion, he could surprise Canadians in the televised debates and so revive Liberal fortunes. Perhaps. But it is also true that low expectations usually exist for a reason, or a series of reasons, and that these are more easily reinforced than changed by more extended exposure.

Now, the partisan talking heads are suggesting that the lead Harper’s Conservatives enjoy - in pretty much every poll and every question - is dangerous. Canadians, some suggest, are afraid of Harper’s hidden agenda™ and they will, in due course, come to their senses and vote strategically - against a Tory majority. A conspiracy theorist might, therefore, suggest that Simpson is trying to help the anti-Tory crowd by scaring Canadians into fearing a Harper majority.

I think Simpson is sounding a warning but it is about Liberal failure, not Conservative  success.

The Liberals lost the first week – no question in my mind. Effectively, they wasted 1/5th of the campaign.

I think the Liberals need to:

• Emphasize the Liberal ‘brand’ and the Liberal leadership team – Canadians will, I think, react more favourably to e.g. Hall-Findlay, Ignatieff and Rae than they do to Dion; and

• Broaden the platform base. The Green Shaft Shift scares many, too many, Canadians. The Liberals know how to appeal to Canadians, I’m surprised they’re not doing it better.

But I’m a card carrying Conservative so the Grits are unlikely to heed my advice. 

 

[Old Sweat]

It sometimes seems that the Liberals are shopping for the mercy vote. In our riding (Leeds-Grenville, which makes up the two united counties that run south from the Rideau to the Seaway) they held their nomination meeting Wednesday evening with two female candidates running for the slot. One was from within the riding and the other was parachuted in. The latter lived in Ottawa and had served in the Chretien PMO for ten years.

Not surprisingly the outsider won the nomination. In her acceptance speech, as dutifully reported in the Brockville Recorder and Times, she said as a resident of Ottawa she had always wanted to visit Belleville.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And its working!    You know things are bad when even I start to feel sorry for the Liberals.

 

[GAP]

You will notice the complete absence of all other Liberal Leadership candidates on the Liberal trail....the only one I even heard of was Ignatiaf speaking on Dave Rutherford the other day....otherwise they are minding their own business and essentially telling Dion to have a go at it

 

[Edward Campbell]

And yet more poll data, this time from Harris-Decima, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of he Copyright Act from the Canadian Press web site:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gXNa8Kb7CaCsaeHKBTG1l3BG98fA

Tories on brink of majority despite bad press: poll

18 hours ago

OTTAWA — Stephen Harper got some good news Friday amid the bad headlines - a new poll suggests his Conservatives could be headed for a majority government.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey has the Tories flying high with 41 per cent support, well ahead of the Liberals at 26 per cent. The strong showing comes despite days of negative media coverage over Tory campaign gaffes and a high-profile flip-flop by Harper.

The telephone poll - which surveyed 1,406 adults Monday through Thursday - put the NDP at 14 per cent, the Green party at nine, and the Bloc Quebecois at eight.

Harris-Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the Conservatives picked up ground in every region of the country, in urban Canada, and among women.

He attributed the strong showing to a Tory advertising blitz which appears to have succeeded in convincing voters that Harper is a moderate.

"It's clear many voters were willing to re-elect the Conservatives and Stephen Harper and wanted to be given just a few more reasons and a little more reassurance," Anderson said.

"The Conservative campaign has been giving them what they were looking to find, redefining itself as a party not crusading to remake Canada, but to govern it from the centre, and repositioning Mr. Harper so he is perceived less as a firebrand conservative ideologue and more as a decent, thoughtful, competent everyman."

Anderson also said the recent campaign blunders have allowed Harper to reinforce the notion that he has changed.

Harper apologized immediately for a sophomoric Tory website ad showing a bird pooping on Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

And he moved swiftly to suspend his party's communications director over a partisan swipe at a dead soldier's dad.

The prime minister also backtracked amid public outrage after threatening to boycott the leaders debate if Green Leader Elizabeth May was allowed to participate.

Poll respondents were asked: "If a federal election were held tomorrow, who do you think you would be voting for in your area."

The survey is considered accurate to within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Among the results:

- The Conservatives jumped to a 10-point lead in urban Canada and a 13-point lead among women.

- The Tories overtook the Liberals in Ontario, reaching 41 per cent. The Liberals were at 34 per cent, the NDP at 13 and the Greens at 11. The margin of error for the Ontario sample is 4.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

- In Quebec, the Bloc was at 35 per cent, the Conservatives at 28, the Liberals at 17, the NDP at 10, and the Greens at seven. The margin of error is 5.5 percentage points.

- In B.C., the Conservatives were well out in front with 45 per cent support, followed by the NDP at 22, the Liberals at 20, and the Greens at 11. The margin of error is 6.4 percentage points.

- The Liberals led in Atlantic Canada with 40 per cent. The Tories trailed at 32, the NDP at 22, and the Greens at three. The margin of error is eight percentage points.

The full poll results can be viewed at: http://www.harrisdecima.ca

There are four weeks to go, and even one week can be a very long time in politics, as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson pointed out.

The Liberals have time to turn this campaign around and the Tories have plenty of time to stumble and fall but, for now, it’s looking good – for my side.