Syria Superthread [merged]

[Ostrozac]

Can somebody tell me what our (the West's) ultimate objectives are in Syria? 

Why are we there?  What do we have to achieve in terms of long term goals?

In broad strokes, we seem to want the same things that the Russians and Iranians do, for Assad to stay in power and the war to be over, with ISIS and other Sunni extremist groups disrupted or destroyed. We would just prefer that Assad tone down the atrocities a little bit.

We seem to have more problems with Assad's methods than his objectives. After all, no one is currently proposing to replace Assad as the power in charge of running Syria. (the last three groups that did express serious interest were ISIS, AQ, and the Muslim Brotherhood)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In a way I am thankfully the Assad regime survived, because the genocide the Islamist's would commit onto the regime supporters would shock the world. Sadly Assad and Syria had many chances to become the darlings of the West, but Syria has a long history of snatching problems from the jaws of peace and stability. Russia's goals are fairly small and concise and mostly achieved. The west dilemma is that they entered into the fight when the majority of the moderates were dead, fled or assimilated into the radicals. Now the West has to extract itself without to much loss of face, the other issue is the future of the Kurds. 

 

[Altair]

In a way I am thankfully the Assad regime survived, because the genocide the Islamist's would commit onto the regime supporters would shock the world. Sadly Assad and Syria had many chances to become the darlings of the West, but Syria has a long history of snatching problems from the jaws of peace and stability. Russia's goals are fairly small and concise and mostly achieved. The west dilemma is that they entered into the fight when the majority of the moderates were dead, fled or assimilated into the radicals. Now the West has to extract itself without to much loss of face, the other issue is the future of the Kurds.

The Kurds are screwed. Too many enemies.

Turkey,  NATO country.

Syria,  Russian supported.

Iraq,  Western supported.

That's too many.

 

[CBH99]

On the surface I would agree with you Altair, BUT...

1.  Turkey - Yes, a NATO country.  But not exactly the popular kid in the room.  Historically, it made sense to have Turkey as an ally.  Geographically close to multiple flashpoints, historically at odds with Russia. 

Turkey's President seems quite happy to shun NATO as a partner.  Mass detentions of anybody he wants, including judges, lawyers, teachers, students, soldiers, prosecutors, news reports, etc etc.  Now purchasing AA gear from Russia, and openly attacking groups that other Western countries support.  Not to mention, fairly extreme in his political views...don't think this is lost on NATO leadership.


2.  Russia - I don't think Russia cares that much.  If the Kurds can offer relative stability to the region, decent professionalism, no mass genocides, etc etc - it's preferable to the other groups.  Plus they know that on SOME LEVEL, they do enjoy the support of the West, albeit how much support seems to change frequently.


3.  Syria - Lots of it's own problems to deal with.  Attacking the Kurds, backed by the West, isn't going to do them any favours.  Assad's forces are stretched thin, and hunker down in the safety of Russian bases when not conducting operations.  For the near term, I think Assad is wise to pick his battles.


4.  Iraq - Very much a real problem, as there are a mountain of legal processes that would be required for a new country to be designated, along with borders, currency, government, etc etc.  And the Iraqi government, which legally controls the territory the Kurds want, absolutely will not be open to it.

Tricky situation.  We support Iraq.  We also support the Kurds.  Tricky situation for politicians, diplomats, UN bureaucrats, etc.


I would agree, the Kurds probably are screwed.  But make no mistake about it, Iraq doesn't want Turkish military forces deployed on it's soil any more than the Kurds do.  So it could ultimately make the Iraqi/Kurdish relationship TRUE frienemies in regards to Turkey.

 

[TQMS]

A few news updates pushed out at work by the Public Affairs Office.

Chemical weapons experts not in Douma, State Department says
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/17/middleeast/syria-chemical-attack-fallout-intl/index.html
(CNN, 17 April 18) (CNN)There was confusion Tuesday whether a team of international experts had arrived in the Syrian city of Douma to determine whether chemical weapons were used in an attack there 10 days ago

Coalition Ramps Up Strikes Amid Resurgence of ISIS Fighters in Syria
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/04/17/coalition-ramps-strikes-amid-resurgence-isis-fighters-syria.html
(Military.com, 17 April 18) White House and Pentagon officials have said that Islamic State fighters have been "on the run" for some months now. But military commanders on the ground are seeing new pockets of movement in a handful of areas in Syria, which has led to an uptick in coalition airstrikes, an official said Tuesday.

And a point on Turkey:
Turkey set to join NATO task force: Stoltenberg
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-set-to-join-nato-task-force-stoltenberg-130457
(Hurriyet, 17 April 18) Turkey will be responsible for NATO’s rapid response unit in a couple years, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Wasn't sure whether to put this here or in the WTF news.

CNN reporter literally sniffing a backpack for chemical weapons.

"there's definitely something that stings"

https://youtu.be/CgkI3Ub2lZw

 

[jollyjacktar]

:rofl: 

Who wants to be a Darwin winner!

 

[winnipegoo7]

For those interested, here is an open source look at some of the intelligence assets used during the cruise missile strike.

https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/digital-battlespace/insight-how-intel-assets-laid-groundwork-syria-st/

 

[Journeyman]

A good assessment of the strikes has been provided by the Georgetown Security Studies Review.

 

[tomahawk6]

Evidently France experienced some missile failure,there was a failure to launch. Embarassing. The air launched cruise missiles worked. just not the naval missiles.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/france-had-big-problems-firing-112400499.html

 

[Journeyman]

Evidently France experienced some missile failure,there was a failure to launch.

Yes, the article ends with:

But with all this talk of the U.S. plunging into a global conflict in Syria, we can’t help but think of how the French will respond to the end of the world: by taking a nap and then (maybe) firing ze missiles.

It’s either that or some missile tech aboard a French FREMM hit the mistook the “Surrender” button for “Launch” …

Not surprising that this is considered "journalism," while everything else not 'Fox & Friends' is "fake news"  :

 

[TQMS]

Tossed this in the China thread as well.

A little PAO info from this mornings email.

RUSSIA AND CHINA MILITARIES REACH ‘NEW HEIGHTS’ TOGETHER,  AGREE TO CHALLENGE U.S. IN MIDDLE EAST
http://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-military-reach-new-heights-together-agree-challenge-us-middle-899689
(Newsweek, 24 April 18) Russia and China have pledged to strengthen their bilateral military and political ties as part of a strategic cooperation that challenges U.S. interests, especially to Washington's stance on Middle East allies Syria and Iran.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Debated putting this one in a Russia thread, but as the battlespace is Syria, decided on here.

Article Link

Russia Widens EW War, ‘Disabling’ EC-130s OR AC-130s In Syria

The Compass Call is supposed to be one of America’s foremost electronic warfare weapons, but the EC-130s flying near Syria are being attacked and disabled “in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet,” the head of Special Operations Command said here today.

“Right now in Syria we are operating in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet from our adversaries. They are testing us everyday, knocking our communications down, disabling our EC-130s, etcetera,” Gen. Raymond Thomas told an audience of some 2,000 intelligence professionals.

While, for obvious reasons, we don’t know many details about the nature of the attacks on the EC-130s, we do know the Russians have done what one EW expert called a “good job” in several recent conflicts using EW. And the Russians are in force in Syria and provide most of the gear used by the Syrian military.

“The Russians have redone and reengineered their entire EW fleet in the last 20 years,” notes Laurie Moe Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who specializes in EW. After the Russians attacked Georgia, they concluded they needed to upgrade their EW capabilities, she says. “The Russians put in millions on upgrades after Georgia. They’ve ended up with killer capabilities, jamming in a multitude of frequencies for hundreds of kilometers.”

She also notes that the Russians may not have gone head to head against the EC-130s EW attack capabilities. They may have taken the much easier route of interfering with the Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) or their communications gear, making it more difficult to fly the aircraft since crews would have had to rely on maps, line of sight and other techniques.

“The problem the EC-130s have is that, while they are jamming, the crews aren’t doing much else,” making them more vulnerable to attacks, she says. “They could have gone after the PNT or the comms.” The Russians “know all of our vulnerabilities.”

There are other problems US forces must cope with, says Loren Thompson, a well known defense consultant: “We’ve spent so much time fighting enemies in Southwest Asia who were technically unsophisticated that we are not up to speed on tactical electronic warfare.” Buckhout said Thompson has a point.

 

[Altair]

Debated putting this one in a Russia thread, but as the battlespace is Syria, decided on here.

Article Link

Russia Widens EW War, ‘Disabling’ EC-130s OR AC-130s In Syria

The Compass Call is supposed to be one of America’s foremost electronic warfare weapons, but the EC-130s flying near Syria are being attacked and disabled “in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet,” the head of Special Operations Command said here today.

“Right now in Syria we are operating in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet from our adversaries. They are testing us everyday, knocking our communications down, disabling our EC-130s, etcetera,” Gen. Raymond Thomas told an audience of some 2,000 intelligence professionals.

While, for obvious reasons, we don’t know many details about the nature of the attacks on the EC-130s, we do know the Russians have done what one EW expert called a “good job” in several recent conflicts using EW. And the Russians are in force in Syria and provide most of the gear used by the Syrian military.

“The Russians have redone and reengineered their entire EW fleet in the last 20 years,” notes Laurie Moe Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who specializes in EW. After the Russians attacked Georgia, they concluded they needed to upgrade their EW capabilities, she says. “The Russians put in millions on upgrades after Georgia. They’ve ended up with killer capabilities, jamming in a multitude of frequencies for hundreds of kilometers.”

She also notes that the Russians may not have gone head to head against the EC-130s EW attack capabilities. They may have taken the much easier route of interfering with the Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) or their communications gear, making it more difficult to fly the aircraft since crews would have had to rely on maps, line of sight and other techniques.

“The problem the EC-130s have is that, while they are jamming, the crews aren’t doing much else,” making them more vulnerable to attacks, she says. “They could have gone after the PNT or the comms.” The Russians “know all of our vulnerabilities.”

There are other problems US forces must cope with, says Loren Thompson, a well known defense consultant: “We’ve spent so much time fighting enemies in Southwest Asia who were technically unsophisticated that we are not up to speed on tactical electronic warfare.” Buckhout said Thompson has a point.

Confirming what was being reported front the Ukrainian conflict.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

The Soviet Union may have collapsed, but the Russian military is conducting operations, successfully in many cases. 

 

[Jarnhamar]

Russia doesn't spend millions of dollars to build a few prototypes then dick around testing it for 5 years with lots of studies. They identify a need, find something then throw it into combat to test it.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Ever seen their newer arctic bases?  Massive.  Quite a bit more substantial than the ATC up in Resolute.

 

[TQMS]

Russia, after Netanyahu visit, backs off Syria S-300 missile supplies

https:/www.yahoo.com/news/russia-netanyahu-visit-backs-off-syria-300-missile-085144587.html
(Reuters, 11 May 18) Russia is not in talks with the Syrian government about supplying advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles and does not think they are needed, the Izvestia daily cited a top Kremlin aide as saying on Friday, in an apparent U-turn by Moscow.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Article Link

Syrian regime accidentally shoots down Russian military plane

A Russian maritime patrol aircraft with multiple personnel on board was inadvertently shot down by Syrian regime anti-aircraft artillery on Monday after the Syrians came under attack by Israeli missiles, according to a US official with knowledge of the incident.

The US official said the regime was actually trying to stop a barrage of Israeli missiles. A second official confirmed that Israel was responsible for the missile strikes on the Syrian regime.

The Russian state news agency TASS reported that a Russian IL-20 military aircraft with 14 personnel on board disappeared over the Mediterranean on Monday. According to TASS, the ministry of defense specified that "the mark of IL-20 went off the radars disappeared during the attack of four Israeli F-16 aircraft on Syrian targets in the province of Latakia."

The Israelis had fired multiple missiles against targets in the coastal area of Latakia where Russian has based much of its military presence, including aircraft. In an attempt to strike back against the Israelis, the Syrians launched extensive anti-aircraft fire, the official said and the Russian aircraft was hit.

The US found out about the incident because Syrian forces broadcast an emergency search and rescue radio call on an international frequency. The US then got a direct message from another country about the type of aircraft and circumstances of the incident. The official would not identify that country, but it is likely that Russia is the only nation that would know exactly what type of aircraft was shot down.

A spokesman for the Pentagon told CNN that the missiles were not fired by the US military but would not speak as to who was behind the strikes. An Israel Defense Forces spokesman declined to comment on the reports.

The aircraft was shot down by an anti-aircraft system the Russians sold to the Syrians several years ago, the official said. The Syrian air defense network in western Syria is very densely populated with anti-aircraft missile and radar systems.

In February, the two-man crew of an Israeli F-16 ejected from their aircraft when a missile exploded near them, damaging their aircraft as they finished conducting a mission against Syrian forces.

An Israeli defense official told CNN earlier this month that Israel has struck Syria 200 times in the past 18 months to prevent the deployment of Iranian weapons in the region.

 

[CBH99]

Israel might have been successful in persuading the Russians not to provide any additional S-300 systems to Syria.  If there was any persuasion still needed, I think the Syrians just finished tying the bow.