Syria Superthread [merged]

[Edward Campbell]

The responses, to be effective, need to be punitive, not focused on the warriors.

These folks 

  were, I suppose, "innocent civilians" and the raid on Dresden was, purely and simply, punitive, retaliation for the buzz bombs and V-2s. The justification rationale for the bombing was well grounded in a principle of war: Maintenance of Morale; British morale was suffering in 1944/45 from the second blitz and Dresden was designed to raise spirits (amongst civilians and soldiers whose families were being bombed, yet again) by punishing the Germans ... and, the historical records suggests, it did just that.

 

[George Wallace]

I am not sure I would agree that your "punitive" would be effective on this form of barbaric ideology.  Death is their solution, including their own.  Everything about their outlook on this 'jihad' leads to death.  Unless all the heads of this 'hydra' are severed from the body, they will only spread their poisonous barbaric philosophy towards non-believers.

 

[Jungle]

I think the West needs to confront IS directly. We need to find each member of it and kill them, then publish pictures like those above, but of IS bodies. We need to avoid civilian casualties, as the animals do not care about their people's lives but will exploit them to advance their cause and attract recruits.

This is the second part of the Long War, which was appropriately named a decade ago. It is a generational struggle that will eventually see one side impose its will on the other.

William Stevenson wrote, in his 1976 book, Codename: Intrepid (free translation):

Do Democraties have the will to survive[size=12pt]?

Our mistake, before 1939, consisted in neglecting to ask this question. None of the democraties had seriously considered the dangers that threatened them. They refused to unite, arm, to sacrifice anything to their collective or individual security. Some estimated that the danger was not grave enough. Today, I hear the same talk.

We will eventually need boots on the ground. It will hurt, and it will get ugly. But if we wait until they confront us here, our populations will never forgive us. We are, once again, damned if we do, and damned if we don't...

 

[George Wallace]

I agree with Jungle on this.  Western Democracies are going to have to get tough, unite, and terminate with extreme prejudice ALL those that hold the beliefs and spread the beliefs of those barbarians.  As has been witnessed, they do not value human life, and are not afraid to massacre the innocent.  Our using massive 'punitive' bombardment of civilian populations will only further their cause.  We can already see the use of innocents as human shields in Gaza as an example of how that tactic would work.  If indeed the SAS is venturing into Syria and Iraq to apprehend the murderers of James Foley, it is only a small step.  A much larger operation would be necessary to rid the world of these barbarians.


As Jungle amply put it: "damned if we do and damned if we don't". 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Jungle: I don't disagree. In fact, I know so little about asymmetrical warfare that I'm very hesitant to express any opinion at all.

But ...

    1. I am pretty sure that the political will to conduct the kind of campaign I think you advocate will be ephemeral, at best, maybe existent for a few weeks, months after an especially horrible attack on America,
        Australia, Britain or Canada; and

      2. I'm not sure, but you will know better than I, that we have the "horses," for it - enough expendable special forces to conduct 'find and kill' missions for years and years and years.

Meanwhile, of course, what does Israel do? Are its current (punitive) tactics working? Is Hamas getting weaker or stronger? Are there lessons for us?

 

[GR66]

I agree that we must make every effort to avoid having many "boots on the ground" in this fight.  They hate us...but they also have their neighbours just as much if not more.  If we don't make ourselves the main target by having a major presence in their back yard then their attacks on our homeland will likely continue to be a secondary effort.  It's easier for them fight the masses of heretics living among themselves than to attack infidels half a world away. 

It will also be easier for the fanatics to mobilize support among the general population if they can point to us as "crusaders" invading their homeland.  Instead let the fanatics try to mobilize them against the person they know next door.  The way to win this is to get the average Arab to turn on the fanatics within their own culture.  The average Arab likely won't be swayed much against the fanatics because they see bombs going off in the distant homeland of an invading army.  They may however turn on the fanatics that hang and gut their local shop keeper because he's from a different sect...or because they force genital mutilation on their little sister...or chop the head off your cousin because his beard wasn't long enough, etc.

Let them have their bloody 100-Years war among themselves and learn the hard way that it's not worth the price in blood they will pay for it.  Spank them hard whenever they try to move the fight outside themselves.  But don't make it easy for them by putting ourselves in the middle of it.

My  :2c:

 

[GAP]

Hmmm.....the Pheonix Program ran for a good long while.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Program

 

[George Wallace]

Good points GR66, but as it stands now, it is the "armed" barbarians slaughtering the "unarmed sheep" in the Region.  Even if we stand off and keep them restricted to the Region; attempting to stop any migration of their objectives outside of the Region, we will eventually have to face them as the only ideological presence in the Region who will then attempt to migrate into our spheres of influence.  We will have to face them someday.

 

[Jungle]

1. I am pretty sure that the political will to conduct the kind of campaign I think you advocate will be ephemeral, at best, maybe existent for a few weeks, months after an especially horrible attack on America, Australia, Britain or Canada; and

Exactly... this refers to William Stevenson's quote in my previous post.

2. I'm not sure, but you will know better than I, that we have the "horses," for it - enough expendable special forces to conduct 'find and kill' missions for years and years and years.

SOF will be a tool in the box, useful to target IS leaders and other HVTs; however there will be a need for conventional Troops to conduct cordon & search, clear and block ops, and to destroy trg sites and large IS groupings.

Meanwhile, of course, what does Israel do? Are its current (punitive) tactics working? Is Hamas getting weaker or stronger? Are there lessons for us?

I don't know... Will hamas unite with IS ? What effect would this have on the Israeli situation ? Will IS be more successful than AQ in rallying muslims to their cause ? It appears that the more brutal the organization, the more people they attract. There are probably more westerners then ever conducting jihad... maybe we can wait and see how the ME situation works out, but if Israel becomes in serious danger, it will need to be rescued.

Regardless of how we approach this, it will eventually become very expensive in resources. In all of them...

 

[tomahawk6]

Foley's killer has been identified as Abdel-Majed Abdel Bary.

http://nypost.com/2014/08/23/british-rapper-a-suspect-in-journalists-beheading-by-isis/

 

[Transporter]

Foley's killer has been identified as Abdel-Majed Abdel Bary.

http://nypost.com/2014/08/23/british-rapper-a-suspect-in-journalists-beheading-by-isis/

Might very well have been him, but I believe at this point all news sources are identifying him as a suspect, with nothing confirmed.

 

[GR66]

Good points GR66, but as it stands now, it is the "armed" barbarians slaughtering the "unarmed sheep" in the Region.  Even if we stand off and keep them restricted to the Region; attempting to stop any migration of their objectives outside of the Region, we will eventually have to face them as the only ideological presence in the Region who will then attempt to migrate into our spheres of influence.  We will have to face them someday.

Yes they are the wolves among the sheep at the moment.  However maybe enough sheep need to be slaughtered (unfortunately) for them to turn their backs on the wolves who are trying to lead them.

 

[tomahawk6]

Peter Curtis was released to US officials on the Golan Heights.Great news !!

http://news.yahoo.com/us-says-american-held-syria-freed-184009076--politics.html

 

[tomahawk6]

Tabqa airbase fell to jihadists after heavy fighting.Not good for Assad.

http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-retreats-north-syrias-homs-monitor-114213356.html;_ylt=A0LEV1liTvpTcAgAQfJXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzNzl2cjkzBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDUwMl8x

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Islamic State militants stormed an air base in northeast Syria on Sunday, capturing it from government forces after days of fighting that cost more than 500 lives, a monitoring group said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 346 Islamic State fighters were killed and more than 170 members of government forces had died since Tuesday in the fight over Tabqa base, making it one of the deadliest confrontations between the two groups since the start of Syria's war

 

[Transporter]

Peter Curtis was released to US officials on the Golan Heights.Great news !!

http://news.yahoo.com/us-says-american-held-syria-freed-184009076--politics.html

He was released to UN peacekeepers (likely UNDOF or potentially UNTSO), and then handed over to US officials.

 

[a_majoor]

Tabqa airbase fell to jihadists after heavy fighting.Not good for Assad.

http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-retreats-north-syrias-homs-monitor-114213356.html;_ylt=A0LEV1liTvpTcAgAQfJXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzNzl2cjkzBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDUwMl8x

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Islamic State militants stormed an air base in northeast Syria on Sunday, capturing it from government forces after days of fighting that cost more than 500 lives, a monitoring group said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 346 Islamic State fighters were killed and more than 170 members of government forces had died since Tuesday in the fight over Tabqa base, making it one of the deadliest confrontations between the two groups since the start of Syria's war

Since this is one of the conduits for Iranian aid to Syria, you can expect some sort of response, either a large scale offensive by the Syrians themselves, or planned and possibly bolstered by the Iranians and Hezbollah fighters (Iranian commanders providing the planing and possibly heavy or sophisticated support weapons and equipment).

So long as the US and the West keeps a relatively hands off approach now and leaves most of the fighting to the Iranians and their proxies, then the problem of ISIS can be contained with little cost to us, but a great deal of cost to our enemies.

 

[Infantryman2b]

https://news.vice.com/article/islamic-state-captures-syrian-air-force-base?utm_source=vicenewsfb

More on the fall of the airbase. Video is graphic.

 

[CougarKing]

The Assad regime offers to be a US/western ally against ISIS. How credible will Obama sound to the US public if he decides to take their help, considering all the sabre rattling for air strikes made by his administration against Assad last year? Back then, ultimately no strikes ever happened even if Syria decided to give up its chemical weapons.

BBC

Syria will help US fight terrorism, says Walid Muallem

Syria's foreign minister has offered to help the US fight the Islamic State (IS) militant group, which has seized swathes of land in Iraq and Syria.

Walid Muallem said Syria was "the centre of the international coalition to fight Islamic State".

The US has already bombed IS fighters in Iraq and has hinted it would be willing to take action in Syria.

Western powers generally shun Syria's government, accusing it of carrying out atrocities in its three-year civil war.

(...EDITED)

 

[YZT580]

So now ISIS has an air force, albeit one consisting of very old aircraft: 12 squadrons of Mig21s.  That combined with the tanks, transports and heavy artillery taken from the Iraqis and their 70000 odd adherents including several thousand with either European or North American passports makes them and extremely dangerous and highly mobile force, especially since many of them really don't care if they die or not.  It is easy to make jokes and suggest that we have the armaments to facilitate their requests but anyone who recalls the kamikaze attacks by the Japanese will attest that it is a terrifying moment when you realize that unless they run out of people first, you are going to run out of bullets and when that happens....?  I sadly suspect that tasking orders may not be too far in the future.

 

[Transporter]

So now ISIS has an air force, albeit one consisting of very old aircraft: 12 squadrons of Mig21s.  That combined with the tanks, transports and heavy artillery taken from the Iraqis and their 70000 odd adherents including several thousand with either European or North American passports makes them and extremely dangerous and highly mobile force, especially since many of them really don't care if they die or not.  It is easy to make jokes and suggest that we have the armaments to facilitate their requests but anyone who recalls the kamikaze attacks by the Japanese will attest that it is a terrifying moment when you realize that unless they run out of people first, you are going to run out of bullets and when that happens....?  I sadly suspect that tasking orders may not be too far in the future.

Not to downplay the threat, but I thought I read elsewhere that all flyable aircraft departed before the air base was seized. Judging by the photos of the remaining aircraft, I'm not too sure we have to worry about them getting airborne anytime soon.

Interesting times ahead perhaps.

Where's good ole Saddam when we need him... oh wait.