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Syria Superthread [merged]

S.M.A. said:
K.T. McFarland at Fox News is saying Vladimir Putin deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.  ;D

Sigh...

If you don't think Putin has more of a voice of reason, then review this presentation on The Blaze by Glenn Beck and tell us what you think:  http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/warning-graphic-video-of-syrian-rebels-on-glenn-becks-the-blaze/

In my opinion, neither side deserves our support.  They both are diametrically opposite to our Western values.
 
George Wallace said:
If you don't think Putin has more of a voice of reason, then review this presentation on The Blaze by Glenn Beck and tell us what you think:  http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/warning-graphic-video-of-syrian-rebels-on-glenn-becks-the-blaze/

In my opinion, neither side deserves our support.  They both are diametrically opposite to our Western values.

I don't have a problem with what he said. I have a problem with who is saying it though. That's why ERC sarcastically said:

E.R. Campbell said:
So Vladimir Putin is, all of a sudden, the voice of "reason" and "moderation" in this mess?

Can Putin really be believed he was "working in the interest of peace" considering he was one of those in charge when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008?
Syria is Russia's ally/client state, as we all know.

While this unprecedented diplomatic initiative started by Russia calling for Syria to give up its chem. weapons stockpiles seems great, there is no reasonable way for Syria to ever meet (to US, never mind international coalition/UN) standards and prove that they turned over every shell, every rocket that could be delivered.

Why do I say that? Think about this report below...is Assad really in control of all his military units supposedly loyal to him?

Report Claims Syrian Troops Used Chemical Weapons Without Assad’s Approval

Government forces in Syria may have launched the chemical weapons attack that reportedly killed more than a thousand civilians last month before receiving a go-ahead from President Bashar Assad.

According to an article published on Sunday in the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, a German spy ship intercepted repeated communications from forces loyal to Assad asking for permission to use chemical weapons; however, their requests were consistently denied.

.........

TIME link
 
sean m said:
It seems that the argument for those Americans, including the President, who want a strike is that if the West does not act that allowing Assad to use chemical weapons wil set a precedent for usage of chemical weapons in the future, ...does anyone here believe that?

Sure. Put me down for that.
IMHO if you're contemplating gassing your citizens or neighbors you'd think twice if "the West" would knock out some of your regime assets. Oh, that might play up nicely for you on Al Jezeera or some other media outlets but chances are you've already mobilized anti-Western PR as best you can. You're in a tight spot so it comes down to what helps the insurgents more: you limiting yourself to conventional arms, or the US bombing you.
Now having said that, I don't think US intervention or anything can be a universally effective deterrent; dictators might still mull it over and go ahead with chemical weapons anyway.

sean m said:
It seems that the argument for those Americans, including the President, who want a strike is that if the West does not act that ... American interests around the world could be the recipients of such an attack, does anyone here believe that?

IMHO not buying into that so much. 
While the argument re proliferation says promoting their utility / value generally raises the chance that a nation like the US will confront a chemical arsenal, I think the implication is that the US is more likely to face chemical weapons in the hands of terrorists if it doesn't punish Assad.  But I just don't think terrorists will constrain themselves out of fear of retaliation against their operatives, training camps or host governments.
 
cupper said:
Apparently he just want's to recap what has been in the news for the last few days.

Blah, Blah, Blah.


A real recap of, depending on your view point, a highly flexible Foreign Policy in action, or an incoherent fly by the seat of your pants amateur hour of Foreign Policy  in action.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clcl0VZhl24

 
Haletown said:
A real recap of, depending on your view point, a highly flexible Foreign Policy in action, or an incoherent fly by the seat of your pants amateur hour of Foreign Policy  in action.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clcl0VZhl24
Total amateurs.  He's more interested in keeping himself in power.  He has absolutely no idea how to govern.  For example, you don't make an announcement from the Rose Garden, your Vice standing at your side, and then go golfing.  Instead, you retreat for more briefings, updates, engage foreign powers, etc.  This guy is a sham and Putin is, pardon the game-speak, pwning him.
 
S.M.A. said:
Can Putin really be believed he was "working in the interest of peace" considering he was one of those in charge when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008?
Syria is Russia's ally/client state, as we all know.
Yes, and Putin was miffed when the west went into Kosovo contrary to his publically-stated objections.  So when he subsequently went into Georgia, I suspect it was both with a payback attitude, plus one of showing the value of a US "security guarantee"..... knowing full-well that the Americans (and the west) were too bogged down in Iraq/Afghanistan to do anything except wring their hands on Face the Nation.

As for this all being a brilliantly thought-out Machiavelli moment by Putin/Assad?  Nahh, neither has shown the capability of thinking this many iterations on.  They're merely exploiting Obama's foot-in-mouth and the idealists' cries of "something must be done" to their advantage.
 
This link ( a little dated ) from January 3, 2013 by By Basel Dayoub, al Akhbar - December 19, 2012:  http://gerarddirect.com/2013/01/03/6874/

Al-Qaeda Rebels Abuse and Murder Syrian Christians

This is news from as early as twelve months ago.  The West has known this and said nothing.  What is Obama thinking in throwing his support behind these people? 
 
Putin makes a plea for caution in a NY Times OP-ED.

A Plea for Caution From Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?hpw&_r=0

MOSCOW — RECENT events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.

Relations between us have passed through different stages. We stood against each other during the cold war. But we were also allies once, and defeated the Nazis together. The universal international organization — the United Nations — was then established to prevent such devastation from ever happening again.

The United Nations’ founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America’s consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

No one wants the United Nations to suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which collapsed because it lacked real leverage. This is possible if influential countries bypass the United Nations and take military action without Security Council authorization.

The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders. A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. It could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilize the Middle East and North Africa. It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.

Syria is not witnessing a battle for democracy, but an armed conflict between government and opposition in a multireligious country. There are few champions of democracy in Syria. But there are more than enough Qaeda fighters and extremists of all stripes battling the government. The United States State Department has designated Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, fighting with the opposition, as terrorist organizations. This internal conflict, fueled by foreign weapons supplied to the opposition, is one of the bloodiest in the world.

Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience acquired in Syria? After all, after fighting in Libya, extremists moved on to Mali. This threatens us all.

From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their own future. We are not protecting the Syrian government, but international law. We need to use the United Nations Security Council and believe that preserving law and order in today’s complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding into chaos. The law is still the law, and we must follow it whether we like it or not. Under current international law, force is permitted only in self-defense or by the decision of the Security Council. Anything else is unacceptable under the United Nations Charter and would constitute an act of aggression.

No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.

It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America’s long-term interest? I doubt it. Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan “you’re either with us or against us.”

But force has proved ineffective and pointless. Afghanistan is reeling, and no one can say what will happen after international forces withdraw. Libya is divided into tribes and clans. In Iraq the civil war continues, with dozens killed each day. In the United States, many draw an analogy between Iraq and Syria, and ask why their government would want to repeat recent mistakes.

No matter how targeted the strikes or how sophisticated the weapons, civilian casualties are inevitable, including the elderly and children, whom the strikes are meant to protect.

The world reacts by asking: if you cannot count on international law, then you must find other ways to ensure your security. Thus a growing number of countries seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction. This is logical: if you have the bomb, no one will touch you. We are left with talk of the need to strengthen nonproliferation, when in reality this is being eroded.

We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement.

A new opportunity to avoid military action has emerged in the past few days. The United States, Russia and all members of the international community must take advantage of the Syrian government’s willingness to place its chemical arsenal under international control for subsequent destruction. Judging by the statements of President Obama, the United States sees this as an alternative to military action.

I welcome the president’s interest in continuing the dialogue with Russia on Syria. We must work together to keep this hope alive, as we agreed to at the Group of 8 meeting in Lough Erne in Northern Ireland in June, and steer the discussion back toward negotiations.

If we can avoid force against Syria, this will improve the atmosphere in international affairs and strengthen mutual trust. It will be our shared success and open the door to cooperation on other critical issues.

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

Vladimir V. Putin is the president of Russia.

 
I wonder if such action would be an air strike? Or perhaps something like the 1976 Entebbe Operation with boots on the ground, considering that experts advised against bombing chemical weapons sites since it might cause an accidental nerve gas release to the local population?

Israel Says Will Act If WMDs Transferred To Hezbollah

Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon hinted in speeches given in recent days that Israel has red lines, but declined to elaborate. Now, given the international community’s efforts to dismantle the non-conventional weapons Assad has collected, Jerusalem emphasized that Israel reserved the right to respond to any attempt to arm Hezbollah with weapons of the sort. According to foreign reports, the IDF carried out operations in Syria several times, hitting shipments of weapons that could have been transferred to the Lebanese terrorist organization and endanger Israel.

Jerusalem views events on the Syrian front with a discerning eye and cautious optimism, as it also does when considering the attitude of the US towards Iran. “We must see what happens in the end,” said an Israeli official, “but it is clear our stance is that a loaded gun must be placed on the table in the form of a real military threat, and this is the appropriate position to take. Once Assad and the Russians realized that the United States was serious, they led the diplomatic process. This policy holds true for Iran’s future as well.”

Even President Shimon Peres said that he believed the current diplomatic efforts to be a better option than a military attack, provided that they lead to the dismantling of chemical weapons Syria.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a jab at US President Barack Obama in comments he made on Wednesday night, emphasizing his position that Israel cannot trust anyone on security issues.


To naval officers at a graduation ceremony in Haifa, Netanyahu said, “These days, perhaps more than ever, the main rule that guides me in my actions as prime minister and on which I am very particular, is: If I am not for myself, who will be? If we are not for ourselves, who will be? We are for ourselves.” Hours later, Ya’alon re-emphasized the same principle, during a ceremony at the Latrun Armored Corps Memorial, “In the fog that covers theMiddle East, we must understand that we need to rely only on ourselves.”

link
 
I have been a pretty clear opponent of any intervention in Syria but I have posted several articles by people I respect who take the opposite view. But I remain opposed and now my view is confirmed for me because two people I think grossly misunderstand foreign policy, former Canadian Ambassadir to the UN (and minister in Jean Chrétien's cabinet) and former Canadian foreign minister (also in Chrétien's government) Lloyd Axworthy, have taken a stand for intervention which, in my opinion is wrong on every count. Here is their case, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Centre for International Policy Studies website:

http://cips.uottawa.ca/syrians-suffer-our-collective-failure/
CIPS-logo2.png

Syrians Suffer ‘Our’ Collective Failure

Posted on September 10, 2013 by Allan Rock

By Allan Rock and Lloyd Axworthy

Published in the Globe and Mail, September 10, 2013

Almost a month has passed since the world learned that chemical weapons were used against the Syrian people. Apart from florid rhetoric, there still has been no response. No consequences for the monstrous regime. No act of global denunciation. More importantly, nothing to deter a further attack.

This is just the most recent example of “our” collective failure to respond to the tragedy unfolding in Syria. And since “we” respond through political leaders and multilateral institutions, how have they been performing?

The catastrophe in Syria these past two years has shone an unflattering light on an international cast of characters who have been tested by the crisis and found wanting. The main villains, of course, are the murderous Bashar al-Assad, his callous sponsor Russia and the shamefully complicit China. But there is more than enough blame to go around. Sadly, some of it must be assigned to the very institutions – and some of the international leaders – on whom “we” counted for help.

Start with the United Nations, where a dysfunctional Security Council has shown once again that major reform is long overdue. Its five permanent members (“the P5”) earned their special seats by winning the Second World War. But that was nearly 70 years ago, and judging by the changes in the distribution of global influence, the interval might as well be 1,000 years. The exclusion of major players such as India, Brazil and South Africa has diminished the Security Council’s legitimacy, and its secretive methods have undermined its credibility. But the council’s most damning defect is the P5 veto, by which any one of these countries can shut down the most powerful international body for even the most self-serving or immoral reasons. Is that any way to run the world?

The UN’s shortcomings in the Syrian crisis do not end there. In late August, the UN dispatched an inspection team with a mandate to determine whether chemical gas was used, but not to investigate who was responsible. The inspectors’ work will take weeks to complete, delaying any possible response. Meanwhile, Syria’s neighbours face a refugee crisis of massive proportions that is worsening by the day. The UN refugee agency still has no coherent response for a problem everyone saw coming.

Nor does the UN Secretary-General escape responsibility for the current state of affairs. These past six years, Ban Ki-moon has been an outspoken advocate for the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), the doctrine unanimously adopted by UN member states in 2005 to deal with cases where states, such as Syria, engage in the mass murder of their own populations.

But his recent statements fail to reflect the underlying principle of R2P: namely that when such crimes are committed, the international community must respond, with force if necessary, to protect these populations. The P5 veto shutting down the Security Council needn’t be the last word – the Canadian-sponsored commission that recommended R2P envisaged a number of creative alternatives, including initiatives in the General Assembly or action by a coalition of concerned governments. Rather than energetically exploring these avenues, the Secretary-General has chosen to wring his hands and leave the immense moral authority of his office untapped.

The list of those who have let down the Syrian people continues to lengthen. The G20 ended its meeting last week in disarray, unable to form a unified front even against a tyrant prepared to murder his people by the most appalling means. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron appears to have been denied the parliamentary mandate for which he advocated so eloquently simply because he did not effectively whip the vote. To think of so noble a cause foundering for so banal a reason adds a note of farce to the tragedy.

And then there is U.S. President Barack Obama, whose now legendary caution has begun to look more like chronic indecision, and whose deferral to Congress now feels more like political gamesmanship than respect for the Constitution. Mr. Obama’s gambit may yet end with a triumphant vote of confidence on Capitol Hill, but the chance he is taking by going that route puts at grave risk the one remaining hope that Syrian civilians have for meaningful intervention to deter Mr. Assad from using chemical gas again.

And while all this has been going on, many opinion leaders have argued against intervention. Abhorring war, preferring diplomacy and hoping for a negotiated solution, they seem unaware that such a possibility has never been more remote. Although time is of the essence, they implore us to wait, ignoring the fact that “military intervention” is already happening, in the form of weapons and material shipped in abundance to Mr. Assad by Russia.

Our own government has laudably supported intervention, recognizing (as Prime Minister Stephen Harper said last week) that leaving Mr. Assad’s war crimes unanswered establishes a precedent that will haunt the world for generations. Canada has also led the way in humanitarian funding, although it would be good to see us assume the leadership role for which we are so well qualified, making sure that the money is used quickly, and where it can do the most good.

When the history of the Syrian war is written, it will chronicle massive suffering that the world allowed to go on for far too long. Sadly, the credibility of our lofty collective ideals and the institutions we created to promote them may be among its victims.


Messers Axworthy and Rock give us no idea of what might constitute "meaningful intervention to deter Mr. Assad" nor about how prime Minister Harper might make sure "that the [aid] money is used quickly, and where it can do the most good." Instead they offer vague criticisms and platitudes.
 
I find it ironic that a bunch of hippies in the US, who voted for Obama, woke up one morning and found themselves in favour of military action...  ;D
 
Technoviking said:
Total amateurs.  He's more interested in keeping himself in power.  He has absolutely no idea how to govern.  For example, you don't make an announcement from the Rose Garden, your Vice standing at your side, and then go golfing.  Instead, you retreat for more briefings, updates, engage foreign powers, etc.  This guy is a sham and Putin is, pardon the game-speak, pwning him.

A junior senator from Illinois who had in effect zero foreign policy experience. His VP is a joke and I am not enamoured with his SecState either. I can hear the crickets start to tune up waiting for the missiles to fly... :facepalm:
 
Jungle said:
I find it ironic that a bunch of hippies in the US, who voted for Obama, woke up one morning and found themselves in favour of military action...  ;D

 
Welp, so much for peace.. Please bring out the drums again!

Assad sets conditions in exchange to give up chemical weapons -


Link
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-12/assad-lays-down-his-conditions-deal-depends-us-stopping-aid-terrorists


Assad Lays Down His Conditions: "US Must Stop Aiding Terrorists", Israel Disposing Of WMDs; Accuses Saudi, Qatar And Turkey


Assad Lays Down His Conditions:

It was only a matter of time before Syria's Assad, emboldened by Obama's recent backtracking and confident he has all the leverage and momentum, started laying down his own conditions. And here they are, as per RIA and Interfax citing an interview with Assad to air in its entirety later today on Rossia 24 TV:

ASSAD CALLS FOR ISRAEL TO DISPOSE OF WMD (!)
ASSAD: 'REBELS MAY USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST ISRAEL AS PROVOCATION'
ASSAD SAYS CHEMCIAL ARMS DEAL DEPENDS ON US STOPPING AID TO TERRORISTS
ASSAD SAYS WILL COMPLETE DEAL ONLY IF US STOPS "POLICY OF THREATS"
ASSAD ACCUSES TURKEY, SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR OF SUPPORTING TERRORISTS IN SYRIA
ASSAD EXPECTS TO START HANDING OVER INFO ON CHEMICAL WEAPONS ONE MONTH AFTER JOINING OPCW
ASSAD: 'ANY WAR AGAINST SYRIA WILL BECOME A WAR THAT WILL DESTROY THE WHOLE REGION'
ASSAD: 'NO COUNTRY IN THE MIDDLE EAST, PRIMARILY ISRAEL, SHOULD HAVE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION'
SYRIA TO SEND DOCUMENTS TO UN, CHEMICAL WEAPONS GROUP SOON
ASSAD SAYS IMPLEMENTATION OF DEAL MAY TAKE A MONTH OR MORE
If at all. And now, his bluff called, we go back to Barack Obama penning his Pravda Op-Ed.
 
Probably not as severe as the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade more than a decade ago during the Operation Allied Force air campaign against Serbia.

Syrian Rebels Attack Chinese Diplomats, Embassy

In an interview with the Global Times, Zhang Xun, China's ambassador to Syria said that Beijing’s embassy in Damascus has increasingly been caught in the cross-hairs of fighting between rebel and government forces in recent months.

In one notable instance, shrapnel and shell fragments from a mortar attack deflected off a nearby building and landed inside the Chinese embassy.

“A shell hit the ceiling of a building some 60 meters away and the fragments bounced into our building,” Zhang told reporters from the Global Times, showing them the actual shells, which he kept in an envelope in his office.

(...)

source: thediplomat.com
 
For a country that said they won't get military involved...that's a lot of firepower they're moving close to Syria.

Russia to expand Mediterranean fleet to 10 warships – Navy chief


RT link


The Russian Navy intends to build its presence in the Mediterranean Sea - particularly in the area close to Syrian shores - to up to 10 battleships, announced Admiral of the Fleet Viktor Chirkov.

“The task is crystal clear: to avoid a slightest threat to the security of the state. This is a general practice of all fleets around the world, to be there when a tension level increases. They are all going to act on operational command plan of the offshore maritime zone,” Chirkov told journalists on Friday. "Russia will be building up its Mediterranean fleet until it is deemed sufficient to perform the task set."

Russia began military build-up in the Mediterranean in 2012, and starting from December last year the Navy established a constant presence in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.

On May 1, 2013 all Russian battleships operating in the area were assigned to a single task force under special offshore maritime zone operation command.

Currently there are seven warships deployed in the area: landing craft carriers 'Aleksandr Shabalin’, ‘Admiral Nevelskoy’, ‘Peresvet’, ‘Novocherkassk’ and ‘Minsk’ from Russia’s Black and Baltic Sea Fleets, as well as the escort vessel ‘Neustrashimy’, and large anti-submarine ship ‘Admiral Panteleyev’.


(...)
 
myself.only said:
A target rich environment

Tripwires?

I do not trust what Russians do. They know that whatever forces they put in the theatre can only have minimal effects as they can not be for deterrence, and this is a lot of resources apparently wasted.
 
AliG said:
Tripwires?

I do not trust what Russians do. They know that whatever forces they put in the theatre can only have minimal effects as they can not be for deterrence, and this is a lot of resources apparently wasted.
"Tripwires," in the hopes that this is the one big moment to spark WW3?  Really?
"Deterrence," with the presence of only one large frigate?
"Resources apparently wasted"?  Navies are used habitually to "signal" government thinking; in this case, I suggest their mere presence shows "Russia is interested."

Look at the composition of the forces deployed.  The majority of the vessels are landing craft carriers -- ships designed to move 'stuff' to/from shore.  Now they could be filled with Naval Infantry just aching to do 'the shores of Tripoli' thing.  Or they could be empty and waiting to evacuate people/stuff should things turn ugly for Russian nationals ashore.


Or the Russians could be cunning dogs, using the Med as a mere staging area for the assault on Lethbridge!  :o
 
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