Syria Superthread [merged]

[Edward Campbell]

David Parkins, in the Globe and Mail, is almost certainly correct, but that is still neither legal nor strategic justification for intervening in a perfectly nice little civil war:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/damage-claim/article13538502/#dashboard/follows/

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail

 

[sean m]

Interesting article from the Long War Journal.

"A few more questions before we start bombing Syria"

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2013/08/a_few_more_questions_before_we.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LongWarJournalSiteWide+%28The+Long+War+Journal+%28Site-Wide%29%29

 

[sean m]

From CBC news,

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/news/story/2013/08/27/syria-war-clouds-gather.html

It seems to state that minister Baird is not ruling out any possible action against Assad.

In regards to the post about the possible oil deal between the saudis and russians. Would it be too much to ask if people here thouth that there shouls be  similar deal with the iranians and gulf states despite their uneasy relations with each other?

 

[muskrat89]

What an odd reversal of politics. Most on the right want us to stay out of it; this President seems to be intent on acting unilaterally and bypassing Congress to get into a war without a plan - all the things he campaigned against Bush about.

 

[OldSolduer]

I haven't seen any evidence that Syria used chemical weapons. Yep, we've seen videos of sick people but who is to say what made them sick?

All I have heard is rhetoric and drum beating from the White House.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I haven't seen any evidence that Syria used chemical weapons. Yep, we've seen videos of sick people but who is to say what made them sick?

All I have heard is rhetoric and drum beating from the White House.

He needs something to deflect the problems he's having at home.

Remember the movie 'Wag the Dog'?

It's not about a sex scandal though. It's the debt, his dysfunctional government and a dozen other things.

 

[OldSolduer]

He needs something to deflect the problems he's having at home.

Remember the movie 'Wag the Dog'?

It's not about a sex scandal though. It's the debt, his dysfunctional government and a dozen other things.

I understand that, thanks though for pointing that out.

Nothing good can come of any intervention by Western powers, IMO.

 

[BurnDoctor]

Agree with Jim and all that have echoed that sentiment. Ugly though this may be, it is a Syrian problem, and it begs a Syrian solution....ugly though that will be.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The media is awash, this morning, with suggestions that a forthcoming attack on Syria is not about anything like "regime change,' it is all about "sending a message" saying that chemical weapons are a no-no.

I agree it is about messaging, but the messages being sent are:

    1. From Washington ~ President Obama is not a wimp; and

         

    2. From Ottawa ~ this, running a country, is serious business, maybe even requiring th prime minister to send the CF into harm's way. Do you really want the "Prince of Pot" making those tough decisions?

         

 

[The Bread Guy]

Tidbit from the British PM's Twitter feed:

UK to put fwrd resolution authorising all necessary measures under Ch7 of UN Charter to protect civilians from #chemicalweapons in #Syria

 

[The Bread Guy]

I haven't seen any evidence that Syria used chemical weapons. Yep, we've seen videos of sick people but who is to say what made them sick?

Point:  "Intercepted Calls Prove Syrian Army Used Nerve Gas, U.S. Spies Say" (Syrians fired the stuff, but was it one unit doing its own thing, or regime ordered?)
(Potential?) counterpoint:  ".... seven suspected individuals from the al-Qaeda-linked Al Nusrah Front were captured in antiterrorist operations in Adana, Turkey, and two kilos (4,5 pounds) of sarin gas were found in their apartments. According to the accompanying reports, they were planning attacks on the Incirlik Base in Adana and in Gaziantep, a city near Turkey’s border with Syria ...."http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/Archives/GSW/201307/Turkey_02.html (Were AQ really going to use it on the base, or maybe bringing it into Syria to make it look like Syria was using it, causing the West to jump in on the side of the anti-Syria folks?)

Wilderness of mirrors ....

 

[CougarKing]

Notable updates:

Arab League Rejects Attack Against Syria

CAIRO — The leaders of the Arab world on Tuesday blamed the Syrian government for a chemical weapons attack that killed hundreds of people last week, but declined to back a retaliatory military strike, denying the United States the kind of broad regional support that U.S. governments have generally sought for interventions in the Middle East.

While the Obama administration has robust European backing and quiet Arab support for a strike on Syria, the position of the Arab League and the inability to win a U.N. mandate complicates the legal and diplomatic case for the White House. The Obama administration has yet to make clear if it has any intelligence linking the Syrian government to the use of chemical weapons, though the White House said there was “no doubt” that had occurred.

......

Boston Globe

And Israel readies for Syrian retaliation:

Israel deploys full missile defences against Syria

Quote:

Aug 28 (Reuters) - Israel is deploying all of its missile defences as a precaution against possible Syrian retaliatory attacks should Western powers carry out threatened strikes on Syria, Israeli Army Radio said on Wednesday.


(...)

Systems employed by Israel's air defence corps include the short-range Iron Dome, the mid-range Patriot and the long-range Arrow II.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that his country wanted to keep out of the Syrian crisis but would "respond forcefully" to any attempt to attack it.




Reuters link

 

[Journeyman]

Obama Weighing His Syria Option

WASHINGTON—Facing mounting domestic and international pressure to respond to the deployment of chemical weapons by the government of Bashar al-Assad, White House sources confirmed today that President Barack Obama is carefully weighing his option for dealing with the war-torn Middle Eastern nation. “The president has conferred with his top advisors and is currently considering everything from authorizing missile strikes against Syrian regime targets, to taking out Syrian regime targets with missile strikes—nothing is off the table at this point,” said White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, noting that the president would “take all factors into consideration,” including the well-being of the Syrian people and the strategic interests of the United States, before settling on his only option.

“The president recognizes that the situation in Syria is extremely delicate and that the U.S. faces complex consequences regardless of what he chooses; that’s why he’s giving the one option in front of him so much thought. He will not act until he’s confident in the inexorable decision he’s making.” At press time, Obama had reportedly narrowed his option down to missile strikes against Syrian regime targets, but stated that he would consider it for several more days before making a final decision.

It's sad when the Onion's sarcastic mocking is probably the truth. 


With more Onion "reporting" here

 

[vonGarvin]

Jus ad Bellum:

Right authority
The principle of right authority suggests that a war is just only if waged by a legitimate authority. Such authority is rooted in the notion of state sovereignty.

Right intention
According to the principle of right intention, the aim of war must not be to pursue narrowly defined national interests, but rather to re-establish a just peace. This state of peace should be preferable to the conditions that would have prevailed had the war not occurred.

Reasonable hope
Just wars must have a reasonable chance of success. According to the principle of reasonable hope, there must be good grounds for believing that the desired outcome can be achieved.  This principle involves weighing the costs and benefits of waging war and emphasizes that human life and economic resources should not be wasted on war efforts that are certain to fail.

Proportionality
The principle of proportionality stipulates that the violence used in the war must be proportional to the attack suffered. For example, if one nation invades and seizes the land of another nation, this second nation has just cause for a counterattack in order to retrieve its land. However, if this second nation invades the first, reclaims its territory, and then also annexes the first nation, such military action is disproportional.

Last resort
The principle of last resort stipulates that all non-violent options must first be exhausted before the use of force can be justified.

We don't have a reasonable hope.  We cannot achieve the desired outcome no matter how many bombs are dropped.  We have no choice but to let this war carry on, and stand by to render assistance without interfering.  After all, Assad, who is no saint, is only mildly more brutish with these Islamo-fascist thugs than we are.

And I don't believe for one moment that his government, who is winning and has the support of the majority of his people (coerced or otherwise), used chemical weapons on the savages.  And unlike Saddam some ten years ago, he's complying with the UN, and therefore the international community as his fights his own little counter insurgency against the same people we're trying to kill in other parts of the world.

 

[The Bread Guy]

.... Assad, who is no saint, is only mildly more brutish with these Islamo-fascist thugs would be if they take over ....

FTFY - good point.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Los Angeles Times report that an (unnamed) US official told them that ".... he believed the White House would seek a level of intensity "just muscular enough not to get mocked" but not so devastating that it would prompt a response from Syrian allies Iran and Russia ... "They are looking at what is just enough to mean something, just enough to be more than symbolic," he said."


And that, not getting mocked, is what passes for foreign policy in Washington in 2013.

Henry Stimson and Dean Acheson would be ashamed to be Americans.

 

[The Bread Guy]

More from CTV's Mercedes Stephenson, 140 characters at a time....

#1. We don't know what Canada might contribute yet because nobody knows what kind of action the US will pursue.

Until the strategic direction of the mission is determined, it is impossible to know if we'll send planes, a ship or transport capabilities

The mission could look like a Libya scenario, or a Mali where we were facilitating, but by helping allies get there vs direct participation

Military sources tell me the Syrian military is VERY well armed and that will influence the calculus on what kind of mission it will be

Cda will most likely wait until after the initial strike (if there is one) so US and coalition can determine nature of the mission & needs

 

[vonGarvin]

In other words "follow us, we'll be right behind you."

...

 

[CougarKing]

US military strike on Syria 'as early as today'
by: John Lyons, Middle East Correspondent
From: The Australian
August 29, 2013 12:00AM

BRITISH Prime Minister David Cameron will make the case to parliament for targeted military action to halt the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Mr Cameron was briefed by his military chiefs yesterday after ordering parliament to be recalled from its summer recess as momentum builds for strikes against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

After a telephone conversation with Barack Obama, Mr Cameron said Britain would seek UN Security Council backing for action to protect Syrian civilians by submitting a draft resolution later overnight (AEST).

Mr Cameron is expected to tell lawmakers in today's debate that he foresees targeted military strikes to "degrade" the regime's chemical weapons capability, and will urge them to support such action in a vote.

<snipped>

Mr Cameron's office said he and the US President had no doubt Assad's government had used chemical weapons in Damascus on August 21, killing hundreds.

"Both leaders agreed that all the information available confirmed a chemical weapons attack had taken place, noting that even the Iranian President and Syrian regime had conceded this," Downing Street.

<snipped>

Mr Cameron's office called his talks with Mr Obama "an opportunity for the PM to hear the latest US thinking on the issue and to set out the options being considered by the government". Senior officials in Washington told NBC news that strikes against targets in Syria could take place as early as today.

The Australian

 

[tomahawk6]

I certainly hope the administration resists the urge to attack targets in Syria.Strategically we are better off watch the bad guys kill each other.We don't have any friends there.