Syria Superthread [merged]

a_majoor · 7 Dec 2012

If you can make a chemical detergent you have the science and technology to make chemical weapons as well (sorry, couldn't resist).

On a more practical note, chemical weapons have lots of issues in their logistics and use which means they are really only effective in relatively specialized circumstances, and the same amount of effort and energy used to produce chemical weapons may be more profitably expended on something else. This also explains Iran's monomaniacal obsession with nuclear weapons vs chemical or biological weapons; in many way nuclear weapons are more "practical" and dependable as weapons of war than chemical or even biological weapons.

In terms of "dashing" across Iraq with aircraft loaded with chemical weapons, the idea is a total non starter. The reaction of the Iraqis, much less the Americans, of having chemical weapons ferried across Iraqi territory would be terrible to behold. Now imagine an aircraft doing this has an accident and crashes.....

kevincanada · 7 Dec 2012

Why the sudden rhetoric on Syria chemical weapons? All these warnings pop up from different nations over the last day or two.. We all know Syria has them. This isn't new. Unless some nations are looking for a reason to invade Syria.

Lets say Syria looses the war, then what? If we look to Egypt for example, While I'll bite my tongue and give Mohamed Morsi the benefit of the doubt until after the constitution vote to see if he gives his powers back to the hands of the people. If not. Whose to say they don't just come up with a new dictator in Syria as again, biting my tongue here maybe happening in Egypt.

Futhermore. How is threatening Assad a good idea? I'm assuming Assad is well aware of what happen to Gaddafi. Pushing Assad into a corner with the threat of a possible fate of Gaddafi. Sounds almost like encouragement for him to use chemical weapons.

I think it's a mistake to threaten Assad, doing so in my opinion is just backing a pissed off bull into a corner.
But it's just my 2 cents on it.

tomahawk6 · 9 Dec 2012

Interesting Stratfor article summing up the current situation in Syria.

"Al Assad's Last Stand is republished with permission of Stratfor."

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/al-assads-last-stand?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20121206&utm_term=sweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=3d69d77bdd304edea6dc0391a302e86b

By Omar Lamrani

The battle for Damascus is raging with increasing intensity while rebels continue to make substantial advances in Syria's north and east. Every new air base, city or town that falls to the rebels further underlines that Bashar al Assad's writ over the country is shrinking. It is no longer possible to accurately depict al Assad as the ruler of Syria. At this point, he is merely the head of a large and powerful armed force, albeit one that still controls a significant portion of the country.

The nature of the conflict has changed significantly since it began nearly two years ago. The rebels initially operated with meager resources and equipment, but bolstered by defections, some outside support and their demographic advantage, they have managed to gain ground on what was previously a far superior enemy. Even the regime's qualitative superiority in equipment is fast eroding as the rebels start to frequently utilize main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket and tube artillery and even man-portable air-defense systems captured from the regime's stockpiles.

Weary and stumbling, the regime is attempting to push back rebel forces in and near Damascus and to maintain a corridor to the Alawite coast while delaying rebel advances in the rest of the country. Al Assad and his allies will fight for every inch, fully aware that their power depends on the ability of the regime forces to hold ground.

The Battle for Damascus

It is important to remember that, despite considerable setbacks, al Assad's forces still control a sizable portion of Syria and its population centers. After failing to take Damascus in Operation Damascus Volcano in July, the rebels are again stepping up their efforts and operations in the Damascus area. However, unlike in their previous failed operation, this time the rebels are relying on an intensive guerrilla campaign to exhaust and degrade al Assad's substantial forces in Damascus and its countryside.

After the last surge in fighting around Damascus in July and August, the regime kept large numbers of troops in the area. These forces continued search and destroy operations near the capital despite the considerable pressure facing its forces in the rest of the country, including in Aleppo. Once the rebels began to make gains in the north and east, the regime was forced to dispatch some of its forces around Damascus to reinforce other fronts. Unfortunately for the regime, its operations in the capital area had not significantly degraded local rebel forces. Rebels in the area began intensifying their operations once more, forcing the regime to recall many of its units to Damascus.

Aware of the magnitude of the threat, the regime has reportedly shifted its strategy in the battle for Damascus to isolating the city proper from the numerous suburbs. The rebels have made considerable headway in the Damascus suburbs. For example, on Nov. 25 rebels overran the Marj al-Sultan military air base in eastern Ghouta, east of the capital. Rebel operations in the outskirts of Damascus have also interrupted the flow of goods to and from the city, causing the prices of basic staples such as bread to skyrocket.
Rebel Gains in the East and North

Damascus is not the only area where the regime is finding itself under considerable pressure. The rebels have made some major advances in the last month in the energy-rich Deir el-Zour governorate to the east. Having seized a number of towns, airfields and military bases, the rebels have also taken the majority of the oil fields in the governorate. They captured the Al-Ward oil field Nov. 4, the Conoco natural gas reserve Nov. 27 and, after al Assad's forces withdrew from it on Nov. 29, the Omar oil field north of the town of Mayadeen. Al Assad's forces now control only five oil fields, all located west of the city of Deir el-Zour. With the battle for the city and its associated airfield intensifying, even those remaining fields are at risk of falling into rebel hands.

The rebel successes in Deir el-Zour have effectively cut the regime's ground lines of communication and supply to Iraq. They have also starved the regime of the vast majority of its oil revenue and affected its ability to fuel its war machine. At the same time, the rebels are reportedly already seeking to capitalize on their seizure of the eastern oil fields. According to reports, the rebels are smuggling oil to Turkey and Iraq and using the revenue to purchase arms. They are also reportedly using the oil and natural gas locally for power generators and fuel.

While all of eastern Syria may soon fall into rebel hands, rebels in the north have continued to isolate al Assad forces in Idlib and Aleppo governorates, particularly in the capital cities of those two provinces. After overrunning the 46th regiment near Atarib on Nov. 19 following a two-month siege, the rebels are now looking to further squeeze remaining regime forces in Aleppo by taking the Sheikh Suleiman base north of the 46th regiment's former base.
The Rebels' Improved Air Defense Capability

Isolated and surrounded, regime forces in the north are increasingly relying on air support for both defense and supply. However, this advantage is deteriorating every day and is increasingly threatened by the rebels' improved air defense arsenal and tactics.

The rebels first attempted to acquire air defense weaponry by seizing heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft artillery. They captured a number of air defense bases, taking 12.7 mm DShK heavy machine guns, 14.5 mm KPV heavy machine guns and even 23 mm ZU-23-2 autocannons. Over time, the rebels became more proficient with these weapons, and an increasing number of Syrian air force fixed-wing and rotary aircraft were shot down. The rebels also formed hunter-killer groups with air defense equipment mounted on flatbed trucks that provided them mobile platforms for targeting regime air and infantry units.

As more and more regime bases were taken, the rebels were able to bolster their air defense equipment through the capture of a number of man-portable air-defense systems. At the outset of the conflict, the Syrian military maintained a large inventory of shoulder-fired air-defense missiles, likely thousands of missiles ranging from early generation SA-7s to very advanced SA-24s. These missiles were stored in army bases across the country. There are also unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may have transferred some man-portable air-defense systems to the rebels through Turkey.

The rebels tallied their first confirmed kill with shoulder-fired air-defense missiles Nov. 27, when they shot down a Syrian Arab Air Force Mi-8/17 helicopter near Aleppo city. The weapon system used in the attack was likely an SA-7, SA-16 or SA-24 captured from the 46th regiment. The surface-to-air missiles are a serious upgrade in the rebels' air defense capability.
The Fight Continues

Having isolated al Assad's forces in the north and made substantial advances in the east, the rebels are poised to push farther into the Orontes River Valley to relieve the beleaguered rebel units in the Rastan, Homs and al-Qusayr areas of Homs governorate. For months, regime forces have sought to overwhelm the remaining rebel forces in Homs city, but the rebels have managed to hold out. The rebels are also set to begin pushing south along the main M5 thoroughfare to Khan Sheikhoun and the approaches to Hama. However, first they need to overwhelm the remaining regime forces in Wadi al-Dhaif near Maarrat al-Numan.

Alternatively, the regime is fighting hard to maintain its control over the Orontes River Valley around Homs in order to keep an open corridor linking Damascus to the mostly Alawite coast. Not only is this corridor at risk of eventually being cut off, but the regime is also facing a substantial push by rebel forces into northeastern Latakia governorate from Idlib. Rebels have advanced in the vicinity of the Turkman Mountain, have taken control of Bdama and are now fighting their way down in the direction of Latakia city.

While events in Damascus and Rif Damascus are increasingly worrisome for the regime, al Assad's forces in the rest of Syria are also under considerable pressure from rebel advances. It is by no means certain that al Assad's forces are under imminent threat of collapse because they still hold a great deal of territory and no major city has yet been completely taken by the rebels. The retreat and consolidation of al Assad's forces also allows them to maintain shorter and less vulnerable lines of supply. However, it is clear that the regime is very much on the defensive and has been forced to gradually contract its lines toward a core that now encompasses Damascus, the Orontes River Valley and the mostly Alawite coast. With the regime's situation rapidly deteriorating, even the attempt to stage a gradual withdrawal to the core is risky.

a_majoor · 14 Dec 2012

A look at some of the ways WMD could e neutralized or destroyed in situ:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/weapons/how-the-us-could-take-out-syrias-chemical-weapons-14826307?click=pm_news

How the U.S. Could Take Out Syria’s Chemical Weapons

The Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency develops "agent defeat" weapons specifically designed to thwart chemical threats. If the U.S. ever decided to act against Syria’s reported chemical agent buildup, this is what it would use.
By David Hambling

Satellite image of a location widely reported as a chemical weapons facility in Al Safirah, Syria collected on August 1, 2012.

December 11, 2012 11:45 AM

Intelligence reports coming out of the war in Syria have said that Bashar al-Assad’s regime could be mixing components to produce sarin nerve gas to fill artillery shells or bombs. President Obama has warned the Syrian regime that the use of chemical weapons would be unacceptable and would result in "consequences," while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Assad using chemical weapons against his own people would mean crossing "a red line for the United States." Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said today that there were no signs of aggressive new steps by Assad, but the standoff remains tense.

One possible response, if the situation worsens, would be to neutralize Syrian chemical stockpiles. Attacking Syria would be a huge leap into the conflict for the U.S. But if it did this, the Pentagon could turn to exotic "agent defeat" weapons specially developed for the purpose.

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has provided the Pentagon with scientific, technical, and operational support against all types of weapons of mass destruction since 1998. This includes finding means of destroying WMD before they can be deployed. The agency’s most famous product might be the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker buster. But the DTRA also has built subtler technology that could be deployed against chemical agents.

Specialized weapons are needed for the task because conventional explosives create a risk of dispersing the agents though the blast and heat of an explosion. The plume that appears after a bomb detonation shows how high debris can rise—and from that altitude it can travel downwind for many miles. This creates a lethal threat to large numbers of civilians.

One approach to get around this problem is to build a bomb with no explosives—one that’s simply intended to puncture storage containers. The CBU-107 Passive Attack Weapon is a 1000-pound bomb that breaks open in the air to produce a shower of 3700 steel and tungsten darts ranging in size from an ounce to a pound, which hammer an area two hundred feet wide. This might seem like a poor solution, since the chemical agents still release into the air. But many chemical agents are heavier than air and won’t travel far if released at ground level. Plus, the action of sunlight and air will degrade them.

The best defense is to destroy the chemical agents as rapidly as possible, and this is the thinking behind the BLU-119/B CrashPAD bomb developed in 2004. PAD stands for Prompt Agent Defeat. Like the CBU-107, CrashPAD throws out shrapnel to pierce chemical storage containers. But this weapon also carries a main payload of more than 400 pounds of white phosphorus, which burns at a high temperature and rapidly breaks down chemical agents. In 2007, the DTRA also developed a penetrating version called Shredder to attack chemical stockpiles in underground bunkers.

The Pentagon has been secretive about the projects that have been in development since then. But from unclassified documents we know that newer weapons are likely to be more sophisticated. The latest DTRA R&D budget mentions funding for new "payloads capable of neutralizing large amounts of WMD agent." Candidates include intermetallic reactions, novel types of thermite (metal reacting with metal oxide with pyrotechnic consequences), new energetic nanomaterials, and thermobaric materials—fuel-rich explosives that react with oxygen in the air and produce high temperatures.

For example, there was a proposal for a spin-off from an incendiary known as Vulcan Fire, which would have been developed for Special Operations command. This is described as "thermo-corrosive" because of its combination of incendiary and chemical effects. In the first stage, powdered titanium meets boron in a high-energy reaction. As the temperature climbs past 450F, the warhead fires out metal projectiles to rupture chemical storage vessels and release their contents, then scatters wicking material to soak up pooled chemicals. Finally the warhead would release lithium perchlorate. This reacts with the titanium diboride from the incendiary reaction, generating monatomic chlorine intended to neutralize any remaining chemical agents.

Another proposed agent-defeat weapon combines a thermite mixture, such as powdered iron oxide and aluminum with a foaming agent. When triggered, this produces molten metallic foam that smothers the chemical storage area. The foam then undergoes a reaction producing temperatures of 2000 degrees F, neutralizing any chemicals. This technique was patented in 2010, which suggests development is continuing.

One DTRA development we do know to be in its final stages of development is a warhead filled with self-propelled kinetic fireball incendiaries, or "rocket balls." These are hollow balls made of compacted rocket fuel, loaded into a bunker-busting bomb in place of a normal explosive warhead. When the bomb penetrates the target and releases the payload, the ignited fireballs ricochet around at high speed, heading down corridors and tunnels and filling the entire facility. They burn at high temperature, igniting anything flammable and destroying chemical or biological stores.

The major caveat: Even if these kinds of weapons work exactly as planned, knocking out Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles is not just a weapons engineering challenge. Intelligence is key and, as the war in Iraq showed, pinning down WMD is notoriously difficult. It’s no use taking out a warehouse with the latest hardware if the chemicals were never there, or if they were moved out the previous day. And any action on a stockpile is hazardous. Anything less than 100 percent destruction risks exposing innocent civilians to lethal chemical agents. Agent defeat weapons might offer some options in an unstable and dangerous situation in Syria, but they are certainly not an easy, risk-free solution.

Read more: How the U.S. Could Take Out Syria’s Chemical Weapons - Popular Mechanics

tomahawk6 · 14 Dec 2012

The US,Germany and the Netherlands are going to deploy 6 Patriot batteries in Turkey. I assume that a battalion or brigade HQ would be deployed for command and control.

Ducimus BTC · 14 Dec 2012

(CNN) -- The United States gave the go-ahead Friday to deploy Patriot anti-ballistic missiles to Turkey along with enough troops to operate them as the heavily embattled government in neighboring Syria again vehemently denied firing ballistic missiles at rebels.

The United States has accused Damascus of launching Scud-type artillery from the capital at rebels in the country's north. One Washington official said missiles came close to the border of Turkey, a NATO member and staunch U.S. ally.

Syria's government called the accusations "untrue rumors" Friday, according to state news agency SANA. Damascus accused Turkey and its partners of instigating rumors to make the government look bad internationally.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta signed the order while en route to Turkey to send two Patriot missile batteries and 400 U.S. troops to operate them. The surface-to-air interceptors will help in "dealing with threats that come out of Syria," Panetta said after landing at Incirlik Air Base, a U.S. Air Force installation about 80 miles from Syria's border.

Panetta was unconcerned about possible reactions from Damascus to the Patriot deployment. "We can't spend a lot of time worrying about whether that pisses off Syria," he said, adamant that helping Turkey was the priority.
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Panetta did say he was worried what Bashar al-Assad's government may do if it feels it is near collapse.

Descriptions provided to CNN by U.S. officials familiar with the latest intelligence suggest the Syrian leader's problems have accelerated internally as the opposition continues to capture more territory.

"It's at its lowest point yet," said one senior U.S. official with direct knowledge of the latest assessments. "The trend is moving more rapidly than it has in the past."

The officials agreed to talk on the condition their names not be used because they were not authorized to discuss the information with the media.

When asked what the response might be if Syria deployed chemical weapons, Panetta said that the U.S. military had "drawn up plans" but that "it's not easy" to defend against them.

Germany and the Netherlands have shown willingness to add two Patriot batteries each from their countries, NATO said Friday, to defend Turkey and "de-escalate the crisis on NATO's southeastern border."

NATO has also said it detected what appeared to be ballistic missile launches within Syria and condemned their possible use as "utter disregard for the lives of the Syrian people."

Turkey and NATO insist the Patriot system would be used only for defense.

Patriots are constructed to take out threats from warplanes and tactical ballistic missiles to unmanned aircraft by impacting with them in midair, according to Raytheon Co., which builds them. The U.S. military used to take out Scud missiles during the Iraq war.

Old Sweat · 14 Dec 2012

And here is the AP story to support T6's report. It is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has signed orders to send Patriot missiles, personnel to Turkey.

INCIRLIK AIR BASE, Turkey — The U.S. will send two batteries of Patriot missiles and 400 troops to Turkey as part of a NATO force meant to protect Turkish territory from potential Syrian missile attack, the Pentagon said Friday.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta signed a deployment order en route to Turkey from Afghanistan calling for 400 U.S. soldiers to operate two batteries of Patriots at undisclosed locations in Turkey, Pentagon press secretary George Little told reporters flying with Panetta.

Germany and the Netherlands have already agreed to provide two batteries of the U.S.-built defense systems and send up to 400 German and 360 Dutch troops to man them, bringing the total number of Patriot batteries slated for Turkey to six.

German lawmakers voted 461-86 Friday to approve the deployment of two Patriot missile batteries. The mandate allows Germany to deploy a maximum 400 soldiers through January 2014. NATO foreign ministers endorsed Turkey's request for the Patriots on Nov. 30.

A number of Syrian shells have landed in Turkish territory since the conflict in the Arab state began in March 2011. Turkey has condemned the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad, supported Syrian rebels and provided shelter to Syrian refugees. Ankara is particularly worried that Assad may get desperate enough to use chemical weapons.

During a brief stop at Incirlik Air Base, Panetta told U.S. troops that Turkey might need the Patriots, which are capable of shooting down shorter-range ballistic missiles as well as aircraft.

He said he approved the deployment "so that we can help Turkey have the kind of missile defense it may very well need to deal with the threats coming out of Syria," he said.

The U.S., Germany and the Netherlands are the only NATO members who have the upgraded PAC-3 missiles, capable of missile interception. Each battery has an average of 12 missile launchers, a NATO official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because alliance regulations do not allow him to speak on the record.

In a statement issued Friday NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said "the deployment will be defensive only."

"It will not support a no-fly zone or any offensive operation. Its aim is to deter any threats to Turkey, to defend Turkey's population and territory and to de-escalate the crisis on NATO's south-eastern border," Lungescu said.

Panetta did not mention how soon the two Patriot batteries will head to Turkey or how long they might stay.

Earlier this week in Berlin, German Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Link told lawmakers that current plans call for the missile sites to be stationed at Kahramanmaras, about 60 miles north of Turkey's border with Syria. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Thursday that the Netherlands, Germany and the U.S. are working closely with Turkey "to ensure that the Patriots are deployed as soon as possible." But he predicted they would not become operational before the end of January. Turkey joined NATO in 1952, three years after the alliance was formed.

At Incirlik Air Base, about 60 miles north of the Syrian border, an Air Force member asked Panetta what the US would do if Syria used chemical or biological weapons against the rebels. Panetta said he could not be specific in a public setting, but added, "we have drawn up plans" that give President Barack Obama a set of options in the event that U.S. intelligence shows that Syria intends to use such weapons.

Asked by another Air Force member whether he thought Syria would "react negatively" to the Patriot deployments, Panetta said, "I don't think they have the damn time to worry" about the Patriots since the regime's leaders are struggling to stay in power.

He indicated that Syria's reaction to the Patriots was not a major concern to him.

Separately, NATO will deploy its Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft, or AWACS, to Turkey on a training exercise this month, the NATO said.

He said the exercise was not connected to the deployment of the Patriots.

The aircraft, which can detect launches of ground-to-ground missiles, will exercise command and control procedures as well as test the connectivity of various NATO and Turkish communications and data sharing systems, the official said.

a_majoor · 15 Dec 2012

Russia could be another victim of the events in Syria, although in this cse it is entirely self inflicted:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/13/russia-reveals-its-weakness-in-syria/

Russia Reveals Its Weakness in Syria

Is Russia finally giving up on Assad? It certainly seems like it. The BBC has the story:

[Russian Deputy Foreign Minister] Mr Bogdanov said on Thursday: “Unfortunately, we cannot rule out the victory of the Syrian opposition.”

Mr Bogdanov repeated Russia’s call for dialogue between the two sides, predicting that the fighting would grow more intense.

“If such a price for ousting the president seems acceptable to you, then what can we do? We consider it unacceptable,” he said.

Mr Bogdanov said plans were being drawn up for a possible evacuation of Russian citizens.

This is huge. After years and years of providing generous support and political cover to the Assad regime, Russia is finally admitting that it simply can’t do much to keep its close ally in power. Clearly, this is a bad omen for Assad, but Russia’s resignation here highlights just how impotent the ex-superpower remains in a part of the world that is of vital interest to it. Beyond its leverage on the Security Council, Russia simply lacks the ability to influence events on the ground in Syria.

Rest assured, this lesson will not be lost on other countries in the region. And from the Kremlin we should expect an attempt to distract attention abroad and at home from the spectacle of Russian impotence. For President Putin, whose appeal and prestige at home has always been tied to perceptions that he has been leading Russia back to the center of world politics, the failure in Syria is a domestic as well as a foreign policy setback.

Spector83 · 15 Dec 2012

Rebels seize Syrian army infantry school in Aleppo 15/12/2012

Syrian rebel forces on Sunday seized an army infantry school in the town of Musalmiyeh, 16 km (10 miles) north of the city of Aleppo, a senior military defector based in Turkey and rebel sources inside Syria said.

"This is of big strategic and symbolic importance. The school has ammunition depots and armored formations and it protects the northern gate to Aleppo," Brigadier General Mustafa al-Sheikh told Reuters by phone from the town of Apayden on the Turkish border with Syria.

"I cannot tell you the details but I can say that the morale of the Syrian army is collapsing," he said.

Rebel sources in the northerly Aleppo province said the facility had been seized following a firefight and defections within the school. They said several loyalist officers had been captured.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkKvWjGP9qk

tomahawk6 · 15 Dec 2012

Assad's troops like Khaddafi's have no way out. If they surrender they will be executed. The tops guys can run. There is no place to go for the privates and Lt's.

tomahawk6 · 17 Dec 2012

NBC's Richard Engel is missing in Syria since the 11th. Not good.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2249562/Award-winning-NBC-News-foreign-correspondent-Richard-Engel-missing-Syria-Thursday.html

NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel, one of the most prominent and accomplished international correspondents in the world, is reportedly missing in Syria.

Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reports that Engel, together with Turkish journalist Aziz Akyavaş, were last known to be in Syria and haven't been in contact with NBC News since Thursday morning.

While the Turkish media have been circulating the report for several days, American outlets had been operating under a news blackout requested by NBC until today.

tamouh · 18 Dec 2012

tomahawk6 said:
NBC's Richard Engel is missing in Syria since the 11th. Not good.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2249562/Award-winning-NBC-News-foreign-correspondent-Richard-Engel-missing-Syria-Thursday.html

NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel, one of the most prominent and accomplished international correspondents in the world, is reportedly missing in Syria.

Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reports that Engel, together with Turkish journalist Aziz Akyavaş, were last known to be in Syria and haven't been in contact with NBC News since Thursday morning.

While the Turkish media have been circulating the report for several days, American outlets had been operating under a news blackout requested by NBC until today.

I would hate to speculate on a man's life. However, if NBC had requested the blackout then they likely know where he is located, but unable to reach him. He could possibly be with a group that got surrounded by the Syrian army and unable to make further communications until they break out.

tomahawk6 · 18 Dec 2012

Engel has been released unharmed.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/18/15985279-richard-engel-and-nbc-news-team-freed-from-captors-in-syria?lite

NBC News’ Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and members of his network production team were freed from captors in Syria after a firefight at a checkpoint on Monday, five days after they were taken prisoner, NBC News said early Tuesday.

“After being kidnapped and held for five days inside Syria by an unknown group, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and his production crew members have been freed unharmed. We are pleased to report they are safely out of the country,” the network said in a statement. The captors were unidentified.

Engel, 39, along with other employees the network did not identify, disappeared shortly after crossing into northwest Syria from Turkey on Thursday. The network had not been able to contact them until learning that they had been freed on Monday.

Journeyman · 18 Dec 2012

Another post from Stratfor, provided in accordance with their policy.

Syria: U.N. Considering Sending Peacekeepers
The United Nations is considering sending between 4,000 and 10,000 peacekeeping troops to Syria, a diplomatic source said Dec. 15, RIA Novosti reported. However, the United Nations' resources are limited and to send peacekeepers to Syria it would have to withdraw them from other countries, the source said.

Stand-up comedy at its finest. :rofl:

Jarnhamar · 18 Dec 2012

Is Syria a part of the UN?
Maybe the UN could send Syrian peacekeepers to Syria- save on transportation ya know?

57Chevy · 11 Jan 2013

From News.com.au and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act
The US is concerned about securing Syria's chemical weapons should President Bashar al-Assad fall.

What !!!
Is no one else concerned ?

Syria to be discussed by UN, Russia, US
Article link

UN-ARAB League peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is set to meet top US and Russian officials on Friday to discuss the Syrian conflict, a day after Damascus denounced his "bias" against President Bashar al-Assad.
.......

57Chevy · 11 Jan 2013

Plain and simple,
an attack from terrorists with chemical or biological weapons is more dangerous
and would be more devastating than most realize.

Attack on the Homeland - Bio-Chemical Weapons in the Hands of Terrorists
Hell Unleashed <<<<<<Link

What a complacent world we live in, the modern age. The average guy drinking his early morning Starbucks while checking his Facebook page from his mobile phone just doesn't realize how badly terrorists want to inflict harm on America -- and not just America -- though it is at the top of the list of most terrorist organizations.

If we could look into the minds of hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of Islamic radicals we would likely see that many obsess over the day they can play a part in the slaying of the Great Satan, as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad likes to calls the United States of America.

Enough terrorists have been caught and enough intelligence gathered by western governments to know that terrorists are actively seeking nuclear weapons, as well as chemical and biological weapons, and have been for several years. Rumors abound of Russian nukes making their way to the black market, as well as nuclear-armed North Korea in an alliance with Iran, helping Iranian scientists in the development of nuclear weapons. Those are the rumors anyway. Add Russian scientists to that list by the way.

The odds of a major terrorist strike aren't going away simply because more time is passing since 9-11. A smart bet, considering all the evidence, is that terrorists will strike, and America will suffer a serious set back at some point in the near future.
Every year that Radical Islam grows in global reach and people sworn to it's cause is like a game of Russian roulette, where America just keeps getting lucky. Odds are that luck is going to run out.

On the topic of survival, let's talk about this threat of biological and chemical weapons (or simply "bio-chemical weapons"). If you're like one of millions of Americans, there's a good chance you live in or near a major city that may just suffer a bio-chemical attack.

Think back to the two major world wars in the first half of the 20th century, and even back to the 19th century -- bio-chemical weapons have been used to kill enemy populations, such as Native Americans being given blankets by U.S. forces that were previously exposed to small pox.

Many Native Americans died as a result of these small-pox laced blankets. Then there are other types of bio-chemical weapons, such as anthrax. According to one report, the U.S. military is so concerned about the threat of anthrax that they hope to take steps to give vaccines to 2.4 million of their active troops to protect them from enemy attacks.

Article shared with provisions of the Copyright Act and continues at Link above.

cupper · 15 Jan 2013

It looks as if the Regime may have crossed a red line.

Exclusive: Secret State Department cable: Chemical weapons used in Syria

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/01/15/secret_state_department_cable_chemical_weapons_used_in_syria?wp_login_redirect=0

A secret State Department cable has concluded that the Syrian military likely used chemical weapons against its own people in a deadly attack last month, The Cable has learned.

United States diplomats in Turkey conducted a previously undisclosed, intensive investigation into claims that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons, and made what an Obama administration official who reviewed the cable called a "compelling case" that Assad's military forces had used a deadly form of poison gas.

The cable, signed by the U.S. consul general in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, and sent to State Department headquarters in Washington last week, outlined the results of the consulate's investigation into reports from inside Syria that chemical weapons had been used in the city of Homs on Dec. 23.

The consul general's report followed a series of interviews with activists, doctors, and defectors, in what the administration official said was one of the most comprehensive efforts the U.S. government has made to investigate claims by internal Syrian sources. The investigation included a meeting between the consulate staff and Mustafa al-Sheikh, a high-level defector who once was a major general in Assad's army and key official in the Syrian military's WMD program.

An Obama administration official who reviewed the document, which was classified at the "secret" level, detailed its contents to The Cable. "We can't definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23," the official said.

The use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would cross the "red line" President Barack Obama first established in an Aug. 20 statement. "We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation," Obama said.

To date, the administration has not initiated any major policy changes in response to the classified cable, but a Deputies Committee meeting of top administration officials is scheduled for this week.

The report confirms the worst fears of officials who are frustrated by the current policy, which is to avoid any direct military assistance to the Syrian rebels and limit U.S. aid to sporadic deliveries of humanitarian and communications equipment.

Many believe that Assad is testing U.S. red lines.

"This reflects the concerns of many in the U.S. government that the regime is pursuing a policy of escalation to see what they can get away with as the regime is getting more desperate," the administration official said.

The consulate's investigation was facilitated by BASMA, an NGO the State Department has hired as one of its implementing partners inside Syria. BASMA connected consular officials with witnesses to the incident and other first-hand information.

The official warned that if the U.S. government does not react strongly to the use of chemical weapons in Homs, Assad may be emboldened to escalate his use of such weapons of mass destruction.

"It's incidents like this that lead to a mass-casualty event," the official said.

Activist and doctors on the ground in Homs have been circulating evidence of the Dec. 23 incident over the past three weeks in an attempt to convince the international community of its veracity. An Arabic-language report circulated by the rebels' Homs medical committee detailed the symptoms of several of the victims who were brought to a makeshift field hospital inside the city and claims that the victims suffered severe effects of inhaling poisonous gas.

Activists have also been circulating videos of the victims on YouTube and Facebook. In one of the videos, victims can be seen struggling for breath and choking on their own vomit. (More videos, which are graphic, can be found here, here, here, here, here and here.)

Experts say the symptoms match the effects of Agent 15, known also by its NATO code BZ, which is a CX-level incapacitating agent that is controlled under schedule 2 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Syria is a party.

"The symptoms of an incapacitating agent are temporary. If someone is exposed to BZ, they are likely to be confused, perhaps to hallucinate," said Amy Smithson, a senior fellow with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "While it is not good news that a chemical agent of any kind may have been used in the Syrian conflict, this Agent 15 is certainly on the less harmful end of the spectrum of chemical warfare agents believed to be in the Syrian arsenal."

The Cable spoke with two doctors who were on the scene in Homs on Dec. 23 and treated the victims. Both doctors said that the chemical weapon used in the attack may not have been Agent 15, but they are sure it was a chemical weapon, not a form of tear gas. The doctors attributed five deaths and approximately 100 instances of severe respiratory, nervous system, and gastrointestinal ailments to the poison gas.

"It was a chemical weapon, we are sure of that, because tear gas can't cause the death of five people," said Dr. Nashwan Abu Abdo, a neurologist who spoke with The Cable from an undisclosed location inside of Homs.

Abdo said the chemical agent was delivered by a tank shell and that the range of symptoms varied based on the victim's proximity to the poison. The lightly affected people exhibited gastrointestinal symptoms, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain, he said. Victims who received a higher concentration of the poison, in addition to the gastrointestinal symptoms, showed respiratory symptoms as well.

"The main symptom of the respiratory ailments was bronchial secretions. This particular symptom was the cause of the death of all of the people," he said. "All of them died choking on their own secretions."

The doctors said their conclusion that the poison was a chemical agent and not tear gas was based on three factors: the suddenness of the deaths of those who were directly exposed, the large number of people affected, and the fact that many victims returned with recurring symptoms more than 12 hours after they had been treated, meaning that the poison had settled either in their nervous systems or fat tissue.

"They all had miosis -- pinpoint pupils. They also had generalized muscle pain. There were also bad symptoms as far as their central nervous system. There were generalized seizures and some patients had partial seizures. This actually is proof that the poison was able to pass the blood-brain barrier," Abdo said. "In addition, there was acute mental confusion presented by hallucinations, delusions, personality changes, and behavioral changes."

The doctors on the scene said they were not able to pinpoint the poison because they lacked the advanced laboratory equipment needed. They took blood, hair, saliva, and urine samples, but those samples are no longer viable for testing because too much time has passed, they said.

"We took many samples, we kept them, but we cannot get them anywhere because we are in the besieged Homs area," he said. "We are not 100 percent sure what poison was used, but we can say with firm statement that it was not tear gas, that's for sure."

The State Department, in response to inquiries from The Cable, declined to comment on the secret cable from Istanbul or say whether or not chemical weapons were used in the Homs attack, but said that the administration believes Assad's chemical weapons are secure.

"I'm not going to comment on the alleged content of a classified cable," State Department Spokesman Patrick Ventrell told The Cable. "As you know, the United States closely monitors Syria's proliferation-sensitive materials and facilities, and we believe Syria's chemical weapons stockpile remains secured by the Syrian government. We have been clear that if Assad's regime makes the tragic mistake of using chemical weapons or failing to secure them, it will be held accountable."

Shifting red lines

The White House's threats to react to Assad's WMD activity have softened over time. In Obama's Aug. 20 statement, he indicated that "a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around" would trigger U.S. action.

Obama then shifted his warning to Assad about red lines in December, after intelligence reports stated that the Syrian regime had moved some precursor chemicals out of storage and mixed them, making them easier to deploy. Now, Obama's red line is that the United States will react if Syria uses these weapons.

"The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable," Obama said Dec. 3, directing his comments at Assad. "If you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable." That same day, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton added: "we are certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur."

Outside analysts worry that the administration's red line may have shifted again.

"Given the fact you have that in a cable, this indicates that the Obama administration may not simply jump into the conflict because chemical agents are used," said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Assad has a much better idea now of what he can do and get away with."

"This shows that actually the red line on chemical weapons is not clear and that the regime may be able to use some chemical agents, and the response might not be immediate," he said.

On Jan. 11, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey said that the U.S. government and the international community doesn't have the capability to prevent Assad from using chemical weapons if he chooses to do so.

"The act of preventing the use of chemical weapons would be almost unachievable... because you would have to have such clarity of intelligence, you know, persistent surveillance, you'd have to actually see it before it happened, and that's -- that's unlikely, to be sure," Dempsey said. "I think that Syria must understand by now that the use of chemical weapons is unacceptable. And to that extent, it provides a deterrent value. But preventing it, if they decide to use it, I think we would be reacting."

Abdo, the Syrian neurologist, said that the doctors treating civilians inside Homs have run out of even the basic medicines they have been using to bring a level of comfort to the victims, such as the drug atropine.

"We hope this information will reach the people in the American government so maybe they will help us," he said. "If the regime does this one more time, we don't have the antidote in our hands anymore and we can't treat it. It's very urgent."

Journeyman · 15 Jan 2013

Interesting turn of events, given that StratforTM is reporting that al Assad is not currently in Syria, but is aboard a ship in the Med, with security provided by the Russians.

jollyjacktar · 16 Jan 2013

Syria Superthread [merged]

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