Status on Victoria-class Submarines?

[daftandbarmy]

Could these be from Nucs surfacing...

http://www.newsweek.com/arctic-ocean-nasas-operation-icebridge-mysterious-ice-holes-896488

Polynya?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynya

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well there's no scale with the picture.  I look out windows and operate EO/IR cameras (and have in the Arctic) and judging distance and size can be difficult with zero references.  If there was a skidoo, or a person, or anything for scale, that would help.

Here's some pics of US and UK boats punching holes in ice.  https://army.ca/forums/threads/126514/post-1529056.html#msg1529056

I agree that not having any of scale to reference makes it a guessing game but after looking at some of the pics with the Nucs tower just punching through the ice there are similarities.
https://www.facebook.com/pacific.command/photos/a.10157635426277588.1073742047.61575637587/10157635437017588/?type=3&theater

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

The article specifies that the pictures were taken early the same month (April of this year).

You may see in the picture, near the bottom, that a fourth similar hole has already re-closed, and looking to the left, that two much smaller hole appear to have existed then re-closed. It's a grouping.

I would like to propose another possible cause: On April 1, 2018, Chinese space station Tiangong 1 came crashing to earth from a generally polar orbit. This could just be a crash site of some of its parts. You never know where when they crash in the oceans, but investigating the bottom of the area in the picture would permit confirmation - or not - of my hypothesis.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The article specifies that the pictures were taken early the same month (April of this year).

You may see in the picture, near the bottom, that a fourth similar hole has already re-closed, and looking to the left, that two much smaller hole appear to have existed then re-closed. It's a grouping.

I would like to propose another possible cause: On April 1, 2018, Chinese space station Tiangong 1 came crashing to earth from a generally polar orbit. This could just be a crash site of some of its parts. You never know where when they crash in the oceans, but investigating the bottom of the area in the picture would permit confirmation - or not - of my hypothesis.

The timing of the above occurring also lines a bit nicely with 2 US and 1 Brit nuclear sub teaming up for drills in the arctic -

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/uss-hartford-nuclear-submarine-arctic/index.html

All three seem to line up nicely.  The article does say that its was a 5 week training time period....

 

[Czech_pivo]

Funny how the CBC only publishes this article 2 months after the training session occurred.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/canadian-submarines-not-part-of-international-arctic-under-ice-exercise-1.4699208

 

[dimsum]

Funny how the CBC only publishes this article 2 months after the training session occurred.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/canadian-submarines-not-part-of-international-arctic-under-ice-exercise-1.4699208

The CBC writes an article lamenting how we don't have Nuc subs, never mind that the infrastructure would be pretty extensive since we don't have servicing, maintenance, etc for them.  If Canada were to have them, I'll be $ that there would be articles protesting that we do. 

We just can't win.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Well, at least they found another "Arctic Sovereignty and Security" expert than prof Michael Byers. Kudos for raising their game!

 

[Colin Parkinson]

HMCS Windsor in the Med https://www.facebook.com/CRCN.CMRC/videos/2012672805650615/

 

[daftandbarmy]

The CBC writes an article lamenting how we don't have Nuc subs, never mind that the infrastructure would be pretty extensive since we don't have servicing, maintenance, etc for them.  If Canada were to have them, I'll be $ that there would be articles protesting that we do. 

We just can't win.

'Pig Boats' hunt Nukes.... just sayin'

 

[MarkOttawa]

See these accounts of the Mulroney government's quixotic effort to acquire SSNs in late 1980s, mainly to boost "Arctic sovereignty"--but terribly expensive, domestically contentious (USN also strongly opposed) and then Cold War started ending:

1) By US DoD official at the time:
 

TAKING A DIVE FOR A FRIEND--THE DECISION [by Ronald Reagan, who Mulroney got on with very well] TO TRANSFER NUCLEAR SUBMARINE TECHNOLOGY TO CANADA
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a437607.pdf

2) By Canadian academic:

Sovereignty, Security and the Canadian Nuclear Submarine Program
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vo8/no4/lajeunes-eng.asp

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Czech_pivo]

Thank you for providing this document for reading!

 

[MarkOttawa]

Czech_pivo: pleasure is mine.  Yet another of our wonderful procurement escapades, though more overly-ambitious than most .

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Czech_pivo]

A lot of the content in the articles still rings true today - we do shop out the enforcement of our sovereignty to the US in the Arctic.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

As we are finding out, having someone else do our sovereignty protection, comes at a price. 

 

[Dale Denton]

Probably doesn't belong in this thread, but perhaps with all that's going on in the news lately, would there be a slight revisit to a 'Canada-class'?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I doubt right now our political leaders are interested in even thinking about a new class of diesel-electric subs, much less anything nuclear powered. We should be talking about a replacement program now, so we would be building new subs as the Victoria class gets to old. But I suspect we will wait to the last minute and then go through our normal procurement debacle routine.

 

[Dale Denton]

Guessing here, but if they will be add-ons to the shipbuilding program. Maybe to whichever shipyard is in the gov'ts favour that could start building these in the 2030s.

Loved those articles attached earlier. Building the first ship in Europe so Canadian builders would learn, then copy in Canada like they tried to do again with the FREMM.

Colin, you smell a European shift in procurement coming?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The US does not build DE subs, so the likely contenders would be the French, Japanese or Germans. The French proposal might be wrapped up in with the Aussies, as their new subs will be very close to our specs. Since we would be order no more than 5, it would be highly unlikely and not economical to build them here. Sub building is a niche market and very specialized. Canada does build subs, but all 1-15 person subs for commercial and tourism. The tourist version have not been built since the 90's either. 

 

[Swampbuggy]

I don’t want to sound reactionary, but I think given the current circumstances, we shouldn’t count on the US for any part of our defence. I’d also maybe send a message by dropping the F-35 and F-18 out of the fighter competition. I’d also let it be known that the Navantia bid for CSC is being favoured over the other bids due to its lack of American technology/ownership.

 

[GR66]

I don’t want to sound reactionary, but I think given the current circumstances, we shouldn’t count on the US for any part of our defence. I’d also maybe send a message by dropping the F-35 and F-18 out of the fighter competition. I’d also let it be known that the Navantia bid for CSC is being favoured over the other bids due to its lack of American technology/ownership.

The US is and will continue to be Canada's largest trading partner and most important ally.  We share the top half of the continent and that's not going to change.  Getting our knickers in a knot and pushing back against Trump will only hurt ourselves.  We should stay the current course.  Continue to push and argue for open trade and close cooperation between our countries and use strategic and proportional tarrifs in response to Trumps actions which put the maximum pressure on those members of the US Congress and Senate who can influence Trump most. 

Trump is a temporary phenomenon...8 years is his maximum shelf life, but we'll be neighbours as long as we both exist.  Keep it calm and polite but firm.  We're a wealthy country and can weather this Trump storm even if it hurts.  When he's gone we'll face the challenges that the next US leader poses for us.