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Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

More "good" news about the Russian economy. Ironically, the NextBigFuture blog had an article about the development of the PAK-FA fighter as the next post; makes you wonder how the Russians plan to pay for all this new and upgraded military equipment they keep announcing?

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/russias-economy-shrinks-by-46-on-low.html

Russia's economy shrinks by 4.6% on low oil prices, sanctions

Russia's economy shrank by 4.6% in the second quarter of this year, posting the worst performance since the crippling recession of 2009, the state statistics agency reported Monday.

Russian consumers have also been hit by the eroding value of the ruble. The currency has dropped to 64 to the U.S. dollar, boosting inflation to 15.6% in July and propelling a decline in buying power with its depreciation of 43% over the last year.

The most damaging influence on the Russian economy is attributed to the slump in oil prices, which are roughly half what they were a year ago and down 20% in just the last six weeks. Russia counts on oil and gas sales to generate more than half of its national budget revenue.

U.S. and European sanctions imposed more than a year ago in punishment for Russia's seizure and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region also have taken their toll. And Russia's retaliatory ban on imports of European Union food products has spread the pain to many of the 28 member countries that enjoyed brisk trade with Moscow before the measures were invoked.

Russia's second-quarter year-over-year gross domestic product contraction was more than twice the rate of the first quarter, when the economy shrank by 2.2% compared with the first quarter of 2014. It also exceeded the Russian Economy Ministry's forecast of 4.4% economic decline this year.

Car sales in Russia are projected to drop by 36% this year

In June 2015, the Worldbank projected Russia's GDP would contract by 2.7 percent in 2015, before reaching 0.7 percent in 2016, and 2.5 percent in 2017. This was assuming an average oil price of US$58.0 per barrel for 2015 and of US$63.6 per barrel for 2016.

Currently West Texas oil is at $44 per barrel and Brent is at $50 per barrel.

Nextbigfuture has previously looked at the currency problems in Russia, the possibility of a depression (where the economy contracts by 10%) and where Russia could run out of liquid financial reserves.
 
Meanwhile, let the recce begin!
Russia's iconic Red Army Choir, orchestra and dance ensemble start a European city tour next month to honour the 70th anniversary of Second World War victory against Nazi Germany.

The route takes the world-famous Aleksandrov Ensemble to venues in 40 cities. It starts in Hungary's capital, Budapest, on September 5 and finishes in Tallinn, Estonia's capital, on December 10.

"We have a large-scale tour this year," said Valentina Maksimova, the ensemble's press secretary." Our main aim is to remind people of the role of the Soviet Union’s Red Army in the liberation from Nazi occupation."

Concert venues hosting capacity audiences of 4,000 or more will ring to a range of music including folk tunes, hymns, operatic arias and popular music ....
That would be THIS Red Army Chorus (site in Russian).
 
Russia adds four more countries to food import ban, and also bans Dutch flowers.  Threatens that Ukraine food imports may be banned in 2016 if they continue getting closer to EU.

Russia adds countries to food import ban over sanctions
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33905340

 
MCG said:
Russia adds four more countries to food import ban, and also bans Dutch flowers.  Threatens that Ukraine food imports may be banned in 2016 if they continue getting closer to EU.

Russia adds countries to food import ban over sanctions
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33905340

more food from the rest of us, hurts russians more then the rest of us
 
A fatal misstep for this gas giant?

Business Insider

Gazprom's colossal deal with China is already looking like a terrible move for Russia

MIKE BIRD

Aug. 17, 2015, 3:50 AM57,096  36

There was a lot of excitement in the industry when the Russian energy giant Gazprom announced a mammoth $400 billion (£256 billion), 30-year export deal to China in May 2014, but the agreement is now coming under extreme pressure on numerous fronts.

Morgan Stanley analysts on Monday morning suggested that construction of the necessary pipeline would be delayed by at least six months, taking the initial exports to mid-2019 at the earliest.

The initial deal had talked about beginning supplies as early as 2018.

Here's part of the note from Morgan Stanley on Monday morning:

According to a recent Interfax report, this contract was only activated on May 13 (2015) – seven months after the initial deadline. This means that exports from Russia can begin no earlier than in May 2019. The final deadline for the project coming on line is now May 2021. At the same time, in late July, China reportedly suspended a second pipeline, this one planned to pump 30 bcm per year from Western Siberian gas fields to China’s northern-western Xinjiang region.

It's not the first problem that's been noted for the Gazprom deal. Last week, a Financial Times report noted that the deal offered Gazprom, which is majority-owned by the Russian government, no protection against a prolonged period of lower oil prices. According to analysts the FT spoke with, at current oil prices the project is unprofitable or even loss-making for Gazprom.

russia china pipelineGazprom

In May 2014, Brent Crude was sitting at well over $100 a barrel, but it began to decline almost immediately after the agreement was reached.

(...SNIPPED)

Business Insider

Russia's gas giant 'is confronted with the greatest challenge in its history'
AFP
GERMAIN MOYON, AFP
Aug. 17, 2015, 9:12 AM

Moscow (AFP) - Facing a cold shoulder from Europe and increased competition at home, Russia's Gazprom has struggled to assert dominance on the global energy market, prompting speculation the energy giant could have no choice but to splinter.

With the Russian economy slipping into recession on the back of lower oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine, the economy ministry predicted Gazprom would produce 414 billion cubic metres of gas this year, an all-time low for the public company sitting atop some of the world's largest natural gas reserves.

Gazprom's market capitalisation has plummeted in recent years. Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the company was worth more than $300 billion. Its value now hovers around $50 billion, trailing far behind the world's other major energy companies.

"Gazprom is confronted with the greatest challenge in its history," Chris Weafer, a partner at the Macro Advisory consultancy firm, told AFP.

"What remains to be seen is whether Gazprom becomes an appendage of the foreign ministry or evolves into a global energy company."

The decline in Gazprom's value and gas production coincides with mounting tensions with the European Union, which has accused it of catering to Moscow's geopolitical interests instead of operating according to business principles.

Gazprom is now grappling with a series of issues, including its recent loss of the Ukrainian market, Europe's energy diversification efforts and increased competition on the domestic market, which jeopardise its status as a gas giant.


(...SNIPPED)
 
This article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Economist newspaper, belongs in both the Chinese Military, Political and Social Superthread and here:

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21661033-hard-times-border-these-days-packing-up-suitcase-trade
the-economist-logo.gif

China and Russia
Packing up the suitcase trade
Hard times at the border these days

Aug 15th 2015 | HEIHE | From the print edition

A FERRIS wheel visible from the Russian bank turns alluringly on the low island of Daheihe on the Chinese side of the Amur river. But the main attraction is the Daheihe Island International Trading City, with its bright ferry terminal and multi-level trading hall. Russian traders used to flock across the border to stuff their suitcases with cheap Chinese goods. Yet that trade, which long sustained the nearby Chinese city of Heihe, has hit a rough patch. Inside the vast trading hall stall-keepers spend more time knitting, napping and playing cards than they do making deals.

Shi Ying, a purveyor of medicines, tea, cosmetics and knick-knacks, blames the drop in value of Russia’s currency. Just over a year ago 100 roubles bought more than 18 yuan (about $3), but today they buy fewer than ten. The Russian economy has been hit by slumping prices for oil and gas, and by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and meddling in Ukraine. Russians, Ms Shi says, “have no money, it’s that simple.”

The stalls cover a huge space and offer wigs, watches, wheel rims, studded leather belts, fake Jim Beam bourbon, high-powered outboard motors and low-powered sex toys. Yet despite the astonishing range of goods, the traders all tell the same tale: declining sales. The few surly buyers from the Russian Far East are struggling too. “It is barely worth the trip,” says Irina, from Khabarovsk. “If the rouble falls any further, I’ll stop coming.” 

Political leaders on both sides of the border have said they want to boost bilateral trade. They have focused on oil and gas from Russia, and machinery going the other way. Last year bilateral trade topped $95 billion, a 6.8% increase over the previous year. Work has just begun on China’s portion of a 4,000-kilometre (2,500-mile) pipeline that will carry natural gas from Siberia—through Heihe—to Shanghai. But although the project will create a small number of local jobs during construction, residents expect to see few benefits once the gas starts flowing past their town.

The provincial government of Heilongjiang has been looking to boost trade in other ways. It shares a border of nearly 3,000 kilometres with Russia. It accounts for a quarter of China’s bilateral trade, and 30% of China’s total investment in Russia. Yet the sums are hardly spectacular—$1 billion of investment last year. The province intends to improve infrastructure. Plans for the first-ever bridge between the two countries across the Amur are being touted. Yet such plans have been on the drawing board for years.

Even if a bridge gets built, bilateral promise has a habit of falling short. Much is made of the warm political and personal ties between the Chinese and Russian presidents, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. In May, when many national leaders stayed away from Russia’s parade marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the second world war in Europe, Mr Xi cheerfully attended. Mr Putin is expected to return that favour in September, when China holds a parade of its own to commemorate the anniversary of the war’s end in Asia.

By far the biggest commercial deal to come out of the relationship was a 30-year contract for gas supplies that China signed last year with Gazprom, Russia’s state giant. Over $400 billion of gas, the deal’s boosters said, would be delivered over 30 years. The agreement was portrayed as having huge benefits for both countries. Yet even at the time, China was reckoned by analysts to have got Russia, suffering from Western sanctions, over a barrel. Since then energy prices have more than halved, leading many to suspect that under the terms of the deal Gazprom is losing lots of money already.

If so, it will do nothing to dispel Russian suspicions of China that lurk not far below the surface. In the late 1960s the two countries traded fire across the Amur river. Relations are now a world away from that period, yet while Russia sells arms to China, it is not trusting enough to provide its most advanced equipment. And in the Russian Far East, people are often quick to claim, with little evidence, that their empty land is being infiltrated by nefarious Chinese.

Back on Daheihe island, Oleg, a Chinese-speaking Russian, is doing his bit to improve relations—and profit from Russian woes. His Russian Products Direct Sales Centre opened early this month and offers 5-litre jugs of Russian sunflower oil and thick slabs of Russian chocolate to Chinese buyers. On the shop’s first day the top-selling item was milk powder for babies—Chinese trust foreign brands much more than domestic ones following years of contamination scandals. The weak rouble, Oleg says, can only be good for business.

From the print edition: China


It's a long, sometimes porous border that stretches from Hunchun, in Jilin province where the borders of Russia, North Korea and China meet and then North and West to a point, West of Manzhouli, where the borders of Russia, Mongolia and China meet. For centuries, millennia, actually, the Chinese feared the barbarian horsemen from the North ~ Mongols, Jurchens and Machus and so on ~ with good reasons and, over about 4,000 years, they adopted a variety of strategies, from Great Walls through bribery to cultural assimilation to cope. But the Russians are, to (some, perhaps many) Chinese a different category of barbarian. While the Asian/Sinic Mongols et al were to be feared, respected and even befriended, the Russians are seen as beneath the Chinese, less than suitable for civilization (a somewhat loaded idea in Chinese). The Chinese believe that Eastern Siberia is rich in resources, which the Chinese covet. But, I believe, that the Chinese, generally, do not want to annex or absorb Eastern Siberia. Some (many?) Chinese believe that the Qing Dynasty went too far in the 18th and 19th centuries and absorbed (annexed) too much; they believe that Tibet and Xinjiang are not Chinese enough to be part of China, despite their (debatable) strategic importance. Those people believe that Eastern Siberia should be a (or a few) independent state(s), rather like Mongolia, with close political ties to China.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
...Those people believe that Eastern Siberia should be a (or a few) independent state(s), rather like Mongolia, with close political ties to China.

...as Crimea is to Russia?  ;)
 
More evidence Vlad is losing his grip?

http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-eu-praises-release-of-political-prisoners-in-belarus-2015-8

The authoritarian president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, unexpectedly pardoned all six political prisoners on Saturday evening, including former opposition presidential candidate Nikolai Statkevich.

Statkevich was greeted at the Minsk train station late Saturday by hundreds of opposition activists who chanted "Hero."

He connected his release with the Belarusian government's need for credits to help it survive the economic downturn.

The EU and United States had set the freeing of political prisoners as a condition for easing economic sanctions and travel bans imposed on Belarusian officials

Lukashenko has been a mini-Vlad for a while now.  Perhaps a suitable bell-wether for the winds of change?

 
Interesting idea coming from the Estonian justice minister (Google English, from original in Russian):
The crimes of the Communist regime should be investigated as well as investigated the crimes of Nazism, but for this it is first necessary to establish the court, which would have the status of interstate body, said Justice Minister Urmas Reinsalu .... This proposal will be included in the agenda of the opening on Sunday in Tallinn International conference dedicated to the anniversary of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which will be attended by politicians and experts from many countries.  Reinsalu stressed that it is important to fulfill the promise to establish the 100th anniversary of the Estonian state in 2018 in Tallinn memorial to the victims of people who have been the victims of communism in Estonia. "We do not forget about the past. On the plaque to be recorded the names of all the repressed "- said the Minister ....
Notwithstanding how tough this would be, it would be interesting to see who was tried.  And if the Russians said, "hey, it wasn't our state," then they'd have to suck back a bit on stuff like this then, no?
 
Not really a problem if you got mouthpieces like Pravda at your side.  :blotto:

Reuters

Higher prices dent Putin's sky-high popularity: paper
Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:20am EDT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russians' concern about rising prices has eroded President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings but these remain extremely high, the daily Vedomosti reported on Friday.

It cited a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation as showing that 72 percent of Russians would have voted for Putin in August, down from 76 percent in May.

Another poll, by the Levada Center, showed that in August 83 percent of Russians approved of the President's actions, down from an all-time high of 89 percent in May.

The paper quoted experts as saying the fall reflected public dissatisfaction about prices during the summer, when many regulated prices such as utility and transport charges are raised.

(...SNIPPED)
 
Another poll, by the Levada Center, showed that in August 83 percent of Russians approved of the President's actions, down from an all-time high of 89 percent in May.
During his inauguration, President Obama was at 67%.  He is currently at 46%, according to Gallup

Just to put things into perspective is all.
 
Casualty figures from Ukraine were accidentally released (then hastily retracted) by the Russians. The amount of casualties is pretty steep considering the time frame and that this is supposed to be a "Hybrid war", where presumably the enemy will is crushed and most of the fighting and casualties are done by your sock puppet army rather than by you....

http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/26/russia-accidentally-reveals-its-massive-ukraine-body-count/

Russia Accidentally Reveals Its Massive Ukraine Body Count
Ivan Plis
Reporter, Daily Caller News Foundation
5:17 PM 08/26/2015

Though Russia denies official involvement in Ukraine’s civil war, a Russian news site briefly reported Russia’s huge military casualties in Ukraine Tuesday.

Buried in a mundane report on army salaries, Delovaya Zhizn (Business Life) noted that family compensation went to the families of 2,000 soldiers killed “taking part in military action in Ukraine.” The information was briefly online before Russian censors detected the fact and took it offline — but not before a Ukraine-based news site detected the admission and cached it online.

That some 2,000 Russian service members have died, all fighting a war that the Kremlin does not acknowledge exists, is a staggering admission of President Vladimir Putin’s commitment to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian war has lasted for exactly 18 months — by comparison, the U.S.’ nearly 14-year involvement in Afghanistan has claimed the lives of 2,154 American soldiers.

Besides the toll on Ukrainian and Russian fighters’ lives, the Russian intervention has also inflamed sanctions against Russia from European and North American governments. In response, Russia has embargoed food imports from a long list of Western countries, prompting a grocery crisis for Russian shoppers. (RELATED: Russian Muslims Traveling To Fight Against Russia’s Ukraine Invasion)

Forbes, which broke the story in English, pointed out that Putin recently declared all Russian military casualties, in wartime and peacetime alike, to be government-protected “state secrets.”

Boris Nemtsov, a former Russian lawmaker, was assassinated early this year while working on a report documenting Russian involvement in Ukraine. Besides suppressing the results of Nemtsov’s work, the Russian government has made efforts to downplay the investigation of the assassination. (RELATED: Russia Tries Every Tactic To Downplay Opposition Leader’s Murder)

In another sign of Putin’s stranglehold on information in Russia, Russian authorities moved on Monday to ban all of Wikipedia in the country — a move that was later walked back.

Follow Ivan Plis on Twitter

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/26/russia-accidentally-reveals-its-massive-ukraine-body-count/#ixzz3kDuhDxoC
 
Apparently Ukraine is not the safe and friendly vacation spot Russian Military travel agents have been making it out to be.
 
Meanwhile, in southwest Asia ....
Abdul Rashid Dostum, Afghanistan's vice president since 2014, asked Moscow to provide military assistance to Kabul in its fight against the Islamic State since the radical group is allegedly planning to carry out terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia, Pajhwok Afghan News reported.

The official, often described as one of the most powerful warlords in the country, wants Russia to supply armaments, military aircraft and helicopters ....
 
Thucydides said:
Casualty figures from Ukraine were accidentally released (then hastily retracted) by the Russians. The amount of casualties is pretty steep considering the time frame and that this is supposed to be a "Hybrid war", where presumably the enemy will is crushed and most of the fighting and casualties are done by your sock puppet army rather than by you....

http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/26/russia-accidentally-reveals-its-massive-ukraine-body-count/

Looks like army.ca becomes a collector of fake news.
Please provide links to reliable sources.
 
Flanker said:
Looks like army.ca becomes a collector of fake news.
Please provide links to reliable sources.

Вот! Этот интернет-ссылка должна быть по своему вкусу, да?

http://www.gazeta-pravda.ru
 
Good2Golf said:
Вот! Этот интернет-ссылка должна быть по своему вкусу, да?

http://www.gazeta-pravda.ru

Oh boy!  Guys, these cold-war stereotypes are funny.
Pravda is a marginal newspaper. Seriously.
Even at the time of Soviet Union wasn't considered a good source of info by most of people.
 
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