Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

[CougarKing]

Despite the recent loss of that Russian airliner over Egypt, at least one aerospace giant sees opportunity in the Middle East:

Reuters via Yahoo News

Russia Sukhoi plans to triple jets output by 2020 on Mideast demand

By Stanley Carvalho | Reuters –

DUBAI (Reuters) - Russia’s Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company, a maker of regional jets, plans to lift production more than three-fold by 2020, banking on demand from at least five Middle East customers, a senior executive said on Sunday.

Sukhoi is in talks with Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman for sales of its Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ 100), Evgeny Andrachnikov, senior vice president, told Reuters at the Dubai Airshow.

“By 2020, we will have critical mass of 200 aircraft (produced annually). We are in serious talks with many clients including in the Middle East with Egypt a big ticket game,” he said. Currently, Sukhoi’s production capacity is 60 jets annually.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[a_majoor]

Interesting; apparently a UUV with a nuclear warhead is either part of Russia's arsenal or under consideration:

http://voxday.blogspot.ca/2015/11/star-wars-worked.html

Star Wars worked

The good news is that the Strategic Defense Initiative appears to have worked well enough to deter potential enemies from planning to launch orbital missiles. The bad news is, there is a developing alternative to space-based attacks that even the U.S. Navy's superiority at sea can't do much about.

The Kremlin has confirmed “some secret data” was accidentally leaked when Russian TV stations broadcast material apparently showing blueprints from a nuclear torpedo, designed to be used against enemy coastal installations.

During President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with military officials in Sochi, where the development of Russia’s military capabilities were being discussed, a number of TV crews were able to capture footage of a paper that was certainly not meant for public viewing.

The presentation slide titled “Ocean Multipurpose System: Status-6” showed some drawings of a new nuclear submarine weapons system. It is apparently designed to bypass NATO radars and any existing missile defense systems, while also causing heavy damage to “important economic facilities” along the enemy’s coastal regions.

The footnote to the slide stated that Status-6 is intended to cause “assured unacceptable damage” to an adversary force. Its detonation “in the area of the enemy coast” would result in “extensive zones of radioactive contamination” that would ensure that the region would not be used for “military, economic, business or other activity” for a “long time.”

According to the blurred information provided in the slide, the system represents a massive torpedo, designated as “self-propelled underwater vehicle,” with a range of up to 10 thousand kilometers and capable of operating at a depth of up to 1,000 meters.
"Accidentally leaked." Right. Anyhow, this is particularly interesting because we had a submission for Riding the Red Horse vol. 2 that had to be withdrawn due to the fact that it was still under some sort of embargo by the naval service concerned. The torpedoes it described were not so massive, but they were fast and land-launched, and my impression was that they were designed to be used to deny control of the sea in places like the Persian Gulf, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

4GW isn't the only challenge facing the U.S. Armed Forces. The naval dominance enjoyed by the U.S. Navy since the dawn of the aircraft carrier is on the verge of ending, as the combination of aircraft-killing lasers and long-distance, land-launched torpedoes looks likely to render them as vulnerable, and therefore outdated, as battleships in WWII.

And since the United States is a maritime power, the loss of naval superiority necessarily means the loss of its superpower status.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I know hearty drinking is part of Slavic stereotyping, but it looks like certain alcohol issues haven't gone away completely yet ....

The Russian Investigative Committee suggests equating sales of fake alcohol with murder amid reports about dozens of people dying or being poisoned.

"We believe responsibility should be comparable with an intentional killing," its spokesman Vladimir Markin said on Tuesday, noting that at the moment responsibility was comparable rather to that for death inflicted through negligence.

"Thus the death of one person envisages the punishment of up to six years in prison, and up to ten years if two or more people die," he continued. "In our opinion, the person producing lethal alcoholic drinks is well aware of the social danger of his activity and possible consequences," Markin said.

"We must bear it in mind that alcohol consumption in Russia has mass proportions," he continued.

"By the present moment, methanol poisoning as a result of consumption of fake alcohol has been fixed already in six regions of the Russian Federation," Markin said, mentioning the Krasnoyarsk region, the republic of Chuvashia, as well as the Orenburg, Kursk, Moscow and Kaluga regions.

Dozens of people have died or have been poisoned, he said. "One cannot be certain that the list of regions registering new victims of deadly ‘booze’ will not grow," he added. Twelve people have recently died after drinking fake alcohol alone in the Far Eastern Krasnoyarsk region.

Fifteen people died in poisoning from fake alcohol in Russian regions between November 9 and 23, the state Investigative Committee’s spokesman said on November 23.

Vladimir Markin said 10 others had been taken to hospital with poisoning. Most victims bought the drink online, he added ....

Ouch!

If you're interested, here's some info about the drinking habits of some of the Soviet troops in Afghainstan - mmmmm, shoe polish on bread .....

 

[CougarKing]

The rift in Russia-Turkey relations caused by the Su24 shootdown is also having ripple effects on Central Asian states that have Turkic roots and were former Soviet satellites.

Diplomat

A Tangled Web: Russia, Turkey and Central Asia

Moscow’s displeasure with Ankara is trickling into Central Asia, but to varying degrees in each capital.
Putz_Catherine
By Catherine Putz
December 04, 2015


Turkey has long been a second-tier power in Central Asia. The recent tensions between Russia and Turkey do put the region in an awkward spot, but Turkish-Central Asian dealings have never had the high profile of Russian or Chinese regional engagement. The Russia-Turkey tension will trickle into Central Asia — and already has — but will be exhibited in different ways in each state.

Last year (almost exactly), Ryskeldi Satke, Casey Michel, and Sertaç Korkmaz wrote a piece for The Diplomat exploring the region’s ‘Turkic Togetherness.’ They highlighted several areas of engagement — Turkish-funded schools, the creation of the Turkic Council, defense-related cooperation (mostly training exchanges and military aid) — but ultimately concluded that Ankara had been noticeably reticent in developing ties with Central Asian states. “Still,” they wrote, “even though progress can be seen in certain avenues, Turkish-Central Asian relations fall far short of their original promise.”

In the last year Turkish-Central Asian relations have progressed in the same tentative manner, with Turkey playing the proverbial second fiddle to Russia’s overpowering social and cultural influence and Beijing’s big spending. The Turkic Council (members: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey) and its constituent bodies continue to meet and make progress in trade and investment arenas anyway, as well as with cultural initiatives. The Turkic Parliamentary Assembly (TurkPA) convened in Astana this week. In August, information and media officials from the member countries mutually endorsed the idea of a international Turkic news network.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

The posturing between Turkey and Russia continues:

Defense News

Sources: Ankara Summons Russian Envoy Over Soldier Brandishing Weapon On Warship
Agence France-Presse 6:58 p.m. EST December 7, 2015

ISTANBUL — Turkey on Monday summoned Russia's ambassador to Ankara over images of a Russian serviceman brandishing a rocket launcher as his warship navigated through Turkish waters, foreign ministry sources said.

Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov was summoned to the foreign ministry headquarters over the images published by the Turkish media on Sunday, the sources said, the latest escalation of tensions following Turkey's downing of a Russian warplane last month.

"Our expectation that such acts, which are against the spirit of international laws and not directly related to the passage (of the ship) itself, will not be repeated, has been emphasized."

(...SNIPPED)

NTV reported that the vessel from the Russian navy's Black Sea fleet passed through the Bosphorus on Sunday morning. However, the foreign ministry sources said the incident occurred on Friday.

Moscow and Ankara are locked in their worst crisis since the Cold War over the Nov. 24 jet downing on Turkey's border with Syria, sparking fury and economic sanctions from the Kremlin.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The posturing between Turkey and Russia continues ...

Meanwhile, from the RUS Info-machine/RUS state media ....

Before Su-24 downing Putin personally apologized to Erdogan over previous airspace violation

Prior to the downing of the Su-24, Russian President Vladimir Putin had personally apologized to Turkey’s Erdogan for the previous violation of Turkish airspace by a Russian aircraft, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated.

In an interview with Italian journalists, Lavrov said that Russia sees no other reason behind the incident with its Su-24 other than an attempt by Turkey to undermine anti-terrorism efforts or even derail the political process in Syria, which has begun to take shape on the basis of the Vienna agreement.

“Our assessment of what happened on November 24 remains completely the same. We see no other explanation other than a desire to disrupt counterterrorism efforts and make them less effective, or to prevent the Russian Federation from working in Syrian airspace, or perhaps even to derail the political process beginning to take shape on the basis of the Vienna agreement.” ...

Elsewhere, the "Pokey, pokey, pokey" game continues ...

• "Finland Accuses Russia of Violating Airspace"
• "Russian military aircraft made 266 'blind' flights near Estonia this year "
• "Georgia accuses Russia of violating its airspace"

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

If that is not done on purpose, they seriously have to consider firing the head of their Air Nav school, and completely reviewing its curriculum. [:-[ 

 

[The Bread Guy]

If that is not done on purpose, they seriously have to consider firing the head of their Air Nav school, and completely reviewing its curriculum. [:-[

If this is what happens to political opponents in Russia, methinks navigation errors would have been dealt with pretty briskly -- either that, or Vlad hasn't apologized to all those other places yet  ;D

 

[Kirkhill]

How about the Quartermaster General or Master of the Ordnance that allows his troops to go on foreign vacations with their cannons and tanks?

 

[McG]

That guy even covers the cost of ammo consumed on vacation.  Troops must love him.

 

[The Bread Guy]

This, from the RUS MoD Info-machine ...

On December 13, 2015, the Russian guard ship Smetlivy staying 22 km far from the Lemnos Island in the northern part of the Aegean Sea prevented the collision with a Turkish seine vessel.

At 9:03 (MSK), watchmen detected the Turkish vessel at the distance of 1 000 metres approaching the anchored guard ship Smetlivy from the starboard.

Despite multiple efforts of the Smetlivy to establish a contact with the Turkish seine vessel, its crew did not respond to radio and semaphore signals as well as signal rockets.

After the distance between the Turkish seine vessel the Russian guard ship reached 600 metres, the naval small arms were used at the distance of guaranteed survivability of the target in order to prevent the collision of the ships.

Immediately after that, the Turkish vessel changed the heading and continued movement at the distance of 540 metres without contacting the Russian crew ...

MSM versions:

• "Russian destroyer fires warning shots at Turkish fishing boat on collision course in Aegean " (RT Russian state media)
• "Russia fires Turkey boat warning shot" (BBC)
• "Russian Destroyer Wards Off Turkish Fishing Ship in Aegean" (Associated Press)
• "Russia says fired warning shots at Turkish ship in Aegean to avoid collision"(Reuters)

More on Smetlivy (usual Wikipedia caveats apply) here.

 

[tomahawk6]

Very professional way to deal with the seiner.The safety of the warship is paramount.BZ to the Russian captain

 

[Good2Golf]

Very professional way to deal with the seiner.The safety of the warship is paramount.BZ to the Russian captain

Concur.

In an unknown situation, the Captain of the Smetlivy kept his ship from becoming a Russian 'USS Cole.'  :nod: 

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Or, alternatively, he avoided a collision with yet another fisherman who put his ship on "cruise control" and went below to sleep, eat, or at the stern to deal with the fishing gear, oblivious to anybody else out there " 'cause i'm a fisherman and it's for everybody else to leave me in peace".

 

[The Bread Guy]

Or, as satirical Putin on Twitter puts it ...

The Russian Navy is as accurate as the Russian Air Force. We were shooting *at* the fishing vessel and missed by 600m.

Dealing with an earlier question ...

Although if the Russian Air Force bombed within 600m of the intended target the pilot would either get fired or promoted.

 

[a_majoor]

More people finally recognizing the real target of the Saudi Arabia oil war: Iran and its enablers (Russia) and allies (Syria). It is estimated Saudi Arabia can afford to continue its social welfare spending for the next five years before their bank account runs dry (possibly longer, as they are still making *some* money by pumping oil), while Russia claims to be able to sustain itself for at least seven years. I think both sides have cooked the books, so time will tell:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12046185/russia-opec-saudi-arabia-bluff-40-oil-price.html

Russia plans $40 a barrel oil for next seven years as Saudi showdown intensifies
'We will live in a different reality,' said a top Kremlin official. The message is aimed squarely at Saudi Arabia in a war for market share

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard3:43PM GMT 11 Dec 2015 Comments1777 Comments

Russia is battening down the hatches for a Biblical collapse in oil revenues, warning that crude prices could stay as low as $40 a barrel for another seven years.

Maxim Oreshkin, the deputy finance minister, said the country is drawing up plans based on a price band fluctuating between $40 to $60 as far out as 2022, a scenario that would have devastating implications for Opec.

It would also spell disaster for the North Sea producers, Brazil’s off-shore projects, and heavily indebted Western producers. “We will live in a different reality,” he told a breakfast forum hosted by Russian newspaper Vedomosti.

The cold blast from Moscow came as US crude plunged to $35.56, pummelled by continuing fall-out from the acrimonious Organisaton of Petrol Exporting Countries meeting last week. Record short positions by hedge funds have amplified the effect.

Bank of America said there was now the risk of “full-blown price war” within Opec itself as Saudi Arabia and Iran fight out a bitter strategic rivalry through the oil market.

Brent crude fell to $37.41, even though demand is growing briskly. It is the lowest since the depths of the Lehman crisis in early 2009. But this time it is a 'positive supply shock', and therefore beneficial for the world economy as a whole.

The International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report that Opec has stopped operating as a cartel and is “pumping at will”, aiming to drive out rivals at whatever cost to its own members. Opec revenues will fall to $400bn (£263bn) this year if current prices persist, down from $1.2 trillion in 2012. This is a massive shift in global wealth.

The IEA said global oil stocks were already at nose-bleed levels of 2,971m barrels, and were likely to increase by another 300m over the next six months as “free-wheeling Opec policy” floods the market.

The watchdog played down fears that the world was running out of sites to store the glut, citing 230m barrels of new storage coming on stream. Inventories in the US are still only at 70pc capacity. But this could change once Iranian crude comes on stream later next year.

Russia’s $40 warning is the latest escalation in a game of strategic brinkmanship between the Kremlin and Saudi Arabia, already at daggers drawn over Syria.

The Russian contingency plans convey a clear message to Riyadh and to Opec’s high command that the country can withstand very low oil prices indefinitely, thanks to a floating rouble that protects the internal budget.

Saudi Arabia is trapped by a fixed exchange peg, forcing it to bleed foreign reserves to cover a budget deficit running at 20pc of GDP.

Russia claims to have the strategic depth to sit out a long siege. It is pursuing an import-substitution policy to revive its industrial and engineering core. It can ultimately feed itself. The Gulf Opec states are one-trick ponies by comparison.

The deputy premier, Arkady Dvorkovich, told The Telegraph in September that Opec will be forced to change tack. “At some point it is likely that they are going to have to change policy. They can last a few months, to a couple of years," he said.
Kremlin officials suspect that the aim of Saudi policy is to force Russia to the negotiating table, compelling it join Opec in a super-cartel controlling half the world’s production.

Abdallah Salem el-Badri, Opec’s chief, came close to admitting this last week, saying the cartel is no longer big enough to act alone and will not cut output unless non-Opec producers chip in.

“We are looking for negotiations with non-Opec, and trying to reach a collective effort. Everybody is trying to digest how they can do it,” he said

Russia is in effect calling Opec’s bluff, gambling that it has the greater staying power. It cannot easily cut output since its main producers are listed companies, answerable to shareholders. Any arrangement would have to be subtle.

Mr Dvorkovich gave an oblique answer when asked whether Russia would ever do a deal. "We are not going to cut supply artificially. Oil companies will act on their own. They will look at market forces and decide whether to invest more or less. If prices stay low, it is in the nature of oil companies to stabilize production, or even to cut production," he said.

Whether Russia really can withstand the strain for years is an open question. The economy is in deep recession. Output has contracted by 4pc over the last year. Real incomes have fallen by 9pc. The latest gambit may in reality be a negotiating ploy.

Mr Oreshkin said oil prices of $40 would force the government to bleed its reserve fund by 1.5 trillion roubles next year, or 2pc of GDP.
Standard & Poor's says the budget deficit has reached 4.4pc of GDP, including local government shortfalls. A further $40bn is needed to bail out the banking system.

“They just don’t have the money. The deficit is heading for 5pc of GDP,” said Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit.
“The biggest danger is that the reserve fund will be exhausted by the end of 2016. They will then have to monetise the deficit or cut real spending by another 10pc. They can’t cut defence so that leaves social welfare,” he said.

Bond markets in Russia are shallow. The country cannot hope to borrow abroad on any scale as long as it is under Western sanctions.
Saudi Arabia’s leaders are fully aware of the Kremlin’s painful predicament. They appear certain that they can outlast Russia in a long duel. By the time we find out which of these two petro-giants is stronger, both may be on their knees.

 

[CougarKing]

Putin praising a future presidential rival?

CNN

Putin praises 'bright and talented' Trump


By Jeremy Diamond and Greg Botelho, CNN

Updated 11:35 AM ET, Thu December 17, 2015

(...FULL VIDEO REPORT AT LINK ABOVE)

 

[Kirkhill]

Putin praising a future presidential rival?

CNN

Putin doing his duty as a KGB officer.  Sowing dissent in order to disrupt.  He knows what he knows and is good at it.

 

[a_majoor]

Interesting (if really huge) info graphic comparing the navy of the Soviet Union to that of today's Russian navy. Click on link to see graphic:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a18668/soviet-navy-vs-modern-day-russia-infographic/

The Soviet Navy Vs. Modern Day Russia's in One Graphic
It was a whole lot bigger.


Contemporary Issues & Geography
By Eric Limer
Dec 21, 2015

In 1990, just before the fall of the Soviet Union, the Red Fleet was big, made up of over 600 ships spread out over dozens of different classes. But here in 2015, 25 years later, the Russian Navy is a fraction of its forebear's size with under 200 ships. This lovely little graphic really illustrates how big of a difference that is.

Made by Louis Martin-Vézian of Contemporary Issues and Geography—the same minds behind those graphics about Air Force Planes—this all-encompassing graphic shows the total inventory of the Red Fleet and the modern Russian Navy side by side, dispensing with that pesky quarter century in between:


Contemporary Issues and Geography
(You can look at the giant, full-res version here)

You might think that one of the reasons for the big shrink was that many of the Soviet ships floated off to other nations following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but in fact Russia took virtually the whole fleet. The problem was a steep drop-off in funding that made maintenance of the former Red Fleet a total nightmare. So expansion was brought to a complete halt while many existing ships were scrapped or retired to bases to live out their lives as floating barracks.

Unfotunately the folks at Contemporary Issues and Geography aren't selling prints of this poster, so the ghost of Soviet naval might will have to live in your web browser, though you can pick of up a print of the US Navy's Air Arm if that floats your boat. Or floats some 600 of them, if you happen to be the Red Fleet.

 

[tomahawk6]

ONI report on Russian naval capabilities.Essentially the report states that the Russian Navy can deny access to the Black Sea and Baltic Sea.Flip side is that the Turks or the US could put a cork in the bottle called the Black Sea.The link also has a similar report on the PLAN.Some good reading for a slow weekend. :camo:

http://news.usni.org/2015/12/18/document-office-of-naval-intelligence-report-on-russian-navy