Replacing the Subs

[Stoker]

I tend to doubt acoustic mines would be an option in peacetime. But UAS systems, and shore based batteries could easily launch a strike quickly.

Well given we have a fairly decent net in the Atlantic, I don’t think that it would be too hard to have surveillance a significant area of the Canadian Arctic in that manner. Even if you just you have entrance and egress points from channels - you would know a fairly detailed area of where a subsurface asset had gone and while you may not have a current track, they’d been within a fairly small box.

If tensions were high, I would assume that there would be assets on short notice to move or on station that could bring systems to bear very rapidly.

Worse case it’s ~3,000miles from Trenton to the furthest part in the Arctic Ocean of Canadian territory. Which would be a 5hr 30min flight for a P-8A (including 2 aerial refueling ‘stops’ the second unnecessary unless one wanted more then just several hours on station) with a full stores load.
* I picked Trenton as it’s about as far away as possible - Comox or Greenwoood are ~2,500 miles for worse case range requirements

You can program acoustic mines to only go after certain acoustic signatures. Armed AUV's is another option.

 

[KevinB]

You can program acoustic mines to only go after certain acoustic signatures. Armed AUV's is another option.

Learn something new everyday. I thought that was just for TV BS.
But I tend to doubt the GoC’s willingness outside of a shooting war to Mine Canadian Waterways regardless of the ability for target discrimination.
*edit I’d like to say I’m all for it though.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I tend to doubt acoustic mines would be an option in peacetime. But UAS systems, and shore based batteries could easily launch a strike quickly.

Well given we have a fairly decent net in the Atlantic, I don’t think that it would be too hard to have surveillance a significant area of the Canadian Arctic in that manner. Even if you just you have entrance and egress points from channels - you would know a fairly detailed area of where a subsurface asset had gone and while you may not have a current track, they’d been within a fairly small box.

If tensions were high, I would assume that there would be assets on short notice to move or on station that could bring systems to bear very rapidly.

Worse case it’s ~3,000miles from Trenton to the furthest part in the Arctic Ocean of Canadian territory. Which would be a 5hr 30min flight for a P-8A (including 2 aerial refueling ‘stops’ the second unnecessary unless one wanted more then just several hours on station) with a full stores load.
* I picked Trenton as it’s about as far away as possible - Comox or Greenwoood are ~2,500 miles for worse case range requirements

Assuming 4 hrs on station, you need 6 aircraft to maintain a contact for 24 hrs and that's assuming the sub is happy with you tracking it and not trying to evade, which I suspects causes the aircraft to conduct maneuvers and expend sonabouys, which I suspect impact endurance.

 

[Stoker]

Learn something new everyday. I thought that was just for TV BS.
But I tend to doubt the GoC’s willingness outside of a shooting war to Mine Canadian Waterways regardless of the ability for target discrimination.
*edit I’d like to say I’m all for it though.

For sure but there are options. If the maritime picture deteriorated to the point where we had to act might as well have those tools available. My recent deployments with NATO certainly brought home the fact that other countries have modern naval mines and are willing to use them to restrict waterways.

 

[KevinB]

Assuming 4 hrs on station, you need 6 aircraft to maintain a contact for 24 hrs and that's assuming the sub is happy with you tracking it and not trying to evade, which I suspects causes the aircraft to conduct maneuvers and expend sonabouys, which I suspect impact endurance.

There is no real evading if they are in an inland channel - for open water occurring events Alaska has multiple bases with runways for P-8A’s for the West Coast there is also Thule on the East, assuming one wanted to continue prosecuting the sub, you cut down the travel time to inside 2hrs from those spots.
It would be nice if Canada would put a base somewhere like Ft Ross Nunavut, with both a deep water port and an airfield that is centrally located.

 

[Stoker]

There is no real evading if they are in an inland channel - for open water occurring events Alaska has multiple bases with runways for P-8A’s for the West Coast there is also Thule on the East, assuming one wanted to continue prosecuting the sub, you cut down the travel time to inside 2hrs from those spots.
It would be nice if Canada would put a base somewhere like Ft Ross Nunavut, with both a deep water port and an airfield that is centrally located.

Iqaluit can certainly operate P8's and they have a new deep water port that can be expanded for a naval station.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm all for increasing military capabilities in the Arctic, but I also strongly feel that a far better way to secure our sovereignty in the North is to expand our civil infrastructure and presence.

Government services, law enforcement, environmental regulation enforcement, CCG patrols, resource development, navigational aids, health care facilities, airports and sea ports, etc. that are there year round are what establish our sovereignty. Periodic presence by the CAF simply enforce our sovereignty.

Ink blot method without the insurgents.

 

[Underway]

The worst part of the problem with charts and it speaks volumes. Is that for the best charts of our Arctic waters you have two choices the American Petroleum Institute and the Russians.

This is pretty much just internet short hand for "Canada doesn't pay attention to the arctic" instead of being factual. API doesn't do navigation worthy surveys. Not acurate enough even if they were in the arctic. And the Russians have very likely never ever gone through the NW passage in a submarine as it's opposite their doctrine and to dangerous. Especially before the arctic started its crazy warming cycle.

 

[Kirkhill]

Ink blot method without the insurgents.

Pre-emptive action / reconciliation.

 

[KevinB]

And the Russians have very likely never ever gone through the NW passage in a submarine as it's opposite their doctrine and to dangerous. Especially before the arctic started its crazy warming cycle.

Well the suspicious fire at the Pin-3 site suggests they probably do that and more.

 

[GR66]

Well the suspicious fire at the Pin-3 site suggests they probably do that and more.

View attachment 78580
View attachment 78581View attachment 78582

Do you have any sources indicating that Russian sabotage is suspected in that fire?

Not many articles on the fire show up in a quick Google search. The fire is mentioned here and here, but nothing suggesting sabotage.

That being said, absolutely we should be closely monitoring the entrance and exit points from the NWP both for surface and subsurface traffic (military and otherwise). You can't control what you can't see.

 

[Good2Golf]

Do you have any sources indicating that Russian sabotage is suspected in that fire?

Not many articles on the fire show up in a quick Google search. The fire is mentioned here and here, but nothing suggesting sabotage.

That being said, absolutely we should be closely monitoring the entrance and exit points from the NWP both for surface and subsurface traffic (military and otherwise). You can't control what you can't see.

My read of the coverage at the time was Canada whistling past the graveyard. Hard to find now, but a remember in the early days of the Internet an assessment that muted even a generator fire should not have spread as extensively as it did, and was isolated enough from the radar structure that the linkage of fire from the supposed source should not practically have reached the radar system destroying it.

 

[GR66]

My read of the coverage at the time was Canada whistling past the graveyard. Hard to find now, but a remember in the early days of the Internet an assessment that muted even a generator fire should not have spread as extensively as it did, and was isolated enough from the radar structure that the linkage of fire from the supposed source should not practically have reached the radar system destroying it.

hey...who knows, but does seem like a bit of a strange play by the Russians during their difficult economic times at the turn of the century and while their military is occupied by the 2nd Chechen War. Most of their fleet was in pretty bad shape at the time (the Kursk disaster was just a few months later). All through the most tense periods of the Cold War they resist attacks on the North American homeland but they decide to do a single raid in 2000? To what effect? I'm skeptical.

 

[Good2Golf]

To what effect? I'm skeptical.

Russians russing…

 

[GR66]

Russians russing…

 

[KevinB]

hey...who knows, but does seem like a bit of a strange play by the Russians during their difficult economic times at the turn of the century and while their military is occupied by the 2nd Chechen War.

The Army was occupied. The Navy and other parts of the Government was looking for something to show success.

Most of their fleet was in pretty bad shape at the time (the Kursk disaster was just a few months later).

Their sub feet is generally in best shape, with the SSBN’s being the highest priority item.

All through the most tense periods of the Cold War they resist attacks on the North American homeland but they decide to do a single raid in 2000? To what effect? I'm skeptical.

Ok while it seems odd on the face.
Several aspects of the fire point to outside sources.

The scope of the fire was way beyond what the remote unit generator could have caused.
There isn’t a lot of stuff on line - but there is a layout and the CBC new report about the winds going NE which would be away from the rest of the site…

Site: PIN-3 | The DEWLine

lswilson.dewlineadventures.com

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/defence-department-will-investigate-fire-at-radar-site-1.226761

Fire at PIN-3, January 2000

Damage to the site doesn’t make sense unless it was a deliberate act. I can’t find any OS reports on the result of the investigation(a)

Jan 2000 wasn’t exactly a great time in relations.

Russia's National Security Concept | Arms Control Association

www.armscontrol.org

Just prior to the Pin-3 fire Putin had dialed up rhetoric and posture against the West.

Russian have repeatedly made territorial incursions by air and sea into Canada’s (and others) territory.

It was one of several old DEW sites that became remote only stations.


The beach is 1/4 of a Mile from an easily accessible location for a sub to surface
The beach is under 1mile from relatively deep water (600ft and greater).

Militarily, it is an easy target and readily accessible by a sub launched team - either a long swim from a sub surface lock out, or a quick surface and disembarking an inflatable or swimmers -



Now assuming the Russians did put a team in to Pin-3, either for sabotage or an intelligence gathering mission perhaps the fire was an accident, or intentional to cover up something else.

I have little faith in the Russians, but perhaps some folks from Kugluktuk snowmobiled 100km to the site got drunk and burned it and went home…

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A video on the SK KSS-III

 

[Kirkhill]

The USN wants proposals on its desk for commercial XLUUVs no later than July 28th ie IN TWO WEEKS!

Defense Innovation Unit joins Navy's hunt for a new large undersea drone - Breaking Defense

DIU is looking for information by the end of this month and plans to host demos soon thereafter.

breakingdefense.com

This after cancelling their own long running XLUUV project in April - three months ago.

Navy cancels 'Snakehead' large undersea drone competition after decade of development - Breaking Defense

The Navy may be left with a large gap in its family of UUVs at a time the service leaders say they are ready to integrate the technology more deeply into the fleet.

breakingdefense.com

Something's up?

Concurrent release of non-news - 2 out of 5 subs not ready for sea.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/politics/us-attack-submarines-repair/index.html

I assume, from these threads that fleet readiness of 60% is average to good.
But the "news" may serve to inform the public that they don't have as many subs as they think they have.
Something must be done.

Perhaps a UOR for XLUUVs is in the works?

 

[KevinB]

The USN wants proposals on its desk for commercial XLUUVs no later than July 28th ie IN TWO WEEKS!

Defense Innovation Unit joins Navy's hunt for a new large undersea drone - Breaking Defense

DIU is looking for information by the end of this month and plans to host demos soon thereafter.

breakingdefense.com

This after cancelling their own long running XLUUV project in April - three months ago.

Navy cancels 'Snakehead' large undersea drone competition after decade of development - Breaking Defense

The Navy may be left with a large gap in its family of UUVs at a time the service leaders say they are ready to integrate the technology more deeply into the fleet.

breakingdefense.com

Something's up?

Concurrent release of non-news - 2 out of 5 subs not ready for sea.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/politics/us-attack-submarines-repair/index.html

I assume, from these threads that fleet readiness of 60% is average to good.
But the "news" may serve to inform the public that they don't have as many subs as they think they have.
Something must be done.

Perhaps a UOR for XLUUVs is in the works?

Undersea Warfare is a pretty close hold world.
But a lot of industry has been working on projects.

 

[childs56]

makes you wonder, it is well known that Russia liked to practice breaking through through the ice to launch missiles.

Maps suggest Soviet subs cruised Canadian Arctic

<p>The old Soviet Union may have been just as familiar with Canada's Arctic waters as Canadians.</p>

www.thespec.com