Presidential election may be up for grabs

[GAP]

Hillary wants the nomination so bad she will do/scheme/backstab/whatever to get it....Obama is going flat, but McCain isn't doing much better....he needs to light a fire under his ass and become coherent...

 

[a_majoor]

In a rather bizzare Canadian counterpoint, we see the NDP (a violently Anti-American party) debating changing their name to the Democratic Party, and now the Liberals are apparently debating timing a fall election for Nov in an attempt to rub off a bit of that Obama glow.

It must be nice to belive in a universe where everything moves on crystal spheres in serene and predictable epicycles. I will probably bust a gut if the Liberals pull the plug in time to discover the Clinton faction is indeed forcing a vote on the convention floor, and laugh even harder if the Democratic Party (USA) goes into a violent internal struggle during the election campaign allowing John McCain to win the Presidency. Getting that Obama bounce will be a bit of a chore, eh?

 

[geo]

I hope the NDP does change it's name to the Democratic Party
Their logo will look like a mule (just like the Dems)
But, we'll just call it a "Jack-ass"  >

Purrrr-fect

 

[tomahawk6]

An interesting development Obama has dual citizenship since 1963 in the US and Kenya.However Kenya doesnt recognize dual citizenship which may exlain why Obama has never provided a birth certificate.This situation I am sure is very much to Hillary's advantage.

 

[CougarKing]

A trend that should not be ignored?
http://www.military.com/news/article/military-donations-favoring-obama.html?col=1186032310810&wh=news

Military Donations Favoring Obama
August 15, 2008
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - U.S. Soldiers have donated more presidential campaign money to Democrat Barack Obama than to Republican John McCain, a reversal of previous White House campaigns in which military donations tended to favor Republicans, a nonpartisan group reported Aug. 14.

Troops serving abroad have given nearly six times as much money to Obama's presidential campaign as they have to McCain's, the Center for Responsive Politics said.

The results also are striking because they favored Obama, who has never served in the military. McCain meanwhile, is a decorated war veteran who spent nearly five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. The Arizona senator graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy and had a 22-year career as a naval aviator.

Obama has opposed the war in Iraq and says he would withdraw combat troops within 16 months. McCain has been a steadfast supporter of the war, saying he would withdraw the troops only when conditions on the ground warrant it.

"Obama will work tirelessly to uphold this nation's sacred trust with its veterans, to ensure they are not forgotten after they return home and he will provide our troops with the leadership they deserve, as well as the support they and their families need," Obama spokesman Nick Shapiro said.

McCain's campaign played down the significance of the donations.

"John McCain has been endorsed by more retired admirals and generals than Barack Obama has military donors," McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb said in a statement.

"We feel confident that many U.S. troops stationed overseas will support John McCain in the election this fall, but we suspect most are too busy doing the important work of defending this country than to make political contributions," Goldfarb said.

The report tracked donations of $200 or more. It found that 859 members of the military donated a total of $335,536 to Obama. McCain received $280,513 from 558 military donors.

Among Soldiers serving overseas at the time of their donations, 134 gave a total of $60,642 to Obama while 26 gave a total of $10,665 to McCain. That was less than the amount received by Republican Ron Paul, who collected $45,512 from 99 Soldiers serving abroad, the report said.

 

[tomahawk6]

Its their right to support the candidate of their choice. If Colin Powell can support Obama they surely can. What is scary is the number of people that will vote for the man simply because of skin color rather than his policies. His policies if enacted will weaken the country.

 

[Adamant]

An interesting development Obama has dual citizenship since 1963 in the US and Kenya.However Kenya doesnt recognize dual citizenship which may exlain why Obama has never provided a birth certificate.This situation I am sure is very much to Hillary's advantage.

Mr. Obama is a  US citizen, only.  He was born in Hawaii.  If you want to be picky, Mr. McCain was born in Panama, albeit on a US Military base, Funny there are no rumours that he has dual US - Panama citizenship.

Kenya does not recognize any dual citizenship, one MUST be a NATURAL BORN U.S. citizen to be president, the Democratic party (Democratic Rules Committee) would have amply checked (especially if there was actually any doubt, which I would suspect there wasn't) that he is CONSTITUTIONALLY QUALIFIED to be president before allowing him to run.  

Come on now...

 

[tomahawk6]

Obama's defense plans. As for Obama's birth certificate he can make his public and scuttle the questions about his citizenship. Maybe he's the real Manchurian candidate ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs&eurl=

I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems.

...I will not weaponize space.

...I will slow development of future combat systems.

...and I will institute an independent "Defense Priorities Board" to ensure the quadrennial defense review is not used to justify unnecessary spending.

...I will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons.

...and to seek that goal, I will not develop nuclear weapons.

...I will seek a global ban on the production of fissile material.

...and I will negotiate with Russia to take our ICBMs off hair-trigger alert.

...and to achieve deep cuts in our nuclear arsenals.

 

[a_majoor]

As fall approaches, voters will begin really looking for answers:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/us/politics/17elect.html?_r=4&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Seeing Tougher Race, Allies Ask Obama to Make ‘Hope’ Specific

Jens Meyer/Associated Press
Opinion about Barack Obama’s address to a huge gathering in Berlin last month has been divided, mainly along party lines.

These Democrats — 15 governors, members of Congress and state party leaders — say Mr. Obama has yet to convert his popularity among many Americans into solutions to crucial electoral challenges: showing ownership of an issue, like economic stewardship or national security; winning over supporters of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton; and minimizing his race and experience level as concerns for voters.

Mr. Obama has run for the last 18 months as the candidate of hope. Yet party leaders — while enthusiastic about Mr. Obama and his state-by-state campaign operations — say he must do more to convince the many undecided Democrats and independents that he would address their financial anxieties rather than run, by and large, as an agent of change — given that change, they note, is not an issue.

“I particularly hope he strengthens his economic message — even Senator Obama can speak more clearly and specifically about the kitchen-table, bread-and-butter issues like high energy costs,” said Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio. “It’s fine to tell people about hope and change, but you have to have plenty of concrete, pragmatic ideas that bring hope and change to life.”

Or, in the blunter words of Gov. Phil Bredesen, Democrat of Tennessee: “Instead of giving big speeches at big stadiums, he needs to give straight-up 10-word answers to people at Wal-Mart about how he would improve their lives.”

Obama advisers say he has made significant headway defining his positions on issues like tougher trade policies, the links between new energy sources and job creation and projecting American leadership abroad. At the same time, his trip last month to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe helped reassure voters about his experience, they said, and his agreement to a roll-call vote on Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy at the convention should bring her disappointed supporters into the fold.

Moreover, the Obama campaign has started running negative advertisements against Mr. McCain in battleground states — often without announcing them beforehand. The reason, Obama aides say, is to try to convince voters that Mr. McCain is barely different than President Bush through a day or two of uncontested advertisements — until the Republicans learn about them and begin to counter the ads.

Yet these advisers also acknowledge that the Obama phenomenon — the candidacy that helped inspire record voter registrations and turnout during the primaries — has come down to earth in a divided, economically stressed nation. Even though political analysts say that the economic conditions favor the Democrats in this election, and Mr. Bush’s unpopularity could hurt Republicans, Mr. Obama has not broken away from Mr. McCain in polling — a reflection, in part, of the huge numbers of undecided voters across party lines.

“Democrats should take a deep breath and realize that there are a group of voters who won’t make up their mind about a candidate until deep in the fall,” said David Plouffe, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager. “And there are 18 states that are battlegrounds for a reason, and they’ll be decided by 2 to 4 points. I don’t care about national polls.”

A New York Times/CBS News poll last month found the race between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain to be a statistical dead heat, not unlike where Senator John Kerry and Mr. Bush stood in a Times/CBS News poll in July 2004. The poll four years ago was conducted after Mr. Kerry, the Democratic nominee, picked Senator John Edwards as his running mate, yet before both the party conventions and the most intense period of political attacks on Mr. Kerry’s war service record as skipper of a Swift boat in Vietnam.

The McCain campaign has sought to turn Mr. Obama’s celebrity against him by portraying the freshman senator as out of his depth in crises like Russia’s invasion of Georgia. As Mr. Obama was in Hawaii last week, Mr. McCain presented himself as a man-at-the-ready, opining daily about Russia, as well as repeatedly invoking action verbs like “drill” in pledging to address high fuel prices.

To a considerable extent, political analysts say, the closeness of the race at this stage reflects the fact that many voters are not paying attention to it, after the long, wearying primary season. Many Democrats pointed to the election of 1980 when voters, choosing between a relatively inexperienced former governor, Ronald Reagan, and an unpopular incumbent, Jimmy Carter, finally flocked to Mr. Reagan at the end after resolving whatever qualms they had about him.

But some Republicans disputed that analogy, saying the difficulty Mr. Obama faces getting traction in public opinion polls reflects the country’s reservations about this relative newcomer to national politics — both because he has little experience in national security but also, inevitably, because of his race.

“I think Senator Obama is a motivational speaker, but at the end of the day I don’t think that will translate into votes, and certainly not the image of strength that Ronald Reagan had,” said Jim Greer, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party.

“Florida has not yet been locked down by either candidate, or all but won by either candidate, but I think Obama’s inability to prove his experience or prove that he owns a political issue far more than McCain is a real problem for him,” Mr. Greer said.

In response, several Democrats said that choosing a seasoned party leader as his running mate would help Mr. Obama in the fall if he is unable to fully allay voters’ uncertainty that a one-term senator is ready for the presidency.

“The one area he still needs credibility in is experience, and picking an Evan Bayh or a Joe Biden as vice president would help a lot with that,” said John B. Breaux, a former Democratic senator from Louisiana. “It wouldn’t be bad if he came out early and said who his secretary of defense and secretary of state would be — that would address and stabilize the concerns about his experience.”

Mr. Obama and his aides made several strategic decisions this summer that had clear payoffs, yet also carried some risks that could play out in the general election.

He quit the public campaign finance system and built a formidable bank account for his campaign, while the Clintons and their supporters still smarted from her loss and grew frustrated that he did not do more to help pay down her campaign debt. He traveled overseas for a week, and was widely praised for his statesmanlike bearing, yet Republicans derided him as vainglorious for holding a huge rally in Berlin. And while Mr. Obama kept a low profile during his Hawaiian vacation, Mr. McCain sought to burnish his image on national security by responding to the Georgian crisis.

Some Democrats said Mr. Obama must still demonstrate that he would be a more effective president than Mr. McCain, and that he could unite the Democratic Party before its convention. Jane Kidd, the party leader in Georgia — where Mr. Obama is hoping black support will help him succeed where other northern Democratic nominees have failed — said Mr. Obama had a good deal more work to do to win over Clinton supporters as well as white voters who are loath to support a black candidate.

“In rural parts of Georgia and the South, there is still some fear about people who look different from themselves,” Ms. Kidd said. “And there’s also healing left to do among women who wanted to see the day that a woman was elected president,”

Mr. Bredesen, of Tennessee, said that while the Democrats had little chance of carrying his state — the Obama camp is sending Mr. Bredesen to campaign in other states — Mr. Obama could still take steps to appeal to undecided Democrats there that might increase his chances elsewhere.

“I would really like to see him do things in Tennessee that would help in other working-class and blue-collar places, like Ohio,” Mr. Bredesen said. “Job security and health care are huge here. He needs to come to the aisle of Home Depot and show them that a Harvard graduate — which I am as well — knows how to help them.”

Gov. Bill Ritter of Colorado, the host of next week’s Democratic National Convention, said Mr. Obama needed to hone and amplify his plan to create more jobs if he wants to woo undecided independent voters, who make up the largest bloc of the electorate in the swing state.

“His message is the right one, but he needs to turn up the volume and sharpen it a bit because these are voters who care a great, great deal about the future of the economy,” Mr. Ritter said. “He has to convince them he is ready for that huge task.”

 

[CougarKing]

Looks like that Clinton won't be getting the VP spot if Obama gets the nomination.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/18/vp.picks/index.html

Analysis: Countdown is on for Obama's VP announcement

Democratic convention starts next week; VP candidate speaks Wednesday

Barack Obama campaigning with Bill Richardson, Tim Kaine this week

Evan Bayh, Joe Biden also considered top contenders

John McCain has more time to make his pick -- GOP convention is in two weeks

(CNN) -- With the Democratic convention just a week away, the countdown is on for Sen. Barack Obama to make his VP announcement.

While there is a chance Obama could wait until the convention to announce his pick, he's expected to end the guessing game this week.

Obama's campaign says that when the senator from Illinois makes up his mind, an alert will be sent to supporters via e-mail and text messages.

The presumptive Democratic nominee hasn't dropped any hints about who's on his shortlist, but several people stand out as likely contenders for the No. 2 spot.

Obama on Monday is campaigning in New Mexico, Gov. Bill Richardson's home state. Richardson is considered a good pick because he could help bring in support from the Latino community.

But Richardson didn't endorse Obama until late in the game, and he didn't get very far in his own White House run.

Also in the spotlight is Sen. Joe Biden. He returns Monday from a trip to the former Soviet republic of Georgia, made at the request of the country's president.

Biden, a senator from Delaware and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, brings to the table top-notch experience that would help counter GOP arguments that Obama is inexperienced on foreign policy.

But Biden's state has just three electoral votes, which are safely in the Democrats' column.

Biden, Richardson and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh are scheduled to speak at the Democratic convention next Wednesday -- the same night that the vice presidential candidate is slated to speak. Watch more on Obama's process for making his decision »

A former governor, Bayh is a Midwest moderate and a popular figure in Indiana, a Republican stronghold. His service on the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees could help shore up Obama's weak spots.

Some liberals, however, could have a tough time with Bayh because of his support for a ban on "partial-birth" abortions, a term that some abortion rights opponents use to refer to a type of late-term abortion.

Another contender, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, has yet to receive a speaking slot at the convention. Obama also has events scheduled in Virginia on Wednesday and Thursday.

Kaine could help Virginia fall in the Democrats' column for the first time in 44 years, but the Virginia governor would not bring much foreign policy experience to the table.

Plus, another Virginian -- former governor and Senate candidate Mark Warner -- is the keynote speaker Tuesday night. Virginia will be a major battleground come November, but would the Democrats pick Virginians to headline back-to-back nights at the convention?

The VP buzz has dwindled for some others who were once considered top contenders. iReport.com: Who would you pick as VP?

Hillary Clinton is likely to place her name in nomination, and she's set to give a speech on the second night of the convention. While the schedule could always change, it's not likely that she'll be Obama's pick.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has been rumored to be a potential pick, but if Obama chooses a woman, and it's not Clinton, he could burn bridges with his former rival's supporters. She's also on the schedule for a Tuesday night speech.

Obama could always throw out a surprise -- retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, Texas Rep. Chet Edwards, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell all stand a chance to be a dark horse pick.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Sen. John McCain still has some time before he needs to announce his pick. The Republican convention is the week following the Democratic convention.

Likely contenders for McCain's No. 2 spot include Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Democrats meet August 25-28 in Denver, Colorado, and the Republicans convene September 1-4 in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota.

CNN's Alan Silverleib contributed to this report.

 

[a_majoor]

This is a very tight race, so the VP pick will be cruicial. For various reasons I don't believe that Senator Obama will choose Senator Clinton for VP, similarly I suspect many of the people being touted for Republican VP are more a reflection of the pundits hopes and dreams (personally, I would have said Secretary of State Condelezza Rice would be the killer choice, but that's just me...)

http://darrylwolkpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/08/conventions-could-be-disaster-for-both.html

Conventions could be a disaster for both Obama and McCain


Starting this Monday, the real election kicks off in the US as both parties are due to hold their conventions. While everything will be tightly scripted with both parties trying to demonstrate unity and enthusiasm; there is potential on both sides to host a disaster based on who they choose as their running mates.

Rumors are that this Saturday, Obama will finally send out his text message announcing his choice for VP. He will then appear with that candidate in Springfield, IL at an event two days before the Democratic convention. In contrast, August 29 is rumored to be the day that McCain will select his running mate. Both candidates have the potential to divide their party with the choices they might make.

In the case of the Democrats, a long primary has highlighted the division between former Clinton supporters and Obama supporters within the Democratic Party. If Obama picks a running mate other than Hillary Clinton, many people are likely to be disappointed with the media doing everything they can to highlight division at the convention among Hillary's supporters. With polls so tight (yesterday's actually showing for the first time a McCain victory) some have speculated that Hillary should be the only choice Obama should be considering for the sake of unity within the party and also to improve the chances that most of Hillary's 18 million supporters will show up and vote for Obama. If he picks Hillary Clinton, issues associated with unity, appeal to Latino, Catholic, Blue Collar and women demographics combined with Hillary's 50 state organization could drastically improve his chances to win the White House. Polls taken siting Hillary as a running mate have consistently shown a bump in Obama's numbers. Hillary and Bill Clinton also offer the chance to shore up Obama's inexperience, an argument that has worked well against him in both the Democratic primaries and in McCain's current campaign message. If Obama selects someone other than Hillary on Saturday, he could face weeks of justifying his pick over Hillary in the media and within his own party throwing off his campaign message. With Hillary's name in nomination, one has to wonder if in the event she is not selected as Obama's VP, will her supporters show up in Denver disenfranchised and cause problems at least in terms of the optics of unity. If Obama picks someone other than Hillary, that person is going to be constantly compared to Clinton and if polls take a dive, people are going to question why he didn't put his ego aside and go with the "dream ticket". All indications are Joe Biden is most likely to be Obama's choice. If that happens (or worse if someone like Kathleen Sebelius is selected), this convention risks division and as a result could prove to be a failure or disaster. On the flip side, picking Hillary could prove to be a huge success for Obama. New interest and enthusiasm could likely be added to his campaign. Optics would show a united party. The event would close with Al Gore and Obama speaking in front of 70,000 in Denver. Is picking someone else worth the risk? Ralph Nader is predicting Hillary Clinton will be Obama's surprise choice and if that happens expect Democrats to truly get fired up. On the flip side, if he goes with someone like Tim Kaine, it is hard to see how such an unknown name would draw any kind of excitement or approval from grassroots supporters.

In the case of Republicans, John McCain already is going to have a problem with unity when he shows up in Minnesota. Ron Paul is holding his "rally for the Republic" and could draw attention away from McCain should a large and loud group of enthusiastic young people show up to the event. Paul has a loyal and enthusiastic following. The optics of his rival convention could provide a stark contrast to the official Republican convention where there is potential that McCain's VP pick could divide the party and fuel further unrest with core Conservative voters. Rumor has it that McCain's team is floating key pro-choice advocates Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman as potential VP picks. Both would slap the Evangelical movement in the face and create a revolt from core Conservatives already not fully satisfied with McCain's track record and candidacy. Some pundits argue, that leaking Lieberman or Ridge is a way to pave the way for Mitt Romney. While Romney was once pro-choice, he is now pro-life. Romney is crucial for McCain on the economy, but his own prospects have been a source of concern among social Conservatives (see Huckabee's comments). Perhaps leaking Lieberman and Ridge is a good way to make Romney's candidacy more accepted by the Evangelical base. Now is not the time for McCain to play his maverick side. He needs a safe Conservative pick or he could face a major split in his movement and kill all the momentum he has gained in recent weeks. With Obama speaking in front of 70,000 people in a swing state, optics will be poor for McCain unless he can demonstrate some enthusiasm and unity among his own supporters. Two bad scenarios for McCain would be a selecting a pro-choice running mate or in the unlikely event that Ron Paul draws a larger and more enthusiastic crowd in Minnesota.

With such a short time before the election, mistakes could have a huge impact on the outcome. Within days we will see the VP picks of both candidates. Those picks are going to set the stage for the conventions. The outcomes of the conventions will determine who has momentum in the race for president. There isn't much time to reverse momentum or any potential errors as people pay more attention following the summer and voters begin to make up their minds for good. If either side is thinking of taking a big risk (McCain selecting a pro-choice candidate/Obama picking someone other than Hillary) they should think twice.

This will be a great week for anyone following the US election closely. Does anyone out there have any opinions on who McCain or Obama should pick as their running mate?

Thanks for reading...

 

[tomahawk6]

To be honest I cannot remember an election where the VP made a difference. Obama is going to pick a white guy.McCain is doing well at this point but if he picks the wrong guy as his running mate his gains may vanish overnight.By wrong I mean a democrat or former democrat,or someone with pro abortion views.I think he will pick Ron Paul[not my choice] but thats just me.

 

[CougarKing]

To be honest I cannot remember an election where the VP made a difference. Obama is going to pick a white guy.McCain is doing well at this point but if he picks the wrong guy as his running mate his gains may vanish overnight.By wrong I mean a democrat or former democrat,or someone with pro abortion views.I think he will pick Ron Paul[not my choice] but thats just me.

I really doubt it will be Ron Paul, seeing how he and his supporters will be holding their own seperate convention during the GOP convention on September, but in the same city, and only a few blocks away from the main GOP venue, IIRC.

Ron Paul is too Libertarian in his thinking, and it is a little surprisng that he hasn't joined his friend Bob Barr with the Libertarian party.

 

[tomahawk6]

Senator Joe Biden will be Obama's VP nominee.He is getting a Secret Service detail.I dont see this selection as helpful to Obama's cause. Biden loves the spotlight and is prone to gaffe's.

 

[tomahawk6]

Clinton supporter Phil Berg has filed for an injunction to block Obama's candidacy.Essentially he is contending that Obama isnt a natural born citizen.Might be an interesting week ahead of us.

Document here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2066207/posts

 

[KevinB]

Biden, geez Osama shot himself with that one...

Change - hahahaa

 

[Kirkhill]

Clinton supporter Phil Berg has filed for an injunction to block Obama's candidacy.Essentially he is contending that Obama isnt a natural born citizen.Might be an interesting week ahead of us.

Document here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2066207/posts

From the filing:

......Obama's birth is reported as occurring at two (2) separate hospitals, Kapiolani Hospital and Queens Hospital. Wikipedia English Version under the subject "Barack Obama".....

Ohhhh Dearrr.  Will we have to reconsider OUR standards of proof??

 

[TheHead]

Biden, geez Osama shot himself with that one...

Change - hahahaa

With all due respect why would you call Obama, Osama?

 

[dapaterson]

"Why I Will Not Vote for John McCain" - by a classmate at the naval academy, who was also a POW in Vietnam with McCain - for 2 1/2 years longer.

http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,164859,00.html

 

[GAP]

It sounds like he has his own agenda, and it has nothing to do with the Republicans.....