Personalities aside.... a good thing for the CAF?

[rnkelly]

View attachment 84435

We’re already doing things against ‘our’ (PM & friends’) will (F35, NASAMS, P-8A, soon E-7….etc) and that’s under a Democrat administration.

For the OP’s hypothesis, I’d wager the CAF will keep on receiving things that the GoC ‘decides’ to provide them…TBH no matter who POTUS 47 is.

Wrong thread but noticed you snuck in E7 with the word “soon”. To me, it’s the single most interesting part of the DPU but I can’t get over the $307M allocated. Curious how it’ll unfold.

Good points by all, carry on.

 

[jackamela]

I was on topic, my dude. You asked, I answered.

Except I'm here debating politics, so no; I am exactly where I shall be.

Personalities dictate policies and working relationships between countries. Thats diplomacy. In turn, believing for a moment that personalities and politics will not have an impact on how the CAF is affected in a "New" presidency, you're either naive, uninformed, or guillable. But you do you.


Glad thats what you're asking for. I provided that in my response. The fact you cannot distill or comprehend it from my posts, I haven't the time or inclination to spell it out for you.

I think you have totally missed the point.

There is nothing particularly insightful in your response, so there is nothing that needs spelling out - certainly not 'distilling'. I understand exactly what you wrote - it just isn't relevant to the question asked.

If you want to rant on political personalities, I suggest you start your own thread.

I'm interested solely in what, if any, knock on effects people think there might on the CAF if the US has a new President after December.

 

[Good2Golf]

Wrong thread but noticed you snuck in E7 with the word “soon”. To me, it’s the single most interesting part of the DPU but I can’t get over the $307M allocated. Curious how it’ll unfold.

Good points by all, carry on.

Although to be honest, rnkelly, I’m not sure it’s a done deal just because it’s in the DPU, but it does fit reasonably into the idea of continental defence modernization, so there’s that.

 

[GR66]

Wrong thread but noticed you snuck in E7 with the word “soon”. To me, it’s the single most interesting part of the DPU but I can’t get over the $307M allocated. Curious how it’ll unfold.

Good points by all, carry on.

Yeah, I think people are making a pretty huge leap from $307 million over 20 years for "Airborne Early Warning Aircraft" to us buying E-7's. The UK is looking at 630 million pounds for each of their Wedgetails (that's over $1 billion Canadian each).

Maybe it's for support and crew contributions to US E-7's operating in support of NORAD operations rather than for Canadian aircraft?

Heck it could even be for something like the Crowsnest AEW system that the RN mounts on their Merlin helicopters.

 

[ModlrMike]

I think Poilievre may emulate Trump's style of politics, but I do not foresee them sharing the same kind of political ideals.

Trump is a charlatan and a crook. He is a megalomaniac who craves the Presidency to fulfil his delusions of grandeur. Poilievre, on the surface, is someone who actually understands what being the Head of Government means and how it impacts the country he represents.

I think it would be just as hostile and frigid if the CPC is in the hot seat with a Trump presidency. Best case scenario is a Biden/Poilievre partnership based in mutual respect and a desire to work together.

The irony is that the Conservatives are ideologically closer to the Democrats than the current Liberals are.

 

[CBH99]

I like the spirit of this thread - although it's trickier than I expected to share an opinion on the next POTUS's influence on the CAF without also at least partially sharing one's opinion on the POTUS himself!

I think it's safe to say that if Trump does become President again, it wouldn't affect our timelines or budgets in a negative way...

Even if our baseline budget doesn't increase, there will undoubtedly be an expectation to provide some core capabilities in support of NORAD & NATO - and that expectation could be quite beneficial in getting certain things online sooner/faster than turn glacial pace Canadian procurement seems to run at...



The bigger picture reality, in my opinion, is that Canada as a whole is represented by leaders who are far too stupid to recognize the potential opportunities that are before us, or could be before us, as a country.

Having Trudeau making insulting and misleading comments about Trump (done recently) isn't going to help our position at all when it comes to trade or negotiating economic opportunities.

With our current leadership, I don't see any widespread economic growth coming anytime soon. Without a major shift in our intention as a country & the corresponding economic policies that actually support economic growth, we won't/can't be investing a whole lot more in the CAF regardless of who is POTUS.



(Finding efficiencies in procurement, rolling out of new kit, recruiting & training efficiencies, as well as making smarter investments in military housing could help us get more bang for our buck & help us produce a better product while not requiring a budget increase)

 

[jackamela]

I like the spirit of this thread - although it's trickier than I expected to share an opinion on the next POTUS's influence on the CAF without also at least partially sharing one's opinion on the POTUS himself!

I think it's safe to say that if Trump does become President again, it wouldn't affect our timelines or budgets in a negative way...

Even if our baseline budget doesn't increase, there will undoubtedly be an expectation to provide some core capabilities in support of NORAD & NATO - and that expectation could be quite beneficial in getting certain things online sooner/faster than turn glacial pace Canadian procurement seems to run at...



The bigger picture reality, in my opinion, is that Canada as a whole is represented by leaders who are far too stupid to recognize the potential opportunities that are before us, or could be before us, as a country.

Having Trudeau making insulting and misleading comments about Trump (done recently) isn't going to help our position at all when it comes to trade or negotiating economic opportunities.

With our current leadership, I don't see any widespread economic growth coming anytime soon. Without a major shift in our intention as a country & the corresponding economic policies that actually support economic growth, we won't/can't be investing a whole lot more in the CAF regardless of who is POTUS.



(Finding efficiencies in procurement, rolling out of new kit, recruiting & training efficiencies, as well as making smarter investments in military housing could help us get more bang for our buck & help us produce a better product while not requiring a budget increase)

I think that is a very sound analysis. On the Canadian government side, the possible PP government is an unknown quantity - while the actual JT government is very much a known quantity.

The Liberals' inexplicable decision to pivot away from promoting domestic growth in theory means very little excess government spending can happen - and yet massive government spending has occurred, but with little real thought (in relative terms) for the CAF. I think Canada has enormous potential, with the right leadership.

My hunch is that the global chaos that has unfolded under the watch of the Biden Administration, assuming that it is followed by the wild unpredictability and demands (which may have some teeth) for increased military spend under a potential incoming Trump Administration has the potential to provide the CAF with the means and impetus to get closer to real military readiness than it has been in a long time.

I'm not at all sure whether a PP government would have appetite for increasing military spend - but my hunch is that a would insist on a much more efficient spend, and (if compelled by the deteriorating global scene) perhaps make some moves to improve retention and recruitment.

That is best case scenario - and coming from someone currently going through recruitment, so certainly no military expert.

I find the range of views on here very informative on the possible next 5 years of CAF readiness.

 

[CBH99]

I think that is a very sound analysis. On the Canadian government side, the possible PP government is an unknown quantity - while the actual JT government is very much a known quantity.

The Liberals' inexplicable decision to pivot away from promoting domestic growth in theory means very little excess government spending can happen - and yet massive government spending has occurred, but with little real thought (in relative terms) for the CAF. I think Canada has enormous potential, with the right leadership.

My hunch is that the global chaos that has unfolded under the watch of the Biden Administration, assuming that it is followed by the wild unpredictability and demands (which may have some teeth) for increased military spend under a potential incoming Trump Administration has the potential to provide the CAF with the means and impetus to get closer to real military readiness than it has been in a long time.

I'm not at all sure whether a PP government would have appetite for increasing military spend - but my hunch is that a would insist on a much more efficient spend, and (if compelled by the deteriorating global scene) perhaps make some moves to improve retention and recruitment.

That is best case scenario - and coming from someone currently going through recruitment, so certainly no military expert.

I find the range of views on here very informative on the possible next 5 years of CAF readiness.

Hopefully you get in soon & get a trade that you want! If you stick with it, your time in the military will give you as much as you give it - be competent & down to Earth, and you'll find plenty of unique opportunities.

In terms of CAF readiness over the next 5 years, I think it will really depend on how events unfold in regards to Russia & China.

I'm of the opinion (a very unpopular one) that NATO isn't exactly innocent when it comes to the events in Ukraine. Whether that escalates further or not remains to be seen, but I absolutely see it being possible.

Same with China & Taiwan...will China invade Taiwan like its always threatened to? If they are going to do so, they have a rapidly closing window in which to do it...

Or will they play the long game & get their own people in key government positions, and slowly manipulate the country into accepting things China wants without them really noticing? Like a multi-generational game plan?



Events will dictate what the CAF looks like in 5+ years. But with generational leaps coming online in terms of kit (CSC, MRTT, F-35, etc) we will be better contributors overall.

(I think the US has been twisting some arms behind the scenes as of late. Buying 9 MRTT is almost twice the capacity of our current fleet of 5 Polaris, 14 to 16 Poseidons, 88 replacement fighters, etc etc has all been pleasantly unexpected...)

 

[Brad Sallows]

The US president never cares very much about Canada. Worrying about what a president might do if his attention is somehow diverted away from Europe Africa Asia Mexico Russia China India Israel Iran ... is just a distraction from paying proper attention to what particular members of Congress will want to do, most of which will be related to trade issues regarding competition with enterprises in their home states.