Our North - SSE Policy Update Megathread

[Kirkhill]

Sweden goes all-in on NATO with new deployment proposal - Breaking Defense

"This is a historic decision," Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said at an event announcing the Swedish government's new plan.

breakingdefense.com

The proposal requests that the Riksdagen (the parliament) should green-light the government to be ready to roll out a beefy Swedish military force — up to 1,200 troops from ground, special ops, and amphibious units, plus six warships complete with crew, and a fleet of up to 24 fighter jets [AM1] (25 percent of the overall fighter fleet) — to back NATO deterrence operations in the North Atlantic, through the end of 2025.

To be clear, Sweden had already pledged a certain number of its forces towards NATO operations. For instance, it had planned to send up to 600 troops to Latvia as part of an alliance mission, side by side with the Danes under Canadian leadership. But today’s announcement would significantly boost the number of forces and materiel being planned for alliance missions.

Just looking at the Latvia mission, the new plan would call for the soldiers to expand up to 1,000, which would consist of “officers and full-time serving soldiers, so we’re not talking about conscripts here,” said Defense Minister Pål Jonson. And the operational area for those forces would extend into Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland.

Sweden

• 10.6 Mio People
• 623 BUSD GDP
• 58.5 KUSD GDP/Capita

 

[Kirkhill]

Assuming the threat justifies it, I assume anything's possible.

Now? No need beyond current commitments it seems....

See, even if I didn't plan to spend money this year I might be inclined to figure out how much money I might need to spend at some point in the future.

 

[McG]

Could you launch temporary FARPs to those locations out of the FOLs?

For rotary wing and STOLs? Hercs and C17s?

Alert already handles the C17s.

Shelter and AVGas and empty ammunition storage that could be filled in a crisis?

Points on the ground are not a supply chain. The challenge is delivering fuel to meet the real time consumption demands of sustained fighter operations in locations inaccessible to rail, highway, and sea.

 

[KevinB]

It was recently announced that those FOLs would be enhanced, and Goose Bay is now also considered a FOL. Those FOLs are generally 1,000 miles north of the RCAF fighter bases, so they are absolutely useful in pushing fighter range (and other assets) to the north. They have infrastructure and their capabilities get exercised (CF18s exercised at the Inuvik FOL this past summer).

I think that there can be diminishing marginal returns in northern basing as you get further north. Supplying Alert for current operations is already a major endeavor (BOX TOP).

Operations in the north (and even exercises are really operations) are all about sustainment. How do you get there, how do you survive/operate there (including getting around) without draining local resources. This gets done every year in all seasons (the shoulder seasons can be the toughest). Some of SSE the latest defence update talks about tactical helicopters for the north. There are also plans for Operational Support Hubs with dual-use infrastructure. Resolute Bay is our Arctic Training Centre, and like anywhere with shelter and a runway it can serve as a support hub (and most of the bulk supplies go in by ship in the summer) We have troops training/operating there primarily in the winter.

No disagreement with the above, but imagine if there was a slew more infrastructure up there and commercial interests that drove development as well.

Given the resources that Canada’s North has, it seems incredibly myopic to not develop the north.

Larger populations up north are also a sovereignty demonstration themselves.

 

[Good2Golf]

Fuel caches are a thing up north.

With qualification, yes. Not the days of old where there were red/yellow DND 55gal drums cached all over the North. Now it’s on permanent eco-friendly/preparded facilities, or come with an extensive set of requirements to set up hasty/temporary blivets of JP-8/8+100 including temporary berms to support containment in case of tank rupture.

 

[Kirkhill]

We are not alone.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/10/09/china_and_russia_expand_strategic_cooperation_in_arctic_against_west_1063936.html

Executive Summary:

• China and Russia have agreed to form a strategic partnership in the Arctic for economic development, exploitation of mineral resources, increased use of the Northern Sea Route, and military cooperation against the West.
• In response to the signing of this strategic partnership, Canada and the countries of Northern Europe have formed a new security alliance in the Arctic, thus setting the stage for heightened tensions in the region.
• The probability of open conflict with the West in the Arctic likely depends on which of the two allies is the dominant player, but tensions between them in the Arctic are certain to shake their broader alliance.

At the end of September, senior Chinese and Russian officials met in Beijing to discuss strengthening their bilateral cooperation in the Arctic under what they called “the new political conditions” to form “a comprehensive strategic partnership” to advance their joint interests (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, September 26). They agreed to form this partnership in the Arctic to develop the region economically, exploit mineral resources, and promote the use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), but also to cooperate against the West, a commitment that almost certainly involves a military component, although none was explicitly stated. A few days later, Canada announced it had formed a defense alliance with its fellow North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in northern Europe (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) to counter Chinese and Russian actions (Charter97, October 3). These two moves, the Chinese-Russian partnership and the NATO response, will intensify growing tensions in the Arctic and could lead to open conflict. Such a conflict, however, likely depends on whether Moscow or Beijing has the upper hand in its partnership, with Moscow ready to make sacrifices for short-term gains while Beijing focuses on long-term benefits.

Now both the US and the Scandinavians have direct interests in our defence of our arctic. As does the Inuit Circumpolar Council.

Inuit Circumpolar Council – United Voice of the Arctic

ICC is the body that represents all Inuit from Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Chukotka on matters of international importance.

www.inuitcircumpolar.com

United Voice of the Arctic​

Founded in 1977 by the late Eben Hopson of Barrow, Alaska, the Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC) has flourished and grown into a major international non-government organization representing approximately 180,000 Inuit of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Chukotka (Russia).

....

Genetic curiousity - The west coast tribes are more genetically similar to the Inuit, including the Inuit of Labrador than they are to the interior tribes of North America. They also have similarities that tie them to the Dene although they are separate.

 

[Kirkhill]

Points on the ground are not a supply chain. The challenge is delivering fuel to meet the real time consumption demands of sustained fighter operations in locations inaccessible to rail, highway, and sea.

Do those points on the ground have to host fighter operations? What about rotary wing operations? STOL operations? If FARPs can be established in deserts and jungles, on mountains and islands what would it take to create an enhanced FARP with permanent facilities that could be occasionally occupied to support operations. STOL craft these days, I believe, includes RPAS.

As for fighters, the fighters are well supported with the existing network of RCAF bases and FOLs, civil airports and the MRTT fleet.

I don't see a need to land fighters at Alert or Eureka. Resolute already supports commercial jet traffic as well as military operations.

....

I appreciate that we are not without capabilities in the North, and that we do exercise there. I just would like to see a greater emphasis on preparing for larger scale operations in the area. And I would like to see more co-operation with our Scandinavian neighbours as well as the Americans.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

No disagreement with the above, but imagine if there was a slew more infrastructure up there and commercial interests that drove development as well.

Given the resources that Canada’s North has, it seems incredibly myopic to not develop the north.

Larger populations up north are also a sovereignty demonstration themselves.

Our focus on the Arctic needs to be a "All of government approach"

 

[daftandbarmy]

Our focus on the Arctic needs to be a "All of government and Industry approach"

If we do it right, Industry will help out too.... and there's alot of Industry operating up there right now with more to come of course....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If we do it right, Industry will help out too.... and there's alot of Industry operating up there right now with more to come of course....

WAC Bennet saw that it was governments job to build the infrastructure and then industries can flourish. Not to many companies have the pockets to build 100's of km of road and powerlines.

 

[YZT580]

WAC Bennet saw that it was governments job to build the infrastructure and then industries can flourish. Not to many companies have the pockets to build 100's of km of road and powerlines.

better to construct rail or develop coastal ports. Those two AOPs that the ccg didn't want could be kept very busy

 

[Colin Parkinson]

better to construct rail or develop coastal ports. Those two AOPs that the ccg didn't want could be kept very busy

A lot of the rail lines in BC are owed to him

 

[KevinB]

If you want to go down a rabbit hole.

Rare earth elements facts

natural-resources.canada.ca

Global rare earth element occurrence database

This spatial database "usgs_Global_REE.gdb" was created for use in a geographic information system (GIS) to support research on global rare earth deposits and occurrences by the U.S. Geological Survey. This inventory documents the geologic occurrence of rare earths, including mineralogy, type of...

www.sciencebase.gov

Then start looking at what was found in the below

Critical Minerals in the EEZ | U.S. Geological Survey

For centuries, people have crossed oceans in search of valuable minerals. In recent times, though, increasing attention has been paid to the oceans themselves for their mineral potential, especially rock formations on the seafloor.

www.usgs.gov

Then at least from a US perspective to see what areas have been actually surveyed (and by what means).

Earth MRI Acquisitions Map

The Earth MRI acquisitions map provides you with contact and related information for Earth MRI funded data acquisition projects.

ngmdb.usgs.gov

In all likelihood the Canadian north has a lot more to offer than is even suspected at the current point in time.

 

[Kirkhill]

Once upon a time we were contemplating mining asteroids because of shortages.

Canada's Arctic and its waters are a lot more acessible.

 

[KevinB]

Canada's Arctic and its waters are a lot more accessible.

To anyone at this point...

Possession being 9/10ths of the law (armed possession is the other 10th...)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Almost got to visit Komakuk Beach just to the east of there. I had a file there involving the site cleanup, I had approval to do a site inspection, but it got cut during a departmental budget cut, mutter, mutter.

 

[Loachman]

With qualification, yes. Not the days of old where there were red/yellow DND 55gal drums cached all over the North. Now it’s on permanent eco-friendly/preparded facilities, or come with an extensive set of requirements to set up hasty/temporary blivets of JP-8/8+100 including temporary berms to support containment in case of tank rupture.

And every time that 1 Wing needed to use a fuel cache when I was in Ops there, the fuel hadn't been tested recently enough (sometimes a decade or so overdue) and a few crews had to wait several days for the single available civ Twotter to make a few round trips with a couple of barrels aboard each time.

And Griffon windscreens just love to crack in the North. Getting parts (even if the correct windshield is shipped the first time - the label on the outside of the box apparently does not always match the actual contents), tools, and techs to the right place can drag out, and there are almost no heated hangars in which to do the work - and the sealant absolutely needs to be kept warm enough to cure.

It took six weeks to get two 400 Squadron Griffons to alert one year. It was either frustratingly comical or comically frustrating. So many things went wrong.

The North is much bigger and unforgiving than most people are able to comprehend.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Once upon a time we were contemplating mining asteroids because of shortages.

Canada's Arctic and its waters are a lot more acessible.

And the reply is, " There's no business model for that."

 

[Furniture]

The North is much bigger and unforgiving than most people are able to comprehend.

100%

People can academically understand the North is large, but just like Europeans coming to Canada for the first time, they don't really understand it until they experience it. It's also a lot like the Pacific Ocean. You see it on a map and know it's big, but until you've sailed across it for weeks, you don't really get it.

 

[dapaterson]

100%

People can academically understand the North is large, but just like Europeans coming to Canada for the first time, they don't really understand it until they experience it.

You mean you can't do a weekend jaunt from Toronto to Vancouver in a rental car?