Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis

[MilEME09]

If the Russians try ti take Kharkov, it will be a blood bath. Ukraine will not willing let Russia take its heavy industry, including arms, and armoured vehicle manufacturing without a fight.

 

[medic5]

There seems to be a lot of satellite imagery of Russian units and Flankers just lined up on runways. If this was anything other than a show of force, would the Russians not conceal their movements and make use of their famed maskirovka?

 

[KevinB]

But would Putin care? Never underestimate the ego/ambitions of a megalomaniac.

Putin also knows he's viewed as a Military target - so assassination would be on the table.
We've got a pretty finely honed machine for that sort of stuff.

Putin is a survivor - right now he's gauging how much of a leash the West is on, and what the long term implications will be.
He wants to be "The GUY" who put Russia back on the map as a true super power and dominant force in Europe.

Secondly - remember neither the Chinese or Russians are allies - they'd just a soon stab the other in the back as us, if they felt it was in their best interests. The Chinese are long game players to an extent the West doesn't understand at all.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Maybe that is their maskirovka...or, the maskirovka is that they are wanting people to think that is their maskirovka...or...the maskirovka is that they are fooling people to think that they are fooling people to think that this is their maskirovka..or...

 

[Remius]

Maybe that is their maskirovka...or, the maskirovka is that they are wanting people to think that is their maskirovka...or...the maskirovka is that they are fooling people to think that they are fooling people to think that this is their maskirovka..or...

 

[daftandbarmy]

Putin also knows he's viewed as a Military target - so assassination would be on the table.
We've got a pretty finely honed machine for that sort of stuff.

Putin is a survivor - right now he's gauging how much of a leash the West is on, and what the long term implications will be.
He wants to be "The GUY" who put Russia back on the map as a true super power and dominant force in Europe.

Secondly - remember neither the Chinese or Russians are allies - they'd just a soon stab the other in the back as us, if they felt it was in their best interests. The Chinese are long game players to an extent the West doesn't understand at all.

Russia has a rickety economy and a ridiculously small GDP compared to its potential. No surprise why Putin is trying to focus attention elsewhere:

How Russia Makes Its Money​

Russia is more than twice as large as the contiguous 48 U.S. states, with an educated population and far more natural wealth than you’d expect to find in an area even as vast as 6.6 million square miles. Shouldn’t such a nation be the envy of the world, its undisputed superpower? Yet Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) only comes in at number 11 in the world, as of 2020.1

While the United States ranks as the world's largest economy with a GDP (current US$) of $20.9 trillion in 2020, Russia's nominal GDP comes in at $1.5 trillion.1 In terms of GDP, Russia trails much smaller countries, such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and France. This is far lower than the country's inputs—such as literacy levels and access to capital—would indicate. How then does Russia make its money, and why doesn’t it make more?

KEY TAKEAWAYS​

• In terms of gross domestic product (GDP), Russia trails much smaller countries with a nominal GDP of $1.5 trillion in 2020.
• Russia's economy is dependent on the export of oil and natural gas, both of which are under the control of the Russian government.
• This lack of economic diversification puts Russia at a disadvantage when demand for its energy products plummet, which then causes the Russian economy to contract.

Emerging Markets: The Parts of Russia’s GDP

Understanding the GDP composition of the world’s most expansive country, Russia, can help investors considering entering that market.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

Now this is an interesting read.

I will throw out a word of caution as I know nothing about this website, who funds it, supports it or what is its track record on neutrality in its reporting. It is called the 'Bulgarian Military' so it might be Russian leaning due to religious/cultural ties.

German media: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in three phases

German Bild reported on Saturday that it had learned the detailed plans for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defence24

bulgarianmilitary.com

1) In the first phase of the invasion, the southern part of Ukraine will be taken “both to secure supplies to Crimea and to cut Ukraine off from the sea and thus cut off supplies,

Russia plans to use landing ships transported from the Baltic Sea in the spring “to transport tanks and troops from Crimea to the outskirts of Odesa,​

in the region of Kherson will be carried out “air operations of Special Forces”, which will block the bridges over the Dnieper and thus cut off supplies to Ukrainians. ​

2) The second stage predicts that “in parallel with the first phase of the war, Putin’s air force and ballistic missiles will weaken Ukraine’s military potential throughout the country.”

Russian tank units could cross the border into Luhansk and Kharkiv regions and move to the cities of Dnipro and Poltava,” Bild reports. “First, they will surround the cities and cut off their electricity, gas, and food supplies. ​

3) In the third phase, the Russian army will advance from the north to Kyiv. “Of course, it could happen at the beginning of the war, if circumstances require it,” the source told Bild

If Belarus were to be prepared as the starting point for Russian or even Belarusian attacks, the Russian plan would be to encircle Kyiv from the northeast and northwest. Russian forces would then “march roughly to the Korosten-Uman line to cut off supplies from western Ukraine, and then wait for the capitulation of Kyiv and thus Ukraine under Western pressure.”​

​

German media: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in three phases

German Bild reported on Saturday that it had learned the detailed plans for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defence24

bulgarianmilitary.com

​

​

 

[MilEME09]

If that us true; either A. Russia leaked it on purpose as a decoy, or B. They have the worst OPSEC ever

 

[KevinB]

If that us true; either A. Russia leaked it on purpose as a decoy, or B. They have the worst OPSEC ever

C: 5I's have a lot capability than one is given credit for, and have kicked it out to NATO allies knowing it would leak...

 

[Czech_pivo]

C: 5I's have a lot capability than one is given credit for, and have kicked it out to NATO allies knowing it would leak...

I'm leaning towards this.

 

[Altair]

Now this is an interesting read.

I will throw out a word of caution as I know nothing about this website, who funds it, supports it or what is its track record on neutrality in its reporting. It is called the 'Bulgarian Military' so it might be Russian leaning due to religious/cultural ties.

German media: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in three phases

German Bild reported on Saturday that it had learned the detailed plans for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defence24

bulgarianmilitary.com

1) In the first phase of the invasion, the southern part of Ukraine will be taken “both to secure supplies to Crimea and to cut Ukraine off from the sea and thus cut off supplies,

Russia plans to use landing ships transported from the Baltic Sea in the spring “to transport tanks and troops from Crimea to the outskirts of Odesa,​

in the region of Kherson will be carried out “air operations of Special Forces”, which will block the bridges over the Dnieper and thus cut off supplies to Ukrainians. ​

2) The second stage predicts that “in parallel with the first phase of the war, Putin’s air force and ballistic missiles will weaken Ukraine’s military potential throughout the country.”

Russian tank units could cross the border into Luhansk and Kharkiv regions and move to the cities of Dnipro and Poltava,” Bild reports. “First, they will surround the cities and cut off their electricity, gas, and food supplies. ​

3) In the third phase, the Russian army will advance from the north to Kyiv. “Of course, it could happen at the beginning of the war, if circumstances require it,” the source told Bild

If Belarus were to be prepared as the starting point for Russian or even Belarusian attacks, the Russian plan would be to encircle Kyiv from the northeast and northwest. Russian forces would then “march roughly to the Korosten-Uman line to cut off supplies from western Ukraine, and then wait for the capitulation of Kyiv and thus Ukraine under Western pressure.”​

​

German media: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in three phases

German Bild reported on Saturday that it had learned the detailed plans for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defence24

bulgarianmilitary.com

​

​

I don't buy it.

Russia would need a hell of a lot more than 100k soldiers massed near the border to achieve those results. That's a lot of urban combat potentially slowing them down, a lot more points of potential failure.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don't buy it.

Russia would need a hell of a lot more than 100k soldiers massed near the border to achieve those results. That's a lot of urban combat potentially slowing them down, a lot more points of potential failure.

I don't see alot of urban combat, I see alot of encircling, cutting transport, gas, electricity and food supplies to large urban areas and then picking the fruit before it drops to the ground.

 

[Altair]

I don't see alot of urban combat, I see alot of encircling, cutting transport, gas, electricity and food supplies to large urban areas and then picking the fruit before it drops to the ground.

I suppose another factor is these sieges will take time.

The longer this goes on, the more international pressure comes down on Russia and the more weapons get handed to Ukraine.

If we see a continuous troop buildup between now and the end of January I would be way more convinced as to the validity of this leak, otherwise it's overly ambitious for the current troop numbers Russia is showing.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Russia has a rickety economy and a ridiculously small GDP compared to its potential. No surprise why Putin is trying to focus attention elsewhere:

How Russia Makes Its Money​

Russia is more than twice as large as the contiguous 48 U.S. states, with an educated population and far more natural wealth than you’d expect to find in an area even as vast as 6.6 million square miles. Shouldn’t such a nation be the envy of the world, its undisputed superpower? Yet Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) only comes in at number 11 in the world, as of 2020.1

While the United States ranks as the world's largest economy with a GDP (current US$) of $20.9 trillion in 2020, Russia's nominal GDP comes in at $1.5 trillion.1 In terms of GDP, Russia trails much smaller countries, such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and France. This is far lower than the country's inputs—such as literacy levels and access to capital—would indicate. How then does Russia make its money, and why doesn’t it make more?

KEY TAKEAWAYS​

• In terms of gross domestic product (GDP), Russia trails much smaller countries with a nominal GDP of $1.5 trillion in 2020.
• Russia's economy is dependent on the export of oil and natural gas, both of which are under the control of the Russian government.
• This lack of economic diversification puts Russia at a disadvantage when demand for its energy products plummet, which then causes the Russian economy to contract.

Emerging Markets: The Parts of Russia’s GDP

Understanding the GDP composition of the world’s most expansive country, Russia, can help investors considering entering that market.

www.investopedia.com

Prior to Covid, Russia became the world largest exporter of grains, surpassing Canada and the US, that's a far cry from the Soviet days of wondering if they can feed their people and having to import grain from their enemies.

 

[Altair]

Prior to Covid, Russia became the world largest exporter of grains, surpassing Canada and the US, that's a far cry from the Soviet days of wondering if they can feed their people and having to import grain from their enemies.

It's been that way for a couple of decades now, not the largest but definitely a large exporter.

If I remember correctly they had a once in a generation bad harvest in 2010 and banned the exports of grains for that year, which lead to food prices soaring in the middle east contributing to the Arab spring.

They are definitely more self sufficient.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Since we've not heard anything official from the White House Press Office 3hrs after the meeting concluded, I think that its safe to say that the phone lines between DC, Paris, London, Berlin and Rome are burning up.

There must be alot of back and forth in trying to either strong arm the Germans on sanctions against Nord Stream 2, getting agreement between DC/London and Paris/Berlin/Rome on what military actions to consider or trying to come up with a plan on how to sugar coat the bad news to Kiev....
Any other guesses?

 

[KevinB]

It's been that way for a couple of decades now, not the largest but definitely a large exporter.

If I remember correctly they had a once in a generation bad harvest in 2010 and banned the exports of grains for that year, which lead to food prices soaring in the middle east contributing to the Arab spring.

They are definitely more self sufficient.

Russia Exports

Exports in Russia decreased to 33692 USD Million in July from 35417 USD Million in June of 2024. This page provides - Russia Exports - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Interestingly enough they do appear to be the number #1 exporter in weight if not by dollar value of wheat in 2020-21.

Given the recent turnaround in exports from Russia - I would expect this to be sabre rattling, as Vlad knows that even if he succeeded in occupying the Ukraine, the economy would take another major hit as sanctioned and embargoes where levied.

 

[Altair]

Since we've not heard anything official from the White House Press Office 3hrs after the meeting concluded, I think that its safe to say that the phone lines between DC, Paris, London, Berlin and Rome are burning up.

There must be alot of back and forth in trying to either strong arm the Germans on sanctions against Nord Stream 2, getting agreement between DC/London and Paris/Berlin/Rome on what military actions to consider or trying to come up with a plan on how to sugar coat the bad news to Kiev....
Any other guesses?

Calls to Turkey about the Istanbul Canal as a sidestep to the Montreux Convention which will allow American military ships (other than missile cruisers) into the black sea.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Calls to Turkey about the Istanbul Canal as a sidestep to the Montreaux Convention which will allow American military ships (other than missile cruisers) into the black sea.

The Turks have taken a page out of Pakistan's playbook lately, playing both sides against each and flying close to the sun. Sooner or later their wings will melt.
It would take alot for arm twisting to get them to allow the above to happen, but anything is possible.

 

[Altair]

The Turks have taken a page out of Pakistan's playbook lately, playing both sides against each and flying close to the sun. Sooner or later their wings will melt.
It would take alot for arm twisting to get them to allow the above to happen, but anything is possible.

Ukraine might be the collateral damage from Turkey building the canal.

When the Canal is built, and the Canal isn't subject to the Montreux convention and NATO can start bringing in Aircraft carriers and other large military ships into the black sea without any limits, Russia might be feeling like now is the time to secure as much of the black sea coastline as possible, up to Odessa.

Russia may be angling to have the Montreux Convention apply to any and all entrances to the black sea, not just the Bosporus.