- Reaction score
- 26,544
- Points
- 1,090
The problem with stock cycling is that a pandemic, as a black swan event, requires vastly greater quantities than would normally be cycled through. Depot stocks could partially be distributed through life cycle, but holdings to address a national pandemic have to be significantly more than normal consumption - how large is an exercise in risk assessment and risk management.
I suspect that buried in PHAC briefings to various ministers was a note that the savings they were ordered to find in various government cutting exercises were increasing risk in the event of a national pandemic; but since the assessed risk was likely very low probability, but with extremely high impact (top left corner of the graph) it was accepted.
(For those interested in such things: GoC guide to risk management: https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/corporate/risk-management/guide-integrated-risk-management.html)
I suspect that buried in PHAC briefings to various ministers was a note that the savings they were ordered to find in various government cutting exercises were increasing risk in the event of a national pandemic; but since the assessed risk was likely very low probability, but with extremely high impact (top left corner of the graph) it was accepted.
(For those interested in such things: GoC guide to risk management: https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/corporate/risk-management/guide-integrated-risk-management.html)