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Ontario Majority Government 2022-2026 (?)


And heads will likely explode again as they try supporting Blue while they govern like Red lol.
I've never been against green power like wind farms. I was totally against the contracts that the Liberals were floating with developers that gave them exorbitant fees for the power that they generated. A reasonable and sustainable supply is a good idea. Personally, I'm a fan of cheep nuclear power to provide cheap power to our manufacturing sector to help boost industry as it did in the post WW2 era.

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I've never been against green power like wind farms. I was totally against the contracts that the Liberals were floating with developers that gave them exorbitant fees for the power that they generated. A reasonable and sustainable supply is a good idea. Personally, I'm a fan of cheep nuclear power to provide cheap power to our manufacturing sector to help boost industry as it did in the post WW2 era.

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AB and SK should be powerhouses of power, not powerhouses of O&G.

But Canada and Canadians are experts at missing opportunities.
 
I've never been against green power like wind farms. I was totally against the contracts that the Liberals were floating with developers that gave them exorbitant fees for the power that they generated. A reasonable and sustainable supply is a good idea. Personally, I'm a fan of cheep nuclear power to provide cheap power to our manufacturing sector to help boost industry as it did in the post WW2 era.

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blame that on the IESO that said it couldnt be done now wind and solar are the cheapest electricity out there and have been for some time
 
blame that on the IESO that said it couldnt be done now wind and solar are the cheapest electricity out there and have been for some time
Building and maintaining the infrastructure is a bit pricey but the rates paid were astronomical incentives.

I think that we're also missing the boat on hydro - both river systems and wave and tide generated. But all that said, SMRs are needed to a) replace older less efficient nuclear systems and b) provide for surge demand and the intermittent nature of renewable resource power generators (assuming storage of power at scale will remain an issue.)

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Building and maintaining the infrastructure is a bit pricey but the rates paid were astronomical incentives.

I think that we're also missing the boat on hydro - both river systems and wave and tide generated. But all that said, SMRs are needed to a) replace older less efficient nuclear systems and b) provide for surge demand and the intermittent nature of renewable resource power generators (assuming storage of power at scale will remain an issue.)

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I dont know what the FIT rates were but the micro FIT went from 80 cents to 80/40 roof/ground to eventually last I knew 40/20 for solar. Most of the issues seem to be Ontario issue or even N American. Right now solar and battery storage are kicking everything else so hard. Wind is a little behind
 
I dont know what the FIT rates were but the micro FIT went from 80 cents to 80/40 roof/ground to eventually last I knew 40/20 for solar. Most of the issues seem to be Ontario issue or even N American. Right now solar and battery storage are kicking everything else so hard. Wind is a little behind
My recollection is that back in the day many of the wind contracts went with a FIT of $0.80/kWH paid by Ontario Hydro One to wind power producers. OHO sold power to public consumers at $0.09 at the time (obviously there is a ton of subsidization here).

In 2016, the average costs per kWh to OHO overall broke down to: $0.06 for hydro electric; $0.07 for nuclear; $0.14 for wind; $0.17 for gas; and $0.48 for solar. Particularly problematic for Ontario is that it produces power in excess to what it needs' Since you can't store you either dump (pay producer to stop producing) or export. Because of competition, OHO sells its excess power for less than the cost of production - on average $0.015/kWh - and much, much more on clean energy. Based on clean energy cost, OHO lost between $350 - 570 million on exported clean energy in 2016.

The fact that OHO was losing more and more money on every new clean energy project that it had to incorporate into its system and that local demand was dropping leading to money losing exports is why the expansion of clean energy projects absolutely had to stop. There was, and continues to be, a need to reform the entire Ontario's energy structure.

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My recollection is that back in the day many of the wind contracts went with a FIT of $0.80/kWH paid by Ontario Hydro One to wind power producers. OHO sold power to public consumers at $0.09 at the time (obviously there is a ton of subsidization here).

In 2016, the average costs per kWh to OHO overall broke down to: $0.06 for hydro electric; $0.07 for nuclear; $0.14 for wind; $0.17 for gas; and $0.48 for solar. Particularly problematic for Ontario is that it produces power in excess to what it needs' Since you can't store you either dump (pay producer to stop producing) or export. Because of competition, OHO sells its excess power for less than the cost of production - on average $0.015/kWh - and much, much more on clean energy. Based on clean energy cost, OHO lost between $350 - 570 million on exported clean energy in 2016.

The fact that OHO was losing more and more money on every new clean energy project that it had to incorporate into its system and that local demand was dropping leading to money losing exports is why the expansion of clean energy projects absolutely had to stop. There was, and continues to be, a need to reform the entire Ontario's energy structure.

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I think the problem is that the numbers are probably all wrong and based on bad accounting after stripping debt out multiple times. The stranded debt is just the latest go around

How can the FIT for wind be 0.80 and 0.14 at the same time?

We have a immense naval gazing about this issue here

Solar and wind have been the cheapest power for many years now and even with storage costs today

The Darlington steering committee estimates at 0.163 now for nuclear while solar is 0.034 and wind 0.07
 
I think the problem is that the numbers are probably all wrong and based on bad accounting after stripping debt out multiple times. The stranded debt is just the latest go around

How can the FIT for wind be 0.80 and 0.14 at the same time?

We have a immense naval gazing about this issue here

Solar and wind have been the cheapest power for many years now and even with storage costs today

The Darlington steering committee estimates at 0.163 now for nuclear while solar is 0.034 and wind 0.07
All that I can rely on is the stats in different reports. The difference between $0.80 is what many of the FIT contracts were specifying for set years, while there is a lot of averaging etc going on with the $0.14 figure. I included those because it showed the relative costs as between the various sources in Ontario as of 2016.

I agree that wind and solar as sources are cheap (in fact wind and sun per se cost nothing) but once you take the contract price that OHO has to pay for it then it becomes more expensive than the cost to OHO to develop hydro projects and pay itself for the production. Energy from water is free too if you don't factor in the costs to capture it. Nuclear is similar as OHO generates it itself and doesn't have to pay a third party. For both Hydro and nuclear, most of OHO's capital costs have been paid off long ago.

The one thing that we haven't even begun to factor in yet is the costs of producing and deactivating millions of worn out wind turbines and solar panels filled with their numerous hazardous materials much less those associated with the storage batteries which are yet to come.

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All that I can rely on is the stats in different reports. The difference between $0.80 is what many of the FIT contracts were specifying for set years, while there is a lot of averaging etc going on with the $0.14 figure. I included those because it showed the relative costs as between the various sources in Ontario as of 2016.

I agree that wind and solar as sources are cheap (in fact wind and sun per se cost nothing) but once you take the contract price that OHO has to pay for it then it becomes more expensive than the cost to OHO to develop hydro projects and pay itself for the production. Energy from water is free too if you don't factor in the costs to capture it. Nuclear is similar as OHO generates it itself and doesn't have to pay a third party. For both Hydro and nuclear, most of OHO's capital costs have been paid off long ago.

The one thing that we haven't even begun to factor in yet is the costs of producing and deactivating millions of worn out wind turbines and solar panels filled with their numerous hazardous materials much less those associated with the storage batteries which are yet to come.

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Plus, solar and wind are not base load.
 
All that I can rely on is the stats in different reports. The difference between $0.80 is what many of the FIT contracts were specifying for set years, while there is a lot of averaging etc going on with the $0.14 figure. I included those because it showed the relative costs as between the various sources in Ontario as of 2016.

I agree that wind and solar as sources are cheap (in fact wind and sun per se cost nothing) but once you take the contract price that OHO has to pay for it then it becomes more expensive than the cost to OHO to develop hydro projects and pay itself for the production. Energy from water is free too if you don't factor in the costs to capture it. Nuclear is similar as OHO generates it itself and doesn't have to pay a third party. For both Hydro and nuclear, most of OHO's capital costs have been paid off long ago.

The one thing that we haven't even begun to factor in yet is the costs of producing and deactivating millions of worn out wind turbines and solar panels filled with their numerous hazardous materials much less those associated with the storage batteries which are yet to come.

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I dont think FIT was ever 80 cents microFIT was at the start but not for wind just for solar and then only for roof mounted. Wind and solar are that cheap now and yesterday those are signed contract rates for delivered. They are not more expensive in anyway unless you want to remain fixated on a failed program that Ontario Hydro-IESO sabotaged along with incompetent Liberal and now Tory governments

when you say OHO do you mean hydro one the distribution company or OPG Ontario Power Generation because they are two completely different entities. There have been multiple transfers of Ontario Hydro debt over the years the latest was the "stranded" the only reason it had to be treated differently was because the entity was broken up into 5 components. OPG is just the public generation corp responsible for the public power generation. It is a third party

by 2020 solar and wind were the clear winners over coal and in most cases NG we just backed out early no big deal I guess as China is there and we can slip back in without incurring any of the development costs
 
I've never been against green power like wind farms. I was totally against the contracts that the Liberals were floating with developers that gave them exorbitant fees for the power that they generated. A reasonable and sustainable supply is a good idea. Personally, I'm a fan of cheep nuclear power to provide cheap power to our manufacturing sector to help boost industry as it did in the post WW2 era.

🍻
I wish all the people that love wind power could come down to SW Ontario( the part on the other side of where Ontario stops) and see what an eyesore they are. Never mind the ecological damage they cause and the thousands of migratory birds at the base of these things.

 
I think that we're also missing the boat on hydro - both river systems and wave and tide generated. But all that said, SMRs are needed to a) replace older less efficient nuclear systems and b) provide for surge demand and the intermittent nature of renewable resource power generators (assuming storage of power at scale will remain an issue.)
According to this report from Ontario Power Generation in partnership with the Ontario Waterpower Association, there is between 3-4000Mw of remaining hydro-electric potential in Ontario. That's about the output of Bruce Nuclear. I think that is rather optimistic given factors such as remoteness, Provincial Parks and FN issues. Although it is 'clean', hydro-electric generation is not without its environmental impact.

You might be right about wave energy although I think it is still in its infancy. The Annapolis Tidal GS was shut down because it was chopping up fish, and the first demonstrator in-water tidal generator in the Bay of Fundy was torn apart by the flow.
 
when you say OHO do you mean hydro one the distribution company or OPG Ontario Power Generation
I mean both OHO and OPG.

I wish all the people that love wind power could come down to SW Ontario( the part on the other side of where Ontario stops) and see what an eyesore they are. Never mind the ecological damage they cause and the thousands of migratory birds at the base of these things.
I lived on Lake Erie near Blenheim for five years with a turbine 500m and a few feet from my house. Frankly it didn't bother me either with the view (I looked to the lake and not the fields behind me) or any sound and, sad to say, I think the death of flying dinosaur descendants isn't as big a matter as it's made out to be (I'm a bit of a Darwinist in that respect).

I'll concede though that it is a big NIMBY issue and I don't minimize the fact that for many people it is a very real and very major issue. You certainly don't see any turbines near Queen's Park or out in the water in front of Ontario Place. It's the urban dwellers that have never touched a turbine or seen it in the wild who are their biggest fans. and who give little thought to the folks who live on the farms and towns of SW Ontario.

As I alluded to above, it was the runaway over supply of very expensive contracts that concerned me and not the concept of wind power generation itself. It was an unsustainable Wynn attempt to look Green to the Toronto masses without consideration of all the downstream effects that concerned me. She hid the true cost of power in subsidies for years. They still do. I believe water, wind, solar and nuclear should form the basis of our power generating sources with a full move away from coal and gas. How those four are balanced into a cost effective sustainable industry is the challenge that Wynn failed to consider and Ford is still grappling with.

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According to this report from Ontario Power Generation in partnership with the Ontario Waterpower Association, there is between 3-4000Mw of remaining hydro-electric potential in Ontario. That's about the output of Bruce Nuclear. I think that is rather optimistic given factors such as remoteness, Provincial Parks and FN issues. Although it is 'clean', hydro-electric generation is not without its environmental impact.

You might be right about wave energy although I think it is still in its infancy. The Annapolis Tidal GS was shut down because it was chopping up fish, and the first demonstrator in-water tidal generator in the Bay of Fundy was torn apart by the flow.
I hadn't seen those numbers, but actually I'm thinking more about Quebec and what it can hydro power it can sell to Ontario.

See for example:


We should adopt that as part of a long range strategy before we build another turbine or solar panel.

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I think the death of flying dinosaur descendants isn't as big a matter as it's made out to be (I'm a bit of a Darwinist in that respect).
If bird strikes were confined to small and numerous species of songbirds, the cost might be dismissable. The large less numerous species are the ones at risk. A species at risk has a lot of clout. Ask the people disemployed by spotted owls or having to share water with delta smelt.
 
If bird strikes were confined to small and numerous species of songbirds, the cost might be dismissable. The large less numerous species are the ones at risk. A species at risk has a lot of clout. Ask the people disemployed by spotted owls or having to share water with delta smelt.
I have a granddaughter in university studying environmental things and currently on a practicum with Environment Canada. Last night my daughter was having a running messaging discussion with her about a centipede in Granddaughter's room. Granddaughter thinks of it as a pet; I think of it as a target for my boot. We don't discuss birds and turbines (or for that matter, centipedes) and, so far, she doesn't know of my priorities on this issue, or if she does she politely ignores it.

It's not funny, but ironic, that those people who wish to save all species, regardless of how necessary they might actually be to the environment, are the same people who want green wind energy. I guess their priorities operate on a sliding scale as well.

:cool:
 
I hadn't seen those numbers, but actually I'm thinking more about Quebec and what it can hydro power it can sell to Ontario.

See for example:



We should adopt that as part of a long range strategy before we build another turbine or solar panel.

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No doubt, but the same transmission limitations Quebec faces with the US would apply to Ontario as well. Quebec power is asynchronous with its neighbours, including Ontario, so converter stations would have to be built, no doubt at our expense (that and the fact that a lot of Quebec's long range transmission is Direct Current). They are cheaper than they used to be but still not cheap. We could also get a lot of power from Manitoba, but it's further away from the load market of southern Ontario. I have no idea how infrastructure upgrades would compare against building new generation; although I suspect cheaper than building nuclear.

There is also the political angle of being a beholden buyer. Hopefully we would be a better negotiator than NL was for Churchill Falls.
 
Plus, solar and wind are not base load.
Alberta: “Preach, brother!”

If only more people understood base load vs. green unicorn sourced electricity (that all too often takes the proverbial trip to the washroom when the bill arrives at the table)…

No doubt, but the same transmission limitations Quebec faces with the US would apply to Ontario as well. Quebec power is asynchronous with its neighbours, including Ontario, so converter stations would have to be built, no doubt at our expense (that and the fact that a lot of Quebec's long range transmission is Direct Current). They are cheaper than they used to be but still not cheap. We could also get a lot of power from Manitoba, but it's further away from the load market of southern Ontario. I have no idea how infrastructure upgrades would compare against building new generation; although I suspect cheaper than building nuclear.
Ontario is not a beholden buyer. It has a peak generation capacity of approx 40GW, adjusted to ~35GW base load when you subtract 4.8GW of wind and 480MW of solar. It usually peaks at 22-23GW use, with more than 10+ GW in reserve (usually the more expensive and greater CO2-emitting NG plants in reserve).

As SKT noted earlier…base load generation capability isn’t something to be under appreciated. Guess what forms the unquestionable base load capacity in Ontario? It doesn’t get any clearer than that…all 10GWs worth of it…rain or shine, wind or no wind…sun or no sun…
1724136495855.jpeg


You can see a detailed breakdown of OPG’s capacity and realtime output by source type and location/facility here:

OPG’s actual output is adjusted to provide for Ontario’s internal demand and that of its export clients (other Canadian provinces and US States).
For example, just after midnight on 20 August, Ontario was consuming 13.4GW of power and exporting 2.6GW to export users.
IMG_4832.jpeg

Ontario will sometimes import electricity, not because of necessity, but based on cost. If there’s cheaper hydro available from Quebec or Manitoba for instance, it imports that, while it exports to the US at a higher rate (see this chart from IESO Power Supply for the last few days of OHO’s import/exports. Note for example that late on 15 Aug, while Ontario was net importing power, ie. importing 2.0GW of electricity (the solid blue line, likely QC hydro) it was still exporting 0.8-1.0GW (blue dashed line, likely to Michigan or NY, traditional peak importers of ON power).
1724135267625.jpeg

You can see more detail of Ontario electricity export clients here, but big players are Michigan at 9000 GWh and New York at 5000 GWh annually.

Interestingly, while Ontario did import 7000 GWh from Quebec (2022), it also exported 3000 GWh back to Quebec…ON and QC production costs interestingly are partial offset in time so they horse trade to each other at their cheaper rates while exporting to the US at their respective higher selling rates.




There is also the political angle of being a beholden buyer. Hopefully we would be a better negotiator than NL was for Churchill Falls.

As noted earlier, Ontario isn’t a beholden buyer. It had close to 40GW of generation capability and average peaks in the ~25GW range. It just chooses not to flash up its 10GW of NG generation unless it really would need to (like Alberta needed to in February when the wind stopped blowing and Sun was on the other side of the planet…)

Separate from the economics and practicality of electricity discussed above, what Newfoundlanders like to believe about Joey Smallwood often conveniently forgets that he was the dude that signed the deal with Quebec to give all the Great Whale power away at basement bargain rates, thus beholding Newfoundland to Quebec.
 

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Alberta: “Preach, brother!”

If only more people understood base load vs. green unicorn sourced electricity (that all too often takes the proverbial trip to the washroom when the bill arrives at the table)…


Ontario is not a beholden buyer. It has a peak generation capacity of approx 40GW, adjusted to ~35GW base load when you subtract 4.8GW of wind and 480MW of solar. It usually peaks at 22-23GW use, with more than 10+ GW in reserve (usually the more expensive and greater CO2-emitting NG plants in reserve).

As SKT noted earlier…base load generation capability isn’t something to be under appreciated. Guess what forms the unquestionable base load capacity in Ontario? It doesn’t get any clearer than that…all 10GWs worth of it…rain or shine, wind or no wind…sun or no sun…
View attachment 87430


You can see a detailed breakdown of OPG’s capacity and realtime output by source type and location/facility here:

OPG’s actual output is adjusted to provide for Ontario’s internal demand and that of its export clients (other Canadian provinces and US States).
For example, just after midnight on 20 August, Ontario was consuming 13.4GW of power and exporting 2.6GW to export users.
View attachment 87427

Ontario will sometimes import electricity, not because of necessity, but based on cost. If there’s cheaper hydro available from Quebec or Manitoba for instance, it imports that, while it exports to the US at a higher rate (see this chart from IESO Power Supply for the last few days of OHO’s import/exports. Note for example that late on 15 Aug, while Ontario was net importing power, ie. importing 2.0GW of electricity (the solid blue line, likely QC hydro) it was still exporting 0.8-1.0GW (blue dashed line, likely to Michigan or NY, traditional peak importers of ON power).
View attachment 87429

You can see more detail of Ontario electricity export clients here, but big players are Michigan at 9000 GWh and New York at 5000 GWh annually.

Interestingly, while Ontario did import 7000 GWh from Quebec (2022), it also exported 3000 GWh back to Quebec…ON and QC production costs interestingly are partial offset in time so they horse trade to each other at their cheaper rates while exporting to the US at their respective higher selling rates.






As noted earlier, Ontario isn’t a beholden buyer. It had close to 40GW of generation capability and average peaks in the ~25GW range. It just chooses not to flash up its 10GW of NG generation unless it really would need to (like Alberta needed to in February when the wind stopped blowing and Sun was on the other side of the planet…)

Separate from the economics and practicality of electricity discussed above, what Newfoundlanders like to believe about Joey Smallwood often conveniently forgets that he was the dude that signed the deal with Quebec to give all the Great Whale power away at basement bargain rates, thus beholding Newfoundland to Quebec.
Of course it's not now, but would be if those who propose to shut down nuclear and gas 'peaker' plants and simply buy from our neighbours. That was my point to the post I was replying to.

Energy trade ebbs and flows both ways; electrons and potential difference are like that. Ontario is considered 'summer-weighted' because of a/c while Quebec is more 'winter-weighted' largely due to their higher dependence on electric heating.
 
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