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Ontario Majority Government 2022-2026 (?)

Ford has a good start in sorting it out. The steps already outlined are more than most expected.
Blind support of dear leader absent of any analysis of the policy in question: Check.
I know some "I want it yesterday" types will never be satisfied though. The self righteous indignation of the champagne socialists is laughable.
Misdirected ad hominem to try and shutdown disent. Check.
You want my real thoughts on the Green Belt? I don't care about it at all. It was a political ploy that got out of hand and took on a life of it's own. It's a Toronto problem and I could care less about Toronto.
And for the hatrick: proudly professed ignorance coupled with apathy to the issue.

Go ahead and put me on ignore.
 
Not sure, that’s probably a big legal mess that’s well outside the realms of law I have any familiarity with. You’re right that it would likely be very tricky.
Then again, if/when Big Green decides to litigate any movement toward developing land (especially the bits allegedly "suggested" by developers) when those steps happen, it would make a similarly interesting meeting among Queen's Park legal beagles. Wonder who'd be more willing to ask the Province to be a witness on those cases re: the process? ;)
 
The government has announced all sorts of reviews, compliance with AG/Ethic recommendations and probably some other backtracking. What I haven't heard is their unravelling of these lands from development. As mentioned, it would no doubt be a huge legal mess. The government's own housing task force had previously said that there was sufficient land available to fulfil their stating housing goals without touching the Greenbelt.

I don't have first hand knowledge of any of the plots, but I will bet providing services to them would take many years. Development on the Oak Ridge Moraine is tied to the York-Durham Trunk Sewage System, which already has capacity issued and expansion, if approved, would be multi-billion and multi-decade.

I wasn't aware that the OPP had looked into these allegations and said there was nothing. In order to even decide to conduct a criminal investigation, you have to conduct an investigation of some sort; reviewing publicly-accessible records, interviewing people willing to be interviewed, etc. Even if a record indicates evidence, if it is a 'compelled record'; i.e. required by legislation, mandatory process, etc., turning that into admissible criminal evidence is a process in itself. Were there emails? Maybe, but the cops need grounds to access - they can't go fishin'. The RCMP will have no easier time unravelling this than the OPP would have.

In my time I was involved in two 'public official integrity' investigations, both at the municipal level. Absent somebody coming forward with compelling first-hand direct evidence, investigative avenues are often limited. Connecting dots at the criminal level - to a degree that would satisfy a court - is much more difficult. You'd be surprised how much of this done verbally, through non-compellable parties like spouses, on unofficial phones and other channels, and on and on. I'd be very surprised if they would ever uncover an email on a government or TACC phone that said 'you give us land, I give you money'.
 
... I wasn't aware that the OPP had looked into these allegations and said there was nothing ...
Nobody's been able to confirm that via the public record. There was a public statement from the OPP within the past month or so saying an investigation into Greenbelt lands that started way back was still ongoing, and a short while after that, these most recent events & allegations were picked up by the RCMP.
... What I haven't heard is their unravelling of these lands from development. As mentioned, it would no doubt be a huge legal mess. The government's own housing task force had previously said that there was sufficient land available to fulfil their stating housing goals without touching the Greenbelt ...
Closest to that was the Premier's statement to media late last month:
“I have a message to all of the developers: Get those shovels in the ground,” said Ford. “Get started. Here’s another warning to you: I won’t hesitate to put you back in the Greenbelt. I did so the other day – and I almost fell off my chair when I heard it was for sale as an industrial park. To the owners of the land – and I don’t care two hoots who you are – if you don’t follow the rules, and you don’t build homes and don’t start getting shovels in the ground, guess what? You’re done, you’re gone. Test me out, try me again. You’re going back in the Greenbelt. Because I’m fed up with it – absolutely fed up with playing little games.” ... “Again, I don’t care who you are; you’re going back in the Greenbelt unless you start building homes,” ...
Just spotted this as well (from earlier this year) as a potential en-fuckening factor - although Team Red Canada should think very hard before stepping into this one ...
 
Blind support of dear leader absent of any analysis of the policy in question: Check.

Misdirected ad hominem to try and shutdown disent. Check.

And for the hatrick: proudly professed ignorance coupled with apathy to the issue.

Go ahead and put me on ignore.
Blah, blah, blah. Need a kleenex?

You already were.
 
Nobody's been able to confirm that via the public record. There was a public statement from the OPP within the past month or so saying an investigation into Greenbelt lands that started way back was still ongoing, and a short while after that, these most recent events & allegations were picked up by the RCMP.
The original land swap goes back to around November 2022. I can't recall when (or by whom) the OPP was asked to investigate. Following that is the process of deciding what to do about the request and, if yes, conduct a preliminary review to see if a full court press is indicated. The process is slow; lead investigators, teams, project spaces, funding, have to be identified and assembled, and my guess - and that only - was that the investigation/review was trudging along when the AG, Ethics reviews came out. Seeing as chiefs of staff are appointed by the Premier's Office, regardless of what stage the OPP were at, they decided to hand it off.

Interesting statement for public consumption. Getting "shovels in the ground" on land that, a few months ago, some of which wasn't even owned by them, nor zoned, nor serviced nor all of the other things that go along with developing a subdivision, "start building" is a bit laughable.
 
'Start building' includes the surveys, permits and zoning amongst other things. Building a subdivision isn't just putting hammer to nail. It's all part of the process. Getting shovels in the ground starts with these procedures. I think Ford is saying don't dawdle, if you aren't serious about getting started, if you don't survey, pull your permits, etc, you lose your turn. I can't speak for other places, but my city has pulled out the stops and we are putting shovels in the ground and hammer to nail right now. Much has to do with the money and mandate from the province. So while it might not be working in Toronto, big surprise, it is working elsewhere.
 
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'Start building' includes the surveys, permits and zoning amongst other things. Building a subdivision isn't just putting hammer to nail. It's all part of the process. Getting shovels in the ground starts with these procedures. I think Ford is saying don't dawdle, if you aren't serious about getting started you lose your turn.
Perhaps. I wonder how the resident municipal governments are feeling about all of this.

Anybody want to take bets on whatever eventually gets constructed is low density detached homes with a few townhouses tossed in?
 
Perhaps. I wonder how the resident municipal governments are feeling about all of this.

Anybody want to take bets on whatever eventually gets constructed is low density detached homes with a few townhouses tossed in?
We don't have a problem and the city is welcoming it.

We are building a number of multi family dwellings and apartment buildings.

I live in an old, staid, treed neighborhood. I live in a century home which comprises my area, with many close to 200 years old. I have two large (21 and 35 family) apartment blocks being built within about 700 meters of my place. Nobody cares.
 
I don't have time to right a paper, but the kid slept in so I had the wave length for some breakfast excel time. Stats Canada publishes both permit counts and housing starts on a monthly basis.

Quick math, since March 2013 Ontario has issue building permits for just shy of 139k more residential units than have been started, a monthly average surplus of 1100.

Of the surplus 92k or ~1670 per month has been generated since January of 2019. That period can be broken into three distinct phases- pre covid (23.6k /1700 month), Covid (57k / 2400 month) , post covid (11k /670 month (pre Ford monthly Average).

Looking at the numbers themselves the 3 month trailing average of permits and starts went from 6300/5600 in July of 2013, to 7400/6700 in July of 2018, to 8760/8060 July of 2023. That's 5 year increases of 17.4%/19.6% and 18.3%/ 20.3% respectively
 
I don't have time to right a paper, but the kid slept in so I had the wave length for some breakfast excel time. Stats Canada publishes both permit counts and housing starts on a monthly basis.

Quick math, since March 2013 Ontario has issue building permits for just shy of 139k more residential units than have been started, a monthly average surplus of 1100.

Of the surplus 92k or ~1670 per month has been generated since January of 2019. That period can be broken into three distinct phases- pre covid (23.6k /1700 month), Covid (57k / 2400 month) , post covid (11k /670 month (pre Ford monthly Average).

Looking at the numbers themselves the 3 month trailing average of permits and starts went from 6300/5600 in July of 2013, to 7400/6700 in July of 2018, to 8760/8060 July of 2023. That's 5 year increases of 17.4%/19.6% and 18.3%/ 20.3% respectively

So at present there’s about a year and half worth of granted permits yet to actually start? building? Ish?
 
So at present there’s about a year and half worth of granted permits yet to actually start? building? Ish?
Maybe. A lot of assumptions to get there- have they gone void, were they replaced with a new permit for something else that has been built, etc. But there's certainly some sort of material permitted stock unbuilt, to go with a building pace that still can't keep up with the permitting pace.
 
Maybe. A lot of assumptions to get there- have they gone void, were they replaced with a new permit for something else that has been built, etc. But there's certainly some sort of material permitted stock unbuilt, to go with a building pace that still can't keep up with the permitting pace.
I live in a subdivision that’s growing fast just streets over from me, and that also had a similar Re designation of green space to within the urban boundary, permitting more development. From watching the tranches of lot sales, and seeing it all build every few days when I duck into the new part, I definitely get the sense that the throttle is available trades. Everything’s good to go for probably the next hundred houses here, but gauging by the foundation pours they’re only starting a couple new ones a week.
 
I live in a subdivision that’s growing fast just streets over from me, and that also had a similar Re designation of green space to within the urban boundary, permitting more development. From watching the tranches of lot sales, and seeing it all build every few days when I duck into the new part, I definitely get the sense that the throttle is available trades. Everything’s good to go for probably the next hundred houses here, but gauging by the foundation pours they’re only starting a couple new ones a week.
The builder has likely figured out exactly how many houses they can do a month with the trades that they have available to them.

I am still trying to figure out what the game is in taking out that many excess building permits around Toronto. Building permits cost money. To not exercise them in a reasonably time fashion seems like a losing strategy. Unless something else is at play.
 
Trades availability is likely part of it, along with lingering backlog in some materials (raw materials such as framing lumber, sheetgoods, etc. seem to be back to normal, but some manufactured items like windows and doors may still be in backlog.

Keep in mind too that builders typically aren't allowed to have a whole swath of houses at the certain similar stages of construction for fire safety reasons. A If a fire breaks out in a street full of houses at the framing stage, it can run through the lot of them. They are required to have breaks (I can't remember how large).
 

It will be interesting to see what specific mandate letters contain.
There is a part of me that suspects the more the media tries to make people care about the Greenbelt stuff, the more they risk making people care less.

Ford doesn't even have to be the guy to stand there and say "The media is just out to get me", lots of others will do that for him, and many people already hold the media in fairly low regard, particularly when reporting on conservative politicians.
 
The builder has likely figured out exactly how many houses they can do a month with the trades that they have available to them.

I am still trying to figure out what the game is in taking out that many excess building permits around Toronto. Building permits cost money. To not exercise them in a reasonably time fashion seems like a losing strategy. Unless something else is at play.

As I understand it an approved permit in hand is worth alot, in a variety of different ways.

The accountants are generally the ones who call the shots re: starting to build, with a wisely led company of course.
 
As I understand it an approved permit in hand is worth alot, in a variety of different ways.

The accountants are generally the ones who call the shots re: starting to build, with a wisely led company of course.
My understanding is that a fair portion of it comes down to choking supply to increase demand, which increases prices.

Part of the housing problems are caused by a very intentional push by the extremely wealthy to become ultra wealthy.
 
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