GR66
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Does anyone know what the current lead time is on new Leopard 2A7 orders? Might be too long a timeframe to be of any use to Ukraine (hopefully).
OMFV Downselected to 2 Firms.
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Colin Parkinson
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Ukraine is going to need tanks for a very long time, even when hostilities cease.
GR66
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For sure, but post war they may want to invest in new kit as opposed to someone else's castoffs.
Spencer100
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You would have to get in line.
Italy looking at Leo 2A8 fast buy for 125.
Italy begins negotiations to buy new Leopard 2 tanks
Italy is negotiating a purchase of new Leopard 2 main battle tanks from Germany. Italian Defense magazine RID (Rivista Italiana Difesa) was the first to report on the negotiation for the procurement of an undisclosed number of Leopard tanks in 2A7 or 2A8 configuration. According to RID, a deal...
defence-blog.com
Colin Parkinson
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Which is why I think we could likley get up to 10 a year off of other peoples orders, particularly as 10 more per order might reduce price slightly for everyone.
Spencer100
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Best to do it as an "upgrade" of the units we have.....Mail the data plate and a screw or piece of something to Rheinmetall. They ship back an upgraded Leo 2A8.
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Kind of like one of those breakfast cereal promotions?
mail in boxtops, get a prize?
Colin Parkinson
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Worked for USMC helicopters and many of the DHC Beavers flying around
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No one is getting new Leo tanks at a deal right now. Honestly no one is getting a good deal on new tanks period unless they are doing a solid for Ukraine and the US government wants to wheel and deal. Likes are long, so it’s either waiting in line (neither Leo’s or Abrams are at any sort of easily available production rate) or it’s setting up their own production line with something under license.
Ukraine is pretty clear that it wants to have domestic production of Western kit as well.
Ukraine is pretty clear that it wants to have domestic production of Western kit as well.
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Colin Parkinson
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My guess is Poland will start producing K2's for Ukraine, possibly with a percentage of the workers coming from Ukraine. Poland will have their production line up and running while Ukraine is rebuilding, assuming this conflict is over in 2 years. Ukraine will have shortage of workers, electricity, sub contractors and money for quite some time as it rebuilds.
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My guess is Ukraine will make a deal with either Germany or USA.
I suspect there’s a vested interest that will lead to an Abrams plant. Ukraine has already be courting Colt (even with Colt CZ Group having a plant in CZ) and a few other US entities.
Key aspect is that USA isn’t going to let an Abrams etc type plant get taken over by an enemy - so it’s a security guarantee in and of itself to have folks like GDLS, LocMart, and RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) have facilities on your land.
Korean etc can’t do much to Russia, but no one has more firepower than America.
Colin Parkinson
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I doubt Germany, to unreliable and the US has so far as I understand it only allowed Egypt to "Assemble" M1A1 tanks, basically knock down kits made in the US. I don't see the US Congress letting some foreigners build them outright.
Poland and South Korea are already working out the details to build the K2 there and that's makes more sense to take advantage of that facility than to attempt to build a plant that is likley to be targeted and there is no current supporting infrastructure. It will be 2 years at least before they can even think about planning a site and likley another 5 years before they could break ground and another two years to start production, if everything goes well. Meanwhile:
K2 Main Battle Tanks to be Manufactured in Poland for Export [INTERVIEW]
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I suspect a victorious Ukraine will re-write a lot of lot of standing plans and policies.
Egypt isn’t exactly a good example, as we limit a lot of things going there.
I wouldn’t immediately discount Germany - they have a 5-6 year backlog on Leo2 orders currently, and while not a big supporter at the start, under their current Defense Minister, they have jumped above many nations to near the top of Ukrainian supporters.
Furthermore, rebuilding AID money will no doubt be fairly structured by the donor countries towards the donor countries.
Industrial investment especially defense industry investment will be closely structured to benefit the largest donors.
Colin Parkinson
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There is so much to rebuild there, a tank factory will not likley be high on the list, when they can get them from a friendly and reliable next door neighbour. If I am wrong I buy you a beer and vis versa. 
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