North Korea (Superthread)

[tomahawk6]

At some point this could spiral out of control.

 

[CougarKing]

A war narrowly avoided?

Koreas reach agreement after marathon talks

August 25, 2015

SEOUL, Aug. 25 (Yonhap) — South Korea and North Korea reached an agreement Tuesday, Seoul’s presidential spokesman said, ending days of marathon talks aimed at defusing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea’s National Security Adviser Kim Kwan-jin — the country’s chief negotiator to the talks — will announce the details of the agreement at 2 a.m., according to Min Kyung-

Korea Observer

24 August 2015

Yonhap reported that the deal, to be announced later on Monday, would see North Korea express "regret" over the landmine incident earlier this month.

In return, it said South Korea would stop the loudspeaker broadcasts that were resumed after an 11-year hiatus, in apparent retaliation for the landmine attack.

BBC

 

[Edward Campbell]

There pictures are from two days ago, from the New Tang Dynasty TV network which is headquartered in the USA.

The article says that China is moving (moved) tanks (and other units, I see APCs and SP howitzers, too) to the North Korean border regions.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Now, in this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Diplomat, we have some speculation about what China did and why:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/why-did-china-amass-tanks-at-the-north-korean-border/?utm_content=bufferdb976&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Why Did China Amass Tanks at the North Korean Border?
Was it simply good preparation — or was Beijing trying to send a message to Pyongyang?

By Shannon Tiezzi

August 26, 2015

Even as North and South Korea engaged in hours of talks over the weekend, in the hopes of defusing tensions, China was apparently making its own preparations for a worst-case scenario on the Korean peninsula.

On Saturday, Chinese social media users began posting pictures of tanks and other military equipment moving through city streets. The photos were purportedly taken in Yanji, China, the capital of Yanbian prefecture in Jilin province, which lies along the China-Korea border.

Other Chinese social media users posted pictures of a train appearing to carry more military equipment – but those pictures were explained as showing military technology on its way to Beijing for the upcoming military parade. There was some confusion about this point, with some of the same pictures being identified by different sources as taken in or outside of Yanji and Beijing.

NK News, in its analysis of the images, said the photos represented “a mechanical unit at least the size of a brigade,” made up of “PTZ-89 tank destroyers (Type 89), a PGZ-95 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (Type 95 SPAAA), and 155 mm self-propelled guns.” Kim Min-seok of the Korea Defense and Security Forum told NK News that there’s precedent of China sending additional units to the border region during times of increased tensions on the peninsula: “During the bombardment of Yeonpyeong in 2010 and after the purge of Jang Song Thaek in 2013, Chinese units were quickly sent to the area to prevent any unexpected surprises from the China-North Korea border.”

NK News’ analysts agreed that China was trying to send a message to North Korea by moving additional military equipment close to the border: Don’t do anything rash.

Interestingly, the photos of troop movements in Yanji began appearing on Chinese social media on Saturday morning – and North and South Korea began their high-level talks on Saturday evening. The timing suggests that Beijing may have massed tanks near the North Korean border to provide extra incentive for the negotiations to go smoothly.

If China did indeed send its forces to the border to help intimidate Pyongyang into negotiating an end to current tensions, that would be music to Seoul’s ears. South Korea’s Cheong Wa Dae recently announced that President Park Geun-hye will attend China’s September 3 celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II – despite reports that the United States had pressured her to turn down the invitation. At the time, Korean media suggested Park made her decision in the hopes that Beijing would reciprocate by helping encourage North Korea to scale down tensions. The announcement about Park’s trip to Beijing was made on Thursday, just after North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire.

The next day, on August 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying addressed the tensions on the Korean Peninsula for the first time, saying that China “is deeply concerned about what has happened recently.” China “opposes any action that may escalate tension,” Hua added, urging “relevant parties to remain calm and restrained.”

However, the military movement may have a far less interesting explanation. On August 21, Kim Jong-un famously issued an order for the Korean People’s Army to “be fully battle ready.” Park, meanwhile, had also called for “strong military readiness” in South Korea and the U.S. military in South Korea went on an “enhanced [alert] status.” China may merely have been responding in kind, raising the readiness of troops in the border by mobilizing additional supplies.

On Monday, North and South Korea reached an agreement to deescalate tensions. North Korea expressed “regret” over a landmine explosion that seriously injured two South Korean soldiers (though, as John Power points out, Pyongyang did not actually apologize or accept responsibility for the blast). In return, Seoul will once again stop broadcasting anti-North propaganda in the border region. China’s government welcomed the agreement.

 

[CougarKing]

China's changing relationship with North Korea:

Diplomat

Assessing North Korea’s 'Ground Game' with China
Has something changed about Chinese-North Korean relations behind the scenes?

By Adam Cathcart
August 27, 2015

Less than 24 hours after the ostensible end of “the August Crisis” along the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), Zhang Ming, one of China’s various vice-foreign ministers, revealed that the DPRK will send Choe Ryong-hae as its rather high-level representative to Beijing’s September 3 parade, bearing his Party titles. In spite of the borderline silly and solipsistic propaganda being produced about the parade by Chinese Communist Party media, the event itself and the activities around it promise to result in a high-stakes diplomatic event.

Not least, South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s attendance at the parade is sure to prompt a wave of speculation about the prospects for yet more inter-Korean talks. Given how low the proverbial bar is – the notion of “progress” in North-South Korean relations at present consists of any interaction that does not involve cursing at or trying to kill or intimidate the other party – it is hard to see how this could fail to induce hopes for a breakthrough.

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And now China's denying the PLA did a buildup near their border with North Korea:

Reuters

China denies rushing forces to border during Korean tensions
Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:02am EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - China did not rush reinforcements to its border with North Korea following a rise in tensions between the two Koreas last week, China's Defence Ministry said on Thursday, adding that its forces were in normal deployment.

Pictures circulated on Chinese websites over the weekend, which were picked up by some overseas Chinese newspapers, appeared to show the People's Liberation Army bringing in additional tanks to Yanbian, a Chinese border city.

Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said those reports were "untrue and completely hyped up".

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[CougarKing]

The cycle of brinksmanship continues for the hermit state once again:

Reuters

North Korea says main nuclear complex operational, warns U.S.
Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:29am EDT
By Jack Kim and Ju-min Park

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday its main nuclear complex was operating and it was working to improve the "quality and quantity" of its weapons which it could use against the United States at "any time".

The comments follow a declaration by the North in 2013 vowing to restart all nuclear facilities, including the main nuclear reactor in Yongbyon that had been shuttered.

It marked the first acknowledgement since then that the plant, which has been the source of fissile material used in the country's atomic weapons program, is operational, experts said.

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[cupper]

op:

 

[CougarKing]

It seems North Korea won't be outdone by China and Russia's recent grand military parades.

Diplomat

North Korea's Military Parade: Major Takeaways
North Korea commemorated the 70th anniversary of the Korean Worker’s Party’s founding, with China looking on.

By Ankit Panda
October 11, 2015

On Saturday, October 10, North Korea celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of Korean Workers’ Party. At the center of the celebrations was a major national parade through Pyongyang’s Kim Il-sung Square, which featured everything from goose-stepping Korean People’s Army (KPA) troops and slow-rolling jungle camouflaged transporter erector launchers (TELs) for North Korea’s latest and greatest missiles. For Asia observers who’d watched China’s September 3 parade a little over a month ago, the spectacle was familiar in its form but clearly different in its details.

Adding that classically North Korean touch to the entire event, Kim Jong-un delivered remarks, expressing his gratitude and admiration for the KPA and notifying the world that North Korea’s soldiers were “ready for any kind of war against the United States.” Kim’s speech brought to life the words that traditionally flow from the regime’s state media outlet Rodong Sinmun, which regularly calls for war against South Korea and the United States. Notably, Kim’s remarks did not include any references to the country’s nuclear weapons program or threaten nuclear weapon use. For Kim, the parade was a rousing propaganda success. Clad in black and there to be seen by all, the event was an opportunity for the young leader, rumored to have been beleaguered by factionalism and opposition within his own government, to emphasize his command over the country’s armed forces.

As Shannon Tiezzi noted ahead of the parade, Liu Yunshung arrived in Pyongyang on Friday on a four-day visit. Liu is the first member of the Politburo Standing Committee, to visit North Korea since Kim Jong-un became the country’s leader after his father’s death. On Friday night, shortly after his arrival Liu presented a letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping into Kim Jong-un’s hands, suggesting that, despite the optics of the past 16 or so months, China and North Korea may finally be ready to move toward a thaw of sorts. China has historically been North Korea’s closest partner and benefactor.

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For observers of North Korean military hardware, a widely broadcast parade such as this one provided a unique opportunity to take a look at the normally closed-off country’s equipment. The KPA paraded TELs carrying the KN-08/Hwasong-13 inter-continental ballistic missile, the country’s most advanced long-range ballistic missile. Also on display were some of the older systems, including the Nodong, Musudan, and Scud-C missile systems. The KPA even put on display submarine-launched ballistic missiles, including its SS-N-18 Vysota variant.

The October 10 festivities in North Korea are also notable for what they didn’t include: any ballistic missile or satellite launches.

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[CougarKing]

Paving the way for greater Russian involvement in the Korean Peninsula?

Diplomat

Putin Sends Russian Military to North Korea

A Russian military delegation is currently in Pyongyang talking to the Command of the Korean People’s Army.
L1001025
By Franz-Stefan Gady
November 11, 2015

A Russian military delegation arrived in Pyongyang on Monday to conduct a military-to-military dialogue with the command of the Korean People’s Army TASS reports.

The Russian delegation, headed by First Deputy Chief of Russia’s General Staff Nikolay Bogdanovsky, is slated to begin talks with their North Korean counterparts this Wednesday and will stay in North Korea until November 13.

The precise topics of discussion between Russia and North Korea are unknown, although there have been speculations that a defense agreement “on prevention of dangerous military activities” could be signed as a result of the talks.

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[CougarKing]

You can never be certain which top officials are still in favour in a state as reclusive or as oppressive as North Korea:

Diplomat

Funeral List Debunks North Korean Purge Rumors

Two top officials rumored to have been executed have reappeared in elite North Korean politics.

By John Power
November 12, 2015

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Han Kwang-sang and Kim Kyong-ok were among the most prominent of several supposedly purged officials named on the list of committee members, which was released by North Korean state media ahead of the funeral of Marshal Ri Ul-sol on Wednesday.

The committee list was widely seen as a rundown of the country’s top brass, and the inclusion of Han and Kim indicates that they remain alive and in favor with the regime.

In May, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told local lawmakers that Han was among 15 senior officials executed so far this year. The intelligence briefing came seven months after North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, a group of activist defectors, claimed that Kim had been ordered killed.

Both Han, who headed the finance department of the Korean Workers’ Party, and Kim, first deputy director of the ruling party’s powerful Organization and Guidance Department, were regarded as among ruler Kim Jong-un’s closest aides.

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[CougarKing]

Another day, another purge in North Korea:

Kim Jong Un waking up on the wrong side of the bed: "That guard looks ugly...I want him purged!!!"

Diplomat

Senior North Korean Official Gets Sent for 'Re-education'
Choe Ryong-hae, a senior North Korean official and frequent diplomatic envoy, has been punished for incompetence.
By Ankit Panda
November 25, 2015

New rumblings out of North Korea suggest that Kim Jong-un’s seemingly unending power-consolidation process continues. Specifically, the mystery of where Choe Ryong Hae, a former “key aide” to Kim Jong-un and de facto regime number two at one point, went appears to have been resolved. Choe’s status has been the subject of speculation for North Korea watchers after he didn’t appear on a list prepared for the state funeral of a senior North Korean military official earlier this month.

Based on credible reports from South Korean intelligence, Yonhap reports that Choe was sent to a local farm as punishment for his mishandling of a power station construction project. In addition to Choe’s alleged incompetence, South Korean intelligence suggested that Kim and Choe encountered personal disagreements. Choe, secretary of the Worker’s Party of Korea (WPK), is reportedly set to receive “re-education” through hard labor.

Choe’s story within the North Korean regime drew attention when, after the execution of Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-thaek, he was elevated as the second most powerful figure in the regime. (Choe and Kim share family ties as well; a report earlier this year noted that Kim’s younger sister married Choe’s son.) Matters become blurry thereafter and, in April 2015, Hwang Pyong-so effectively confirmed his claim to the title of “number two” when he was given membership in the politburo presidium of North Korea’s Workers’ Party of Korea. Hwang’s additional role as the top political officer in North Korea’s military put him above Choe and ended speculation on Choe’s claim to that role.

Choe is also notable in North Korea for having repeatedly acted as an envoy.
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[CougarKing]

It seems that it's straight to the work camps for Kim Jong Un's rocket scientists for this latest failure:


Diplomat

North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Test Fails

North Korea tested its Bukkeukseong-1/KN-11 missile again. This time, the test may actually have been submarine-launched.

By Ankit Panda
November 30, 2015

Back in May 2015 we witnessed North Korea conduct an ejection test for its KN-11/Bukkeukseong-1 (“Polaris-1”) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). That test, insofar as the ejection itself is concerned, was successful, even though it later emerged that Pyongyang’s video production of the launch was careless in masking that it was actually staged from an underwater barge and not a submarine. On Saturday afternoon, North Korea attempted another KN-11 test-launch which failed.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that the test launch, which was staged from a submarine, took place in the East Sea “failed to soar from the waters,” according to an unidentified South Korean official. The Korea Herald adds that a source noted that “The cover of the capsule where the missile was placed has been found,” presumably by South Korean authorities. The event marks the second SLBM test since the Bukkeukseong-1 back in May. Kim Jong-un himself oversaw that launch and North Korea released widely circulated video footage showcasing the successful ejection.

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[CougarKing]

Signs that food shortages in North Korea are worse than previously thought?

CBC

North Korean fishing boats carrying corpses wash up in Japan
Pressure from leader Kim Jong-un to catch more fish may have sent ill-equipped boats off course

Fishing boats carrying decomposed corpses have washed ashore in Japan in recent weeks, leading to speculation they are rickety North Korean vessels that have strayed dangerously far from port under the impoverished nation's push to boost its catch.

There has been no mention from secretive North Korea of any missing boats, but its leader, Kim Jong-un, has put a high priority on fishing as a way of earning foreign currency and providing a sustainable food source that is not reliant on harvests and weather.

The Japanese coast guard and police reported 12 incidents of wrecked wooden boats, including some that were in pieces, on the country's shores and waters since October, containing 22 dead bodies, including five skulls.

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[CougarKing]

Poor girls...being forced to be the fat one's personal harem...

Shanghaiist

Kim Jong-un's personal girl group will take the stage in Beijing this weekend

North Korean pop sensations the Moranbong Band are set to strengthen the bond between China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea this weekend via song and dance. The group arrived yesterday in Liaoning province for their overseas debut which, according to Xinhua, will be happening at the Beijing's National Center for the Performing Arts from December 12 to 14.

Sadly, tickets aren't available to the public.

 

[CougarKing]

North Korea has a Hydrogen bomb?

Defense News

North Korea Leader Hints at H-Bomb Capability
Agence France-Presse 11:49 a.m. EST December 10, 2015

SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has suggested his nuclear-armed state has developed a hydrogen bomb, a move that would signal a major step forward in its nuclear weapons capabilities.

During a recent inspection tour of a historical military site, Kim mentioned that North Korea was already a "powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb to reliably defend its sovereignty", the North's official KCNA news agency said Thursday.

North Korea has already tested three atom bombs, which rely on nuclear fission.

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[CougarKing]

Apparently, a huge disagreement over one line in one of the aforementioned girl band's songs saw the show cancelled and the girls back on a plane to North Korea:

New York Times

North Korean Band Abruptly Leaves China, Its Concerts Canceled

Sinosphere

By EDWARD WONG DEC. 12, 2015

BEIJING — The favorite pop band of North Korea’s young leader abruptly boarded a plane to return home on Saturday, just hours before an important concert here. The concert would have been the band’s first one overseas and was one of three in the Chinese capital intended to improve relations between the nations.

The group, Moranbong Band, has about 20 members, all slim young women who wear tight dresses and high heels while performing both Western pop songs and North Korean revolutionary standards. They are a contrast to the staid image of the brand of authoritarian socialism that has existed for decades in North Korea under the rule of three generations of the same family. Some reports have said the band’s members were handpicked by the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, whose wife is a former singer from another band.
 
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[CougarKing]

Not surprising that the kangaroo court convicted him after only 90 minutes...

Yahoo News

North Korean court sentences Canadian pastor to life for anti-state activities

The Associated Press
The Canadian Press
December 16, 2015

PYONGYANG, North Korea - North Korea's Supreme Court sentenced a Canadian pastor to life in prison with hard labour on Wednesday for what it called crimes against the state.

Hyeon Soo Lim, who pastors the Light Korean Presbyterian Church in Toronto, was given the sentence after a 90-minute trial. He had been in detention since February.

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[CougarKing]

The scary prospect of North Korea having thermonuclear weapons is examined in this article:

Diplomat

Does North Korea Really Have an H-Bomb?

A closer look at Kim Jong-un’s recent comments.
By 38 North / Jeffrey Lewis
December 16, 2015

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Technically, a few words of caution are in order. Building a staged thermonuclear weapon — one in which the radiation from a fission primary compresses a secondary stage of thermonuclear fuel — would seem to be a bit of a stretch for the North Koreans. That is the sort of device one normally thinks about when someone says “H-bomb.” Thermonuclear weapons are tricky; making one work requires a bit of test experience. While the North Koreans finally conducted an unambiguously successful nuclear test in 2013, the 2006 and 2009 tests were less so.

A more technically plausible scenario is that North Korea might be experimenting with fusion fuels, such as deuterium or lithium, to boost the yield of a fission explosion. Pretty much every country that builds nuclear weapons looks at using fusion fuel to boost the yield of a device. China, for example, burned lithium-6 in its third test, conducted less than two years after its first nuclear test in October 1964. China was committed to developing a staged thermonuclear device, something it accomplished with its fifth and sixth nuclear tests in 1966 and 1967. Pakistan tried to purchase a tritium separation line, something AQ Khan claims it did successfully. Even South Africa had a program to look at boosting its gun-type devices for missile delivery, going so far as to import tritium from Israel.

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[McG]

It appears that 2016 can be added to the list of years during which North Korea fired a nuclear bomb test.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/north-korea-earthquake-suspected-to-be-nuclear-test/article28029878/

 

[CougarKing]

More on the above:

Diplomat

North Korea Tests Nuclear Device, Claims Successful Thermonuclear Detonation

On Wednesday, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test since 2013, claiming to have tested its first thermonuclear device

By Ankit Panda
January 06, 2016


At approximately 10:00 a.m. local time on Wednesday, January 6, North Korea detonated a nuclear device of an unknown yield. In an announcement on state television, the North Korean regime claimed that the device was a hydrogen bomb and that the test was successful. The test was conducted at  41.326°N 129.010°E, near the location of North Korea’s last test in February 2013, which was conducted at  41.302°N 129.066°E. Both test sites are a short distance from the North Korean nuclear facility at Punggye-ri. According to the European Mediterranean Seismological Center, the epicenter of the detonation was approximately 2 kilometers underground.

In announcing the test, the North Korean government emphasized that the device was to protect against powers hostile to the country. The timing of the attack is somewhat surprising as Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address was less focused on the country’s military and the nuclear program than it was on economic issues. However, January 8 marks Kim’s birthday, suggesting that the nuclear test was something of a preemptive birthday celebration for the North Korean leader who took over after his father Kim Jong-il died in 2011. This is the second test on Kim Jong-un’s watch.

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