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Iran Super Thread- Merged

An update on these talks regarding the 2nd Iran nuclear site:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091019/ap_on_re_eu/eu_un_nuclear_iran

VIENNA – Talks to persuade Iran to move most of its enriched uranium out of the country have gotten off to a "good start," the head of the U.N. nuclear agency said Monday.

The comments by Mohamed ElBaradei, who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency, were significant because Iran earlier had signaled it would not meet Western demands for a deal under which it would send most of its enriched material abroad — a move that would delay its ability to potentially make a nuclear bomb.


Tehran has said it needs enriched uranium for nuclear fuel. But the West fears it could be used to make weapons, and the U.S. says Iran is now one to six years away from being able to do so.

Monday's Vienna talks between Iran and the U.S., Russia and France were focused on a technical issue with huge strategic ramifications — whether Iran is ready to farm out some of its uranium enrichment program to a foreign country.

ElBaradei appeared cautiously optimistic after the first day of closed meetings, saying most technical issues had been discussed and the parties would meet again Tuesday morning.

(...)
 
While the Obama administration may not be disposed to do so, they might not have too many choices either:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1122321.html

U.S. officer: If Israel strikes Iran, U.S. will likely join

By Anshel Pfeffer, Haaretz Correspondent and Agencies

The United States would find it difficult not to join an Israeli air strike in the event that Jerusalem decides to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, a former top-ranking U.S. Air Force officer told participants at a conference this weekend organized by a Washington think tank.

Charles F. Wald, former deputy commander of United States European Command, said a military strike on Iran could set back the Islamic Republic's alleged nuclear weapons program by several years, but cautioned, "I don't think Israel can do it alone."

The former commander's remarks were made at an annual gathering of financial backers of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who were joined by diplomats, journalists and analysts.

"They have a fantastic military, but not big enough for weeks or months of attacks - hundreds of sorties per day," he said.

Wald said that should "our great ally Israel" decide to take military action to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, "pressure will mount for us to stand by Israel."

He also criticized the U.S. government and military leadership for not devoting enough attention to Iran's nuclear program in recent years due to their involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wald was also asked to comment on the suggestion by Jimmy Carter's former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski last month that the U.S. shoot down Israeli warplanes if they try to fly over Iraq to attack Iran.

"The chance of that," Wald said, "is zero - no, less than zero."

Last month, Wald and two former U.S. senators authored an article calling for U.S. President Barack Obama to begin preparations for implementing a military option against Iran.

The goal of such preparations, they wrote, would be not only to achieve military readiness for such a strike, but to persuade Tehran of the seriousness of the administration's intentions and convince Israel that it need not act alone.

Also present at the conference was the former head of Israel's Military Intelligence, General (Ret.) Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, who agreed that the U.S. Air Force could be far more effective than Israel in striking Iran's nuclear program: "The U.S. can destroy the nuclear capacity, and the war would not be long," he said.

He added, however, that Western intelligence may still not know about all of Iran's nuclear sites.

"The Tehran regime doesn't seek suicide," Farkash said. "When they realize we mean business this time, they won't want to lose their regime."
 
Thucydides said:
While the Obama administration may not be disposed to do so, they might not have too many choices either:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1122321.html

An indication they may be well aware of that:
As Israel and the US launch a two-week air defence drill on Wednesday, an unnamed commander told Israel Radio the biennial drill was "to prepare for a nuclear Iran", contradicting spokesmen who insist the drill is unrelated to world events.

During the two-week manoeuvres, dubbed Juniper Cobra, some 1,000 American personnel will mesh ground- and ship-based missile interceptors like the Aegis, THAAD and Patriot with Israel's Arrow II ballistic shield, defence officials said.
 
Spokesmen on both sides insisted the biennial drill was unrelated to world events, but Israel Radio quoted an unnamed commander as saying it served "to prepare for a nuclear Iran".

The United States and other world powers are trying to talk Tehran into giving up nuclear technologies with bomb-making potential, while the Israelis watch warily from the sidelines.

Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, has hinted it could resort to force to prevent its arch-foe attaining the means to threaten its existence.

But some analysts believe that tactical limitations, and U.S. misgivings about pre-emptive strikes, may compel Israel to accept a more defensive posture with the help of its top ally.

Iran denies seeking the bomb and has threatened to retaliate for any attack by firing its medium-range missiles at Israel.

http://www.france24.com/en/20091021-israel-us-tests-missile-defence-iran-tensions-tehran-nuclear
 
And surprise, surprise: Iran now blames Pakistan for having a hand in that attack last week, IIRC.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8313625.stm

Iran's president has accused Pakistani agents of involvement in a suicide bombing in south-east of the country targeting a group of the elite Revolutionary Guards force.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Pakistan to arrest the attackers, who he said had entered Iran from Pakistan.
Forty-two people died in the attack in Sistan-Baluchistan, including six Revolutionary Guards commanders.
Iran has previously accused the US and UK of contributing to the attack.

In his first comments on the bombing, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini also blamed the United States.
"This terrorists crime revealed the evil face of enemies of security and unity who are supported by intelligence organisations of some arrogant governments," he said, using a phrase that usually refers to the US and its allies.
Pakistani officials condemned the attack, which has been blamed on the Sunni resistance group, Jundullah.
The Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman, Abdul Basit, dismissed Iranian claims that Jundullah's leader was in Pakistan.
'Crushing' response
According to state media, one or more suicide bombers targeted the group of Revolutionary Guards leaders who had arranged to meet tribal leaders in the Pishin district close to the Pakistani border.
Reports said a suicide bomber detonated a belt packed with explosives as the meeting was about to start.
The deputy commander of the Guards' ground force, General Noor Ali Shooshtari, and the Guards' chief provincial commander, Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh, were among at least six officers reported to have been killed.
Dozens of people were injured.
A top Guards officer has also vowed to deliver a "crushing" response to those behind the attack, according to Agence-France Presse.
Mr Ahmadinejad pointed towards Pakistan.
"We were informed that some security agents in Pakistan are co-operating with the main elements of this terrorist incident," he was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency.
"We regard it as our right to demand these criminals from them," he said, without elaborating.
"We ask the Pakistani government not to delay any longer in the apprehension of the main elements in this terrorist attack."
Iranian authorities summoned a senior Pakistani diplomat in Tehran, claiming that the assailants had arrived in Iran from Pakistan, Iranian state media reported.
The Iranian foreign ministry also "protested against the use of Pakistani territory by the terrorists and rebels against the Islamic Republic of Iran", the Isna news agency reported.
Earlier, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said "US action" contributed to the attack. The US dismissed the accusation.
Banditry and kidnapping
Sistan-Baluchistan is mainly made up of the Baluchi ethnic group, who belong to the Sunni Muslim minority of Shia-ruled Iran.Jundallah has previously been accused by Iran of terrorist activities in the province.
The province borders both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and has long been affected by smuggling, drug trafficking, banditry and kidnapping.
Jundallah, also known as the Popular Resistance Movement of Iran, says it is fighting against the political and religious oppression of the country's minority Sunni Muslims.
Local media cited officials as saying Jundallah had accepted responsibility for Sunday's bombing, though there was no direct claim from the group.
 
We'll see how this turns out.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091025/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_nuclear

U.N. inspectors got their first look Sunday inside a once-secret uranium enrichment facility that has raised Western suspicions about the extent of Iran's nuclear program.

The semiofficial Mehr news agency reported the four-member team visited the heavily protected facility, carved into a mountainside south of Tehran. The tour marked the first independent examination of the site, but no results were expected until after the inspectors leave Iran later this week.


The review also coincides with the countdown to Iran's expected decision on whether to accept a U.N.-brokered deal to process its nuclear fuel abroad — a plan designed to ease Western fears about Iran's potential ability to produce weapons-grade material.

The disclosure last month of Iran's second enrichment facility — known as Fordo after a village believed to have the largest percentage of fighters killed in the 1980-88 war with Iraq — raised international suspicion over the extent and aim of Tehran's nuclear program.


But Iran says that by reporting the existence of the site voluntarily to the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, it "pre-empted a conspiracy" against Tehran by the U.S. and its allies who were hoping to present the site as evidence that Iran was developing its nuclear program in secret.

(...)
 
More renewed protests:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091104/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran

TEHRAN, Iran – The contrasts were vivid: Pro-government supporters chanted "Death to America" and stomped on U.S. flags Wednesday while not far away, hundreds of opposition protesters denounced Iran's leaders and appealed to America's president to choose sides.

"Obama, Obama, you are either with them, or with us," the anti-government protesters chanted in Farsi, in an amateur video clip widely circulated on the Internet.

The new and startling appeal to President Barack Obama came as Iran's opposition protesters returned to the streets in large numbers for the first time in nearly two months. Authorities were ready with the same sweeping measures they used to quell fierce election-fraud protests this summer and early fall: Sending paramilitary units to key locations to fire tear gas and beat people with batons.

Witnesses said they heard a man, apparently working for a paramilitary group, shout "Beat him up, beat him up," as he chased a protester in the crowd. "How is it possible to see such cruelty," another protester cried as he stood on the street, according to the same witnesses, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisals.

The protests showed the determination of Iran's opposition to reassert its voice. But the latest marches drew far fewer demonstrators than in the summer or even in September, suggesting the relentless pressure by authorities could be taking a toll.


In Washington, the White House called for an end to the violence against anti-government protesters. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Obama administration leaders "hope greatly that violence will not spread."

The administration has pursued talks with Iran's government even as it has pushed for more concessions on Iran's controversial nuclear program. Obama said in a statement Tuesday that he wanted the U.S. and Iran to move beyond "suspicion, mistrust and confrontation."

The day — marking the 30th anniversary of the U.S. Embassy takeover — has major symbolic importance for Iran's leaders.

Thousands of people attended a pro-government rally called to mark the anniversary, chanting "Death to America" and walking over and stomping on U.S. flags outside Washington's former embassy.

Just blocks away, hundreds of opposition marchers in Haft-e-Tir Square denounced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with cries of "Death to the Dictator" and trampled a poster of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, witnesses said.

In all, several thousand protesters joined the marches in various spots across the city. But those numbers were far smaller than at the height of the outrage after claims that Ahmadinejad stole the election by fraud this summer.

The main marches were quickly dispersed by security forces — including paramilitary forces and militiamen linked to the powerful Revolutionary Guard — who used clubs and tear gas, said other witnesses, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisals from authorities.

Mobile phones were disrupted as was Internet access and text messaging, in another echo of the summer. Yet amateur video like the one appealing to Obama still was posted on Web sites, showing protesters in fall clothes and coats in Tehran's streets.

Media restrictions now limit journalists to covering state media and government-approved events, such as the rally outside the former embassy.

Pro-reform Web sites said police fired into the air to try to clear Haft-e-Tir square — about half a mile from the former U.S. Embassy. The report could not immediately be independently verified.

Some demonstrators were injured and arrested, witnesses said, but a clear number could not be independently obtained. There were no reports of serious injuries.

In many ways, it was a replay of the last time opposition groups took to the streets in mid-September to coincide with another state-sponsored rally — that one to denounce Israel. But those marches brought tens of thousands of protesters and a more militant response — with protesters throwing stones and setting fires ablaze.

The smaller turnout raised questions about the long-term stamina of the opposition after facing months of arrests.

"I don't think the opposition is as able to get as many people in the streets as they were after the election," said Alireza Nader, an Iran affairs analyst for RAND Corp. in Washington. "But today's events show there is still opposition that is willing to come out."

The opposition movement has also evolved since the election fallout touched off Iran's worst internal unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Protests still wear the green colors that symbolized the campaign of Mir Hossein Mousavi, who claims Ahmadinejad stole the election from him through rigged ballots.

But it has now expanded into a catchall movement for complaints that include the unlimited powers of the ruling clerics, Iran's sinking economy and its international isolation. Its wider reach has managed to draw in other political leaders and clerics who have challenged Ahmadinejad and his allies.

"I think the long-term crisis for the government isn't over," said Nader. "There is still a strong sense that the Ahmadinejad government is not legitimate."

A pro-reform Web site said militiamen on motorcycles prevented Mousavi from leaving his office to attend the marches. Another leading opposition figure, Mahdi Karroubi, fell to the ground after being overcome by tear gas, according to a posting by his son Hossein on Karroubi's Web site. Karroubi did not need medical attention, his son said.


The full scope of Wednesday's protests was difficult to determine. Some opposition groups also reported demonstrations in other cities such as Shiraz and Isfahan.

Authorities had warned protesters days in advance against attempts to disrupt or overshadow the annual gathering outside the former embassy, which was stormed by Iranians in 1979 in the turbulent months after the Islamic Revolution.

Fifty-two Americans were held hostage for 444 days, and the two nations have never resumed diplomatic ties.

Outside the former U.S. Embassy, thousands of people waved anti-American banners and signs praising the Islamic Revolution. As in past years, many were students bused in from outside Tehran.

The main speaker, hard-line lawmaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, denounced the United States as the main enemy of Iran. He called opposition leaders dangerous to the country.
 
 
If the Obama Administration would stop dithering (or better yet, stop trying to appease dictators), then the Iran problem (regional destabilization, support of Hamas and Hezbollah, support of Syria, weapons and other aid to Taliban in Afghanistan, nuclear weapons program) would be pretty much "self correcting".

Another reason for all of us to wear green (besides the uniform).
 
:o

Report: Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead

U.K. paper says U.N. watchdog has asked Tehran to explain new evidence

LONDON - The U.N. nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting the Islamic Republic's scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian reported in its Friday edition.

The newspaper, citing what it describes as "previously unpublished documentation" from an International Atomic Energy Agency compiled dossier, said Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of a "two-point implosion" device.


The IAEA said in September it has no proof Iran has or once had a covert atomic bomb program.

More at...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33711466/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/
 
CougarDaddy said:

Just when I was going to comment on how the uranium used in power plants can also be converted for bombs and depleted uranium ammunition this comes out...great.
 
Sending a message to the West again?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091121/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_war_games

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran will begin large-scale air defense war games Sunday aimed at protecting its nuclear facilities from possible attack, a senior military commander said Saturday.

The five-day drill will involve Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard and the regular army and will cover 230,000 square miles — or about 600,000 square kilometers — of central, western and southern Iran, said air force Gen. Ahmad Mighani.


As Iran has pressed forward with its nuclear program, Israel has repeatedly threatened military action to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The U.S. also has not ruled out military action should diplomacy fail to resolve the dispute over Iran's nuclear activities.

Washington and its European allies suspect Iran aims to use a civilian nuclear program as cover to produce weapons, and Iran has effectively rejected a new U.N. proposal aimed at easing those concerns. Tehran denies any intention to make nuclear weapons and says it only wants to generate power.

The defense drill will involve an attack by airplanes representing a hypothetical enemy.

"Reconnaissance enemy planes will violate our air space and try to disrupt electronic and radar systems, identify sensitive facilities, take photos and ... attack air defense sites," Mighani said, according to a state TV report. "And our air defense system will confront the intruding planes."

A planned key component of Iran's air defenses, an anti-aircraft missile system from Russia, has yet to be delivered.

Mighani criticized Russia, saying the delay in the S-300 missiles was apparently the result of Israeli pressure, not technical issues, as Moscow claims.

(...)
 
 
Ahmadinejad and his friends really want to piss off the West.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/091129/world/iran_nuclear_politics

A defiant Iranian government led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed on Sunday to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants and also study a plan to process the material to 20 percent purity, state media reported.


The hardline stance -- seen as hitting out at world powers led by Washington -- came after the conservative-dominated parliament urged the government to reduce ties with the UN atomic watchdog which on Friday condemned Iran for building its second uranium enrichment plant.


State television reported on its website that Ahmadinejad's cabinet overwhelmingly ordered Iran's atomic body to begin building at five new sites earmarked for uranium enrichment plants and to locate sites for another five over the next two months.

The report said the Islamic republic plans to produce 20,000 megawatts of nuclear power which would be generated by building another 10 uranium enrichment plants the size of the one in the central city of Natanz.


"In order to produce 20,000 megawatts we need 500,000 centrifuges with the current capacity. But we have designed new centrifuges which have higher capacity, so we would require less centrifuges and as soon as they become operational we will use them," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.


"We have to reach the level to be able to produce between 250 and 300 tons of fuel per year in the country, and for this we need newer centrifuges with a higher speed."


Iran is already under three sets of UN sanctions for defiantly enriching uranium -- the most controversial aspect of its nuclear programme -- at the Natanz facility.


Tehran further infuriated world powers in September when it disclosed it is building a second enrichment plant near the Shiite holy city of Qom.


On Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned Iran for building the Qom plant and asked for its construction to stop.


Angry Iranian MPs demanded that Ahmadinejad's government reduce ties with the IAEA following the resolution, seen as "political and lacking consensus."


"We consider the behaviour of the IAEA to be that of double standards and political. We want it to give up this double standard which has tarnished its reputation," the MPs said in a sternly worded declaration.


"The Iranian nation without a doubt knows that legally its nuclear file has no flaws," they said, and urged the government to continue its nuclear programme "without any halt."

(...)
 
 
More from the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8385275.stm

Iran 'planning 10 new uranium enrichment sites' 

Iran's second uranium enrichment facility came to light in September
Iran's government has approved plans to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants, according to state media.

The government told the Iranian nuclear agency to begin work on five sites, with five more to be located over the next two months.

It comes days after the UN nuclear watchdog rebuked Iran for covering up a uranium enrichment plant.

The White House said the move was "yet another serious violation of Iran's clear obligations".

Meanwhile, Britain described the news as "a matter of serious concern" and potentially a "deliberate breach" of UN resolutions.

Western powers say Iran is trying to develop nuclear arms. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful.


ANALYSIS

Jon Leyne, BBC Tehran correspondent


Iran says the purpose is to produce peaceful nuclear power. But the country's first nuclear power station at Bushehr is still under construction and others remain on the drawing board. Under this plan, Iran would increase its production of enriched uranium from just under one metric tonne last year, to up to 300 metric tonnes a year. It's hard to see how this quantity of enriched uranium would be needed any time soon, especially as the fuel for the Bushehr reactor is supplied by Russia.


President Ahmadinejad is also calling for his cabinet to approve a move to increase the enrichment to 20%, up from 5%. The aim, presumably, would be to supply the Tehran research reactor, following the breakdown of an international deal to provide fuel for it. But some Western analysts say Iran does not possess the technical know-how to fabricate fuel rods for the reactor.
The country insists it is only doing what is allowed under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

But a UK Foreign Office spokesman said: "Reports that Iran is considering building more enrichment facilities are clearly a matter of serious concern.

"It would be a deliberate breach of five UN security council resolutions. We will need to consider our response."

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said in a statement: "If true, this would be yet another serious violation of Iran's clear obligations under multiple UN Security Council resolutions and another example of Iran choosing to isolate itself.

"Time is running out for Iran to address the international community's growing concerns about its nuclear programme."

'Hard line'

BBC Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne says Iran's move is a massive act of defiance that is likely to bring forward a direct confrontation over Iran's nuclear programme.

The West will fear this move will speed up Iran's ability to make a nuclear bomb, our correspondent adds.

President Ahmadinejad's immediate purpose may be to up the stakes in the diplomatic standoff, and use the issue to try to consolidate his position at home.

By taking such a hard line, the president could outmanoeuvre critics trying to use the nuclear issue against him, our correspondent adds.

Iran says the new plants would be of a similar size to its main existing one at Natanz.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told his cabinet that parliament had ordered that Iran should produce 20,000 megawatts of nuclear energy by 2020.

It therefore needed to make 250-300 tonnes of nuclear fuel a year, he said, which would require 500,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium.

Natanz has nearly 5,000 working centrifuges, with plans to build 54,000 in all.

Under the plan Mr Ahmadinejad presented to the cabinet, the level of enrichment would also be increased.

On Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution that was heavily critical of Iran for covering up a uranium enrichment plant near the town of Qom.

Earlier on Sunday it was reported that the Iranian parliament had urged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government to reduce co-operation with the IAEA.
 
Iran at it again.

http://www.military.com/news/article/iran-seizes-british-yacht.html%5D

Iran Seizes British Yacht
November 30, 2009 Associated Press

Iran is holding five British sailors after stopping their racing yacht in the Persian Gulf, the British government said Monday. The move could heighten tensions between Iran and major world powers, including Britain, that are demanding a halt to its nuclear program. The yacht owned by Sail Bahrain was stopped on its way from the tiny island country to the Gulf city of Dubai on Wednesday when it "may have strayed inadvertently into Iranian waters," Britain's Foreign Office said. Sail Bahrain's Web site identified the yacht as the "Kingdom of Bahrain" and said it had been due to join the Dubai-Muscat Offshore Sailing Race, which was to begin Nov. 26. The event was to be the boat's first offshore race.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said that British officials had been in touch about the matter with their Iranian counterparts for nearly a week.
"I hope this issue will soon be resolved," he said.
The statement added that the crew members "are still in Iran" and were "understood to be safe" but did not specify whether they are and what their legal status is. A call seeking clarification from Britain's Foreign Office was not immediately returned.
Fifteen British military personnel were detained in the Gulf by Iran under disputed circumstances in March 2007. Iran charged them with trespassing in its waters, and the Iranian government televised apologies by some of the captured crew.
All were eventually freed without an apology from Britain, which steadfastly insisted the crew members were taken in Iraqi waters, where they were authorized to be.
The phone rang unanswered at the Iranian Embassy in London.
Iran's nuclear chief on Monday said U.N. criticism of its nuclear program had pushed his country to retaliate by announcing ambitious plans for more uranium enrichment. With tensions rising over deadlocked negotiations, France said diplomacy was not working and sanctions against Iran were needed.
 
Seems those detained British sailors have just been released today.

Iran releases five Britons detained from yacht: radio

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has released five Britons who had been detained in the Gulf after their yacht apparently strayed into Iranian waters, state radio said on Wednesday.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki late on Tuesday and called for formal consular access to the men and their speedy release. They were detained on November 25.

"After getting necessary guarantees, Iran released the five," state radio quoted a statement issued by the Revolutionary Guards.

"We reached the conclusion that they entered Iran's territorial waters by mistake."

(...)


http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Iran/idUSTRE5B10XR20091202
 
Didn't Israel bomb the last facilities Iran tried to build to make nukes fissile material?
 
The IAF bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq (during the reign of Saddam Hussein) to prevent start-up and the production of fissile material for bomb making in 1981. See here for a quick recap
 
The Iranians might yet fix this themselves:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/military-mutiny-in-iran/

Military Mutiny in Iran?

Posted By Afshin Ellian On December 12, 2009 @ 2:19 pm In . Column2 02, Iran, Middle East, World News | 13 Comments

Leading commentators and diplomats have been pondering for quite some time why the Iranian leader is not prepared to act against the revolution in a major way. The “China model” could be applied, a brutal, fast, and extremely violent strike against the opposition. According to conventional wisdom, tyrants will use all means to eliminate their opponents. So why haven’t the mullahs adopted Chinese methods?

Tanks and soldiers

Applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran, it means the following:

    * At a given time (e.g., around three o’clock in the morning) soldiers would raid the cities and arrest everybody suspected of even the slightest “green” revolutionary inclination.
    * All communications with the outside world would be temporarily shut down.
    * People would wake up with a statement by the leader proclaiming the definitive end of all demonstrations. Then thousands would be executed.

Speed and brutality are the key aspects of the China model. Why does Khamenei not activate this model?

This summer he did consider this, before he became ill. He even gave carte blanche for the arrest of opposition leader Mousavi. But Khamenei has subsequently stopped its implementation. Why? Because he had been told that this would provoke an explosion that would likely engulf him and his regime.

Revolutionary Guards

At the time, I also heard another reason, which, if true, would be the main reason. There are serious doubts about the military itself. The army and parts of the Revolutionary Guards (abbreviated as RG) would, under those circumstances, choose the side of the opposition and the people. The military power of Khamenei would be broken. This, however, was speculation without proof.

Now there is evidence to support it. On December 10, a statement signed by a number of officers and commanders of the Iranian army was released. The regular army of Iran had not been involved in the suppression of the population. The statement was signed by:

    * Pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the regular army (Havanirooz)
    * Commanders and personnel of the 31th artillery division of Isfahan of the regular army
    * Pilots and airmen of the regular army
    * Teachers of the Shaid Satari University of the regular air force
    * Officers and staff of the logistics training unit the regular army
    * Professors and lecturers of the Imam Ali University for officers of the regular army
    * Officers, staff, and commanders of the chief of staff of the regular army

What did these soldiers write?

In summary, they wrote: Together we fought in the war with our brothers in the Revolutionary Guards in order to defend the country, the people, and the honor of the nation. They also emphasize that “the value of the land means the value of the Iranian nation.” This is very interesting. 

Value of the nation.

Not abstract concepts such as Iran or Islam, but the value of the nation determines the value of the land. Therefore, the weapons of the army and RG are to be used to protect the nation: “When we fought together, we could never suspect that parts of the RG would ever use its weapons against the people.”

The last section of this brief but powerful statement will surely immortalize these brave officers: “The army is a haven for the nation and will never want to suppress the people at the request of politicians. We shall remain true to our promise not to intervene in politics. But we cannot remain silent when our fellow citizens are oppressed by tyranny.”

They go on: “Therefore, we warn the Guards who have betrayed the martyrs (from the war between Iran and Iraq) and who decided to attack the lives, the property and the honor of the citizens. We seriously warn them that if they do not leave their chosen path, they will be confronted with our tough response. The military is a haven for the nation. And we will defend the peace-loving Iranian nation against any aggression.”

Very clear language. This declaration was distributed by several human rights sites such as Iran Press News and Amir Kabir and Gooya.

I have spoken with several sources inside and outside of Iran. The statement is real. If Khamenei orders the arrest of the officers, resistance will spread like wildfire in all barracks of the regular army.

It is ironic that once again the officers of the regular air force join the people against the regime. Thirty years ago the officers of the regular air force also joined the people. After a few weeks the regime of the Shah was overthrown. The American and European diplomats need to warn Khamenei in a louder and clearer way about the consequences of his way of governing the nation. Especially now that Khamenei’s power also further erodes in the regular army.

This article first appeared in the Dutch magazine Elsevier on December 12, 2009.

Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
 
Continuing student protests and clashes with the Iranian security apparatus which started last week:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091213/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran


TEHRAN, Iran – Hundreds of students at Tehran University renewed anti-government protests for a second week on Sunday, accusing authorities of fabricating images of demonstrators burning photos of the Islamic Republic's revered founder.

Students moved to the forefront of opposition on the streets with massive protests last week. They say authorities are using the images of burning photos as a pretext to crack down on their protests, which have helped revitalize the pro-reform movement.

State television has repeatedly shown images, ostensibly taken during student-led protests on Dec. 7, of unidentified hands burning and tearing up pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It was a grave and illegal insult against the former leader, still widely respected in the country. The elite Revolutionary Guard, the country's most powerful military force, called for the trial and punishment of those responsible.

Mohammad Nourizad, a filmmaker and activist, said that no matter who was behind the destruction of his photo, the offense pales in significance to the killing of protesters and the violation of people's rights. Iran's opposition says at least 72 protesters were killed in the weeks after the disputed June presidential election, while the government puts the number of confirmed dead at 30.

"When I saw how you tore up Imam (Khomeini's) road map for respecting people's rights and protecting their dignity, I had no power but to tear up his photo," Nourizad said sarcastically. He said the government was using the issue as a "childish tactic" against its opponents.

Student activists say authorities are trying to discredit them just as they begin to put up a new, powerful challenge to the regime. The opposition's mainstream leaders have struggled to dent the power of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran's clerical leadership.

Students at Tehran University played a major role in street demonstrations in support of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that that toppled to pro-U.S. shah and brought Iran's clerical rulers to power.

Reformists contend that Ahmadinejad was re-elected by massive vote fraud, a belief that brought hundreds of thousands of protesters into the streets at the height of post-election unrest. The protests evolved into a broader confrontation against the country's ruling theocracy, but eventually died down in the face of a harsh crackdown by security forces stifled the street demonstrations.

Former President Mohammad Khatami, a prominent opposition voice, also said students were not behind the destruction of the photos.

"Do not use the Imam to justify a harsher approach against those you do not like," he was quoted as saying on a pro-reform Web site called Parlemannews.

Video circulated widely on the Internet on the day of last week's protests also showed photos of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad being burned, as well as one photo of Khamenei and Khomeini side by side. The faces of those burning the pictures could not be seen and loud chants against the government were heard in the background.

Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, appealed for calm but suggested the opposition was creating a hostile environment.

"Some have turned the election campaign into a campaign against the entire system," he said without naming any opposition leaders. "We call on those who are angry to remain calm."

Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi has said his supporters love Khomeini and would not take actions that insulted him. The post-election protests, led by Mousavi, borrowed tactics from Khomenei's Islamic Revolution, such as shouting "Allahu Akbar" from the rooftops of Tehran in a nightly protest.

During Sunday's demonstration, students held up photos of Khomeini. One women wrapped his picture around her head like a hat and hid the rest of her face behind a scarf in the green color of the opposition.

Dozens of police ringed Tehran University but did not enter the campus because they are barred by law from doing so. No violence was reported.

Last week's demonstrations, in which tens of thousands of students protested for two days on campuses in the capital, Tehran, and other parts of the country, did spark violence as hard-line students scuffled with their rivals. They were the largest anti-government rallies in months, and there were also a number of demonstrations outside of campuses.

Angry government supporters, including hard-line clerics, rallied on Friday and Saturday to denounce those who burned photos of Khamenei. Tens of thousands turned out on Saturday.

Khomeini, who led the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is revered by both the opposition and the ruling system. But Khamenei is a much more divisive figure, seen by the opposition as an dictator who rules with an iron fist.

During last week's rallies, protesters shouted "Death to the oppressor, whether it's the shah or the leader!" — making a daring comparison between Khamenei and the pro-U.S. shah, despised in Iran since his overthrow.

Khamenei warned opposition leaders to stay away from the student protesters.

"Why don't they learn when leaders of oppression and arrogance, the U.S., France and Britain, support them," state TV quoted Khamenei as saying. "Open your eyes and stay away," he said.

The Revolutionary Guard called for legal action against those who burned the photos of Khomeini.

"The Revolutionary Guard ... won't tolerate any silence or hesitation in the immediate identification, trial and punishment of those carrying out this ugly insult and the agents behind them," it said in a statement posted on its Web site.

Under the law, insults to the late or current supreme leader can lead to two years of prison.

 
Depending on how far along they are, maybe we need to brush up on our CBRN training:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6955351.ece

Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger
Catherine Philp in Washington

Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.

The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.

An Asian intelligence source last week confirmed to The Times that his country also believed that weapons work was being carried out as recently as 2007 — specifically, work on a neutron initiator.

The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.

“Although Iran might claim that this work is for civil purposes, there is no civil application,” said David Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, which has analysed hundreds of pages of documents related to the Iranian programme. “This is a very strong indicator of weapons work.”

The documents have been seen by intelligence agencies from several Western countries, including Britain. A senior source at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that they had been passed to the UN’s nuclear watchdog.

A Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokeswoman said yesterday: “We do not comment on intelligence, but our concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme are clear. Obviously this document, if authentic, raises serious questions about Iran’s intentions.”

Responding to The Times’ findings, an Israeli government spokesperson said: “Israel is increasingly concerned about the state of the Iranian nuclear programme and the real intentions that may lie behind it.”

The revelation coincides with growing international concern about Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran insists that it wants to build a civilian nuclear industry to generate power, but critics suspect that the regime is intent on diverting the technology to build an atomic bomb.

In September, Iran was forced to admit that it was constructing a secret uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom. President Ahmadinejad then claimed that he wanted to build ten such sites. Over the weekend Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said that Iran needed up to 15 nuclear power plants to meet its energy needs, despite the country’s huge oil and gas reserves.

Publication of the nuclear documents will increase pressure for tougher UN sanctions against Iran, which are due to be discussed this week. But the latest leaks in a long series of allegations against Iran will also be seized on by hawks in Israel and the US, who support a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities before the country can build its first warhead.

Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: “The most shattering conclusion is that, if this was an effort that began in 2007, it could be a casus belli. If Iran is working on weapons, it means there is no diplomatic solution.”

The Times had the documents, which were originally written in Farsi, translated into English and had the translation separately verified by two Farsi speakers. While much of the language is technical, it is clear that the Iranians are intent on concealing their nuclear military work behind legitimate civilian research.

The fallout could be explosive, especially in Washington, where it is likely to invite questions about President Obama’s groundbreaking outreach to Iran. The papers provide the first evidence which suggests that Iran has pursued weapons studies after 2003 and may actively be doing so today — if the four-year plan continued as envisaged.

A 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate concluded that weapons work was suspended in 2003 and officials said with “moderate confidence” that it had not resumed by mid-2007. Britain, Germany and France, however, believe that weapons work had already resumed by then.

Western intelligence sources say that by 2003 Iran had already assembled the technical know-how it needed to build a bomb, but had yet to complete the necessary testing to be sure such a device would work. Iran also lacked sufficient fissile material to fuel a bomb and still does — although it is technically capable of producing weapons-grade uranium should its leaders take the political decision to do so.

The documents detail a plan for tests to determine whether the device works — without detonating an explosion leaving traces of uranium detectable by the outside world. If such traces were found, they would be taken as irreversible evidence of Iran’s intention to become a nuclear-armed power.

Experts say that, if the 2007 date is correct, the documents are the strongest indicator yet of a continuing nuclear weapons programme in Iran. Iran has long denied a military dimension to its nuclear programme, claiming its nuclear activities are solely focused on the production of energy for civilian use.

Mr Fitzpatrick said: “Is this the smoking gun? That’s the question people should be asking. It looks like the smoking gun. This is smoking uranium.”
 
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