Iran Super Thread- Merged

[CougarKing]

Surprise, Surprise... : - though it's really surprising to most of you; it would be ignorance to admit that Iran is just involved in Iraq and not in Afghanistan as well, though the evidence as stated by this article is little lacking so far.

(BTW, isn't it about time all these other threads about Iran such as "Top Iranian General to defect?" and "Iranian Economy headed for collapse" all be merged with this thread to make a giant Iran superthread? It would make sense, IMHO.)

http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,132610,00.html?wh=wh

Iranian Weapons Found in Afghanistan
Associated Press  |  April 17, 2007
WASHINGTON - U.S. forces in Afghanistan recently intercepted Iranian-made mortars and other weaponry in Afghanistan, although it is not clear they were shipped directly from Iran, the military's top general said Tuesday.

Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that unlike in Iraq, where U.S. officials say they are certain that arms are being supplied to insurgents by Iran's secretive Quds Force, the Iranian link in Afghanistan is murky.

"It is not as clear in Afghanistan which Iranian entity is responsible, but we have intercepted weapons in Afghanistan headed for the Taliban that were made in Iran," Pace told a group of reporters over breakfast.

He said the weapons, including mortars and C-4 plastic explosives, were intercepted in Kandahar province in southern Afghanistan within the past month. He did not describe the quantity of intercepted materials or say whether it was the first time Americans forces had found Iranian-made arms in that country.

Asked about Pace's remarks, a Pentagon spokesman, Army Col. Gary Keck, said he had not heard of previous instances of Iranian weaponry being found in Afghanistan but he was not certain this was the first time.

With regard to Iranian activities in Iraq, Pace said it is clear that Quds Force members are involved in the network that supplies materials to make roadside bombs, which are a leading killer of U.S. troops in Iraq.

"We know that there are munitions that were made in Iran that are in Iraq and in Afghanistan," he said, adding that it also is clear that the Quds Force reports to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, which reports directly to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"We surmise from that one of two things: Either the leadership of the country knows what their armed forces are doing, or they don't know. In either case that's a problem," Pace said.

Learn more about available Special Operations opportunities.

 

[Trooper Hale]

The Iranians wouldnt do that. They'r a friendly, peace loving nation with no inclination to affect the politics of the rest of the middle east....I heard their President say it so it must be true.

Seriously though, something really has to be done. We know that the Iranians are supplying insurgents in Iraq, now Afghanistan. Its a joke that they can get away with this. People are being killed by Iranian made weapons but nothing is being done. The UN needs to pull its finger out, the media need to publicise this and people need to rip into the Iranians. Make it clear we dont agree or something. At least something.

 

[CrazyCanuck]

Not gonna happen Hale, the western public has gone soft and the rest of the playground is grabbing sticks and stones while we fidget with words. We're not gonna drop a single propaganda leaflet on Iran much less a bomb.

 

[geo]

To date, the Iranian politico types have been all smiley and nice conciliatory behavior.  You<d need a smoking gun and even then, I feel that the international public won<t believe the evidence as presented...........

Sigh!

 

[KevinB]

Smoking gun -- dude -- we've been seizing this shit for years.

I've seen crates of BRAND new AK's, RPG's grenades and even Suface to Air missles.

The fact is the sheeple of the west dont want (nor have the guts) to confront the menace that is Iran.

IMHO Bush should have gone into Iran way before Iraq.

 

[geo]

+1 I6

also... if Bush had gone into Iran, Sadam would have volunteered to help

 

[KevinB]

Saddam's help = USS Stark...

Dont get me wrong I am a firm beleiver in OIF, I would have prefered to do in Iran first though.  I'm planning for OOIF (Operation Other I Freedom) - I plan on getting in on the ground floor of that one 

 

[midget-boyd91]

They'r a friendly, peace loving nation with no inclination to affect the politics of the rest of the middle east....I heard their President say it so it must be true.

I've also heard him say that Israel will be "removed" from the map in one great storm.

To date, the Iranian politico types have been all smiley and nice

Arresting and confining (or giving the orders to do so) British sailors and Marines is hardly something that I could call nice.

The fact is the sheeple of the west dont want (nor have the guts) to confront the menace that is Iran.------I'm planning for OOIF (Operation Other I Freedom) - I plan on getting in on the ground floor of that one 

The west right now is obviously on the edge with Iran. Polls taken withing the first 2-3 days of the arrest of the British last month showed that more than half of the population who took the polls would have supported direct military action. I know polls aren't usually something to base a statement on, but when 9 polls out of 10 are against any military action anywhere and then this one shows up with the majority supporting, It stands out.

Now, about OOIF and your plans on getting in on the ground floor..... Would you be remaining as a "long haired civy" for that one too?

 

[midget-boyd91]

Picked up off of Cnn.com 
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/04/18/iran.army.reut/index.html

TEHRAN, Iran (Reuters) -- Iran's army will "cut off the hand" of any attacker and is at the ready to fulfil its defensive duties, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday during an annual military parade.

Iran is embroiled in a row with the West over its nuclear ambitions. The United States, which says Iran is trying to build an atomic bomb, has said it wants a diplomatic resolution to the standoff but has not ruled out military action if that fails.

"The army stands against any aggressor and will cut off its hand," the president said in a televised address before a parade involving troops, tanks, missiles and other military hardware.

MORE ON LINK

 

[a_majoor]

Getting in on the ground floor for OOIF will probably involve aircraft, cruise missiles and membership in various "ski teams". Don't get your hopes up too much one way or the other........

 

[KevinB]

Art -- I know some guys who drove into Iraq on day 1 -- softskin cars and no weapons, they addapted and overcame.
  Between Morpheus32, BigRed and I, I am fairly positive we can source everything one would need to run 1) PMC 2) an Insurgency in Iran  ;D

 

[Mike Baker]

Between Morpheus32, BigRed and I, I am fairly positive we can source everything one would need to run 1) PMC 2) an Insurgency in Iran  ;D

Can I help 

Saw this on yahoo news

VIENNA, Austria -  Iran has started enriching small amounts of uranium gas at its underground nuclear plant and is running more than 1,300 of the centrifuges used in the process, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog document obtained Wednesday.

Here is the link http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070418/ap_on_re_eu/nuclear_iran

 

[geo]

Hmmm.... They've started to show on the news, flashbacks of the time when Israel settled the nuclear issue with Syria... is this some subliminal way of preparing us for the day when someone does it again?

 

[retiredgrunt45]

Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski (ret.), a veteran of the Pentagon with firsthand experience of the administration’s cherry-picking of intelligence, reveals why Bush thinks he can win a war with Iran, why few politicians are serious about withdrawal and why “when they call Iraq a success, they mean it.”

http://www.truthdig.com/interview/item/20070227_pentagon_whistleblower_on_the_coming_war_with_iran/

Not sure how much credence this story holds, but a good read just the same.

 

[Benny]

I've also heard him say that Israel will be "removed" from the map in one great storm.

...and they are walking down the track to getting their nuclear eraser.

God help Israel and the middle east in general if they succeed. The UN is near useless, the US isn't about to go after Iran with Iraq still going on, and the Iranians know it. Sheesh, the UN can't even properly handle Sudan, what is the likelyhood of effectively handling Iran?

 

[Kirkhill]

Quote from: tomahawk6 on May 19, 2007, 10:02:10
I wonder if Iran has a part to play in this incident ?


Perhaps it has something to do with this:


Quote
From The TimesMay 19, 2007

Afghan soldiers mass on border, ready and willing to take on old foe

..... in the remote border district of ’Ali Kheyl in eastern Afghanistan, Afghan security forces have found themselves pitted against an older and bigger enemy: Pakistan.

Clashes between the two neighbours – two of the West’s biggest allies in the War on Terror – began here last Sunday morning when Paki-stani forces fired on an Afghan post at Toorgawe, a strategic point on the border. The fighting is the most serious of its kind for years.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article1811094.ece

Which in turn maybe related to:
France negotiating the release of its hostage (and its hostage alone) by promising to withdraw
And German indicating it thought we were too tough on the Taliban
An Offer of 10,000 fighters loyal to a Northern Warlord in the defence ministry to go clean out the Taliban in Pakistani tribal areas
Afghans and Pakistanis clashing over the Durand Line fence the Pakistanis are building
Canadians moving M777s to Spin Boldak on the Border
Musharraf losing control
Urdu speaking Pakistanis from India and Musharraf supporters clashing with Punjabi speaking muslims and supporters of the Chief Justice all clashing with ISI and the Pashtuns and the Tribes fighting for advantage and Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif angling to come back out of exile and the Sikhs still looking for a homeland and Kashmir-Jammu still in dispute and the Baluchis looking to break away from both Tehran and Islamabad and the Marsh Arabs  of Iran and Iraq looking to reestablish local ties and fighting amongst themselves and blowing up Tehran facilities and Tehran students and labour and women demonstrating against Khamenei and Ahmadinejad and Kurds fighting in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey to establish a state of their own and Shiites and Sunnis in Al Anbar and Diyalla forming their own US sponsored "official" militias to take on Al Qaeda in Iraq and thugs in general and Hezbollah in Lebanon siding with the Baathists in Syria and the Christians in Lebanon siding with the Sunnis and the Israeli government siding with Fatah in Gaza against Hamas which in turn gets support from some of the more fundamentalist Jewish sects and Canadian left wing Christian church groups and radical socialist groups with ties to Moscow and Peking.............

I wrote the above out of frustration.  It has been running through my mind ever since.

Rather than being a stream-of-consciousness litany of confusion and chaos is this actually the phase that Churchill might have described as the "End of the Beginning"?

From Turkey to Pakistan (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan) none of the governments can be sure of the "respect" of their subjects.  The fear of authority has gone.  Smaller entities and junior leaders in the communities now have a voice - even if it is a violent voice. 

At a less philosophical level, a more practical level, those local junior leaders include many that are willing to make deals and some are idealistic enough to want to cooperate for a new future.  As well, in the chaos it becomes easier for our own agitators and intelligence agents to operate.  Borders have virtually disappeared.

As much as the Iraqis are concerned about the activities of the Iranians in Basrah the Tehran Iranians are concerned about family and tribal ties eliminating the border between their Arabs and the Basrah Arabs.  While they may be blowing up British troops in Basrah they are also hanging "anti-social criminals" in Abadan as well as most of their other border towns.  Coincidentally these areas also are reporting bombings of government buildings and assassination attempts on local officials.  Not to mention demonstrations in the street.

In Iraq "Al Qaeda" seems to be in the process of being squeezed into Diyallah with the Tribes taking a hand against them.

In Syria the government seems to be very worried about this Hariri investigation - the lengths to which they have gone to derail appear to include fomenting one war and trying to foment another.

Lebanon's Army is pushing back and Hezbollah hasn't yet taken a firm position.

Turkey seems to be very unlikely to be going far down the Islamist path.

In Afghanistan the game's in the balance.

In Pakistan it seems there might be room for a rebalancing there.

In this case maybe chaos isn't a bad thing..... On the other hand maybe that is me just whistling past the graveyard.

One thing that seems likely - any successful attempt to bring order out of chaos is not going to happen as a result of a grand plan and a glorious leader - its going to be more like polishing boots.....small circles.

 

[exspy]

Kirkhill,

I wish I had seen this thread earlier because I today wrote a quick and short response to your initial note at its original location.  My response went something like this;
QUOTE:

Kirkhill,

I am quickly becoming a fan.  You have provided yet another brilliant analysis (which simply means that I agree with you).  While most observers want to look at the situation in SW Asia and the Middle East as a high stakes game of poker it is, in reality, an unsupervised round of 52 pick-up.  Poker has rules, strategies and a definable winner.  The other is unorganized, sophomoric and ambiguous.  This is why, in my opinion, western political solutions based on sound foreign relation principles and rationally thought out compromises do not necessarily succeed.  The proponents are playing the wrong game.  Think tribalism and not nationalism.  At the end of the round it's not the best hand who wins but the one with the most cards who 'believes' they won.

PS:  Kirkhill, did you at one time work for one of our Cousin's?

UNQUOTE.

I know my response is not in the same league as your postings (including this one), but it brought to mind an observation that I would like to share with you.  Would an editorial writer sitting in London, England about 100 years ago not have written almost the exact same thing about the exact same regions of the world as we are writing about today?  With the exception of the existence of Israel weren't all of the conflicts, hatreds and prejudices that are practiced today in existence then?  Conversely won't they be in existence 100 years from now?

Our generation was raised in an era of great wars, both hot and cold.  We have come to believe that this was the norm of international conflict; wars fought by mass armies resulting in unconditional surrenders and complete and total victories.  Nations and coalitions of nations lead by great statesman determining the future of other nations through their great actions.  The true nature of human existence has been however, what we are finding ourselves faced with now; the continuing conflict of tribe versus tribe.  We as a society sit and remain bewildered asking ourselves not only why do these people fight each other but also our obviously well intentioned attempts to foster peace and bring democracy to them, or rather to their country.  We ask why they continue to ignore the western concept of, and the inherent benefits of, nationalism, never for one moment even considering that perhaps by doing so we insult what they consider to be of utmost importance.

Most of the examples of conflict provided in your two articles can be be viewed as tribe vs tribe as opposed to nation vs nation.

Maybe Kipling was, after all, right?

I'm not sure how to end this because I do not have any suggestions on how to end hatred in the fertile crescent.  But I have begun to ask myself the following question with regard to improving the lot of the Afghan people; 'if there is no nation to build, than what good can nation building do?'.  Like you I think any progress in the area will come, as you so aptly put it, from making 'small circles'.  I also think these small circles will have to be applied at the tribal level because regardless of what we hold to be true for ourselves, that is the reality which the West is facing.

 

[Chilly]

Kirkhill and exspy,

While that may indeed be one of the longest run on sentences that I have ever read, it does more or less sum up the situation(s) that remains at the heart of said region.

In my own preparation's for a upcoming deployment, I read an article titled It's the Tribes, Stupid in it Mr. Steven Pressfield the author makes the following statement and I believe it to be an extremely important one for anyone to try to understand what is exactly going on the region.

"For two years I've been researching a book about Alexander the Great's counter-guerrilla campaign in Afghanistan, 330-327 B.C. What struck me most powerfully is that that war is a dead ringer for the ones we're fighting today – even though Alexander was pre-Christian and his enemies were pre-Islamic."

Although Mr. Pressfield appears to be American (my opinion only), I think that he is very accurate in his other statements within the article as well. Despite the fact that it is only his commentary on the situation and not an academic article I would be interested to see what other people think of the article.

Furthermore, I believe that you are also right in your assessment exspy; we are in the middle of something that has nothing to do with a nation, despite what the media and governments say. Since the drawing of the Durand line on a map by Sir Mortimer Durand in 1893. It has been a sore point for not only the Pashtun and their idea of a greater Pashtunistan, but it also separated the Baluch tribe.  We have seen that this is still a sore point, in recent weeks as Pakistan has tried to erect a fence along the line; while the Afghans are at the same time pulling it down in some areas resulting in more cross border fighting. something that I don't think Afghanistan or even Pakistan can afford to deal with just right now.

http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/pressfield_tribes.htm

Chilly

 

[Kirkhill]

exspy - you are over kind.  But I believe firmly that this is the way of that part of the world - over 5000 years of invasion and counter-invasion, coupled with defensible terrain and/or mobility has resulted in a fractured society where the only thing you can count on is your immediate family.  Even if they stab you in the back you understand them.

You brought up Kipling - this is one of his - originally written in a Canadian context.

"The Stranger within my gate,
He may be true or kind,
But he does not talk my talk-
I cannot feel his mind.
I see the face and the eyes and the mouth,
But not the soul behind.

"The men of my own stock,
They may do ill or well,
But they tell the lies I am wonted to,
They are used to the lies I tell;
And we do not need interpreters
When we go to buy and sell.

"The Stranger within my gates,
He may be evil or good,
But I cannot tell what powers control-
What reasons sway his mood;
Nor when the Gods of his far-off land
Shall repossess his blood.

"The men of my own stock,
Bitter bad they may be,
But, at least they hear the things I hear,
And see the things I see;
And whatever I think of them and their likes
They think of the likes of me.

This was my father's belief
And this is also mine:
Let the corn be all one sheaf-
And the grapes be all one vine,
Ere our children's teeth are set on edge
By bitter bread and wine."

Canada has spent more than 150 years fighting against those sentiments - however I believe that those verses fairly represent the sentiments of those people of the ancient cultures of those mountains and deserts.

And chilly - my apologies for the run on sentence - James Joyce got the better of me. 

PS Pressfield looks like one to add to my reading list. Thanks.

 

[Kirkhill]

Forgive me one and all.  I am going to take advantage of Mike's generosity and your patience and post this blurb/rant I have spent the last day playing with.
I swear that the statements made without qualification come from articles I have read.  I don't swear to the authenticity of every article but most were from what I consider reputable sources.
If you want to challenge me on a point I shall endeavour to find the reference.

Short form for those disinclined to read the whole thing - I don't think things are nearly as bad as the press would have it seem.  

Ignore at your pleasure.


Pollyanna’s Small Circles – Order out of Chaos

The Centre: Iraq

Principal Problems in Iraq

Al Sadr and the Shiite Mehdi Army
Concentrated in Tigris Valley
Primary areas of operations: Sadr City and Basra
Iranian Backed – but which Iranians?

Sadr News

Sadr lost control of his many splinter groups
Left Iraq for Iran
Exposed his splinter groups to Coalition and ISF forces
Withdraws his Ministers from Maliki’s Government
Returns to Iraq
Immediately his principle lieutenant in Basra is killed by Brits and ISF
Anti-Mehdi army activity by Brits and ISF picks up
Brits commended by Iraqis for success in their primary mission – keeping the pipeline open
70 Iraqi Policemen in Kut resign because “they are not sufficiently equipped” to handle Mehdi threats.
Raids in Sadr City by US and ISF since Sadr’s return have resulted in lost commanders, intelligence and operating bases.
Maliki replaces Sadr’s ministers with his own “Technocrats”
People close to Sadr are offering opinions to the press that are at odds with his own words

Sadr calling for his army to stop targeting the ISF
Also calls for Sunni-Shia resolution
Also calls for a new model of operations for the Sadrist movement

He has been undercut by 2nd Tier sheikhs in Anbar and Diyalla organizing their  Awakenings of the tribes to support Maliki.

These Sheikhs (guesswork) are seeing their opportunity because the 1st tier Sheikhs with whom Saddam worked have forfeited much of their authority by bugging out to Jordan and Syria and leaving their tribesmen to face the violence themselves – much of the violence stirred up by allies of their own Sheikhs.  

Some “In Country” Sheikhs are burying the hatchet on decades old quarrels that have absolutely nothing to do with Americans, Saddam or religion – more of a combination of Hatfield and McCoy  feuds and the Sopranos.

Because many of the tribes have both Sunni and Shia members, particularly true in Diyalla apparently, then these “Sunni” Sheikhs have influence amongst potential supporters of Sadr.

Sadr is losing ground.

Sheikhs are acting because political opportunity presents itself (can move up and displace out-of-country superiors) and continuing violence is bad for business.

They are being actively supported by General Petraeus and a British sidekick name of Lamb.
Principle aim is to allow locals to control local turf and keep out “foreigners”.  Deal with the natural leaders.

The Sheikhs will work with Maliki and the Coalition to mutual advantage.

Al Qaeda in Iraq
Concentrated in the Euphrates Valley
Primary areas of operations: Al Anbar, Diyalla, Sulaymaniyah and Baghdad
Syrian Backed?

This is the principle organization for “foreigners”,  especially Sunni Wahhabists.
Claimed associations and affiliations with Bin Laden and Zawahari.
Noted for the most gruesome crimes.
Never took a Dale Carnegie course
Successfully manage to alienate all allies
Especially true of the Anbar Sheikhs.

These are the people that the Sheikhs organized against, with the support of Petraeus, to form their own protected communities with their own authorized police forces.  
From these secure bases Al Qaeda in Iraq appears to have been backed into Diyalla and separated from Syria.  
Al Qaeda in Iraq is affiliated with the Islamic State in Iraq.

The Islamic State in Iraq is dedicated to Wahhabist Sharia law.  Likewise it makes no friends amongst the tribes.

Al Duri Baathists
Concentrated in the Euphrates Valley
Primary areas of operations: Al Anbar, Diyalla, Sulaymaniyah and Baghdad
Syrian Backed?

At the time of the invasion the US issued a deck of 55 cards with the names of the most wanted Baathists on them.
These are the people still at large:

(6/55)  Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri  Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) Vice-Chairman / Northern Region Commander / Inner Circle/ Deputy Secretary General, Ba’th Party Regional Command / Deputy Commander, Armed Forces
(7/55) Hani abd al-Latif al-Tilfah al-Tikriti  Director, Special Security Organization (SSO) And Responsible For Security And Investigations (MUDIRIYAH NUMBER TWO); Assistant To Qusay; Saddam's Nephew
(14/55) Sayf al-Din Fulayyih Hasan Taha al-Rawi  Iraqi Republican Guard (RG) Chief Of Staff
(15/55) Rafi abd al-Latif Tilfah al-Tikriti  Director, Directorate Of General Security (DGS)
(16/55) Tahir Jalil Habbush al-Tikriti  Director, Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS)
(21/55) Rukan Razuki abd al-Ghafar Sulayman al-Majid al-Tikriti (A.K.A. Rukan Razuki abd al-Ghafar Sulayman al-Nasiri) Saddam’s Senior Bodyguard/head-Tribal Affairs/inner Circle
(40/55) abd al-Baqi abd al-Karim al-Abdallah al-Sadun Central Ba'ath Party Regional Command Chairman, Diyala Region
(49/55) Rashid Taan Kazim Central Ba'ath Party Regional Chairman, Anbar Governorate

One of the more useful aspects of Iraqi naming systems is the identification of hometowns in the names.  Here we see 4 people from Saddam’s home town of Tikrit and one from Dur (a village near Tikrit) in Salahudin.  The list includes Saddam’s No. 2 and Northern Region Commander, the Directors of the Special Security Organization, General Security and the Iraqi Intelligence Service as well as the Chief of Staff of the Republican Guard and the heads of the Diyala and Anbar regions as well as the head of Tribal Affairs.

And where have many of the current problems been?  With the Tribes of Salahudin, Diyala and Anbar.  Coincidence in geography suggests commonality of interests between Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic Army, the Baathists and the Council of Muslim Scholars (mouthpiece of the out-of-country Sheikhs?)

A couple of recent developments in the area:  Al Duri is rumoured to be in discussion with Al Maliki on how to come to a conclusion on this;  and today there is a report of Red on Red fighting in Amiriyah, Baghdad between Al Qaeda in Iraq and their allies in the Islamic State in Iraq as they are taken on by the Islamic Army and JAM, both organizations known to have heavy representation from the Baathist Intelligence and Military communities.  In other words the organizations represented by Al Duri and the Tikrit buddies that are still at large.

Suggestion (Guess): Having been undercut by the Awakenings in Anbar, Salahudin and Diyalla, and being trapped in Diyalla with only an Iranian escape route, Al Duri is looking to cut a deal.  Part of Maliki’s price?  “Help to clean up the mess with all these foreign thugs you sponsored.”  Al Duri may have started on it ahead of a rumoured set-piece clean up of Diyalla by the ISF and Coalition forces and, more importantly, The Salvation Fronts.  Locals playing by “house” rules.

PKK
Concentrated on the Turkish Border
Primary areas of operations: Turkey
Independent Kurds?

Apparently some 5000 Kurds of which some 2000 are active in Turkey against the Turkish Government.  They are a problem to the US, to Iraq, to the Kurdish Governments in Iraq and to Turkey (as well as NATO and Europe).  About the only people these Kurds would not be a problem too would be the Russians.  The Iranians may be willing to risk long term pain for short term gain by working with these people in the near term.

As a counter, and in line with turning Anbar security over to local Sunni Sheikhs, the Iraqi Government and the Coalition have turned security in the three Kurdish provinces of Iraq to the local governments and the Kurdish Peshmergas.  

Presumably the Americans would rather have Kurds killing Kurds to keep the peace up there so that the Turks aren’t “required” to intervene.

Which brings us round to the situation in the Left Flank nations.