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Iran Super Thread- Merged

I can't beleive theyve gone this long with all trash their president is talking and nothing has happened yet.

He was shooting off about the jews in another article, and questioned whether or not the holocaust even happened. If somebody told my country they were going to wipe us off the map, I would take that threat as 1 step down from being invaded.

Israel will have dropped the ball if they allow Iran to produce nuclear weapons. No good can come of this, at all.
 
Its not like they (Israel) haven't launched a preemptive attack to stave off nuclear proliferation before.
 
Looks like Israel has replied in kind.  Perhaps the pegging of an rough timeline of when to expect preemption by IDF forces will cool the rhetoric down a notch in Tehran.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47848

WARS AND RUMORS OF WARS
Israel plans strike
on nuclear Iran
Sharon tells military to prepare
for attack on key sites in March

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: December 11, 2005
1:00 a.m. Eastern



© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has ordered his defense forces to plan for a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities by the end of March - the time intelligence sources say Tehran will be able to begin producing nuclear weapons.

The directive came after Iran's President Mahmoud Amadinejad this week suggested Israel should be moved to Europe.

Iran has been ignoring warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency about its plans to continue enriching uranium.

In early March, Mohamed El-Baradei, the head of the IAEA, will present his next report on Iran. El-Baradei, who received the Nobel peace prize yesterday, warned that the world was "losing patience" with Iran.

Defense sources in Israel believe the end of March to be the "point of no return," after which Iran will have the technical expertise to enrich uranium in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear warhead in two to four years.

"Israel - and not only Israel - cannot accept a nuclear Iran," Sharon warned recently. "We have the ability to deal with this and we're making all the necessary preparations to be ready for such a situation."

The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the Israeli defense ministry to the chief of staff, according to a report today in the London Sunday Times.

Israeli intelligence has reportedly identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the IAEA, according to the Times.

If a military operation is approved, Israel will reportedly use a combination of air and ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling Tehran's nuclear program for years..

The Times reports Israel would likely call on its top special forces brigade, Unit 262 and the F-15I strategic 69 Squadron, which can strike Iran and return to Israel without refueling.

Russia last week signed an estimated $1 billion contract to sell Iran advanced Tor-M1 systems capable of destroying guided missiles and laser-guided bombs from aircraft.

"Once the Iranians get the Tor-M1, it will make our life much more difficult," an Israeli air force source told the Times. "The installation of this system can be relatively quick and we can't waste time on this one."
 
If a strike is to occur it must happen before the Bushehr site is fueled otherwise you risk spreading radioactivity all over. The real problem is hitting the enrichment facilities.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/nuke-fac.htm

http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/040812.htm
 
The "Real" real problem is no one knows what "other" facilities exist, although it is strongly suspected the Iranians dispersed many of their sites and facilities to prevent being rudely pre empted. It is also strongly suspected that many of the facilities have been hardened or moved into deep underground tunnels and bunkers. Doing a pre emptive strike with nuclear weapons to ensure you destroy or neutralize such facilities is probably asking for far more trouble than its worth.

There is also the final problem, as outlined in the movie "The Usual Suspects":

Kujan: "Keyser Soze was standing right there. Why didn't you shoot him?"

Verbal: "I couldn't. What if I missed?"

 
I wonder if it is possible to strike a nuclear plant with tactical nukes but have it seem like a conventional attack as the destruction and nuclear fallout of the plant would possibly mask the tac nuke?
 
The nuclear release of high energy thermal and ionizing radiation is very distinctive, and can be reliably recorded with various means, including siesmographs (distinctive trace unlike an earthquake), radios (sudden wash of static over the airwaves as the EMP pulse moves past) and various sensors in the air and space. An atomic explosion is like nothing else, and unless this can somehow be disguised as an industrial accident ("It looks like Hassan forgot to engage the saftey when he wired up the firing circuit...."), there will be no ambiguity as to what happened or who did it.

Why we are now in this predicament?

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/singer200512120837.asp

Israel vs. Iran
Can the international community get in on this fight?

By Saul Singer

What a perfect arrangement: The only country that every country has a right to condemn can be relied upon to do the world's dirty work. This is the underlying mindset as the West contemplates a nuclear Iran.

When push comes to shove, the Israeli air force will take care of the problem, so the world can go into spasms of righteous indignation while enjoying the fireworks.

There are, however, a number of flies in the ointment of this convenient scenario. Journalists and policymakers, like generals, tend to fight the last war, so everyone has in mind the 1981 Osirak operation, where Israel dealt a fatal blow to Saddam Hussein's dreams of mass destruction by destroying his nuclear reactor. But the Iranians are not idiots, and they have taken into account the possibility of an Israeli air strike in designing their program.

A new report by the U.S. Army War College, with a chapter on Israel drafted by former IDF Brig.-Gen. Shlomo Brom, finds that Israel cannot launch a sustained air campaign that will reliably destroy a series of hardened, well-defended, and dispersed targets. In order to avoid the airspace of intermediate countries, Israeli aircraft would have to fly more than 900 miles â ” refueling over the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.

But let's say, by some miracle, it could be done. And let's even say, as Brom speculates, that Iran would not be able to tell Hezbollah to launch the thousands of missiles pointed at Israel's north because Israel would retaliate against Syria, possibly toppling that regime.

Still, the question remains, why is little Israel being left to fight the world's war? The answer is not just that life's unfair. The real answer is that the enlightened post-modern European refusal to lift a finger â ” let alone a gun â ” to defend itself is consigning us all to a dark age of terrorism and war.

The irony here is that it is precisely those who claim to believe most in a borderless world ruled by international law who are ushering in a new Hobbesian era. How is one to explain Europe's obsession with the United Nations on the one hand, and its emasculation of the principles on which that organization was founded?

If Europe, through the U.N. and in partnership with the U.S., simply followed the U.N. Charter, we would be living in a very different world today. That charter (Ch. 1, Art. 1, Para. 1, first sentence) states the U.N.'s purpose: "To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace..." (emphasis added).

Does this ring any bells? Is there a state that is a greater threat to international peace than Iran? How much terrorism does a state have to sponsor, how many member states does it have to threaten with destruction, and how far does it have to get in obtaining the ultimate means to carry out such threats before the collective obligations of free nations under the Charter are remembered?

The nations that wrap themselves most tightly in international law are actually those responsible for turning that law, and its aspirations for the world, into a dead letter. As in the case of Iraq, by refusing to join the U.S. in effective non-military collective action against Iran, Europe is making military action or an Iranian victory inevitable.

It is in this context that I found it difficult to watch European ambassadors placing a wreath on the spot where a suicide bomber killed five Israelis, including 38-year-old Eliya Rozen, outside a mall in Netanya. On Tuesday, at his wife's funeral, Gadi Rozen spoke of their three childrens' questions when he told them their mother was dead. Roi, the five-year-old asked, "Who will be my mother?"

What wreath will these ambassadors lay if Israel gets hit by a nuclear weapon? Or if Israelis are killed in a war to destroy Iran's nuclear program? Or if 9/11s continue to multiply, including in Europe, because al Qaeda enjoys the tailwind that a nuclear Iran would bring?

Perhaps it is pointless to appeal to European sympathies for Israel when these same nations won't even defend themselves. Most bizarre, however, is that Europe, by refusing to impose draconian sanctions on Iran, is guaranteeing either a huge victory for the terror network or military action by the US or Israel. In other words, under the cloak of international law, Europe is bringing either the aggression of its enemies or unilateralist defensive actions of exactly the sort it claims to most want to prevent.

Those diplomats, no doubt, had the best of intentions. But with all due respect, spare us the wreaths. Join us and defend yourselves. We are not your hired hitmen; don't depend on us to save you. Take your beloved international law seriously and throw the book at Iran.

It may not be too late, with common will, to force Iran to back down without firing a shot. And if it is too late for peaceful means, that shot should be fired together, legally, in the name of international peace and security.

â ” Saul Singer is editorial-page editor of the Jerusalem Post and author of Confronting Jihad: Israel's Struggle and the World After 9/11. This piece first appeared in the Jerusalem Post and is reprinted with permission.   
 
  http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/singer200512120837.asp
       

 
The Sunday Times - World

The Sunday Times December 11, 2005

Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran

Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, Washington
ISRAEL'S armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.

The order came after Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was operating enrichment facilities, believed to be small and concealed in civilian locations.

Iran's stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over nuclear inspections and aggressive rhetoric from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, who said last week that Israel should be moved to Europe, are causing mounting concern.

The crisis is set to come to a head in early March, when Mohamed El-Baradei, the head of the IAEA, will present his next report on Iran. El-Baradei, who received the Nobel peace prize yesterday, warned that the world was "losing patience" with Iran.

A senior White House source said the threat of a nuclear Iran was moving to the top of the international agenda and the issue now was: "What next?" That question would have to be answered in the next few months, he said.

Defence sources in Israel believe the end of March to be the "point of no return" after which Iran will have the technical expertise to enrich uranium in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear warhead in two to four years.

"Israel - and not only Israel - cannot accept a nuclear Iran," Sharon warned recently. "We have the ability to deal with this and we're making all the necessary preparations to be ready for such a situation."

The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the Israeli defence ministry to the chief of staff. Sources inside special forces command confirmed that "G" readiness - the highest stage - for an operation was announced last week.

Gholamreza Aghazadeah, head of the Atomic Organisation of Iran, warned yesterday that his country would produce nuclear fuel. "There is no doubt that we have to carry out uranium enrichment," he said.

He promised it would not be done during forthcoming talks with European negotiators. But although Iran insists it wants only nuclear energy, Israeli intelligence has concluded it is deceiving the world and has no intention of giving up what it believes is its right to develop nuclear weapons.

A "massive" Israeli intelligence operation has been underway since Iran was designated the "top priority for 2005", according to security sources.

Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the the IAEA.

Since Israel destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, "it has been understood that the lesson is, don't have one site, have 50 sites", a White House source said.

If a military operation is approved, Israel will use air and ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling Tehran's nuclear programme for years, according to Israeli military sources.

It is believed Israel would call on its top special forces brigade, Unit 262 - the equivalent of the SAS - and the F-15I strategic 69 Squadron, which can strike Iran and return to Israel without refuelling.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1920074,00.html

Thoughts?
 
If this happens, I wonder how all the Arab countries will react to Israel attacking Iran.

 
MikeL said:
If this happens, I wonder how all the Arab countries will react to Israel attacking Iran.

Hard to say.  I'm not sure most of the Arab world are fans of Iran, but at the same time as they're united by religion in their attitude toward Israel it could nevertheless be problematic.  I'd have to admit that I wouldn't want to find out, but if Israel decides this is their course of action against Iran, it's not as though we have any ability to stop it!
 
I think for the civilian populations reading something like this is frightening food for thought. 
However, all governments prepare for various scenarios (disaster, military, economic) all the time
and this article may only state the obvious. I'm sure Iran has counter scenarios developed for
years and years.
 
Just read in Jane's that the Americans are improving the F15E by improving range and avionics.  This would make it an E'+' or even an F model.

First customer?  Israel.  They are also cooperating very closely improved anti missile technology such as a vastly improved patriot.

This is a scary road we're on.
 
Well Iran isnt showing any signs of backing down or stopping its nuclear production.... so...
something has to be done before they are nuclear capable..... right?
 
The Middle East isn't monolithic, and most Arabs consider the Iranians to be "Persians". There is also the religious aspect, the Saudis consider the Iranians to be heretics (and the favor is returned), while the Ba'athists are more interested in a secular sort of dictatorship.

While there will be the usual cries of outrage if Isreal is compelled to strike Iran, there will also be a few sighs of relief, and maybe a few indrawn breaths when people realize what Isreal is capable of.
 
a_majoor said:
The Middle East isn't monolithic, and most Arabs consider the Iranians to be "Persians". There is also the religious aspect, the Saudis consider the Iranians to be heretics (and the favor is returned), while the Ba'athists are more interested in a secular sort of dictatorship.

While there will be the usual cries of outrage if Isreal is compelled to strike Iran, there will also be a few sighs of relief, and maybe a few indrawn breaths when people realize what Isreal is capable of.

All Arabs consider the Iranians to be Persians (they certainly don't consider them to be Arabs - and Kurds are something else - Iranian or not). Some Shi'a Arabs may accept them as co-religionists, but Arabs in general believe they are the roots of the faith. The Persians came later.
 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/15/AR2005121501428.html

Good article. Essentially the EU is unable to influence an Iran that is determined to obtain nuclear weapons. That leaves two options do nothing or strike. Thats all well and good for Europe or the US, but Israel cannot afford to sustain an Iranian first strike. The best defense is a good offense or so the adage goes. Israel was surprised in 73 when the arabs launched their Ramadan war and paid a high price as a result. Israel for its very survival must strike Iran's nuclear weapons program - if it can obtain the intelligence to do so.
 
MikeL said:
If this happens, I wonder how all the Arab countries will react to Israel attacking Iran.

My guess is that there will be a great deal of condemnation, but very little action; "Arab nationalism" has never really resulted in a body capable of unified action. The Palestinian conflict showed that aside from rhetoric, the Arab nations did very little to aid their brethen; on the contrary, many of them used the situation to their advantage, seeing it as a way to gain both territory and prestige.
 
nULL said:
My guess is that there will be a great deal of condemnation, but very little action; "Arab nationalism" has never really resulted in a body capable of unified action. The Palestinian conflict showed that aside from rhetoric, the Arab nations did very little to aid their brethen; on the contrary, many of them used the situation to their advantage, seeing it as a way to gain both territory and prestige.

Something seems wrong with this. Maybe its the fact that Israel was involved in wars with multiple Arab nations in the Israeli War of Independence (1948 - 1949), the Six Day War (1967) the Yom Kippur War (1973), not to mention wars against Egypt in 1956 (Suez) and Syria in 1982 (Lebanon). Plus, the support many governments gave the Palesitinian Intifada, albeit only on a monetary, public relations level. Consecutive losses to the IDF pretty much limited what the Arabic neighbours could launch at the Israelis conventionally, and so have simply given in to supporting such groups as Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), which has been effective on different levels, more so than their military campaigns. However, if the Arab states can find in Iran, a leader as they once did with Egypt to lead the rhetoric and stepped-up offensive, and they continue to see the United States military caught up in Iraq, I would not be surprised if certain states found renewed animosity.
 
Worn Out Grunt said:
They are also cooperating very closely improved anti missile technology such as a vastly improved patriot.

This is a scary road we're on.

It is called the Arrow-2 and it is a lot bigger than the PAC-III.

The Iranian president has also proposed that Israel should ''be mouved'' to Canada,US or Britain.
 
Baloo said:
Something seems wrong with this. Maybe its the fact that Israel was involved in wars with multiple Arab nations in the Israeli War of Independence (1948 - 1949), the Six Day War (1967) the Yom Kippur War (1973), not to mention wars against Egypt in 1956 (Suez) and Syria in 1982 (Lebanon). Plus, the support many governments gave the Palesitinian Intifada, albeit only on a monetary, public relations level. Consecutive losses to the IDF pretty much limited what the Arabic neighbours could launch at the Israelis conventionally, and so have simply given in to supporting such groups as Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), which has been effective on different levels, more so than their military campaigns. However, if the Arab states can find in Iran, a leader as they once did with Egypt to lead the rhetoric and stepped-up offensive, and they continue to see the United States military caught up in Iraq, I would not be surprised if certain states found renewed animosity.

Yes, Israeil was involved in wars with multiple Arabic nations - perhaps because all had something to gain? Egypt and Syria (to name but 2) could have been motivated into action to prevent Trans-jordan's King Abdullah from laying claim to the Arab parts of Palestine. I'm curious as to why you think Arab nationalism is such a strengthening force; many of the Palestinian refugees in those camps are there because of other Arab nations' unwillingness to absorb their "brethen".   
 
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