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Instability In Pakistan- Merged Thread

Pick your poison.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122031186647388745.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Pakistan's Next President

Is a Category 5 Disaster
September 2, 2008
If there's a case to be made against democracy, few countries make it better than Pakistan.

On Saturday, Pakistani legislators will elect a new president to replace Pervez Musharraf, the general-turned-strongman who resigned the office last month.

In one corner there is Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a former journalist and one-time political prisoner of Mr. Musharraf who is nonetheless running as the candidate of the general's old party. Mr. Mushahid, probably the best of the bunch, stands next to no chance of winning.

In another corner there is Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, candidate of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party. Mr. Sharif -- whose record includes bankrupting his country, presiding over a disastrous military campaign against India, and attempting to implement Sharia law while awarding himself near-dictatorial powers -- has made it clear he intends to gut the powers of the presidency should he return to office.

And then there is Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and leader of the Pakistan People's Party. Mr. Zardari, who has compared himself to Jesus (an innocent accused of crimes he did not commit), is easily one of the most notorious figures in the long parade of horribles that make up the country's political history. He is, of course, expected to win Saturday's ballot handily.

Just how bad is Mr. Zardari? It would be a relief if it were true that he was merely suffering from dementia, a diagnosis offered by two New York psychiatrists last year. But that diagnosis seems to have been produced mainly with a view toward defending himself against corruption charges in a British court.

Mr. Zardari -- who earned the moniker "Mr. 10%" for allegedly demanding kickbacks during his wife's two terms in office -- has long been dogged by accusations of corruption. In 2003, a Swiss magistrate found him and Mrs. Bhutto guilty of laundering $10 million. Mr. Zardari has admitted to owning a 355-acre estate near London, despite coming from a family of relatively modest means and reporting little income at the time it was purchased. A 1998 report by the New York Times's John Burns suggests he may have made off with as much as $1.5 billion in kickbacks. This was at a time when his wife was piously claiming to represent the interests of Pakistan's impoverished masses and denouncing corrupt leaders who "leave the cupboard bare."

It's an open question whether Mr. Zardari will be more or less restrained in his behavior if he's elected: His return to politics has meant the dropping of all charges against him and the release of millions in frozen assets. (The presidency will also confer legal immunity.) That may make him one of the few men in Pakistan to get richer this year: The economy, which grew in an unprecedented way under Mr. Musharraf, has tanked under civilian management. The Karachi stock exchange has lost about a third of its value and the currency about a fifth in recent months. Markets often have better memories than voters.

It's also an open question whether Pakistan's increasingly dire security outlook will focus Mr. Zardari's mind on the urgent tasks of governance. Mr. Zardari has sought to parley himself internationally as a pro-Western candidate, and maybe he is. Yet over the weekend the Pakistani government agreed to stop its air strikes on the Taliban, in exchange for which Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, a religious party, agreed to throw its support to Mr. Zardari. The Taliban has used previous cease-fires to regroup and re-arm for operations against both Afghanistan and Islamabad.

Then there is al Qaeda, now openly endeavoring to use its last redoubts in Pakistan to take over the country. Last month, Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a long broadcast (in English, no less) denouncing Mr. Musharraf as an American tool and calling on Pakistan's army to come over to his side.

That call was unlikely to be heeded against Mr. Musharraf, who could count on the loyalty of his troops. But Mr. Zardari is a caricature of everything that's morally bankrupt with the country's Westernized elite, and thus an inviting propaganda target for al Qaeda and the Taliban. It doesn't help, either, that they are working fertile political soil: 71% of Pakistanis oppose cooperating with the U.S. in counterterrorism, and 51% oppose fighting the Taliban at all, according to a June poll.

Al Qaeda and the Taliban feed on chaos, and a Zardari presidency will almost certainly provide more of it. For Pakistanis, this is a self-inflicted wound and a rebuke to their democracy. For the rest of world, it's a matter of hoping that Pakistan will somehow muddle through. For now, however, this looks like a Category 5 hurricane, dark and vast and visible just offshore.

 
Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...n4409288.shtml

"Pakistan's top security officials on Wednesday were searching for clues that a "moderately important terrorist target" may have been hit when U.S. and/or NATO forces attacked three houses in a remote part of the country's border region with Afghanistan.

As many as 15 people were killed in the early morning strike Wednesday.

The operation took place near the village of Angor Adda in Pakistan's South Waziristan region - a notorious sanctuary for al Qaeda and Taliban militants. Eyewitnesses said the strike involved helicopter gunships.

South Waziristan and the adjoining North Waziristan regions are known to harbor fighters who routinely cross the border into Afghanistan to attack U.S. and other Western troops then return to the relative security of Pakistani soil.

Wednesday's attack was unusual in that it involved Western ground forces, a Pakistani security official told CBS News on condition of anonymity

Previous attacks on the Pakistani side of the border are believed to have been carried out primarily by CIA pilotless drones armed with hellfire missiles.

The reported use of ground troops prompted speculation that the attack was aimed at an important terrorist target.

"I don't know if there were any top targets. But there could well be moderately important terrorist targets," the security official told CBS. "If there was deployment of grounds troops, which involved a greater risk than sending in a pilotless drone, that suggests the attackers were probably looking for a specific terrorist target."

In Islamabad, a senior European diplomat from a NATO member country said initial information led him to believe the attack was carried out by a joint team of U.S. Special Forces and NATO troops based in Afghanistan, thought he could not immediately confirm the presence of ground forces.

The diplomat, who also spoke to CBS on condition of anonymity, said "the use of ground troops must be to either capture or kidnap someone important."

The CIA and other Western intelligence agencies are known to have scrutinized intelligence coming from North and South Waziristan in the past in their searched for some of al Qaeda's top leaders; most notably Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri.

The Pakistani security official who spoke to CBS News said Pakistani military and intelligence forces in the region had also carried out an intense search for al Qaeda's leaders as recently as last month, based on "information which provided to us with some new clues."

The Pakistani official refused to elaborate on the nature of that information but said "the situation in Waziristan remains of immense interest to all of us."
 
As usual, Bill Roggio has some good stuff, too, shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act.

The US military, with the possible cooperation of the Afghan military, may have conducted a special operations air assault across the border into Taliban-controlled South Waziristan on Wednesday, according to unconfirmed reports from Pakistan.

The initial report from a Geo TV correspondent indicated the casualties were taken after US helicopters launched missiles at three homes in the Barmal area of Angorada late at night.

The report later changed when the correspondent claimed the helicopters landed and troops dismounted, who then began searching homes. One witness told The Associated Press that "American and Afghan soldiers starting firing" on one family outside of their home. Soldiers then entered the home and others, and killed 15 people, including women and children. The raid was reported to have occurred in the village of Musa Nikow.

The Pakistani military confirmed an attack occurred in the region, AP reported but did not provide details. Two anonymous Pakistani intelligence officials said the attack occurred and claimed 19 were killed. The US military in Afghanistan said its forces were not involved, and the US embassy in Pakistan did not comment.

A rare raid

The US military command in Afghanistan can plausibly deny its forces were involved in such a raid, as the operation have been carried out by Special Forces teams. Task Force 88, the hunter-killer teams assigned to take down al Qaeda and the Taliban's command structure, does not report to the conventional command in Afghanistan.

A raid of this nature - the insertion of US special operations team inside Pakistani territory - is rare. This would be only the second reported raid of this nature since 2006. Nearly every other attack was conducted by unmanned US Predator aircraft or missile strikes from Afghanistan.

US special operation teams raided an al Qaeda camp in Danda Saidgai in North Waziristan in March 2006. The camp was run by the Black Guard, the al Qaeda elite praetorian guard for Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and other senior al Qaeda leaders.

The air assault resulted in the death of Imam Asad and several dozen members of the Black Guard. In addition to being the camp commander, Asad was a senior Chechen al Qaeda commander and associate of Shamil Basayev, the Chechen al Qaeda leader killed by Russian security forces in July 2006.

The insertion of US soldiers inside Pakistan is a risky venture. If this raid indeed occurred US intelligence must have believed that a senior-most al Qaeda or Taliban leader or leaders were present.

Increased activity

If confirmed the assault in South Waziristan would be the fourth cross-border attack since Aug. 20 and the 10th confirmed attack this year. Only 10 such strikes were recorded in 2006 and 2007 combined.

Four safe houses have been hit in South Waziristan, three have been hit in North Waziristan, and two have been targeted in Bajaur this year.

Three senior al Qaeda operatives have been killed in this year's strikes. Two Canadians of Arab origin were killed in a strike in strike in South Waziristan last weekend.

Abu Khabab al Masri, al Qaeda's bomb expert and weapons of mass destruction chief, was killed South Waziristan on July 28. Abu Sulayman Jazairi, al Qaeda's external operations chief, was killed in Bajaur on May 14. Abu Laith al Libi, a senior commander in Afghanistan and the leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, was killed in North Waziristan on Jan. 28.

While the strikes have disrupted al Qaeda's senior leadership, they have done little to disrupt the growth of al Qaeda and the Taliban in northwestern Pakistan.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, and allied terrorist groups have established 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

The Taliban has organized some of its fighters into military formations. Al Qaeda has reformed the notorious 055 Brigade, the Arab legion of al Qaeda fighters that was destroyed during the initial US assault in Afghanistan in late 2001. Additional al Qaeda brigades have been formed, intelligence officials informed The Long War Journal.

Foreign al Qaeda fighters have flocked to the Pakistani border regions. On July 23, Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani and his cabinet were told that more than 8,000 foreign fighters were operating in the tribal areas.



 
Staff we may need to merge these threads on raids into Pakistan because I think they are going to continue.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/09/us_airstrike_killed.php

US airstrike kills five al Qaeda operatives in North Waziristan
By Bill RoggioSeptember 5, 2008 8:38 AM

The US has conducted yet another cross-border strike in the badlands of Pakistan's tribal agencies. In the fifth cross-border strike in six days, unmanned aircraft operating from Afghanistan struck an al Qaeda safe house in the village of Gurwak in Taliban-controlled North Waziristan.

Five to seven people have been reported killed in the strike. AFP reported five "foreign militants" - a term used to describe al Qaeda operatives, were killed. The identity of those killed has not been disclosed as Pakistani security forces are attempting to reach the scene of the attack. Geo TV reported that four children and three women were killed in the strike.

The village of Gurwak is in territory run by the powerful Haqqani family. The Haqqanis are closely allied with the Taliban and al Qaeda. The Haqqanis run a parallel government in North Waziristan and conduct military and suicide operations in eastern Afghanistan. Siraj Haqqani, the son of Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani, has close ties to Osama bin Laden and is one of the most wanted terrorists in Afghanistan.

Cross-border strikes increase during 2008

The US has stepped up its attacks against al Qaeda and the Taliban's networks inside Pakistan over the past year. There have been 13 confirmed cross-border attacks by the US in Pakistan this year [see list below]. Five safe houses have been hit in North Waziristan, six have been hit in South Waziristan, and two have been targeted in Bajaur this year. Only 10 such cross-border strikes were recorded in 2006 and 2007 combined.

The attack tempo has intensified over the past week. The US has conducted five cross-border attacks inside Pakistan since Aug 31. Three of the strikes occurred in North Waziristan, and two in South Waziristan.

On Aug. 31, US forces conducted two attacks. Five al Qaeda and Taliban fighters, including two Canadians of Arab origin, were killed in an airstrike near Miramshah in South Waziristan. That same day, a strike on a Taliban safe house in North Waziristan killed six. Another attack on a home known to shelter al Qaeda operatives in North Waziristan on Sept. 4 killed four.

The most controversial strike involved special operation teams inserted by helicopters in a village in South Waziristan just one mile from the Afghan border on Sept. 3. This is the second recorded incident of the direct involvement of US ground troops in a raid inside Pakistan since 2006.

Background on this year's attacks

Three senior al Qaeda operatives have been confirmed killed during this year's cross-border strikes in Pakistan.

Abu Khabab al Masri, al Qaeda's bomb expert and weapons of mass destruction chief, was killed South Waziristan on July 28. Abu Sulayman Jazairi, al Qaeda's external operations chief, was killed in Bajaur on May 14. Abu Laith al Libi, a senior commander in Afghanistan and the leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, was killed in North Waziristan on Jan. 28.

While the strikes have disrupted al Qaeda's senior leadership, they have done little to disrupt the growth of al Qaeda and the Taliban in northwestern Pakistan.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, and allied terrorist groups have established 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

The Taliban has organized some of its fighters into military formations. Al Qaeda has reformed the notorious 055 Brigade, the Arab legion of al Qaeda fighters that was destroyed during the initial US assault in Afghanistan in late 2001. Additional al Qaeda brigades have been formed, intelligence officials informed The Long War Journal.

Foreign al Qaeda fighters have flocked to the Pakistani border regions. On July 23, Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani and his cabinet were told that more than 8,000 foreign fighters were operating in the tribal areas.


US attacks inside Pakistan in 2008:

• US airstrike killed five al Qaeda operatives in North Waziristan,
Sept. 5, 2008
• Report: US airstrike kills four in North Waziristan,
Sept. 4, 2008
• Pakistanis claim US helicopter-borne forces assaulted village in South Waziristan,
Sept. 3, 2008
• US hits al Qaeda safe house in North Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008
• Five killed in al Qaeda safe house strike in South Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008
• Al Qaeda safe house targeted in South Waziristan strike,
Aug. 20, 2008
• Cross-border strike targets one of the Taliban's 157 training camps in Pakistan's northwest,
Aug. 13, 2008
• Six killed in strike in South Waziristan,
July 28, 2008
• Senior Algerian al Qaeda operative killed in May 14 strike inside Pakistan,
May 24, 2008
• Missile strike kills 20 in South Waziristan,
March 16, 2008
• Unprecedented Coalition strike nails the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
March 13, 2008
• Missile strike on al Qaeda meeting in South Waziristan kills 13,
Feb. 28, 2008
• Senior al Qaeda leader Abu Laith al Libi killed in North Waziristan,
Jan. 31, 2008

For more information on the Haqqani family, see:

• The Haqqani Network: Reign of terror, Aug. 2, 2008
• Targeting Taliban commander Siraj Haqqani, Oct. 20, 2007

 
Basically its the Khyber Pass supply route thats cut off at the moment.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C09%5C06%5Cstory_6-9-2008_pg1_1

Pakistan stops NATO supplies

* Khyber Agency PA says Torkham Highway closed due to Taliban threats to trucks
* Says decision not a reaction to US attacks

By Iqbal Khattak

PESHAWAR: Pakistan stopped supplies to the United States and NATO forces in Afghanistan through its western Torkham border on Friday, citing security concerns.

A senior official said the measure followed increasing Taliban threats to trucks carrying the supplies.

“All Afghanistan-bound supplies for the International Security Assistance Force have been stopped as the [Torkham] highway is vulnerable,” Khyber Agency Political Agent Tariq Hayat told Daily Times, dismissing the impression that the decision is a reaction to continued United States attacks in Waziristan.

“This decision has nothing to do with the situation in Waziristan or the US attacks. This is purely a security issue and we want no untoward incident to take place as far as supplies for ISAF are concerned.” The international Torkham Highway was closed for “vulnerable vehicles”, he said referring to trucks carrying ISAF supplies, and the supplies would resume after the highway was cleared.

The political agent did not say how long the highway would take to be cleared, but added that other traffic would be allowed on the road.

A senior border official at Torkham, 58 kilometres west of Peshawar, said the closure of the highway would also affect the US forces, which get fuel, food and other military supplies through Torkham crossing points.

The coalition forces also get supplies through the Chaman border in Balochistan, but the bulk of the supplies goes through Torkham – a shorter route for Kabul where the US and NATO forces are based.


 
Bit more info....

Fuel supply to Nato forces ‘suspended’
The government is reported to have decided to stop fuel supplies to Nato forces in Afghanistan via the Torkham highway with effect from Saturday.  “An order to this effect has come from Islamabad and the Frontier Corps has been asked to stop oil supplies to Nato forces forthwith,” a senior government official said.  Sources said the federal government did not cite any reason for the move, but the decision was apparently taken in the wake of the US ground and missile attacks in North and South Waziristan tribal regions....

Pakistan cuts supply lines to Nato forces
In a major development, the federal government on Friday announced disconnection of supply lines to the allied forces stationed in Afghanistan through Pakistan in an apparent reaction to a ground attack on a border village in South Waziristan agency by the Nato forces.  Political authorities of the Khyber Agency claimed to have received verbal directives to immediately halt transportation of all kinds of goods meant for the US-led Nato forces in Afghanistan for an indefinite period.  Authorities claimed the decision was taken in the wake of the growing unrest in the Khyber Agency that provides for the only ground link of the country to the war-torn Afghanistan. "Until now, drivers of the vehicles carrying goods meant for the foreign forces in Afghanistan were directed to reach the tribal agency between 7am to 10am, which were then escorted to the border town of Torkhum by the Khassadar force," the authorities told The News.  The authorities claimed that due to repeated attacks on the personnel of the Khassadar forces during the last one week and abduction of a few personnel, it had become difficult for the security forces to provide foolproof security to the supply lines.  Independent sources, however, claimed that the government feared retaliation by the tribesmen against a recent ground attack conducted by the Nato forces in Angoor Adda of the South Waziristan Agency that triggered condemnation from various quarters, including the government of Pakistan itself ....
 
Apparently, the closure was only temporary - shared with the usual disclaimer.

Pakistan reopens vital border crossing to NATO
Bill Roggio, Long War Journal, 7 Sept 08
Article link
Pakistan has reopened the vital Torkham border crossing point to NATO supply trucks destined for Afghanistan. The crossing point was closed late on Sept. 5, the same day the Pakistani military threatened to retaliate against the US for conducting attacks against the Taliban and al Qaeda inside Paksitan.

Pakistan's defense minister said the border closure was meant to show the US that it would not tolerate airstrikes and raids inside its borders, Daily Times reported.

"We have told them that we will take action and we have already taken action today," Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar said. "We have stopped the supply of oil and this will tell how serious we are."

The US has recently stepped up attacks against Taliban and al Qaeda safe houses and training camps inside Pakistan's tribal areas of North and South Waziristan over the last week. The US has conducts five strikes in the Waziristans in the past week, including a controversial helicopter assault in a village along the border.....


Still not ENTIRELY safe, though.....
The driver of an oil tanker was killed when a rocket hit his vehicle here on Sunday. According to police, armed men fired the rocket on the tanker carrying fuel for Nato forces deployed in Afghanistan.

The driver was killed while his companion was injured. A police officer confirmed that the assailants had targeted the tanker.

The Taliban have attacked and destroyed in the border town of Chaman several tankers carrying fuel for coalition forces in recent past. However, the Taliban have not claimed responsibility for the attack....
 
Seems every day the Pred's are in action. :)

http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Security/?id=1.0.2468786422

Miranshah, 8 Sept. (AKI) - More than 20 people were killed and several others were injured in a suspected missile attack by US drones in Pakistan near the Afghan border on Monday.

A religious school founded by Jalaluddin Haqqani, a Taliban leader, was the apparent target of the aerial attack in Miranshah, capital of the North Waziristan tribal region.

The attack was the fourth cross-border raid against Taliban targets carried out by coalition forces in Afghanistan in recent days and is certain to provoke fierce debate in Pakistan.

According to Pakistan's Geo News network, sources said that US drones fired ten guided missiles at the home and madrassa run by the Taliban commander in Dandi Darpakheil area near Miranshah.

The son of Haqqani said that his father was not in the area at the time of the attack but other family members were among the victims.

Women and children were reportedly killed in the attack, while up to 20 others who were injured in the attack were ferried to Miranshah's main hospital.

Haqqani is a veteran commander of the US-backed Afghan war against the Soviet invasion and is reported to have links to Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.

On Wednesday US commandos carried out a ground assault in nearby South Waziristan in what was the first known incursion into Pakistan by US troops since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

Local officials said 20 people, including women and children, were killed in that attack.
 
If they keep this up, pretty soon all the AQ and TB leaders will have to start sleeping in the woodshed or equivalent.....
 
           One could only hope that we could get all there leadership ( AQ and TB ) .   Send a clear message  that there kind of behaviour will not be tolerated or go unpunished .
 
http://www.nysun.com/foreign/american-raids-penetrating-pakistan/85460/

WASHINGTON — American military forces are stepping up cross-border ground attacks into Pakistan from Afghanistan on the eve of the seventh anniversary of the attacks of September 11, 2001.

In the last two weeks, the military has begun launching ground assaults in the Pakistani border provinces known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, American intelligence and military officials said. The region is believed by American and Pakistani intelligence to be hosting the leadership of Al Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden.

While American special forces and military contractors have conducted raids in Pakistan, such actions were rare and required Cabinet-level approval. In July, the leadership of Central Command, which oversees the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, was given the sole authority to approve ground assaults in Pakistan. Late last month, the American military began launching ground attacks in the country on a near daily basis, depending on local conditions and intelligence, according to a military official who requested anonymity.

The escalation in Pakistan is due in part to the incoming leader of Central Command, General David Petraeus, who has been credited with changing the course of the Iraq war and is said to have the full trust of President Bush. Before formally taking the reins at Central Command, General Petraeus began meeting in June with Pakistani political leaders to develop an effective strategy for combating Al Qaeda in the border provinces.

Most important for the Bush administration, however, has been the political implosion in Islamabad since the resignation of America's longtime ally, President Musharraf.

"With Musharraf gone, the policy of self-deterrence is now gone," a former senior counterterrorism official for both the Clinton and Bush national security councils, Roger Cressey, said. "We would deter ourselves from doing anything for fear that any action would destabilize Musharraf."

"The other point here is the brazenness and frequency of Taliban-led raids really required U.S. forces to be aggressive," he said. "I think this is less about getting bin Laden than it is about responding to the Taliban."

A spokeswoman for Central Command declined to comment for this article.

The ground presence of American forces also has led to more air attacks in the Pakistani border provinces. Yesterday a Predator drone aircraft fired missiles into a small town in the province of North Waziristan, killing at least nine people, according to the Associated Press. The target was a senior Taliban leader, Jalaluddin Haqqani, who was believed to be living in the religious school struck by the missile. Mr. Haqqani escaped the attack, but three other Arab Al Qaeda deputies at the scene were killed, Agence France-Presse reported.

The use of Predator drone attacks in Pakistan has been a part of American policy since the beginning of the war on terrorism. The attacks, often launched from Afghanistan, have not been acknowledged publicly by American officials, and the Pakistani government has said the attacks are part of its own counterinsurgency efforts. But America's intelligence on Al Qaeda in the Pakistani border provinces has been hindered by the lack of the kind of tribal allies that proved to be such a boon to the war effort in Iraq, reducing the effectiveness of the air war against the group. Many potential tribal allies in the Pashtun provinces on the border have been slain by Al Qaeda's leadership to send a message to other tribal leaders who might consider cooperation with America and NATO.

The targeting intelligence so far has been, according to one American intelligence official, "shots in the dark." The official, however, said ground operations in Pakistan at least offer the prospect of refining targets, so that missiles fired from the air would hit Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders.

Another factor in the escalation against Al Qaeda may be Mr. Bush's desire to secure a legacy and capture Mr. bin Laden or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.

"There are all kinds of initiatives at work here, such as the end of the Bush administration," the director of a consortium of university think tanks in Washington, the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, Yonah Alexander, said. "What better way to score a victory, in terms of getting bin Laden or Zawahri?"

Both Senator Obama and Senator McCain have highlighted the front in Afghanistan on the campaign trail. As early as 2007, Mr. Obama called for bringing troops home from Iraq and sending more of them to Afghanistan. In July, Mr. McCain called for an Afghanistan "surge" of troops, similar to the successful troop surge he advocated for in Iraq. Both senators will be participating in a joint event in New York City to commemorate the seven-year anniversary of the September 11 attacks.


 
The New York Times Magazine had an excellent piece this past weekend on the Fronteir Areas of Pakistan.  The reality on the ground does not necessarily correspond to the claims of various political leaders.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7627135.stm

The hotel is on fire

A bomb attack has hit the Marriott Hotel in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, killing at least 40 people.

The BBC's Barbara Plett who is at the scene says the blast created a 20ft (6m) deep crater, and destroyed the entire front section of the hotel.

She says the building is engulfed in flames, and rescue workers are carrying out bloodied victims and bodies.

Police say the blast occurred as a car approached the hotel, and that it was a suspected suicide attack.

Police estimate that the blast was caused by more than a tonne of explosives.

Heavy security

Our correspondent says that the centre of the blast was at the front of the building close to the area where security checks are carried out

She says that about two-thirds of the 290-room hotel is on fire, and the wounded and dead are still being brought out, on stretchers or wrapped in sheets.

There are unconfirmed reports of people being trapped inside the building.

Ambulances and police have rushed to the scene.

A hotel employee, Mohammad Sultan, said he was in the reception when something exploded, forcing him to the ground.

"I don't understand what it was, but it was like the world is finished," he told the Associated Press news agency.

There are reports that the explosion brought down the ceiling of the banquet hall, where some 300 people were sharing a meal to break the fast during the holy month of Ramadan.

The Marriott is located near government buildings and diplomatic missions. Security there is tight, with guests and vehicles subject to checks.

The hotel is popular with foreigners visiting Pakistan or members of the expat community, and has previously been the target of militants.

Last year a suicide bomber killed himself and one other in an attack at the hotel.

Insurgency

The bomb attack comes just hours after Pakistan's newly installed President, Asif Ali Zardari, said he would not allow Pakistan's territory to be violated by terrorists or foreign powers fighting them.

In his first speech to MPs since he replaced Pervez Musharraf in August, he vowed instead to "root out terrorism and extremism wherever and whenever they may rear their ugly heads".

He was speaking in Islamabad, just several hundred metres to the east of the Marriott.

Pakistan has been a key ally of the US in its "war on terror", but relations have become strained over tactics.

In recent months, Pakistan has voiced growing disquiet over US raids targeting militants in its territory, launched from neighbouring Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda and Taleban militants based in Pakistan's north-west tribal region have repeatedly carried out attacks across the border in Afghanistan.

Militants have also carried out waves of attacks in Pakistan in recent years.

 
tomahawk6 said:
...
The bomb attack comes just hours after Pakistan's newly installed President, Asif Ali Zardari, said he would not allow Pakistan's territory to be violated by terrorists or foreign powers fighting them.

In his first speech to MPs since he replaced Pervez Musharraf in August, he vowed instead to "root out terrorism and extremism wherever and whenever they may rear their ugly heads".

Well, if this terrorist attack isn't the swift boot in the ass that Pakistan required to really start "doing" instead of "saying" --- nothing will be.
 
My bet is nothing is enough.

You have to understand that all Pakistan really can do as a government is pay lip service and allow under the table actions in the lawless frontier. They risk public revolt should they do anything else. Honestly I am surprised they haven't been more strong in their condemnation of "overt" western strikes into the border region as it is.
 
BulletMagnet said:
My bet is nothing is enough.

You have to understand that all Pakistan really can do as a government is pay lip service and allow under the table actions in the lawless frontier. They rick public revolt should they do anything else. Honestly I am surprised they haven't been more strong in their condemnation of "overt" western strikes into there border region as it is.

Musharraf danced around most of these issues just enough to get away with it. Even then there were numerous assassination attempts on him. The new guy is either gonna have a short career, or learn to be a quick learner....

BM is dead on....in Pakistan you are a target no matter which way you go...
 
The civilian leadership of Pakistan just isnt prepared to deal with their extremist citizenry,not to mention the lack of control of the border areas. The military and security forces are divided. We better dust off Plan B - you know just in case. ;)
 
3450 est kg blast http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/world/asia/21islamabad.html

Crater analysis ref http://www.amcaonline.org.ar/ojs/index.php/mc/article/viewFile/713/675

I extrapolated the table 5 figures with EXCEL to get the possible charge based on 40 foot crater and you can see how deep it is in the NYT Ref

    Diameter
  Kg TNT Diameter Feet
Reference 50 2 6
Reference 100 2 7
Reference 150 2 8
Reference 200 2 8
Reference 250 2 8
Reference 300 3 9
Reference 350 3 10
Reference 400 3 10
Reference 500 3 10
Extrapolated via EXCEL 522 3 11
Extrapolated via EXCEL 576 4 12
Extrapolated via EXCEL 629 4 12
Extrapolated via EXCEL 682 4 13
Extrapolated via EXCEL 736 4 13
Extrapolated via EXCEL 789 4 14
Extrapolated via EXCEL 842 4 14
Extrapolated via EXCEL 896 5 15
Extrapolated via EXCEL 949 5 15
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1002 5 16
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1056 5 16
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1109 5 17
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1162 5 17
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1216 5 18
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1269 6 19
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1322 6 19
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1376 6 20
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1429 6 20
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1482 6 21
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1536 6 21
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1589 7 22
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1642 7 22
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1696 7 23
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1749 7 23
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1802 7 24
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1856 7 24
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1909 8 25
Extrapolated via EXCEL 1962 8 25
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2016 8 26
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2069 8 27
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2122 8 27
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2176 8 28
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2229 9 28
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2282 9 29
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2336 9 29
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2389 9 30
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2442 9 30
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2496 9 31
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2549 10 31
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2602 10 32
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2656 10 32
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2709 10 33
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2762 10 33
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2816 10 34
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2869 11 34
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2922 11 35
Extrapolated via EXCEL 2976 11 36
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3029 11 36
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3082 11 37
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3136 11 37
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3189 11 38
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3242 12 38
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3296 12 39
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3349 12 39
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3402 12 40
Extrapolated via EXCEL 3456 12 40

 
Big bomb for sure. The location of the hotel is close to many government buildings so the taliban/aq were sending a strong message to the government. I wonder if more "messages" are forthcoming ?
 
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