High Speed Train Coming?-split from boosting Canada’s military spending"

[Brad Sallows]

This is literally what the design contract is for. You can't answer any of these questions without actually developing a properly detailed proposal. And they can't get those details without actually designing a route, siting stations, look at land assembly, etc. This is not a construction contract. It's a design contract. They will present options to the government at the end, including non-government financing (that's why CDPQ Infra is there), and the government can then decide what they want to go ahead with. Including not building anything.

Rail transit in North America is typically a sh!t-show (cost-wise), and high-speed rail is the worst of the lot. We don't have the population densities the US does, and they produce plenty of bad examples.

 

[ytz]

It’s a fucking bribe to Ontario and Quebec. No more, no less.

Or.... Hear me out. The Feds overtax everyone and this is one way to give back. They also bought and home built a $30+B pipeline to support an economy of 4.5M people. $80B for the HSR catchment combined population of 14M is on par. And just like the pipeline costs will be be recouped over decades.

 

[ytz]

Rail transit in North America is typically a sh!t-show (cost-wise), and high-speed rail is the worst of the lot. We don't have the population densities the US does, and they produce plenty of bad examples.

Good thing we're not following the American example then and literally bought in one of the OGs of High Speed Rail. You need to look up who SNCF and Systra are.

Most of the public is clueless. But Canada is having a weird moment in public transit where the agencies are all bringing in European experts and basically handing over the keys and cheques and simply letting them develop. This is exactly what Metrolinx is doing with GO Rail in Toronto. It's one of the largest rail projects in the continent. It's DeutscheBahn that is leading it. And they are looking to transform GO in something like German S-Bahn or French RER. They can't shut down GO to do this. So it will take a decade to complete. But they've been doing precursor work now for about 10 years.

The government is basically pledging to do exactly the same with VIA. It's not just High Speed Rail. All Corridor services will be handed over to the HSR developer so that there are coordinated services. In essence, today's services will be the equivalent of all stop services and HSR will be their express services.

 

[quadrapiper]

Good thing we're not following the American example then and literally bought in one of the OGs of High Speed Rail. You need to look up who SNCF and Systra are.

Most of the public is clueless. But Canada is having a weird moment in public transit where the agencies are all bringing in European experts and basically handing over the keys and cheques and simply letting them develop. This is exactly what Metrolinx is doing with GO Rail in Toronto. It's one of the largest rail projects in the continent. It's DeutscheBahn that is leading it. And they are looking to transform GO in something like German S-Bahn or French RER. They can't shut down GO to do this. So it will take a decade to complete. But they've been doing precursor work now for about 10 years.

The government is basically pledging to do exactly the same with VIA. It's not just High Speed Rail. All Corridor services will be handed over to the HSR developer so that there are coordinated services. In essence, today's services will be the equivalent of all stop services and HSR will be their express services.

Hope that attitude carries on and makes it across the Rockies!

 

[quadrapiper]

Amen to that. Speaking of semis, the Belgians at one time had freight engines running on their tram lines. You see a number of industrial buildings that have the remnants of tracks leading into the building. An engine would pick up a goods wagon from the shunting yard and deliver it the destination warehouse or factory. Intent was to eliminate truck traffic downtown and to free up road space. Eventually the system was disbanded but struck me as being a good idea in today's pollution conscious world

I think there's some European tram services that run freight/parcel cars, too.

Victoria's ripe for tram/streetcar service. Even an Ogden Point to Store Street tourist hauler would be a good start.

 

[PrairieFella]

Good thing we're not following the American example then and literally bought in one of the OGs of High Speed Rail. You need to look up who SNCF and Systra are.

Most of the public is clueless. But Canada is having a weird moment in public transit where the agencies are all bringing in European experts and basically handing over the keys and cheques and simply letting them develop. This is exactly what Metrolinx is doing with GO Rail in Toronto. It's one of the largest rail projects in the continent. It's DeutscheBahn that is leading it. And they are looking to transform GO in something like German S-Bahn or French RER. They can't shut down GO to do this. So it will take a decade to complete. But they've been doing precursor work now for about 10 years.

The government is basically pledging to do exactly the same with VIA. It's not just High Speed Rail. All Corridor services will be handed over to the HSR developer so that there are coordinated services. In essence, today's services will be the equivalent of all stop services and HSR will be their express services.

God that would be amazing if it was like the S-Bahn. It's so bloody seamless. I rode it in Munich last fall, amazing and convenient service. Following the USA is literally the opposite of what we should be doing, they're basically irredeemably car dependent and its kept that way on purpose.

 

[ytz]

God that would be amazing if it was like the S-Bahn. It's so bloody seamless. I rode it in Munich last fall, amazing and convenient service. Following the USA is literally the opposite of what we should be doing, they're basically irredeemably car dependent and its kept that way on purpose.

Yeah. Unless you're a transit nerd, you aren't following this and have no idea. The project also survived a change in government in Ontario from Liberal to Conservative. And the latter actually got more ambitious with the goals. If you want to see an explainer, here's transit nerd Recce Martin:

And this is actually what inspired the model the feds picked for HSR. It's the exact same idea. Turn over existing services. Give them a cheque. Give them free reign to achieve the goal.

 

[ytz]

Hope that attitude carries on and makes it across the Rockies!

Nothing stopping BC from making similar moves. Vancouver has semi-decent transit (by Canadian standards). But it's weirdly not enough given the poor road networks in the Lower Mainland.

I think there's some European tram services that run freight/parcel cars, too.

France famously had a high speed postal train:

SNCF TGV La Poste - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[PPCLI Guy]

This is a very informative thread, and I learned a lot about feasability etc.

I love the train, and take VIA 1 whenever going from Ottawa to TO, KTown, or Mtl - I love the service and the legroom. So I am sold on the idea of rail travel.

I am not at all sold on the highest cost of all that Canadians will pay for HSR or HFR - the very cost that the liberals (indeed Canadian politicians of all stripes as well as DND procuremnt) seem unable to fathom, or are willfully ignoring.

And that is the opportunity cost. What are we not investing in IOT pay for HFR / HSR rail? Defence of our nation? Border security? Refugee / immigrant services?

In the real world (ie not the Laurentian Elite finger-wagging performative and breathless world of Trudeau and the Stepford Wives or Carney et al for that matter) there is a finite amount of resources (human, financial, social politicl etc capital), and investment in one area necessarily means not investing in others.

Politicians know that deep down, but would like to keep that fact buried deep down, because otherwise they would have to make comprehensive plans that actively consider opportunity cost.

We remain a country that refuses to make hard decisions, and to pick winners and losers.

And hence we are losers ourselves.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Good thing we're not following the American example then and literally bought in one of the OGs of High Speed Rail. You need to look up who SNCF and Systra are.

Most of the public is clueless. But Canada is having a weird moment in public transit where the agencies are all bringing in European experts and basically handing over the keys and cheques and simply letting them develop. This is exactly what Metrolinx is doing with GO Rail in Toronto. It's one of the largest rail projects in the continent. It's DeutscheBahn that is leading it. And they are looking to transform GO in something like German S-Bahn or French RER. They can't shut down GO to do this. So it will take a decade to complete. But they've been doing precursor work now for about 10 years.

The government is basically pledging to do exactly the same with VIA. It's not just High Speed Rail. All Corridor services will be handed over to the HSR developer so that there are coordinated services. In essence, today's services will be the equivalent of all stop services and HSR will be their express services.

What's with Canadians bringing in European 'expertise' to have them dictate guidance to us?

The Metrolinx extension/expansion is being run like garbage and it's been continuously pushed back, ONExpress was supposed to take control in January and it's been pushed back indefinitely from my understanding. Some RUMINT that the Consortium you mentioned may be going down the drain and it's a sinking ship. I was warned off by some Colleagues about looking for work with that group.

I've seen plenty of examples of Europeans trying to replicate what they do in Europe elsewhere and it failing miserably. Some fairly recent examples of Infrastructure projects gone awry in developing Countries as well.

These usually get fixed by the Chinese

 

[FSTO]

YTZ, I’m not enough of a civil engineer to properly assess the proposal. But, we’ve been studying this idea all of my life (b:1961) and it always seems to stop at the design level. I’ve got a good 25 years left on this rock and I’d really really would love a HSR in Canada before I cross the bar.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

This is a very informative thread, and I learned a lot about feasability etc.

I love the train, and take VIA 1 whenever going from Ottawa to TO, KTown, or Mtl - I love the service and the legroom. So I am sold on the idea of rail travel.

I am not at all sold on the highest cost of all that Canadians will pay for HSR or HFR - the very cost that the liberals (indeed Canadian politicians of all stripes as well as DND procuremnt) seem unable to fathom, or are willfully ignoring.

And that is the opportunity cost. What are we not investing in IOT pay for HFR / HSR rail? Defence of our nation? Border security? Refugee / immigrant services?

In the real world (ie not the Laurentian Elite finger-wagging performative and breathless world of Trudeau and the Stepford Wives or Carney et al for that matter) there is a finite amount of resources (human, financial, social politicl etc capital), and investment in one area necessarily means not investing in others.

Politicians know that deep down, but would like to keep that fact buried deep down, because otherwise they would have to make comprehensive plans that actively consider opportunity cost.

We remain a country that refuses to make hard decisions, and to pick winners and losers.

And hence we are losers ourselves.

Exactly.

This has become a vanity project, nothing more.

As I said elsewhere, Canada should be improving what it has already before investing in something like HSR.

We don't need HSR, what we need is 'High-Performance Rail'.

• Better on-time performance
• More reliable service
• Better onboard amenities
• All-weather performance
• Less frequent service interruptions

High-performance rail service is a solid intercity solution for Canada

The U.S., unlike Canada, keeps expanding train service. Amtrak’s successful regional trains offer a model for an effective intercity train network.

policyoptions.irpp.org

All of this is achievable for a fraction of the price of what it will cost for HSR. Amtrak's regional corridor service is what we should be emulating here in Canada. Amtrak is pretty great now and it's a cheap and reliable way to travel around, especially in the Northeast.

 

[ytz]

YTZ, I’m not enough of a civil engineer to properly assess the proposal. But, we’ve been studying this idea all of my life (b:1961) and it always seems to stop at the design level. I’ve got a good 25 years left on this rock and I’d really really would love a HSR in Canada before I cross the bar.

It has literally never reached the design level. A study of a few pages is not design. An engineer should know that. They'll be doing actual design and actual costing now. When they are done we can actually decide if it's worthwhile. But it'll be the first time an actual design is presented. And not just some overview and ROME based on looking at Google Maps, which is literally what the the last two studies were.

 

[ytz]

What's with Canadians bringing in European 'expertise' to have them dictate guidance to us?

The Metrolinx extension/expansion is being run like garbage and it's been continuously pushed back, ONExpress was supposed to take control in January and it's been pushed back indefinitely from my understanding. Some RUMINT that the Consortium you mentioned may be going down the drain and it's a sinking ship. I was warned off by some Colleagues about looking for work with that group.

I've seen plenty of examples of Europeans trying to replicate what they do in Europe elsewhere and it failing miserably. Some fairly recent examples of Infrastructure projects gone awry in developing Countries as well.

These usually get fixed by the Chinese

Proof is in the pudding.

For all the supposed mismanagement, GO gets better every year. That's a lot more than can be said before Metrolinx existed. If all of this stuff, like the grade separation, and electrification and platform consolidation, etc was so easy why was it not done decades ago?

Personally, at this point, I will trust expertise from countries that actually know how to get shit built, than local talent who only bitch, whine and make excuses. Canadians haven't had a "can do" attitude outside oil pipelines in probably two generations.

 

[ytz]

Exactly.

This has become a vanity project, nothing more.

As I said elsewhere, Canada should be improving what it has already before investing in something like HSR.

We don't need HSR, what we need is 'High-Performance Rail'.

• Better on-time performance
• More reliable service
• Better onboard amenities
• All-weather performance
• Less frequent service interruptions

High-performance rail service is a solid intercity solution for Canada

The U.S., unlike Canada, keeps expanding train service. Amtrak’s successful regional trains offer a model for an effective intercity train network.

policyoptions.irpp.org

All of this is achievable for a fraction of the price of what it will cost for HSR. Amtrak's regional corridor service is what we should be emulating here in Canada. Amtrak is pretty great now and it's a cheap and reliable way to travel around, especially in the Northeast.

What's the cost difference between an HPR system and HSR if both are fully grade separated and electrified? I think you know better than anyone the three cost drivers in any rail project are:

1) Land assembly
2) Grade separation
3) Electrification


Whether it's High Frequency/Performance Rail or High Speed Rail or whatever is called is largely irrelevant. It's what is built that determines the cost.

Also, hilarious to see NDPesque ideas suddenly posted here. All these alternatives pushed by people who hate the idea of the Corridor being privatized with HSR.

Finally, what the government called High Frequency Rail was actually High Performance Rail. They shopped it around for years. Nobody was really interested, at least not at a price that actually offered decent value/return. Cause most people are smart enough to know that spending $10B to make a 6 hr train ride an hour shorter is not really worthwhile.

 

[ytz]

And that is the opportunity cost. What are we not investing in IOT pay for HFR / HSR rail? Defence of our nation? Border security? Refugee / immigrant services?

The opportunity cost isn't nearly as high as you imagine. For starters, this $4B design contract is actually $2B less than the supposed cost to get the tram in Ottawa to Kanata and Barrhaven. I don't think people understand how much transit construction actually costs these days.

Next, construction itself will be a decade long activity. So it's about 1% of federal spending annually over that time frame. The Feds spend about that much in various infrastructure grants in the two provinces in question already. So they could and should repurpose that to a project that actually improves the regional and national economy. I'd rather they spend on this than giving seniors sitting in million dollar homes free dental or funding bus purchases for local transit which really don't impact the national economy.

We remain a country that refuses to make hard decisions, and to pick winners and losers.

And hence we are losers ourselves.

And this is one of those hard decisions. Every country who has built HSR has had this debate. There's always excuses and other ideas to spend the money. They all eventually reach the same conclusion. That this is something you build to benefit those who follow. Not something for today.

I remember listening to a podcast interview with a French rail executive. And he was asked what struck him the most about the TGV. The tech? The speed? The economic impact? Nope. It was the way his son thought. His son had a girlfriend who lived 150 km away. And he said in his day, people would move or not have those relationships. But the younger generation didn't think of distance at all. They thought only of travel time. And for his son, his girlfriend wasn't 150 km away, she was a 45 min train ride away. I look forward to seeing my kids think of the Corridor this way.

 

[lenaitch]

Proof is in the pudding.

For all the supposed mismanagement, GO gets better every year. That's a lot more than can be said before Metrolinx existed. If all of this stuff, like the grade separation, and electrification and platform consolidation, etc was so easy why was it not done decades ago?

Personally, at this point, I will trust expertise from countries that actually know how to get shit built, than local talent who only bitch, whine and make excuses. Canadians haven't had a "can do" attitude outside oil pipelines in probably two generations.

I don't follow it that closely but I get the sense that Metolinx's (and, I suppose the Ontario government's) biggest problem is over-promising and under delivering. Along with that, they have far more balls in the air than they can seem to handle. An eager GTHA public sees disjointed sections of double track, or a widened tunnel, but no service improvement and gets cynical. When they see an LRT (Eglinton) that is years overdue, they get cynical. Why is the province building an in-city transit project? With all of the daily commuter services that need improving, why are they putting time and effort into service to Niagara Falls for tourism?

Ontario needs to sort out what Metrolinx should be. Currently, it's 'service area' is governed by legislation. Should all inter-city/within Ontario public transit be theirs? VIA's? Both? A lot of AMTRAK's regional services are co-funded by the affected states, which we don't have up here.

 

[ytz]

I don't follow it that closely but I get the sense that Metolinx's (and, I suppose the Ontario government's) biggest problem is over-promising and under delivering. Along with that, they have far more balls in the air than they can seem to handle. An eager GTHA public sees disjointed sections of double track, or a widened tunnel, but no service improvement and gets cynical. When they see an LRT (Eglinton) that is years overdue, they get cynical. Why is the province building an in-city transit project? With all of the daily commuter services that need improving, why are they putting time and effort into service to Niagara Falls for tourism?

Ontario needs to sort out what Metrolinx should be. Currently, it's 'service area' is governed by legislation. Should all inter-city/within Ontario public transit be theirs? VIA's? Both? A lot of AMTRAK's regional services are co-funded by the affected states, which we don't have up here.

No organization is perfect. Nor is any project. But they've run GO better than it was in the past. And every year service actually does get a little more frequent, a little bit faster, a little more coverage, etc.

Mostly I don't see the validity of the dick measuring and whining about the Europeans being here. I'd buy those arguments if Canadian rail talent had actually turned GO into a proper suburban rail system. They didn't. Now they are whining that Deutsche Bahn has been brought in, to take over? Bitch please....

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Having been to Germany and having ridden DB extensively, it was fun listening to the Germans bitch about DB service.

Ok-they left me in the lurch once with a missed connection due to construction. Otherwise, I thought they had a pretty sound rail system.

 

[Kirkhill]

The opportunity cost isn't nearly as high as you imagine. For starters, this $4B design contract is actually $2B less than the supposed cost to get the tram in Ottawa to Kanata and Barrhaven. I don't think people understand how much transit construction actually costs these days.

Next, construction itself will be a decade long activity. So it's about 1% of federal spending annually over that time frame. The Feds spend about that much in various infrastructure grants in the two provinces in question already. So they could and should repurpose that to a project that actually improves the regional and national economy. I'd rather they spend on this than giving seniors sitting in million dollar homes free dental or funding bus purchases for local transit which really don't impact the national economy.



And this is one of those hard decisions. Every country who has built HSR has had this debate. There's always excuses and other ideas to spend the money. They all eventually reach the same conclusion. That this is something you build to benefit those who follow. Not something for today.

I remember listening to a podcast interview with a French rail executive. And he was asked what struck him the most about the TGV. The tech? The speed? The economic impact? Nope. It was the way his son thought. His son had a girlfriend who lived 150 km away. And he said in his day, people would move or not have those relationships. But the younger generation didn't think of distance at all. They thought only of travel time. And for his son, his girlfriend wasn't 150 km away, she was a 45 min train ride away. I look forward to seeing my kids think of the Corridor this way.

You nailed it there. Transportation projects cost a fortune no matter where they are built. And they cost more in high density areas.

At the same time you need high density populations to justify the ridership necessary to pay off that investment.

The Windsor to Quebec City corridor is 1160 km long. It has the population of the Netherlands. The Netherlands is 300 km by 250 km.
To my mind that puts a lot more people within reach of any hubs.

In addition the Netherlands GDP per capita in 2024 was 65 000 USD. Ours was 54,000 USD. They are 20% richer than we are, which is ridiculous considering they not only lack resources of any kind but have to make the land they stand on and keep pumping to keep their feet dry.

400 years of pragmatism there.