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Global Warming/Climate Change Super Thread

Large scale storage of realiable energy has already been solved.

Water reservoirs,  coal beds, natural gas fields and uranium deposits are well know forms of potential energy that are plentiful, extensive, cost effective and technically well understood.

 
Ahem; I was speaking of large scale and economical means of storing generated electrical energy. If this was possible, then smaller generators could run a maximum efficiency, and power generated at off peak times could then be stored for release during peak hours.
 
Always worth repeating; the "facts" used by climate alarmists are worthless since they don't match actual observations nor can they be used to make actual predictions. An amateur scientist shows how science is done for real:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=9789

New E-Book: Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit — El Niño-Southern Oscillation -buffy willow-

    Dr. Pournelle,

    Mr. Bob Tisdale, amateur scientist and avid student of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has recently published in an e-book results from his studies. Its currently available as a downloadable .pdf and costs a measly $8.00. Quoting his web site, "Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables."

    Also from his web site, he states, "this book clearly illustrates and describes the following:

    1. Sea surface temperature data for the past 30 years show the global oceans have warmed. There is, however, no evidence the warming was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases in part or in whole; that is, the warming can be explained by natural ocean-atmosphere processes, primarily ENSO.

    2. The global oceans have not warmed as hindcast and projected by the climate models maintained in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives, which were used, and are being used, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their 4th and upcoming 5thAssessment Reports; in other words, the models cannot and do not simulate the warming rates or spatial patterns of the warming of the global oceans—even after decades of modeling efforts.

    3. Based on the preceding two points, the climate models in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives show no skill at being able to simulate how and why global surface temperatures warmed; that is, the climate models presented in the IPCC’s 4th and upcoming 5th Assessment Reports would provide little to no value as tools for projecting future climate change on global and regional levels."

    The book is written for an educated layman to understand.

    There is a preview of the book available here: http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/preview-of-who-turned-on-the-heat-v2.pdf

    You can order the book here: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/everything-you-every-wanted-to-know-about-el-nino-and-la-nina-2/. Once there, scroll down a page to find the actual transaction link and an explanation of the transaction process.

    For those who saw the description "amateur scientist" and thought "What can Tisdale possibly know?", I refer you to the "Climate Science" blog run by Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., retired professor of meteorology, where he writes, "Bob has contributed very important information on the documentation of ocean temperature patterns and trends, and this new book is a significant new addition to the climate science discussion." Here is the link: http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/09/04/announcement-bob-tisdales-new-book-who-turned-on-the-heat-the-unsuspected-global-warming-culprit-el-nino-southern-oscillation/.

    I knew Dr. Pielke nearly 20 years ago when I was obtaining my M.S. in Atmospheric Science from Colorado State University. He was on the staff then. I can’t recall if I took any courses from him, but I do recall him being a cordial person as well as being well grounded and fair minded. He’s probably forgotten more meteorology than I ever learned. :-)

    Jay Smith

I have been familiar with that hypothesis for a long time. It seems reasonable to me. I repeat, we know that there were dairy farms in Greenland in Viking times, and we also know that in that era growing seasons were longer across the entire Northern Hemisphere wherever we have records, from China to Sweden to Scotland to Naples. We also know that the Earth was much colder from the 15th to the 19th Centuries. Until climate theory accommodates those data points — Ah, well.
 
According to a story in the Daily Mail, the UK Met Office recently released a report (without issuing a press release) that states the world temperature has been stable since 1997. The usual suspects jump through hoops to show this is meaningless, but do suggest their climate models are inaccurate.

A link to the longish story is here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html
 
Old Sweat said:
dailymail.co.uk: Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago
Speaking, not as a scientist, but as someone riding a motorcycle yesterday.....there is no global warming -- dammit!    :cold:
 
Old Sweat said:
According to a story in the Daily Mail, the UK Met Office recently released a report (without issuing a press release) that states the world temperature has been stable since 1997. The usual suspects jump through hoops to show this is meaningless, but do suggest their climate models are inaccurate.

A link to the longish story is here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

I hope that you are not using the Daily mail as gospel.

Link to the actual study: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/HadCRUT4_accepted.pdf

Full graph is on page 53.

Figure7.png


 
Journeyman said:
Speaking, not as a scientist, but as someone riding a motorcycle yesterday.....there is no global warming -- dammit!    :cold:

Climate / weather can be differentiated as such: Climate is taking your untrained dog for a walk on a leash; weather is the dog at the end of the leash. The dog is constrained by the leash as to were he can go; be it forward (warmer) or back (colder). As you move forward the dog can go further forward, where it is warmer and not as far back where it is colder. Of course, the dog will also randomly go around you.
 
Well....uh.....thank you for that simplifying analogy.  :stars:

What you're saying is, as the dog moves back I should wear another layer and go for the lined gloves. Got it.  :nod:
 
And I thought obscure analogies were my specialty.  ???

AliG:

You're working overtime at giving my heart palpitations.

You show a graph that demonstrates a stable if fluctuating temperature between Confederation and World War 1.  It then demonstrates a "radical" upward slope of 0.8 degrees since WW1.    Perhaps we should thank Gavrilo Princip for speeding up the recovery from [urlhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/05/medieval-volcano-disaster-london-graves]this event[/url]:

A 4C temperature drop globally - instant starvation and death; wars, famines and plague; cats and dogs...; etc.

Good news about that volcano. It put paid to Genghis Khan's empire.

On the other hand, I understand that Genghis Khan wasn't such a bad chap after all:  all for women's rights, free trade, keeping a decent set of books....

By the way:  I thought you might prefer The Guardian as a reference.

Cheers,
 
Mad science rears its ugly head. No word if the ship's mate was named Igor...

On a more serious note, since the tools and techniques of modern science are widely available to anyone with the money (you can order custom DNA on line, for example) it is becoming harder to deal with this issue. Is this guy a crank or a genius? How do we tell, or for that matter, who "decides". With complex and chaotic systems, we also run into an inability to determine what, exactly, is happening, since end conditions are not determined in a linear fashion from initial conditions. There is also a matter of intent. If we recast this as an experiment to improve fisheries rather than "climate geoengineering" we might have the same actors and actions, but the measure of effectiveness is now based on the catch rather than some nebulous temperature data. One might get an entirely different perspective if the experiment had been announced in that fashion.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/science/earth/iron-dumping-experiment-in-pacific-alarms-marine-experts.html?_r=0

A Rogue Climate Experiment Outrages Scientists
By HENRY FOUNTAIN
Published: October 18, 2012 288 Comments
 
A California businessman chartered a fishing boat in July, loaded it with 100 tons of iron dust and cruised through Pacific waters off western Canada, spewing his cargo into the sea in an ecological experiment that has outraged scientists and government officials.

The entrepreneur, whose foray came to light only this week, even duped the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States into lending him ocean-monitoring buoys for the project.

Canada’s environment ministry says it is investigating the experiment, which was carried out with no government or scientific oversight. A spokesman said the ministry had warned the venture in advance that its plan would violate international agreements.

Marine scientists and other experts have assailed the experiment as unscientific, irresponsible and probably in violation of those agreements, which are intended to prevent tampering with ocean ecosystems under the guise of trying to fight the effects of climate change.

Though the environmental impact of the foray could well prove minimal, scientists said, it raises the specter of what they have long feared: rogue field experiments that might unintentionally put the environment at risk.

The entrepreneur, Russ George, calling it a “state-of-the-art study,” said his team scattered iron dust several hundred miles west of the islands of Haida Gwaii, in northern British Columbia, in exchange for $2.5 million from a native Canadian group.

The iron spawned the growth of enormous amounts of plankton, which Mr. George, a former fisheries and forestry worker, said might allow the project to meet one of its goals: aiding the recovery of the local salmon fishery for the native Haida.

Plankton absorbs carbon dioxide, the predominant greenhouse gas, and settles deep in the ocean when it dies, sequestering carbon. The Haida had hoped that by burying carbon, they could also sell so-called carbon offset credits to companies and make money.

Iron fertilization is contentious because it is associated with geoengineering, a set of proposed strategies for counteracting global warming through the deliberate manipulation of the environment. Many experts have argued that scientists should be researching such geoengineering techniques — like spewing compounds into the atmosphere to reflect more sunlight or using sophisticated machines to remove carbon dioxide from the air.

But tampering with the environment is risky, they say, so any experiments must be carried out responsibly and transparently, with the involvement of the scientific community and proper governance.

“Geoengineering is extremely controversial,” said Andrew Parker, a fellow at the Belfer Center at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. “There is a need to protect the environment while making sure safe and legitimate research can go ahead.”

Mark L. Wells, a marine scientist at the University of Maine, said that what Mr. George did “could be described as ocean dumping.”

Dr. Wells said it would be difficult for Mr. George to demonstrate what impact the iron had on the plankton and called it “extraordinarily unlikely” that Mr. George could prove that the experiment met the goal of permanently removing some carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

NOAA acknowledged that it had provided the project with 20 instrument-laden buoys that drift in the ocean for a year or more and measure water temperature, salinity and other characteristics. Such buoys are often sent out on what the agency calls “vessels of opportunity,” and the data they provide, uploaded to satellites, is publicly available.

But a spokesman said the agency had been “misled” by the group, which “did not disclose that it was going to discharge material into the ocean.”

The nature of Mr. George’s project was first reported this week in an article in The Guardian, a British newspaper, after it was revealed by the ETC Group, a watchdog group in Montreal that opposes geoengineering.

Mr. Parker, of Harvard’s Kennedy School, said it appeared that the project had contravened two international agreements on geoengineering, the London Convention on the dumping of wastes at sea and a moratorium declared by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity — as well as a set of principles developed at Oxford University on transparency, regulation and the need for public participation.

Mr. George, said that his experiment was not related to geoengineering, and that 100 tons was a negligible amount of iron compared to what naturally enters the oceans. “This is a community trying to maintain its livelihood,” he said of the Haida.

He said his team had collected a “golden mountain” of data on the plankton bloom. Mr. George, who described himself as chief scientist on the project and said he has training as a plant ecologist, refused to name any of the other scientists on the team.

Scientists who have been involved with sanctioned iron fertilization experiments strongly disputed Mr. George’s assertion about the quality of his experiment, saying that it was roughly 10 times bigger than any other but that the fishing boat used and the science team were clearly insufficient.

Victor Smetacek, an oceanographer with the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany who recently published an analysis of sanctioned fertilization research conducted in 2004 in the Southern Ocean, said Mr. George’s project would give a black eye to legitimate research.

“This kind of behavior is disastrous,” he said, describing Mr. George, with whom he had brief contact more than five years ago, as a “messing around, bumbling guy.”

Mr. George, 62, of Northern California, was previously in the public eye when, as chief executive of a company called Planktos, he proposed a similar iron-fertilization project, in the equatorial Pacific west of the Galápagos Islands, whose purpose was the sale of carbon offsets. Under cap-and-trade programs in various countries, polluters can offset their emissions of greenhouse gases by buying credits from projects that store carbon or otherwise mitigate global warming.

The project was canceled in 2008 after what his company called a “disinformation campaign” by environmentalists and others made it impossible to attract investors.

Mr. George said that during that period he was contacted by the Old Massett Village Council, one of two Haida groups on Haida Gwaii, about “wanting to do something about their fish,” which had suffered population declines.

But John Disney, the council’s economic development director, said he had worked with Mr. George on other projects before, including one to generate carbon credits by replacing alder forests on the islands with conifers. That project never came to fruition.

Mr. Disney defended the iron sprinkling project, saying that it had been approved by Old Massett’s villagers and cleared by the council’s lawyers.

He said at least seven Canadian government agencies were aware of the project. But a spokesman for Canada’s environment minister said Thursday that the salmon group was twice warned in advance that its plan violated international agreements Canada had signed that would prohibit an iron-seeding project with a commercial element, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported.

Mr. Disney also said that the marine science community, including researchers at the Wegener Institute in Germany, had known about the project.

But Mr. Smetacek disputed that as well. “I’ve had no contact with this guy on this,” he said, referring to Mr. George.

Ian Austen contributed reporting from Ottawa.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: October 20, 2012

An article on Friday about an unauthorized iron fertilization experiment in the Pacific Ocean misstated the year in which a sanctioned experiment that was analyzed in a recent journal article had been carried out. It was 2004, not 2009.
 
The Haida....

Stewards of the environment - Last Bastion in the Fight against Big Oil.
 
Turns out they borrowed the $2.5 million from the local credit union, which granted the loan on what is now seen to be a gruel thin business case related to selling carbon credits.

Should be interesting to see how it all works out given that they will have great difficulty quantifying the amount of carbon they claim to have reduced and the much greater difficulty of getting their carbon credits certified for sale on what remains of the international carbon market.

My only fear is that they have already cooked a deal with the BC Government to trade these credits through a provincial mechanism related to the BC Carbon tax.  Schools and hospitals in BC need to buy carbon credits every year and this would be a lovely political fit.



 
A USA Today article calls into question just how serious the LEED Certification program really is about being "Green" rather than a cash cow for the construction industry.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/10/24/green-building-leed-certification/1650517/
 
I live in Southwestern Ontario where wind turbines are sprouting like mushrooms. Until five months ago I considered them a sign of progress but now that there is one going up about 500m from my house I've started to pay more attention.

Its not a NIMBY issue (although I note that the people who favour these things all live in Toronto and they don't have any in their back yard), nor am I worried about health effects (I don't think there are any) but instead I wonder just how good these things are since the power coming from them is four times the cost of nuclear power and they run at less than 20% efficiency while nuclear is above 95%.

So what's my point?

I think I've grown weary of the debate between all the experts as to whether or not there is global warming or not and if there is it as a result of human activity or is nature just passing gas.

I've long ago decided that when there are numerous experts with widely varying opinions and you can't just use your common sense bulls**t meter to figure out who is right and who is wrong, then you should follow a conservative course of action until the evidence becomes clear.

For me this means that one shouldn't:

- spend billions of dollars on 'fashionable' alternative energy sources until they become a viable and cost effective

- one shouldn't create a multi trillion dollar industry based on 'trading' ethereal concepts like carbon credits

- one shouldn't any support tax regimes based on allegedly curing us of tenuous bad environmental habits (I should note that I do support regulatory processes that prohibit harming the environment [e.g. oil spills etc] and then punishing offenders) - Those of you who live in Ontario and are aware of the powers of Stewardship Ontario to set levies on the sale of items that they consider environmentally harmful will know what I'm talking about; and

- one shouldn't let schools run one-sided indoctrination programs but demand a more balanced approach - all to often these issues are achieving near cult/religious status in the educational institutions. Kids are as worried about the oncoming environmental apocalypse as we were in the fifties and sixties of the incoming Soviet missiles. Just as bad, anyone who even questions these Al Gore inspired mantras is immediately labelled as a denier or enemy of the 'inconvenient truth'.

:-\
 
FJAG said:
- one shouldn't let schools run one-sided indoctrination programs but demand a more balanced approach - all to often these issues are achieving near cult/religious status in the educational institutions. Kids are as worried about the oncoming environmental apocalypse as we were in the fifties and sixties of the incoming Soviet missiles. Just as bad, anyone who even questions these Al Gore inspired mantras is immediately labelled as a denier or enemy of the 'inconvenient truth'.

We should totally teach creationism alongside evolution too. It's just as much a controversy in the scientific community, after all (by that, I mean, not at all).

At least you're not a NIMBY on wind turbines. I'm sick of listening to people whining about how they look - that's honestly the major argument I'd seen people make against them. Frankly, anything that reduces dependence on burning coal is a good thing - and I say that living in Nova Scotia, which derives most of its electricity from coal-fired stations which are notoriously severe polluters. Even if you simply discard any discussion of climate change, coal is a nightmare, and "clean coal" touted by the industry is about as real as safe cigarettes. Coal, depending on which study you read, contributes to numbers of deaths in the USA that are four or five digit numbers.

The problem is that wind, while great and all, doesn't provide a base load as needed - nuclear and hydroelectric need to be expanded to do that. I get really sick of greeny types who oppose nuclear development when even after taking into account the two most catastrophic incidents in the history of nuclear energy (Chernobyl and Fukushima) have one less damage to health than coal in particular. I don't see what Ontario is waiting for on building at Darlington, and I'd love to see Maritime provinces (likely led by NB as they have some experience) pooling their resources to expand nuclear generation out here.

The problem I have is
 
Redeye said:
We should totally teach creationism alongside evolution too. It's just as much a controversy in the scientific community, after all (by that, I mean, not at all).

I actually had hoped the creationism issue had died with the Scopes Monkey Trial in 1925 and for the life of me can't see how any intelligent human being, much less legislatures, can make arguments in favour of teaching it as part of a curriculum in a public education system.

I don't think that there is any controversy within the scientific community re creationism v evolution. The controversy is between the scientific community on the one hand and the religious right (and some of their pseudo scientists) on the other.

And that's exactly my point. I don't think that the global warming etc issue has a sufficient level of consensus amongst the real scientific community to allow one to come down definitively on either side of the issue. That's why I don't favour extreme responses (and thereby very expensive) to curb a problem that may not actually really be there.

I must admit re Turbines that I do think they give a very progressive air to this region. I have five that went up about one and one half kilometres away (and that puts them well within view of my house). I thought it was quite neat when they went up. A lot of my neighbours hold a different view. Another one is at this moment being erected about to go up about a half kilometre away and I'm a bit more worried about that one. Not the health effects or the view or anything but there are many people out there who really hate these things and at this point I feel it may impact property values. There are some folks a bout five kilometres up the beach who have just started a lawsuit on that very basis. I think they'll lose but I'm keeping an eye on it.

I should point out my house is right on the shores of Lake Erie. My 'back yard' is a beach with an uninterrupted view all the way across the lake to Cleveland.  The turbines are for me on the other side of the house that's basically the 'front yard' and since I rarely sit out there to enjoy the views of the tobacco, tomato or corn fields I really am not bothered by these things. Again I get it that for many of my neighbours things are different and they have to view these things while enjoying the out doors.

Its kind of funny sometimes how its the little things that make a difference. Not far from us are turbines where they have set up horrendously ugly power lines along the road to take the generated power to the nearest grid. In our area all the powerlines are buried which makes the whole scheme look better. Similarly the five turbines that went in three years back were painted in five segments going up the pole. The bottom segment was a darkish green and then the shades got progressively lighter as they went up. The appearance made them blend in nicely with the treelines and the sky. On the other hand the new ones going in are a bright grey colour which stands out like a sore thumb against the ground and only blends towards the top at the sky level. Like I said. Its the little things that make a difference. I wish when Ontario was regulating this industry in the beginning, they would have given some of those issues a little attention.

Cheers
 
FJAG said:
I actually had hoped the creationism issue had died with the Scopes Monkey Trial in 1925 and for the life of me can't see how any intelligent human being, much less legislatures, can make arguments in favour of teaching it as part of a curriculum in a public education system.

Sadly, there's a lot of morons out there.

FJAG said:
I don't think that there is any controversy within the scientific community re creationism v evolution. The controversy is between the scientific community on the one hand and the religious right (and some of their pseudo scientists) on the other.

And that's exactly my point. I don't think that the global warming etc issue has a sufficient level of consensus amongst the real scientific community to allow one to come down definitively on either side of the issue. That's why I don't favour extreme responses (and thereby very expensive) to curb a problem that may not actually really be there.

There's a pretty solid consensus, actually. It's about as solid as the consensus on the theory of evolution. There are discussions and further research into the degree of anthropogenicity, but among scientists who study climate, there seems to be no real debate on the issue, no matter how much drivel is trotted out. Not to mention that there are related issues in terms of environmental protection and carbon emissions. What it still all comes back to to a large extent is that reducing them isn't really all that difficult. But that's a whole other issue. I've not seen what kids are being "indoctrinated" with, but I suspect it's the fairly simplistic concept of use scarce resources wisely and that sort of thing. I remember when we got told about how leaving lights on too long contributed to acid rain problems, and how the importance of things like recycling were stressed to us in school when we were kids. I suspect nagging from kids might have gotten parents to pay attention to such issues, so I don't see a real problem there.

FJAG said:
I must admit re Turbines that I do think they give a very progressive air to this region. I have five that went up about one and one half kilometres away (and that puts them well within view of my house). I thought it was quite neat when they went up. A lot of my neighbours hold a different view. Another one is at this moment being erected about to go up about a half kilometre away and I'm a bit more worried about that one. Not the health effects or the view or anything but there are many people out there who really hate these things and at this point I feel it may impact property values. There are some folks a bout five kilometres up the beach who have just started a lawsuit on that very basis. I think they'll lose but I'm keeping an eye on it.

I should point out my house is right on the shores of Lake Erie. My 'back yard' is a beach with an uninterrupted view all the way across the lake to Cleveland.  The turbines are for me on the other side of the house that's basically the 'front yard' and since I rarely sit out there to enjoy the views of the tobacco, tomato or corn fields I really am not bothered by these things. Again I get it that for many of my neighbours things are different and they have to view these things while enjoying the out doors.

Its kind of funny sometimes how its the little things that make a difference. Not far from us are turbines where they have set up horrendously ugly power lines along the road to take the generated power to the nearest grid. In our area all the powerlines are buried which makes the whole scheme look better. Similarly the five turbines that went in three years back were painted in five segments going up the pole. The bottom segment was a darkish green and then the shades got progressively lighter as they went up. The appearance made them blend in nicely with the treelines and the sky. On the other hand the new ones going in are a bright grey colour which stands out like a sore thumb against the ground and only blends towards the top at the sky level. Like I said. Its the little things that make a difference. I wish when Ontario was regulating this industry in the beginning, they would have given some of those issues a little attention.

Cheers

Burying transmission lines is atrociously expensive, but it does have an aesthetic appeal, for sure. It seems they did that with a recent installation of a lot of turbines near Amherst, NS. One thing that I was reading a few days ago was about the stress that wind power puts on grids because we're not at the point that there's any means of storage for electricity generated by renewables - and Germany is essentially the case study. I was amazed when I was there this summer a couple of times by the sheer number of turbines. They are everywhere it seems, and generate an enormous amount of electricity on windy days. The trick is that wildly shifting outputs mean that other sources must constantly be brought on to the grid and taken off, and there's stress from the changing outputs that's been torquing a lot of their neighbours, to whom Germany supplies power but basically takes advantage of their grids. They're apparently working to build a new system but it's not done yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/windmills-overload-east-europe-s-grid-risking-blackout-energy.html

It almost seems like they'll have to build a lot of pumped storage facilities and such things to contain potential energy until other methods come into use. Some of the things I've seen proposed are pretty interesting in terms of using mechanical storage systems - one, as I recall, basically used surplus off peak power to run a massive refrigeration system for liquid nitrogen, the expansion of which when turned off worked some kind of turbine system. It wasn't particularly efficient, but it was a novel idea, the kind of thing that research will stem from.
 
>We should totally teach creationism alongside evolution

They are not really "alongside" or in opposition or mutually inconsistent.  Evolution (natural selection) is about how things change.  Creation is about starting points.  Think about it carefully - there is no "theory" of a beginning of life in natural selection, only wild speculation as to how it might come about.

Whatever the "concensus" on climate change is, there are three levels of belief that are uncontroversial (the first two are trivially and obviously true):
- that climate is changing
- that things we do affect climate change
- that there has been a slight warming trend for the past two centuries

What there is not, except inside models with assumed multipliers, is a "theory" of how catastrophic warming can occur.  As with the question of the initial conditions from which evolution can proceed, there is only wild speculation.  Undertaking trillions of dollars of spending because a bunch of professors are fond of assuming the presence of a number > 1 may be the most rampantly foolish policy proposal of the past two decades.
 
Redeye said:
There's a pretty solid consensus, actually.

While there is much its not universal.

This attachment is a but one recent example of an article in the Wall Street Journal where sixteen scientists voiced their contrary opinions on the greenhouse gas controversy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html

This article (sorry its from the UK's Daily Mail) shows that over the last sixteen years there has been no discernible rise in the global aggregate temperature. In fact since record keeping began in the 1880s there has only been a rise of 0.75 degrees C. While there had been a slight rise from 1980 to to 1996 the forty years before had seen declining or stable temperatures.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

I know we could argue this back and forth for months on this without convincing the other but I think the 'contrary' opinion has been gathering more and more support. As I mentioned in my first post, I usually have a very good 'bulls**t' meter to tell me when the info I'm seeing should be given very little weight. Unfortunately for me the meter is swamped by too much pro and con on both sides which quite frankly leaves me sitting on the fence at this time.


Redeye said:
to whom Germany supplies power but basically takes advantage of their grids. They're apparently working to build a new system but it's not done yet.

I read about a year ago in Spiegel that they were exploring using the electric rail line grid as a transmission vehicle from the North to the South. Sounded interesting although the more recent news seems to be centring on four new transmission 'Autobahns'. Too bad. Sounded interesting: less expensive and no new transmission lines.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/switching-to-renewables-germany-explores-using-train-lines-as-a-power-grid-a-758698.html


Redeye said:
It almost seems like they'll have to build a lot of pumped storage facilities and such things to contain potential energy until other methods come into use.

Storage could be a big issue. I've been reading (albeit primarily in articles written by people with an axe to grind - the one below is sourced from the Ottawa Citizen) that Ontario has on occasion had to pay foreign customers to take excess power off our hands.  The problem appears to be power sources that can't be turned down and below anticipated domestic demand.

http://savethenorwesters.com/2011/08/17/ontario-power-generators-shell-out-35m-ytd-to-get-rid-of-surplus-juice/

Cheers
 
Brad Sallows said:
>We should totally teach creationism alongside evolution

They are not really "alongside" or in opposition or mutually inconsistent.  Evolution (natural selection) is about how things change.  Creation is about starting points.  Think about it carefully - there is no "theory" of a beginning of life in natural selection, only wild speculation as to how it might come about.

Whatever the "concensus" on climate change is, there are three levels of belief that are uncontroversial (the first two are trivially and obviously true):
- that climate is changing
- that things we do affect climate change
- that there has been a slight warming trend for the past two centuries

What there is not, except inside models with assumed multipliers, is a "theory" of how catastrophic warming can occur.  As with the question of the initial conditions from which evolution can proceed, there is only wild speculation.  Undertaking trillions of dollars of spending because a bunch of professors are fond of assuming the presence of a number > 1 may be the most rampantly foolish policy proposal of the past two decades.

I really am spending way too much time on this forum today.

Your 'creationism' point is either a subtle jibe or I'm reading too much into it.

I agree evolution and creation are two different things. We can either view creation from the creation of the universe -- 'Big Bang' or from the start of life -- 'primordial soup' both of which, to me, are the scientific (although admittedly theoretical) precursors to 'evolution'.

'Creationism' in the biblical sense has absolutely no scientific value whatsoever and if taught in school at all should only be taught as part of social studies in mythology amongst of the multitude of 'creationist' legends  that underlie the worlds' primitive societies. It should never be taught as a stand alone as a religious option to generally accepted scientific theories.

Your points on climate change fall well within my own beliefs.  I'll make one small but obvious addition. Those trillions of dollars come out of our pockets either as taxes or consumer charges.

Cheers again

Cheers.
 
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